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A Game-Changer for Latin America? Defining the
Region’s Shale Potential by Global Comparison
World Shale Oil & Gas: Latin America Summit
Buenos Aires, 5 September 2013
Robert F. Cekuta
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Energy Resources
U.S. Department of State
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Proved
Reserves
Unproved
Shale TRR
Unproved
Conventional
TRR
North America South America Orinoco Oil Sands ROW
Western Hemisphere O&G Resources: Abundant
but complex
Data source: EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources, 2013 (Orinoco and oil sands
figures from 2012 BP Statistical Review).
Natural Gas Resources Oil Resources
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Proved
Reserves
Unproved
Shale TRR
Unproved
Conventional
TRR
Quadrillion cubic feet Billion Barrels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Indonesia
Australia
Pakistan
India
China
South Africa
Morocco
Algeria
Western Europe
Ukraine
Baltics
Poland
Southern Cone
Venezuela/Colombia
Mexico
Canada
US
Trillion cubic feet
Possible Shale Impact on Global Gas Market
Key Assumptions
• Recoverable resources one-quarter of EIA estimates
• Environmental, regulatory, legal & policy measures in place
• Production ramp up similar to U.S. Barnett shale play
• Ultimate recovery per well & drilling rates similar to Barnett
U.S., Argentina, and other countries in the
Hemisphere among top holders of shale O&G
Source: EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale
gas resources (trillion cubic feet)
Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale
oil resources (billion barrels)
Drygasproductionbillioncubicmeters(bcm)
ProjectionsHistory
2011
U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Source
Nonassociated
onshore
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Nonassociated
offshore
Alaska
Tight gas
Shale gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
50%
34%
6%
6%
4%
22%
16%
9%
7%
7%
2%
25%
6%
5%
Source: EIA, AE0 2013
Projected U.S. Shale Gas Production, 2009-2035
0
4
8
12
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Trillion cubic feet
Production by well vintage
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
History
2005
Forecast
2013
Forecast
Rising U.S. shale gas supplies transform U.S.
import needs
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlooks 2005 and 2013
7
Billion cubic meters per annum
Evolution of U.S. Net LNG Imports: History and Forecasts
2012: 80 bcm
2025: 207 bcm
Net Imports
Net Exports
In 2005, net U.S. LNG imports
were expected to reach 83 bcm
by 2012. Instead, they fell to 4
bcm. EIA now projects the U.S.
will become a net LNG exporter.
Sharing Best Practices
Sustainable
Unconventional
Gas Development
Fiscal
Incentives
Reducing
Seismic
Impact
Community
Engagement
Overcoming
Infrastructure
Challenges
Protecting
Water
Quality
Water Supply
Management

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5 sep rfc buenos aries presentation

  • 1. A Game-Changer for Latin America? Defining the Region’s Shale Potential by Global Comparison World Shale Oil & Gas: Latin America Summit Buenos Aires, 5 September 2013 Robert F. Cekuta Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Bureau of Energy Resources U.S. Department of State
  • 2. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Proved Reserves Unproved Shale TRR Unproved Conventional TRR North America South America Orinoco Oil Sands ROW Western Hemisphere O&G Resources: Abundant but complex Data source: EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources, 2013 (Orinoco and oil sands figures from 2012 BP Statistical Review). Natural Gas Resources Oil Resources 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Proved Reserves Unproved Shale TRR Unproved Conventional TRR Quadrillion cubic feet Billion Barrels
  • 3. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Indonesia Australia Pakistan India China South Africa Morocco Algeria Western Europe Ukraine Baltics Poland Southern Cone Venezuela/Colombia Mexico Canada US Trillion cubic feet Possible Shale Impact on Global Gas Market Key Assumptions • Recoverable resources one-quarter of EIA estimates • Environmental, regulatory, legal & policy measures in place • Production ramp up similar to U.S. Barnett shale play • Ultimate recovery per well & drilling rates similar to Barnett
  • 4. U.S., Argentina, and other countries in the Hemisphere among top holders of shale O&G Source: EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale gas resources (trillion cubic feet) Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale oil resources (billion barrels)
  • 5. Drygasproductionbillioncubicmeters(bcm) ProjectionsHistory 2011 U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Source Nonassociated onshore Associated with oil Coalbed methane Nonassociated offshore Alaska Tight gas Shale gas 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 50% 34% 6% 6% 4% 22% 16% 9% 7% 7% 2% 25% 6% 5% Source: EIA, AE0 2013
  • 6. Projected U.S. Shale Gas Production, 2009-2035 0 4 8 12 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 Trillion cubic feet Production by well vintage
  • 7. -50 0 50 100 150 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 History 2005 Forecast 2013 Forecast Rising U.S. shale gas supplies transform U.S. import needs Sources: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlooks 2005 and 2013 7 Billion cubic meters per annum Evolution of U.S. Net LNG Imports: History and Forecasts 2012: 80 bcm 2025: 207 bcm Net Imports Net Exports In 2005, net U.S. LNG imports were expected to reach 83 bcm by 2012. Instead, they fell to 4 bcm. EIA now projects the U.S. will become a net LNG exporter.
  • 8. Sharing Best Practices Sustainable Unconventional Gas Development Fiscal Incentives Reducing Seismic Impact Community Engagement Overcoming Infrastructure Challenges Protecting Water Quality Water Supply Management