Professor Taylor - Royal United Services Institute

1. 2 May 2012
The changing context of export controls
Professor Trevor Taylor
Emails:
TrevorTaylor@rusi.org
t.taylor@cranfield.ac.uk
Tel: +44 7818 444350

2. The purposes of export controls
 To restrict the accelerated acquisition of military capabilities by
other governments
 hostile
 unaligned/neutral
 friendly
 To direct and constrain the behaviour of other governments
 To promote domestic economic advantage

3. The current situation
 The weapons of mass effect dimension
 no major player with an interest in proliferation
 the disruption of the desperate (North Korea, Pakistan,
non-state actors)
 increasing problems of controlling ‘old’ knowledge
 Small arms
 multiple suppliers
 post-conflict supplies
 the black market
 Libyan anti-air missiles?

4. The current situation
 Advanced conventional arms
 governments involved have effective export control
systems
 US as the driving force and the centrality of ITAR
 For the UK
 The cost, inconvenience and periodic pettiness of
ITAR implementation
 The absence of reciprocity

5. The changing context
Exports’ Arms Trade US
growing Treaty bilateralism
importance drive
Operations European
not nuclear Conventional arms harmonisation
deterrence export controls & integration
90% of
Supply global R&D
chain ITAR-free as ‘civil’
implications as an Needs of
asset defence MNCs

6. Conclusion and the future
 Export controls, high level political attention and the US
political system
 The stagnation of reform efforts
 The readiness of the UK political class to build awareness of
and/or accept dependence on the US for military capability?

7. No clear sense: US or Europe

8. Clear policy ambition
 The Prime Minister in the US, Japan, Indonesia and Burma