RMIA Presentation November 19 2008 A Futurist Perspective On Risk By Paul Higgins
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This was a presentation to the Risk Management Industry Association Conference in Perth on how to look a risks from a foresight perspective
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RMIA Presentation November 19 2008 A Futurist Perspective On Risk By Paul Higgins
- 1. A Futurist Perspective on Risk Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 012 3580, http//:www.emergentfutures.com RMIA Conference November 2008
- 2. Definitions How to Pick a Futurist Identify the Problems Avoid the Problems
- 3. “ Information is becoming ubiquitous and instantaneous. So what is ‘known’ is becoming a diminishing source of competitive advantage, and therefore successful futures will increasingly be forged through mastery of the unknown.” Eamon Kelly CEO Global Business Network Financial Times of London March 17, 2006
- 5. From: Garnaut Climate Change Review Draft Report June 2008
- 6. From: Owning the Right Risks by Kevin Buehler, Andrew Freeman and Ron Hulme. Harvard Business Review September 08
- 7. Foresight Capacity The capacity to think about the future and apply that thinking to strategy
- 8. Action without vision is a nightmare but vision without action is daydreaming
- 9. The Problems
- 10. YOU
- 11. Source: How Brains Make Up Their Minds by Walter J Freeman Rational Versus Emotional
- 14. No-one can predict the future
- 15. “ Prediction is used by managers who don’t want to spend their time on thinking about uncertainty” http://subbaraman.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/art-of-foresight/
- 16. Forecasting
- 17. Humans are marginally better than chimps at forecasting Philip E Tetlock – Expert Political Judgement - 2005
- 18. The Australian 28 th May 2008
- 19. There is a reason for this!!
- 21. 6 64
- 22. 45 3.5 trillion
- 23. There are other reasons for this!!!
- 25. Brain is hard wired
- 26. The Halo Effect www.surrealart.com/html/___suits.htm
- 28. Assessment by John Kay of Hamel and Prahalad’s Competing for the Future portfolio http://www.johnkay.com/strategy/437 Prediction – a dangerous business
- 31. Trend Faith
- 33. HOW you think is more important than WHAT you think!!!
- 35. So how do you avoid the problems? First admit you have a problem
- 36. Get multiple perspectives Be critical of forecasts Keep experts in their place Abstract data and stories Use methods to avoid early convergence Question Question Question
- 38. Complexity approaches to Strategy
- 39. Bring in Different Perspectives
- 40. Scenarios
- 41. YOU
- 42. Sensing Emergent Patterns Through Narrative Inquiry
- 43. Exploit other people’s mis- conceptions of risk
- 44. Some Advice
- 45. So to the two tests of a competent futurist
- 46. They are right more than just chance would allow
- 47. They can tell you a coherent, logically consistent and cogent story
- 48. Thank you Emergent Futures, Level 27, 101 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Ph 039 018 7917, Fax 039 012 3580, http//:www.emergentfutures.com [email_address]
Notas del editor
- A brief summary of what we are going to do today: Feel Free to interrupt and ask questions
- I don’t mean Greg but I do mean the human brain
- The human brain has evolved rather than been designed from scratch. Evolution does not have the luxury of going back and starting again. This means that for example we still carry around in our heads the basic brainstem from our ancient ancestors as well as a whole lot of structures that have developed over time from reptiles to mammals to humans. Therefore our brain works in strange and complicated ways that are important to understand if we are going to think better about the future.
- Tell the story about the experiments with brain energy drinks from this book
- Most people do not go back and look at their forecasts or get held to account on forecasts they have applied to others. Philip Tetlock , a social scientist performed the best forecasting experiment that I know of and the results of it are contained in this book (click to bring up the picture). What Tetlock did was to ask people to forecast certain complex events. He did ask for specific outcomes like the value of the Australian dollar in a year’s time which would have been impossible to answer. He asked questions like in 1988 “Will the soviet communist party have more, less or the same power as they do now” He also asked people to assign a confidence level to their forecast eg if they were absolutely certain then they allocated 100%. If they were just guessing then they assigned 33% as there were only three options so each one was equally likely in a guessing situation. Tetlock asked experts in the particular area of forecasting and also asked non experts who he felt were well informed across a range of subjects but not an expert in any particular subject. The forecasts were for 5 years out dn he repeated the experiments 3 times – over 15 years.
- If you take one thing away from today it is that no-one can predict the future and anyone that tells you they can is lying to you, lying to themselves or both at the same time. It is important to note that I am not talking about what the approximate population and demographic mix of (INSERT NAME OF CITY YOU ARE IN) in three years time although even that can be problematic. I am talking about events or outcomes that have multiple interacting factors. We will come back to this later.
- If you take one thing away from today it is that no-one can predict the future and anyone that tells you they can is lying to you, lying to themselves or both at the same time. It is important to note that I am not talking about what the approximate population and demographic mix of (INSERT NAME OF CITY YOU ARE IN) in three years time although even that can be problematic. I am talking about events or outcomes that have multiple interacting factors. We will come back to this later.
- Going to take the Ipod and play part of the interview with Marcus Barber with Jon Faine