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UNICEF & Anti-Vaccination Trends
Social Media Analytics to Save Lives
February 2013 prepared by Traxion
Meet the presenters




    Sebastian Majewski     Emily Chambliss
    United Nations         Traxion & Attention USA
    smajewski@unicef.org   echambliss@attentionusa.com
    @sebmaje               @emilychambliss

                                                         2
The need for social
 media research
Social media analytics is tackling real world problems.
 UNICEF vaccinations in the
 CEE-CIS region




                                                          4
Social media is a global phenomenon.




                                       5
Purpose: to better understand anti-
vaccination conversations & factors that
affect parental decisions in the CEE-CIS.



                                            6
To reach this goal, we developed questions to guide the
research.
 – Why parents are refusing vaccinations?
 – What are the concerns about vaccines?
 – What are their ideas/perceptions?
 – Who is influencing the discussion?
 – Which networks are being used?
 – Where are they located?
 – How to respond?




                                                      7
The monitoring approach

    Social media conversations offer the depth of qualitative
    research and the sample sizes of quantitative research in
    real time.

    – How do we detect digital smoke signals?




                                                                8
Research findings will have real world applications.




                                                       9
Important questions to keep in mind

    – How can we ensure ethical consideration regarding
      privacy?

    – What pieces of data are valid and useful to the
      research?

    – How do we apply this research in a greater
      context?



                                                          10
Social Media Research:
     Methodology
After meticulous coordination & planning…




  Research Questions:               Required Resources:
  –   Terms/phrases?                –   Social data analysts
  –   Languages?                    –   Non-English translators
  –   Timeframe?                    –   Tracx
  –   Social pages?                 –   Information
  –   Metrics?                      –   Time



                                                                  12
Using various types of metrics & data collection

                                           Sentiment
    Volume        Channels   Engagement    Analysis




                                                       13
We analyzed conversations from 22,000 people across
social media.
    From May to July 2012, 22,000 people participated in social media discussions
    about vaccination refusal in English, Russian, Romanian and Polish.




                                                                                    14
We structured the research into four phases.

  Phase 1                     Search Queries                 Language          Phase 3
  –   Identify goals          – UNICEF + Vaccines            – English         –   Extract & compile data
  –   Gather research         – WHO + Vaccines               – Polish          –   Quantitative & qualitative
  –   Identify topics         – CDC + Vaccines               – Russian             analyses
  –   Identify languages      – Anti-vaccination (general)   – Romanian        –   Research influencers
  –   Set up tracking                                                          –   Review & translate verbatim
                              Spotlight Pages                                      mentions
                              – UNICEF Networks: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
                              – Regional Pages: USA, Russia, Romania, Poland




  Phase 2                     Query Topics      –      Chemicals/Unna          Phase 4
  –   Scrub data              – Side effects           tural                   –   Gather insights from data
  –   Refine queries          – Efficacy        –      Western Plot                analyses
  –   Identify topics         – Unnecessary     –      Developmental           –   Synthesize non-English
  –   Add new queries to      – Religion/Ethics        disabilities                insights
      segment data by topic   – Distrust        –      Pakistan ban            –   Construct the final report
                                 Government/Ind                                –   Make strategic
                                 ustries                                           recommendations based on
                                                                                   key insights


                                                                                                                 15
The Global
Conversation
Young women drive the global anti-vaccination
conversation on Blogs & Facebook.
           Gender                            Age

                                       2%           2%
  9000                                 7%                  60+
                            Facebook                17%
  8000
                                       19%
                            Blog                           50 - 60
  7000
                                                    18%
  6000                      YouTube                        40 - 50
                                       26%
  5000                      Twitter                 24%
                                                           30 - 40
  4000
                            Forum
  3000
                                                           20 - 30
                            News       39%
  2000                                              35%
                            Other*                         10 - 20
  1000

    0                                  7%           3%
         Men        Women              Men         Women
                                                                     17
Anti-vaccination discussions typically occur in the US
on Blogs, Facebook, & Forums.
                                   Locations

       USA     82%

         UK    3%
                               Networks                  Sentiment
   Panama      3%
                               Tumblr YouTube
   Australia   2%
                        Twitter 3%      1%
    Canada     2%         5%                                 Positive
                      News
                                                               6%
   Germany             5%
               0.7%
                                                  Negitive
    Mexico     0.6%        Forum                   43%
                            14%            Blog
      India    0.6%                        47%                          Neutral
                                                                         51%
    Ireland    0.5%            Facebook
                                 25%
   Pakistan    0.4%


                                                                                  18
English is the most common language used to discuss
anti-vaccination followed by Polish & Russian.

      Anti-vaccination discussions   Non-English discussions

            Russian Romanian
              3%      1%                  Romanian
                                            8%     0%

            Polish
             8%


                                       Russian
                                        25%
                                                        Polish
                                                         67%
                        English
                         88%




                                                                 19
Blogs allow anti-vaccination discussions to reach outside countries & populations.

                        English                                              Russian
        USA      82%                                        Russia    65%
          UK      3%                                      Ukraine     15%
    Panama        3%                      Tumblr                                                Forum
                               YouTube                        USA     5%
                                            3%                                                    4%
   Australia     2%              1%                      Germany      5%
     Canada      2%       Forum
                            14%                       Netherlands     1%
   Germany      0.7%                        Blog
                       Twitter                            Belarus     1%                    Twitter
     Mexico     0.6%                        47%                                  News        24%
                         5%                            Kazakhstan     1%
       India    0.6%                                                              2%
                         News                                                                          Blog
     Ireland    0.5%               Facebook                 Latvia    1%
                          5%                                                     Facebook              65%
    Pakistan    0.4%                 25%               Azerbaijan     0.5%
                                                                                   25%
                                                       Uzbekistan     0.5%

                       Romanian                                                  Polish
  Romania                           Twitter Forum           Poland    71%
               74%                            0%
                                      0%                       USA
      USA      11%                                                    15%
                                     News Tumblr          Germany                           News
  Moldova                                                             4%                         YouTube
               9%           Facebook 6%      0%                                              1%
                                                      Netherlands     3%           Facebook        1%
  Germany      3%              8%
                                                                UK    2%             25%
     Italy     1%                                           France    1%
 Colombia      0.5%                                      Indonesia    0.4%
  Bulgaria     0.5%                                       Denmark     0.3%
                                           Blog     Czech Republic    0.3%                            Blog
  Portugal     0.5%
                                           86%                India   0.3%                            85%
       UK      0.5%

                                                                                                              20
Blogs, Forums, & Facebook facilitate the most engaging
discussions about anti-vaccination.

                                                                          Posts
    40000

    35000                                                                 Interactions
    30000

    25000

    20000

    15000

    10000

    5000

       0
            Blog   News   Forum   Facebook   Twitter   Reddit   YouTube   Tumblr    Other*
                                                                                             21
Opportunities exist for UNICEF to join organic anti-
vaccination discussions.
        UNICEF/WHO/CDC + Vaccines                       Anti-Vaccination                                Mike Huckabee
                                                                                                        supports Pakistan to
                                                                                                        ban polio vaccine.
                                                                                            Whooping Cough          Pampers supports       Immunization
                          CDC: Measles                                                      Outbreak in OR          UNICEF giving          Week in Zimbabwe
                          Incidence                                                                                 tetanus shots.
 5000                     increased in 2011                              Dr. Oz admits not
          WA Increase                                                    vaccinating kids, while
 4500     in Whooping                                                    advocating for vaccines.
          Cough
 4000                                                                                                                                        CDC: Whooping Cough
                     CA Bill             VT Debates Ending
                     AB2109              “Philosophical                                                                                      Epidemic worst in 50
 3500                                                               CDC’s Vaccines For                                                       years, calling for adult
                                         Exemption”
              CDC                                                   Children study shows                                                     vaccinations.
 3000         Announces                                             vaccines improperly stored
              Autism
 2500         Increase
 2000                                          Mayim Bialik on            Autism One                                                   Freedom Fest
                                               NPR’s Science              Conference                                                   2012 in Las
 1500                                          Friday does not            2012 in Chicago                                              Vegas
                                               vaccinate her kids
 1000
  500
    0
        4/1    4/8        4/15    4/22        4/29     5/6      5/13      5/20     5/27      6/3    6/10     6/17     6/24     7/1       7/8      7/15      7/22        7/29



                                                                                                                                                                               22
Anti-vaccination
  Arguments
The prevalence of anti-vaccination topics shows the
specific concerns associated with each population.
                                          9%                           0%
                                                                      3%
                                        4%
                                                       27%
 Religion/Ethics                                             32%
                                  14%
 Side effects                              English                  Romanian
                                  1%
                                                        6%                        65%
 Distrust Government/Industries    15%
 Toxins/Unnatural                                24%

 Unnecessary
 Developmental Disabilities                2%
                                                                    12%     11%
                                                               3%
 Efficacy
 Western Plot                              Russian           19%     Polish
                                                                                   35%

                                                               7%
                                                98%                 6% 7%

                                                                                         24
Romanian Examples
  VACCINUL ANTI -HPV UCIDE!!! O elevă de 14 ani din              HPV vaccine KILL! A student of 14 years in
  Marea Britanie a murit după ce i-a fost                        Britain died after being administered a
  administrată o doză de vaccin împotriva                        dose of vaccine against cervical cancer:
  cancerului de col uterin: Vaccinuri inutile si                 unnecessary and dangerous vaccines
  periculoase: “Gardasil (Silgard) şi Cervarixul sunt            "Gardasil (Gardasil) and Cervarix are two
  două vaccinuri folosite împotriva virusului HPV (şi nu         vaccines against HPV (not cancer cervical
  a cancerului de col uterin cum ni se spune)!                   we are told)!




  In the United States, it is widely known across media channels that over 5,000 families believe that
  their children's autism was caused by this vaccine, however the actual number is certainly much
  greater. Such legislative decisions against ROR include a 90,000 pound settlement to a little boy called
  Robert Fletcher for cerebral lesions as well as a 1.5 million dollar settlement to Hannah Poling's parents
  who started showing autism signs the day after receiving six different vaccines including ROR.




  The proponents of the vaccination theory: Jenner and Pasteur's followers - the Vaccine Mafia
                                                                                                               25
Russian Examples
 Недавно проведённое большое исследование
                                             A recent large study confirms the results of
 подтверждает результаты других
                                             other independent observations, which
 независимых наблюдений, где сравнивались
                                             compared vaccinated and unvaccinated
 привитые и непривитые дети. Все они
                                             children. They all show that vaccinated
 показывают, что вакцинированные дети
                                             children suffer from 2 to 5 times more often
 болеют от 2 до 5 раз чаще, чем
                                             than non-vaccinated children.
 невакцинированные дети.

 Source: http://epidemnews.ru               Вакцинация против пандемического
                                            гриппа H1N1, известного также как
                                            "свиной", может приводить к развитию
  Vaccination against pandemic influenza
                                            синдрома Гийена-Барре, острого
  H1N1, also known as "swine", can lead
                                            полирадикулита у
  to the development of Guillain-Barré
                                            взрослых, свидетельствуют данные
  syndrome, acute poliradikulita in
                                            канадских ученых, опубликованные в
  adults, according to the Canadian
                                            журнале JAMA.
  researchers, published in the journal
  JAMA.
                                            Source: www.rutoday.ru
                                                                                            26
Polish Examples


  In Poland, no one was vaccinated, because the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who is a doctor, decided
  that it would not be too safe. "As a physician, I am guided by the principle of not harming others" -
  Kopacz said in the Polish parliament in 2009. – ”We will not purchase vaccine for swine flu."




  … in 2007 a ​dozen of homeless people in Poland who, without their knowledge, were
  vaccinated against bird flu– died …




  For over 30 years in the U.S., pharmaceutical companies produce vaccines derived from
  aborted fetal tissue (…)
                                                                                                          27
English Examples




                   28
Arguments against vaccination vary by gender.

  Men tend to be more concerned with topics that focus on the bigger picture.
  Women tend to be more concerned with granular topics, focusing on direct cause & effect.

                                                      Female         Male

                 Western Plot       37%                             63%

                      Efficacy       41%                              59%

               Religion/Ethics       42%                              58%

                      Distrust…           48%                             52%

         Chemicals/Unnatural              51%                             49%

                  Side Effects             54%                              46%

                 Unnecessary                    58%                             42%

    Developmental Disabilities                  59%                             41%


                                                                                             29
At first glance, Religion/Ethics appeared to be the most
engaging anti-vaccination topic.
                                   Activity Volume

                Religion/Ethics

 Distrust Government/Industries

           Chemicals/Unnatural

     Developmental Disabilities

                    Side effects

                  Western Plot

                        Efficacy
                                                     Interactions
                  Unnecessary
                                                     Posts


                                                                    30
But analyzing various metrics pointed to three topics:
Distrust, Disabilities, Chemicals.
                Rank by                    Rank by                   Rank by                       Rank by
            Activity Volume              Impact Ratio           Conversation Density           Engagement Rate

                                                           Distrust
 Religion/Ethics              Developmental Disabilities                                Developmental Disabilities
                                                           Government/Industries
 Distrust                     Distrust
                                                           Developmental Disabilities   Chemicals/Unnatural
 Government/Industries        Government/Industries
                                                                                        Distrust
 Chemicals/Unnatural          Chemicals/Unnatural          Chemicals/Unnatural
                                                                                        Government/Industries

 Developmental Disabilities   Unnecessary                  Side effects                 Unnecessary

 Side Effects                 Side Effects                 Western Plot                 Religion/Ethics

 Western Plot                 Religion/Ethics              Unnecessary                  Efficacy

 Efficacy                     Western Plot                 Religion/Ethics              Western Plot

 Unnecessary                  Efficacy                     Efficacy                     Side effects


                                                                                                                     31
Anti-Vaccination advocates leverage their social networks
to influence others about health, parenting, & policy.
                 Influencer                                  Networks                                                     Description

Dr. Joseph Mercola                       Facebook, Twitter, Blog                       Naturopathic doctor against vaccines
                                                                                       Concern with vaccines having aborted fetal tissue, chemicals used in pesticides, &
Vactruth.com                             Blog
                                                                                       heavy metals
Zen Gardner – Just Wondering             Blog                                          Conspiracies aimed at media, government, science, etc.

Dr. Tenpenny on Vaccines                 Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest         Osteopathic doctor argues that vaccines cause brain injury

Left Brain/Right Brain                   Blog                                          Autism news science & opinion, anti-vaccination leaning

Thinking Moms’ Revolution                Blog, Facebook                                Parent-focused

                                                                                       Argues that vaccinated children get unvaccinated children sick, doctors have
Proud Parents of Unvaccinated Children   Facebook
                                                                                       inadequate education, Big Pharma controls what doctors learn in medical school
                                                                                       Anti-government, anti-corporate, argues that neurotoxins in vaccines cause brain
The Refusers                             Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr
                                                                                       damage
Natural News                             Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Blog   Alternative Medicine blog

Greenmedinfo.com                         Blog                                          Alternative Medicine blog
                                         Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, LinkedIn,    Argues the Pharmaceutical-Industrial Complex pushes harmful vaccines, and
Worldtruth.tv
                                         Tumblr, Google+, YouTube                      vaccinated kids get more sick than unvaccinated kids
DailySalt.org                            Blog                                          Alternative Medicine blog

Cafemom.com                              Forum                                         Vaccination studies and effects explored

VaccineInjury.info                       Blog                                          Argues for natural immunity to regain health

EverydayHealth.org                       Blog                                          Alternative Medicine blog
Dr. Tenpenny targets women with emotional appeal &
medical authority.
                                 40K Facebook Fans
                                 1.6K Twitter Followers
                                 48 Pinterest Followers



                                  Features
                                  – Multiple social networks
                                  – Multiple websites
                                  – Digital content variety
                                  – Women-focused
                                  – Authoritative



                                                               33
Natural News presents as an accessible health &
wellness authority.
                                   270K Facebook Fans
                                   51K Twitter Followers
                                   4.6K Pinterest Followers
                                   42K YouTube Subscribers

                                    Features
                                    – Multiple social networks
                                    – Digital content variety
                                    – Lifestyle oriented
                                    – Free Information
                                    – Authoritative



                                                                 34
WorldTruth.TV’s international focus on conspiracies
appeals to fear.
                                   27K Facebook Fans
                                   1K Twitter Followers
                                   453 YouTube Subscribers
                                   72 Pinterest Followers

                                     Features
                                     – Multiple social networks
                                     – Authenticity & Authority
                                     – Apocalyptic theme
                                     – Internationally-focused
                                     – Opportunity to donate



                                                                  35
Insights &
Implementation
Model of Anti-vaccination Sentiment Identification
& Salience




                                    1   Core Members



                                    2   Intense Member



                                    3   Alert Members




                                                         37
Arguments for vaccine refusal are interrelated &
associated with existing beliefs & values.

          Freedom of Choice                                                             Faith in God
                                                Religion/Ethics


   Alternative              Side Effects                             Unnecessary
    Medicine                                                                                    Homeopathy
                      Developmental
                        Disabilities                                    Toxins/Unnatural



 Medical-Industrial             Efficacy                             Western Plot                 Green
    Complex                                                                                      Movement
                                           Distrust of Government/
                                                 Industries
             Anti-capitalism                                                        Population Control

                                                                                                             38
Why do parents refuse vaccinations for their children?
    How do they feel?             What do they want?
     Uninformed                    Accessible Information

     Conflicted                    Comprehensive Education

                                   Acknowledgement
     Frustrated
                                   Guidance
     Scared
                                   Assurance
     Suspicious
                                   Transparency
     Distrustful
                                   More Vaccine Research
     Skeptical                     Opportunity to contribute
     Disempowered                  Freedom to Choose

                                                               39
Engagement strategies flowed directly from our findings.




                                                           40
Questions?
Contact




    Sebastian Majewski     Emily Chambliss
    United Nations         Traxion & Attention USA
    smajewski@unicef.org   echambliss@attentionusa.com
    @sebmaje               @emilychambliss

                                                         42
Appendix
Popular arguments reflect traditional American values.

                                                Social Media Participants
  The relative popularity of topics
                                                                         Unnecessary
  reflects the collective concerns                            Efficacy       1%
                                                                4%
  of the English-speaking Anti-                Side effects
                                                   6%
  Vaccination community—
                                      Western Plot
  freedom, ethics, religion, and          9%                                      Religion/Ethic
                                                                                         s
  health—typical values of most                                                        27%

  Americans.                                     Development
                                                 al Disabilities
                                                      14%
                                                                                   Distrust
                                                                                 Government/
                                                         Chemicals/No
                                                                                  Industries
                                                           n-natural
                                                                                     24%
                                                             15%




                                                                                                   44
Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
  •   Looking at activity volume showed Religion/Ethics to be the most engaging topic.
  •   Looking at impact ratio showed Developmental Disabilities to be the most engaging topic.

                 Activity Volume                                       Impact Ratio

                                        Interactions
                                                                     Topic                Impact
                                        Posts              Developmental Disabilities      2.7
                                                         Distrust Government/Industries    1.9
                                                              Chemicals/Unnatural          1.9
                                                                 Unnecessary               1.6
                                                                  Side Effects             1.1
                                                                Religion/Ethics             1
                                                                 Western Plot               1
                                                                    Efficacy               0.9


                                                                                                   45
Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
 •   More people were involved per conversation about Distrust Government/Industries.
 •   Posts about Developmental Disabilities became conversations more frequently than other topics.

            People per Conversation                                 Engagement Rate

                  Topic                Density                     Topic                Engagement
      Distrust Government/Industries     7.9             Developmental Disabilities        20%
        Developmental Disabilities       6.9                Chemicals/Unnatural            16%

           Chemicals/Unnatural           6.9           Distrust Government/Industries      14%

               Side effects              6.3                   Unnecessary                 14%

              Western Plot               5.8                  Religion/Ethics              11%

              Unnecessary                5.5                      Efficacy                 11%

             Religion/Ethics             5.2                   Western Plot                11%

                 Efficacy                4.4                    Side effects               10%


                                                                                                      46
The Refusers advocate against vaccines through music
& “authenticity."
                                   10K Facebook Fans
                                   13K Twitter Followers
                                   139 YouTube Subscribers



                                    Features
                                    – Multiple networks
                                    – Entertainment content
                                    – Social activism
                                    – American values
                                    – Conspiracy



                                                              47
VacTruth.com triggers parental fears by emphasizing
responsibility.
                                   14K Facebook Fans
                                   730 Twitter Followers
                                   444 YouTube Subscribers



                                    Features
                                    – Multiple social networks
                                    – Educational
                                    – Empowering
                                    – Authoritative
                                    – Clean, simple design



                                                                 48

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Social Media Analytics Helps UNICEF Save Lives

  • 1. UNICEF & Anti-Vaccination Trends Social Media Analytics to Save Lives February 2013 prepared by Traxion
  • 2. Meet the presenters Sebastian Majewski Emily Chambliss United Nations Traxion & Attention USA smajewski@unicef.org echambliss@attentionusa.com @sebmaje @emilychambliss 2
  • 3. The need for social media research
  • 4. Social media analytics is tackling real world problems. UNICEF vaccinations in the CEE-CIS region 4
  • 5. Social media is a global phenomenon. 5
  • 6. Purpose: to better understand anti- vaccination conversations & factors that affect parental decisions in the CEE-CIS. 6
  • 7. To reach this goal, we developed questions to guide the research. – Why parents are refusing vaccinations? – What are the concerns about vaccines? – What are their ideas/perceptions? – Who is influencing the discussion? – Which networks are being used? – Where are they located? – How to respond? 7
  • 8. The monitoring approach Social media conversations offer the depth of qualitative research and the sample sizes of quantitative research in real time. – How do we detect digital smoke signals? 8
  • 9. Research findings will have real world applications. 9
  • 10. Important questions to keep in mind – How can we ensure ethical consideration regarding privacy? – What pieces of data are valid and useful to the research? – How do we apply this research in a greater context? 10
  • 11. Social Media Research: Methodology
  • 12. After meticulous coordination & planning… Research Questions: Required Resources: – Terms/phrases? – Social data analysts – Languages? – Non-English translators – Timeframe? – Tracx – Social pages? – Information – Metrics? – Time 12
  • 13. Using various types of metrics & data collection Sentiment Volume Channels Engagement Analysis 13
  • 14. We analyzed conversations from 22,000 people across social media. From May to July 2012, 22,000 people participated in social media discussions about vaccination refusal in English, Russian, Romanian and Polish. 14
  • 15. We structured the research into four phases. Phase 1 Search Queries Language Phase 3 – Identify goals – UNICEF + Vaccines – English – Extract & compile data – Gather research – WHO + Vaccines – Polish – Quantitative & qualitative – Identify topics – CDC + Vaccines – Russian analyses – Identify languages – Anti-vaccination (general) – Romanian – Research influencers – Set up tracking – Review & translate verbatim Spotlight Pages mentions – UNICEF Networks: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube – Regional Pages: USA, Russia, Romania, Poland Phase 2 Query Topics – Chemicals/Unna Phase 4 – Scrub data – Side effects tural – Gather insights from data – Refine queries – Efficacy – Western Plot analyses – Identify topics – Unnecessary – Developmental – Synthesize non-English – Add new queries to – Religion/Ethics disabilities insights segment data by topic – Distrust – Pakistan ban – Construct the final report Government/Ind – Make strategic ustries recommendations based on key insights 15
  • 17. Young women drive the global anti-vaccination conversation on Blogs & Facebook. Gender Age 2% 2% 9000 7% 60+ Facebook 17% 8000 19% Blog 50 - 60 7000 18% 6000 YouTube 40 - 50 26% 5000 Twitter 24% 30 - 40 4000 Forum 3000 20 - 30 News 39% 2000 35% Other* 10 - 20 1000 0 7% 3% Men Women Men Women 17
  • 18. Anti-vaccination discussions typically occur in the US on Blogs, Facebook, & Forums. Locations USA 82% UK 3% Networks Sentiment Panama 3% Tumblr YouTube Australia 2% Twitter 3% 1% Canada 2% 5% Positive News 6% Germany 5% 0.7% Negitive Mexico 0.6% Forum 43% 14% Blog India 0.6% 47% Neutral 51% Ireland 0.5% Facebook 25% Pakistan 0.4% 18
  • 19. English is the most common language used to discuss anti-vaccination followed by Polish & Russian. Anti-vaccination discussions Non-English discussions Russian Romanian 3% 1% Romanian 8% 0% Polish 8% Russian 25% Polish 67% English 88% 19
  • 20. Blogs allow anti-vaccination discussions to reach outside countries & populations. English Russian USA 82% Russia 65% UK 3% Ukraine 15% Panama 3% Tumblr Forum YouTube USA 5% 3% 4% Australia 2% 1% Germany 5% Canada 2% Forum 14% Netherlands 1% Germany 0.7% Blog Twitter Belarus 1% Twitter Mexico 0.6% 47% News 24% 5% Kazakhstan 1% India 0.6% 2% News Blog Ireland 0.5% Facebook Latvia 1% 5% Facebook 65% Pakistan 0.4% 25% Azerbaijan 0.5% 25% Uzbekistan 0.5% Romanian Polish Romania Twitter Forum Poland 71% 74% 0% 0% USA USA 11% 15% News Tumblr Germany News Moldova 4% YouTube 9% Facebook 6% 0% 1% Netherlands 3% Facebook 1% Germany 3% 8% UK 2% 25% Italy 1% France 1% Colombia 0.5% Indonesia 0.4% Bulgaria 0.5% Denmark 0.3% Blog Czech Republic 0.3% Blog Portugal 0.5% 86% India 0.3% 85% UK 0.5% 20
  • 21. Blogs, Forums, & Facebook facilitate the most engaging discussions about anti-vaccination. Posts 40000 35000 Interactions 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Blog News Forum Facebook Twitter Reddit YouTube Tumblr Other* 21
  • 22. Opportunities exist for UNICEF to join organic anti- vaccination discussions. UNICEF/WHO/CDC + Vaccines Anti-Vaccination Mike Huckabee supports Pakistan to ban polio vaccine. Whooping Cough Pampers supports Immunization CDC: Measles Outbreak in OR UNICEF giving Week in Zimbabwe Incidence tetanus shots. 5000 increased in 2011 Dr. Oz admits not WA Increase vaccinating kids, while 4500 in Whooping advocating for vaccines. Cough 4000 CDC: Whooping Cough CA Bill VT Debates Ending AB2109 “Philosophical Epidemic worst in 50 3500 CDC’s Vaccines For years, calling for adult Exemption” CDC Children study shows vaccinations. 3000 Announces vaccines improperly stored Autism 2500 Increase 2000 Mayim Bialik on Autism One Freedom Fest NPR’s Science Conference 2012 in Las 1500 Friday does not 2012 in Chicago Vegas vaccinate her kids 1000 500 0 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 22
  • 24. The prevalence of anti-vaccination topics shows the specific concerns associated with each population. 9% 0% 3% 4% 27% Religion/Ethics 32% 14% Side effects English Romanian 1% 6% 65% Distrust Government/Industries 15% Toxins/Unnatural 24% Unnecessary Developmental Disabilities 2% 12% 11% 3% Efficacy Western Plot Russian 19% Polish 35% 7% 98% 6% 7% 24
  • 25. Romanian Examples VACCINUL ANTI -HPV UCIDE!!! O elevă de 14 ani din HPV vaccine KILL! A student of 14 years in Marea Britanie a murit după ce i-a fost Britain died after being administered a administrată o doză de vaccin împotriva dose of vaccine against cervical cancer: cancerului de col uterin: Vaccinuri inutile si unnecessary and dangerous vaccines periculoase: “Gardasil (Silgard) şi Cervarixul sunt "Gardasil (Gardasil) and Cervarix are two două vaccinuri folosite împotriva virusului HPV (şi nu vaccines against HPV (not cancer cervical a cancerului de col uterin cum ni se spune)! we are told)! In the United States, it is widely known across media channels that over 5,000 families believe that their children's autism was caused by this vaccine, however the actual number is certainly much greater. Such legislative decisions against ROR include a 90,000 pound settlement to a little boy called Robert Fletcher for cerebral lesions as well as a 1.5 million dollar settlement to Hannah Poling's parents who started showing autism signs the day after receiving six different vaccines including ROR. The proponents of the vaccination theory: Jenner and Pasteur's followers - the Vaccine Mafia 25
  • 26. Russian Examples Недавно проведённое большое исследование A recent large study confirms the results of подтверждает результаты других other independent observations, which независимых наблюдений, где сравнивались compared vaccinated and unvaccinated привитые и непривитые дети. Все они children. They all show that vaccinated показывают, что вакцинированные дети children suffer from 2 to 5 times more often болеют от 2 до 5 раз чаще, чем than non-vaccinated children. невакцинированные дети. Source: http://epidemnews.ru Вакцинация против пандемического гриппа H1N1, известного также как "свиной", может приводить к развитию Vaccination against pandemic influenza синдрома Гийена-Барре, острого H1N1, also known as "swine", can lead полирадикулита у to the development of Guillain-Barré взрослых, свидетельствуют данные syndrome, acute poliradikulita in канадских ученых, опубликованные в adults, according to the Canadian журнале JAMA. researchers, published in the journal JAMA. Source: www.rutoday.ru 26
  • 27. Polish Examples In Poland, no one was vaccinated, because the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who is a doctor, decided that it would not be too safe. "As a physician, I am guided by the principle of not harming others" - Kopacz said in the Polish parliament in 2009. – ”We will not purchase vaccine for swine flu." … in 2007 a ​dozen of homeless people in Poland who, without their knowledge, were vaccinated against bird flu– died … For over 30 years in the U.S., pharmaceutical companies produce vaccines derived from aborted fetal tissue (…) 27
  • 29. Arguments against vaccination vary by gender. Men tend to be more concerned with topics that focus on the bigger picture. Women tend to be more concerned with granular topics, focusing on direct cause & effect. Female Male Western Plot 37% 63% Efficacy 41% 59% Religion/Ethics 42% 58% Distrust… 48% 52% Chemicals/Unnatural 51% 49% Side Effects 54% 46% Unnecessary 58% 42% Developmental Disabilities 59% 41% 29
  • 30. At first glance, Religion/Ethics appeared to be the most engaging anti-vaccination topic. Activity Volume Religion/Ethics Distrust Government/Industries Chemicals/Unnatural Developmental Disabilities Side effects Western Plot Efficacy Interactions Unnecessary Posts 30
  • 31. But analyzing various metrics pointed to three topics: Distrust, Disabilities, Chemicals. Rank by Rank by Rank by Rank by Activity Volume Impact Ratio Conversation Density Engagement Rate Distrust Religion/Ethics Developmental Disabilities Developmental Disabilities Government/Industries Distrust Distrust Developmental Disabilities Chemicals/Unnatural Government/Industries Government/Industries Distrust Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Government/Industries Developmental Disabilities Unnecessary Side effects Unnecessary Side Effects Side Effects Western Plot Religion/Ethics Western Plot Religion/Ethics Unnecessary Efficacy Efficacy Western Plot Religion/Ethics Western Plot Unnecessary Efficacy Efficacy Side effects 31
  • 32. Anti-Vaccination advocates leverage their social networks to influence others about health, parenting, & policy. Influencer Networks Description Dr. Joseph Mercola Facebook, Twitter, Blog Naturopathic doctor against vaccines Concern with vaccines having aborted fetal tissue, chemicals used in pesticides, & Vactruth.com Blog heavy metals Zen Gardner – Just Wondering Blog Conspiracies aimed at media, government, science, etc. Dr. Tenpenny on Vaccines Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest Osteopathic doctor argues that vaccines cause brain injury Left Brain/Right Brain Blog Autism news science & opinion, anti-vaccination leaning Thinking Moms’ Revolution Blog, Facebook Parent-focused Argues that vaccinated children get unvaccinated children sick, doctors have Proud Parents of Unvaccinated Children Facebook inadequate education, Big Pharma controls what doctors learn in medical school Anti-government, anti-corporate, argues that neurotoxins in vaccines cause brain The Refusers Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr damage Natural News Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Blog Alternative Medicine blog Greenmedinfo.com Blog Alternative Medicine blog Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, LinkedIn, Argues the Pharmaceutical-Industrial Complex pushes harmful vaccines, and Worldtruth.tv Tumblr, Google+, YouTube vaccinated kids get more sick than unvaccinated kids DailySalt.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog Cafemom.com Forum Vaccination studies and effects explored VaccineInjury.info Blog Argues for natural immunity to regain health EverydayHealth.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog
  • 33. Dr. Tenpenny targets women with emotional appeal & medical authority. 40K Facebook Fans 1.6K Twitter Followers 48 Pinterest Followers Features – Multiple social networks – Multiple websites – Digital content variety – Women-focused – Authoritative 33
  • 34. Natural News presents as an accessible health & wellness authority. 270K Facebook Fans 51K Twitter Followers 4.6K Pinterest Followers 42K YouTube Subscribers Features – Multiple social networks – Digital content variety – Lifestyle oriented – Free Information – Authoritative 34
  • 35. WorldTruth.TV’s international focus on conspiracies appeals to fear. 27K Facebook Fans 1K Twitter Followers 453 YouTube Subscribers 72 Pinterest Followers Features – Multiple social networks – Authenticity & Authority – Apocalyptic theme – Internationally-focused – Opportunity to donate 35
  • 37. Model of Anti-vaccination Sentiment Identification & Salience 1 Core Members 2 Intense Member 3 Alert Members 37
  • 38. Arguments for vaccine refusal are interrelated & associated with existing beliefs & values. Freedom of Choice Faith in God Religion/Ethics Alternative Side Effects Unnecessary Medicine Homeopathy Developmental Disabilities Toxins/Unnatural Medical-Industrial Efficacy Western Plot Green Complex Movement Distrust of Government/ Industries Anti-capitalism Population Control 38
  • 39. Why do parents refuse vaccinations for their children? How do they feel? What do they want? Uninformed Accessible Information Conflicted Comprehensive Education Acknowledgement Frustrated Guidance Scared Assurance Suspicious Transparency Distrustful More Vaccine Research Skeptical Opportunity to contribute Disempowered Freedom to Choose 39
  • 40. Engagement strategies flowed directly from our findings. 40
  • 42. Contact Sebastian Majewski Emily Chambliss United Nations Traxion & Attention USA smajewski@unicef.org echambliss@attentionusa.com @sebmaje @emilychambliss 42
  • 44. Popular arguments reflect traditional American values. Social Media Participants The relative popularity of topics Unnecessary reflects the collective concerns Efficacy 1% 4% of the English-speaking Anti- Side effects 6% Vaccination community— Western Plot freedom, ethics, religion, and 9% Religion/Ethic s health—typical values of most 27% Americans. Development al Disabilities 14% Distrust Government/ Chemicals/No Industries n-natural 24% 15% 44
  • 45. Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic • Looking at activity volume showed Religion/Ethics to be the most engaging topic. • Looking at impact ratio showed Developmental Disabilities to be the most engaging topic. Activity Volume Impact Ratio Interactions Topic Impact Posts Developmental Disabilities 2.7 Distrust Government/Industries 1.9 Chemicals/Unnatural 1.9 Unnecessary 1.6 Side Effects 1.1 Religion/Ethics 1 Western Plot 1 Efficacy 0.9 45
  • 46. Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic • More people were involved per conversation about Distrust Government/Industries. • Posts about Developmental Disabilities became conversations more frequently than other topics. People per Conversation Engagement Rate Topic Density Topic Engagement Distrust Government/Industries 7.9 Developmental Disabilities 20% Developmental Disabilities 6.9 Chemicals/Unnatural 16% Chemicals/Unnatural 6.9 Distrust Government/Industries 14% Side effects 6.3 Unnecessary 14% Western Plot 5.8 Religion/Ethics 11% Unnecessary 5.5 Efficacy 11% Religion/Ethics 5.2 Western Plot 11% Efficacy 4.4 Side effects 10% 46
  • 47. The Refusers advocate against vaccines through music & “authenticity." 10K Facebook Fans 13K Twitter Followers 139 YouTube Subscribers Features – Multiple networks – Entertainment content – Social activism – American values – Conspiracy 47
  • 48. VacTruth.com triggers parental fears by emphasizing responsibility. 14K Facebook Fans 730 Twitter Followers 444 YouTube Subscribers Features – Multiple social networks – Educational – Empowering – Authoritative – Clean, simple design 48

Notas del editor

  1. 1.7 billion users are on top social networks world wide, nearly a quarter of the world population.
  2. Social media research insights will have real world applications.
  3. Social Media research takes coordination, time, effort, and $.
  4. Social media research involves several different types of metrics and data collection.
  5. Gives context about the amount of data and people involved in this study.
  6. The research process is methodical, structured, and time consuming.
  7. Mostly young adult women in the US drive anti-vaccination conversations in English on blogs and Facebook, reaching countries outside the USA.
  8. Mostly young adult women in the US drive anti-vaccination conversations in English on blogs and Facebook, reaching countries outside the USA.
  9. This may be due to the fact that we collected data from social networks more popular with English-speakers or it may reflect that Polish and Russian speakers are more interested in anti-vaccination discussions.
  10. Locations are detected when attached to a piece of data. We can see social media data in different languages coming from different places, showing the penetration of specific languages into other countries. Anti-vaccination discussions reached other countries by using the same social networks, allowing ideas to penetrate other regions and populations.
  11. Leading posts about anti-vaccination topics get way more engagement on Blogs, Forums, and Facebook.
  12. Anti-vaccination social activity spikes in response to announcements of disease incidence, news stories about vaccines, legislation, celebrity statements and brand endorsements. Not all peaks coincide, meaning that sometimes UNICEF was involved in social media discussions about vaccines where anti-vaccination sentiment was not present. (see 6/12, 6/29, 7/20 peaks). Also, anti-vaccine discussions peaked at times that UNICEF/WHO/CDC discussions were not peaking (see 4/20, 4/24. 4/26, 5/25, 6/6, 7/2, 7/9), revealing an opportunity for UNICEF to join the discussion from which they are absent.
  13. We see the prevalence of specific anti-vaccination topics in each language, showing the concerns associated with each population.
  14. Men tend to be more concerned with meta topics or arguments that focus on a larger context.Women tend to be more concerned with more granular topics that focus on direct cause and effect.
  15. Topics with greater interactions to posts indicate highly engaging arguments, often consisting of hundreds of comments in a long thread.Chemicals/non-natural, Distrust government/Industries, and Developmental disability arguments are highly engaging.
  16. Anti-Vaccination influencers spread ideas through well-established social networks and are often health-focused (Autism, homeopathic), parent-focused (social communities for moms), or concerned with government (freedom, conspiracy).
  17. Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.
  18. Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.
  19. The reasons for refusing vaccines are interrelated and correlated with other values and beliefs, but overall, people refuse the vaccines because they are disempowered and distrustful.
  20. People refuse the vaccines because they are disempowered and distrustful. They want acknowledgement of their concerns, comprehensive information, accessible education, transparency from organizations, establishment of trust, more research to study long term side effects of vaccines, opportunity to contribute, and freedom to make choices.
  21. Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.