Disha presentation on 22nd January in Pune by Dr.Prakash Rao of Symbiosis Institute of International Business

1. Demystifying Climate Change –
Mitigation and Adaptation
Prakash Rao
Associate Professor and Head,
Energy and Environment
Symbiosis Institute of International
Business
22 January 2014

2. Key questions
• Is the climate change phenomenon truly real ?
• How important or relevant is the impact of
climate change on ecosystems ?
• Do we have adequate information on causes
of climate change in India ?
• What are the possible adaptation responses to
in the face of adverse climate impacts ?
• Policy responses and implementation plans ?

3. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It
is fast becoming one of the defining facts of
economic development in the 21st century. It will
shape investment, technology deployment, and
human development around the world.
Scaling Up: Global Technology Deployment to Stabilize Emissions. Fred
Wellington, Rob Bradley, Britt Childs, Clay Rigdon, Jonathan Pershing,
WRI 2007

4. Global warming enhanced by
emissions of man-made gases
1/28/2014
Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

5. Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs):
Ozone (O3), Water Vapour (H2O), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),
Perfluorocarbons (PFC), Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), Hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs)
Anthropogenic GHGs:
Maximum contribution by Carbon Dioxide (CO2) –Industrial activity
Beside those Methane (CH4), - Agriculture
Perfluorocarbons (PFC), Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), Hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs) are also responsible

6. Much is known with certainty about global
warming
• Existence of natural greenhouse effect is
established beyond doubt
• Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are
increasing
• The temperature of the earth is increasing. 1998
the hottest in at least 1000 years.
• Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over past 100
years)
• Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for
centuries
1/28/2014

8. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Concentrations
400 ?

9. Keeping Emissions Safe

11. Potential impacts
• Many natural systems, being affected by regional climate
change, rise in average temperature
• Anthropogenic component of warming over the last three
decades has had a discernible influence on many physical
and biological systems .
• Effects of regional temperature increases on some
managed and human systems are emerging, although these
are more difficult to discern than those in natural systems
due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers

12. Potential impacts
• Impacts are very likely to increase - increased frequencies,
intensities of extreme weather events
• Extensive adaptation required to reduce vulnerability, but
there are barriers, limits and costs
• Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the
presence of other stresses e.g. development pathway
• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can
further diminish the risks associated with climate change

13. Risks to Life on Earth due to Climate Change
The Science:
The world may be close to a ‘tipping point’, more than two degrees C
of average warming could devastate ecosystems and economies
-Melting of Glaciers
-Melting of Polar ice caps
-Habitat loss for key species
-Depleting water resources
-Submergence of Islands
-Shift in distribution of pests and vector borne diseases

14. Global Impacts
•
662 million to 3 billion more people
at risk of water shortage
•
15-37 % of all species could be
driven extinct till 2050 if current
rate of emissions continue (Thomas
et al ,2004)
•
Agriculture landscapes , yield loss
•
43 % global forest changing to nonforest systems
•
25- 50 million people at risk due to
sea level rise, coastal flooding

15. Impacts in India
•
•
•
•
•
•
Agriculture
Coastal region
Himalayas
Forests
Health
Industry/Power

16. Impacts of Climate Change on natural ecosystems
Variability in
monsoons –
affecting crop
production
Himalayan
Glaciers melting
– Indus and
Ganga at Risk
• Possibility of Conflicts
• Increasing Incidence of Natural Calamities
• Increase in Human & Other life form stress
Sea level rise Relocation of
population
/Climate
Refugees
Erosion of
coastal areas

17. Climate change and water sector in India
• Likely to affect the overall hydrological cycle in
India
- More intense rainfall in lesser time/days
- Overall increase in precipitation
- Changes in glacial melt run off
- Increase in river run off, less ground water
recharge
- Increase in extreme weather events, flash
floods, droughts

18. Direct and indirect impacts
• Wetland quality , reduction in size of wetland
• Agricultural intensification and practices
• Changing river flows, water diversion
/withdrawal
• Extreme weather events
• Ground water recharge
• Invasive species

19. Impacts in Agriculture
•
Simulations using crop models
indicate a decrease in yield of crops
as temperature increases in different
parts of India
- 2°C increase , rice yields could
decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare
in the high yield areas
•
Major impacts on rain fed crops
- nearly 60% of cropland area
- poorest farmers practice rain fed
agriculture
•
The loss in farm-level net revenue
will range between 9 and 25% for a
temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

20. Impacts - Coastal Areas
• Extreme Weather Events
Natural Disasters like floods, sea
water ingress, submergence of
islands, species and habitat loss
• Bangladesh, Lakshadweep ,
Sundarbans are under the threat
of sea level rise & submergence
• Could create ecosystem
imbalance, introduction of new
species , range shifts for
ecosystem dependent species

21. Sea Level Rise
Effects of a 6-meter sea level rise are shown here for South Asia . Areas with
large river deltas of the Indus and Ganges will be severely affected. Island
nations like the Maldives, Tuvalu will become vulnerable as will extensive areas
of Indonesia and Bangladesh.
Source: Terrence Joyce, WHOI, Massachusetts

23. Tuvalu Island , South Pacific

24. Impacts on Forests
• Changes in Species distribution and
abundance:
– Reduced/no pollination due to
problematic seed dispersal
– Problems in seed germination and
seedling survival
•
Alteration in Succession
– Shift in dominance/abundance of
species
•
Biodiversity
– Poor regeneration/loss of genetic
variability
– Disturbance in ecosystem cycle

25. Impacts in Ecosystems
• Agricultural ecosystems in North India- temperature
shifts , insect pests
• Evergreen forests in Karnataka , NE Region - erratic
rainfall patterns
• Himalayan ecosystems in range states - potential loss
and change in land use (Glacial melt , land slides, soil
erosion, rising temperature, availability of suitable
habitat )
• Grasslands, desert ecosystems in Maharashtra ,
Rajasthan
– changing weather patterns, land use
• Coastal ecosystems - cyclones in West Bengal , Tamil
Nadu

26. The polar ice cap is melting

27. Impacts on birds – Some examples
Tawny eagle in Asia and Africa.
Small changes in precipitation is
likely to result in the bird’s decline
Wetland loss, disruption of food chain

28. Potential threats faced by Migratory bird
species worldwide
No. of
Species
Anthropogenic Impacts
No. of
Species
Reduced water tables
127
Hunting or persecution
137
Increased drought
frequency
Water tables and drought
84
Habitat loss
132
Human disturbance
76
Climate Change Impacts
(160)
Mismatch with prey
abundance
Sea level rise
73
Overgrazing
63
55
Agricultural intensification
22
Habitat shifts
52
Changes in prey range
50
Overgrazing and
intensification
Direct mortality
Increased storm frequency
20
Overfishing
42
No significant threat
35
Introduced species
30
No significant threats
59
Total No. of species
300
( Source : Climate Change and migratory species, BTO Research Report 14, 2005)
(70)
49
300

30. Future challenges for India
• Broad scale assessment of the resilience of critical
ecosystems to climate change
• Vulnerability assessments in selected ornithological
habitats through empirical, evidence and climate
modelling data
• Strengthen regional research capacity on impacts of
climate change on bird ecology
• Improved data collection networks for monitoring
birds
• Strengthen the National Action Plan on Climate Change
for focused regional research on the issue

31. IMPACTS ON POWER
• Perennial rivers – important source
for hydel power generation in
Himalaya
• Future plans to exploit more hydel
power through mini hydel projects
• Run-of-the river power plants are
getting popular, and seen as
environmentally friendly
• Energy security in question due to
reduced water flows in rivers
• Dependency on fossil fuel – leading to
increased GHG emissions

32. Where are the solutions ?

33. The climate problem is a
long-term problem
and will require
“thinking long term” to solve
1/28/2014

34. THE CLIMATE CHANGE BUSINESS
Various Approaches to Combat Climate Change:
• Measures towards reducing the overall Greenhouse Gas emission or reducing
the intensity of emission -Mitigation
• Increasing the resistance to impacts of climate change – Adaptation

35. Mitigation options
•
•
•
•
•
Renewable energy
Energy efficient technologies
Efficient industrial processes
Efficient transport systems
Preventing deforestation or
quite simply - Conserving our forests
• Waste management
• Sustainable agricultural practices
• Life style practices

36. The use of wind power is growing rapidly around
the world

37. Policy responses
• The scientific evidence of climate change has led to the growing public
concern
• In 1990 UNEP & WMO established an intergovernmental working group
called Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• 150 Countries met during 1990-91 and adopted the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• In 1997 at Kyoto, Japan, world adopted a Protocol (Kyoto Protocol) with a
commitment that developed countries will reduce their emission by 5.2 %
of 1990 levels
• India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (National Solar Mission,
National Mission Enhanced Energy Efficiency )

38. Thank You…….