In the last years, UNICEF Central and Eastern Europe – Commonwealth of Independent States (CEECIS) region has been troubled with the rise of a strong anti-vaccine sentiment, which has found popular expression through digital and social media.
The Social and Civic Media Section, within the Division of Communication, in collaboration with the CEECIS regional office pioneered in monitoring public social media discussions among concerned parents about anti vaccination sentiments. The findings help to understand who influences opinions, what concerns are the strongest among parents and how to best engage in communication and public advocacy efforts.
1. UNICEF & Anti-Vaccination Trends
Social Media Analytics to Save Lives
February 2013 prepared by Traxion
2. Meet the presenters
Sebastian Majewski Emily Chambliss
United Nations Traxion & Attention USA
smajewski@unicef.org echambliss@attentionusa.com
@sebmaje @emilychambliss
2
6. Purpose: to better understand anti-
vaccination conversations & factors that
affect parental decisions in the CEE-CIS.
6
7. To reach this goal, we developed questions to guide the
research.
– Why parents are refusing vaccinations?
– What are the concerns about vaccines?
– What are their ideas/perceptions?
– Who is influencing the discussion?
– Which networks are being used?
– Where are they located?
– How to respond?
7
8. The monitoring approach
Social media conversations offer the depth of qualitative
research and the sample sizes of quantitative research in
real time.
– How do we detect digital smoke signals?
8
10. Important questions to keep in mind
– How can we ensure ethical consideration regarding
privacy?
– What pieces of data are valid and useful to the
research?
– How do we apply this research in a greater
context?
10
12. After meticulous coordination & planning…
Research Questions: Required Resources:
– Terms/phrases? – Social data analysts
– Languages? – Non-English translators
– Timeframe? – Tracx
– Social pages? – Information
– Metrics? – Time
12
13. Using various types of metrics & data collection
Sentiment
Volume Channels Engagement Analysis
13
14. We analyzed conversations from 22,000 people across
social media.
From May to July 2012, 22,000 people participated in social media discussions
about vaccination refusal in English, Russian, Romanian and Polish.
14
15. We structured the research into four phases.
Phase 1 Search Queries Language Phase 3
– Identify goals – UNICEF + Vaccines – English – Extract & compile data
– Gather research – WHO + Vaccines – Polish – Quantitative & qualitative
– Identify topics – CDC + Vaccines – Russian analyses
– Identify languages – Anti-vaccination (general) – Romanian – Research influencers
– Set up tracking – Review & translate verbatim
Spotlight Pages mentions
– UNICEF Networks: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
– Regional Pages: USA, Russia, Romania, Poland
Phase 2 Query Topics – Chemicals/Unna Phase 4
– Scrub data – Side effects tural – Gather insights from data
– Refine queries – Efficacy – Western Plot analyses
– Identify topics – Unnecessary – Developmental – Synthesize non-English
– Add new queries to – Religion/Ethics disabilities insights
segment data by topic – Distrust – Pakistan ban – Construct the final report
Government/Ind – Make strategic
ustries recommendations based on
key insights
15
17. Young women drive the global anti-vaccination
conversation on Blogs & Facebook.
Gender Age
2% 2%
9000 7% 60+
Facebook 17%
8000
19%
Blog 50 - 60
7000
18%
6000 YouTube 40 - 50
26%
5000 Twitter 24%
30 - 40
4000
Forum
3000
20 - 30
News 39%
2000 35%
Other* 10 - 20
1000
0 7% 3%
Men Women Men Women
17
18. Anti-vaccination discussions typically occur in the US
on Blogs, Facebook, & Forums.
Locations
USA 82%
UK 3%
Networks Sentiment
Panama 3%
Tumblr YouTube
Australia 2%
Twitter 3% 1%
Canada 2% 5% Positive
News
6%
Germany 5%
0.7%
Negitive
Mexico 0.6% Forum 43%
14% Blog
India 0.6% 47% Neutral
51%
Ireland 0.5% Facebook
25%
Pakistan 0.4%
18
19. English is the most common language used to discuss
anti-vaccination followed by Polish & Russian.
Anti-vaccination discussions Non-English discussions
Russian Romanian
3% 1% Romanian
8% 0%
Polish
8%
Russian
25%
Polish
67%
English
88%
19
20. Blogs allow anti-vaccination discussions to reach outside countries & populations.
English Russian
USA 82% Russia 65%
UK 3% Ukraine 15%
Panama 3% Tumblr Forum
YouTube USA 5%
3% 4%
Australia 2% 1% Germany 5%
Canada 2% Forum
14% Netherlands 1%
Germany 0.7% Blog
Twitter Belarus 1% Twitter
Mexico 0.6% 47% News 24%
5% Kazakhstan 1%
India 0.6% 2%
News Blog
Ireland 0.5% Facebook Latvia 1%
5% Facebook 65%
Pakistan 0.4% 25% Azerbaijan 0.5%
25%
Uzbekistan 0.5%
Romanian Polish
Romania Twitter Forum Poland 71%
74% 0%
0% USA
USA 11% 15%
News Tumblr Germany News
Moldova 4% YouTube
9% Facebook 6% 0% 1%
Netherlands 3% Facebook 1%
Germany 3% 8%
UK 2% 25%
Italy 1% France 1%
Colombia 0.5% Indonesia 0.4%
Bulgaria 0.5% Denmark 0.3%
Blog Czech Republic 0.3% Blog
Portugal 0.5%
86% India 0.3% 85%
UK 0.5%
20
21. Blogs, Forums, & Facebook facilitate the most engaging
discussions about anti-vaccination.
Posts
40000
35000 Interactions
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Blog News Forum Facebook Twitter Reddit YouTube Tumblr Other*
21
22. Opportunities exist for UNICEF to join organic anti-
vaccination discussions.
UNICEF/WHO/CDC + Vaccines Anti-Vaccination Mike Huckabee
supports Pakistan to
ban polio vaccine.
Whooping Cough Pampers supports Immunization
CDC: Measles Outbreak in OR UNICEF giving Week in Zimbabwe
Incidence tetanus shots.
5000 increased in 2011 Dr. Oz admits not
WA Increase vaccinating kids, while
4500 in Whooping advocating for vaccines.
Cough
4000 CDC: Whooping Cough
CA Bill VT Debates Ending
AB2109 “Philosophical Epidemic worst in 50
3500 CDC’s Vaccines For years, calling for adult
Exemption”
CDC Children study shows vaccinations.
3000 Announces vaccines improperly stored
Autism
2500 Increase
2000 Mayim Bialik on Autism One Freedom Fest
NPR’s Science Conference 2012 in Las
1500 Friday does not 2012 in Chicago Vegas
vaccinate her kids
1000
500
0
4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29
22
24. The prevalence of anti-vaccination topics shows the
specific concerns associated with each population.
9% 0%
3%
4%
27%
Religion/Ethics 32%
14%
Side effects English Romanian
1%
6% 65%
Distrust Government/Industries 15%
Toxins/Unnatural 24%
Unnecessary
Developmental Disabilities 2%
12% 11%
3%
Efficacy
Western Plot Russian 19% Polish
35%
7%
98% 6% 7%
24
25. Romanian Examples
VACCINUL ANTI -HPV UCIDE!!! O elevă de 14 ani din HPV vaccine KILL! A student of 14 years in
Marea Britanie a murit după ce i-a fost Britain died after being administered a
administrată o doză de vaccin împotriva dose of vaccine against cervical cancer:
cancerului de col uterin: Vaccinuri inutile si unnecessary and dangerous vaccines
periculoase: “Gardasil (Silgard) şi Cervarixul sunt "Gardasil (Gardasil) and Cervarix are two
două vaccinuri folosite împotriva virusului HPV (şi nu vaccines against HPV (not cancer cervical
a cancerului de col uterin cum ni se spune)! we are told)!
In the United States, it is widely known across media channels that over 5,000 families believe that
their children's autism was caused by this vaccine, however the actual number is certainly much
greater. Such legislative decisions against ROR include a 90,000 pound settlement to a little boy called
Robert Fletcher for cerebral lesions as well as a 1.5 million dollar settlement to Hannah Poling's parents
who started showing autism signs the day after receiving six different vaccines including ROR.
The proponents of the vaccination theory: Jenner and Pasteur's followers - the Vaccine Mafia
25
26. Russian Examples
Недавно проведённое большое исследование
A recent large study confirms the results of
подтверждает результаты других
other independent observations, which
независимых наблюдений, где сравнивались
compared vaccinated and unvaccinated
привитые и непривитые дети. Все они
children. They all show that vaccinated
показывают, что вакцинированные дети
children suffer from 2 to 5 times more often
болеют от 2 до 5 раз чаще, чем
than non-vaccinated children.
невакцинированные дети.
Source: http://epidemnews.ru Вакцинация против пандемического
гриппа H1N1, известного также как
"свиной", может приводить к развитию
Vaccination against pandemic influenza
синдрома Гийена-Барре, острого
H1N1, also known as "swine", can lead
полирадикулита у
to the development of Guillain-Barré
взрослых, свидетельствуют данные
syndrome, acute poliradikulita in
канадских ученых, опубликованные в
adults, according to the Canadian
журнале JAMA.
researchers, published in the journal
JAMA.
Source: www.rutoday.ru
26
27. Polish Examples
In Poland, no one was vaccinated, because the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who is a doctor, decided
that it would not be too safe. "As a physician, I am guided by the principle of not harming others" -
Kopacz said in the Polish parliament in 2009. – ”We will not purchase vaccine for swine flu."
… in 2007 a dozen of homeless people in Poland who, without their knowledge, were
vaccinated against bird flu– died …
For over 30 years in the U.S., pharmaceutical companies produce vaccines derived from
aborted fetal tissue (…)
27
29. Arguments against vaccination vary by gender.
Men tend to be more concerned with topics that focus on the bigger picture.
Women tend to be more concerned with granular topics, focusing on direct cause & effect.
Female Male
Western Plot 37% 63%
Efficacy 41% 59%
Religion/Ethics 42% 58%
Distrust… 48% 52%
Chemicals/Unnatural 51% 49%
Side Effects 54% 46%
Unnecessary 58% 42%
Developmental Disabilities 59% 41%
29
30. At first glance, Religion/Ethics appeared to be the most
engaging anti-vaccination topic.
Activity Volume
Religion/Ethics
Distrust Government/Industries
Chemicals/Unnatural
Developmental Disabilities
Side effects
Western Plot
Efficacy
Interactions
Unnecessary
Posts
30
31. But analyzing various metrics pointed to three topics:
Distrust, Disabilities, Chemicals.
Rank by Rank by Rank by Rank by
Activity Volume Impact Ratio Conversation Density Engagement Rate
Distrust
Religion/Ethics Developmental Disabilities Developmental Disabilities
Government/Industries
Distrust Distrust
Developmental Disabilities Chemicals/Unnatural
Government/Industries Government/Industries
Distrust
Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural
Government/Industries
Developmental Disabilities Unnecessary Side effects Unnecessary
Side Effects Side Effects Western Plot Religion/Ethics
Western Plot Religion/Ethics Unnecessary Efficacy
Efficacy Western Plot Religion/Ethics Western Plot
Unnecessary Efficacy Efficacy Side effects
31
32. Anti-Vaccination advocates leverage their social networks
to influence others about health, parenting, & policy.
Influencer Networks Description
Dr. Joseph Mercola Facebook, Twitter, Blog Naturopathic doctor against vaccines
Concern with vaccines having aborted fetal tissue, chemicals used in pesticides, &
Vactruth.com Blog
heavy metals
Zen Gardner – Just Wondering Blog Conspiracies aimed at media, government, science, etc.
Dr. Tenpenny on Vaccines Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest Osteopathic doctor argues that vaccines cause brain injury
Left Brain/Right Brain Blog Autism news science & opinion, anti-vaccination leaning
Thinking Moms’ Revolution Blog, Facebook Parent-focused
Argues that vaccinated children get unvaccinated children sick, doctors have
Proud Parents of Unvaccinated Children Facebook
inadequate education, Big Pharma controls what doctors learn in medical school
Anti-government, anti-corporate, argues that neurotoxins in vaccines cause brain
The Refusers Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr
damage
Natural News Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Greenmedinfo.com Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, LinkedIn, Argues the Pharmaceutical-Industrial Complex pushes harmful vaccines, and
Worldtruth.tv
Tumblr, Google+, YouTube vaccinated kids get more sick than unvaccinated kids
DailySalt.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Cafemom.com Forum Vaccination studies and effects explored
VaccineInjury.info Blog Argues for natural immunity to regain health
EverydayHealth.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog
33. Dr. Tenpenny targets women with emotional appeal &
medical authority.
40K Facebook Fans
1.6K Twitter Followers
48 Pinterest Followers
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Multiple websites
– Digital content variety
– Women-focused
– Authoritative
33
34. Natural News presents as an accessible health &
wellness authority.
270K Facebook Fans
51K Twitter Followers
4.6K Pinterest Followers
42K YouTube Subscribers
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Digital content variety
– Lifestyle oriented
– Free Information
– Authoritative
34
35. WorldTruth.TV’s international focus on conspiracies
appeals to fear.
27K Facebook Fans
1K Twitter Followers
453 YouTube Subscribers
72 Pinterest Followers
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Authenticity & Authority
– Apocalyptic theme
– Internationally-focused
– Opportunity to donate
35
37. Model of Anti-vaccination Sentiment Identification
& Salience
1 Core Members
2 Intense Member
3 Alert Members
37
38. Arguments for vaccine refusal are interrelated &
associated with existing beliefs & values.
Freedom of Choice Faith in God
Religion/Ethics
Alternative Side Effects Unnecessary
Medicine Homeopathy
Developmental
Disabilities Toxins/Unnatural
Medical-Industrial Efficacy Western Plot Green
Complex Movement
Distrust of Government/
Industries
Anti-capitalism Population Control
38
39. Why do parents refuse vaccinations for their children?
How do they feel? What do they want?
Uninformed Accessible Information
Conflicted Comprehensive Education
Acknowledgement
Frustrated
Guidance
Scared
Assurance
Suspicious
Transparency
Distrustful
More Vaccine Research
Skeptical Opportunity to contribute
Disempowered Freedom to Choose
39
44. Popular arguments reflect traditional American values.
Social Media Participants
The relative popularity of topics
Unnecessary
reflects the collective concerns Efficacy 1%
4%
of the English-speaking Anti- Side effects
6%
Vaccination community—
Western Plot
freedom, ethics, religion, and 9% Religion/Ethic
s
health—typical values of most 27%
Americans. Development
al Disabilities
14%
Distrust
Government/
Chemicals/No
Industries
n-natural
24%
15%
44
45. Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
• Looking at activity volume showed Religion/Ethics to be the most engaging topic.
• Looking at impact ratio showed Developmental Disabilities to be the most engaging topic.
Activity Volume Impact Ratio
Interactions
Topic Impact
Posts Developmental Disabilities 2.7
Distrust Government/Industries 1.9
Chemicals/Unnatural 1.9
Unnecessary 1.6
Side Effects 1.1
Religion/Ethics 1
Western Plot 1
Efficacy 0.9
45
46. Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
• More people were involved per conversation about Distrust Government/Industries.
• Posts about Developmental Disabilities became conversations more frequently than other topics.
People per Conversation Engagement Rate
Topic Density Topic Engagement
Distrust Government/Industries 7.9 Developmental Disabilities 20%
Developmental Disabilities 6.9 Chemicals/Unnatural 16%
Chemicals/Unnatural 6.9 Distrust Government/Industries 14%
Side effects 6.3 Unnecessary 14%
Western Plot 5.8 Religion/Ethics 11%
Unnecessary 5.5 Efficacy 11%
Religion/Ethics 5.2 Western Plot 11%
Efficacy 4.4 Side effects 10%
46
47. The Refusers advocate against vaccines through music
& “authenticity."
10K Facebook Fans
13K Twitter Followers
139 YouTube Subscribers
Features
– Multiple networks
– Entertainment content
– Social activism
– American values
– Conspiracy
47
1.7 billion users are on top social networks world wide, nearly a quarter of the world population.
Social media research insights will have real world applications.
Social Media research takes coordination, time, effort, and $.
Social media research involves several different types of metrics and data collection.
Gives context about the amount of data and people involved in this study.
The research process is methodical, structured, and time consuming.
Mostly young adult women in the US drive anti-vaccination conversations in English on blogs and Facebook, reaching countries outside the USA.
Mostly young adult women in the US drive anti-vaccination conversations in English on blogs and Facebook, reaching countries outside the USA.
This may be due to the fact that we collected data from social networks more popular with English-speakers or it may reflect that Polish and Russian speakers are more interested in anti-vaccination discussions.
Locations are detected when attached to a piece of data. We can see social media data in different languages coming from different places, showing the penetration of specific languages into other countries. Anti-vaccination discussions reached other countries by using the same social networks, allowing ideas to penetrate other regions and populations.
Leading posts about anti-vaccination topics get way more engagement on Blogs, Forums, and Facebook.
Anti-vaccination social activity spikes in response to announcements of disease incidence, news stories about vaccines, legislation, celebrity statements and brand endorsements. Not all peaks coincide, meaning that sometimes UNICEF was involved in social media discussions about vaccines where anti-vaccination sentiment was not present. (see 6/12, 6/29, 7/20 peaks). Also, anti-vaccine discussions peaked at times that UNICEF/WHO/CDC discussions were not peaking (see 4/20, 4/24. 4/26, 5/25, 6/6, 7/2, 7/9), revealing an opportunity for UNICEF to join the discussion from which they are absent.
We see the prevalence of specific anti-vaccination topics in each language, showing the concerns associated with each population.
Men tend to be more concerned with meta topics or arguments that focus on a larger context.Women tend to be more concerned with more granular topics that focus on direct cause and effect.
Topics with greater interactions to posts indicate highly engaging arguments, often consisting of hundreds of comments in a long thread.Chemicals/non-natural, Distrust government/Industries, and Developmental disability arguments are highly engaging.
Anti-Vaccination influencers spread ideas through well-established social networks and are often health-focused (Autism, homeopathic), parent-focused (social communities for moms), or concerned with government (freedom, conspiracy).
Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.
Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.
The reasons for refusing vaccines are interrelated and correlated with other values and beliefs, but overall, people refuse the vaccines because they are disempowered and distrustful.
People refuse the vaccines because they are disempowered and distrustful. They want acknowledgement of their concerns, comprehensive information, accessible education, transparency from organizations, establishment of trust, more research to study long term side effects of vaccines, opportunity to contribute, and freedom to make choices.
Influencer uses multiple social networks, digital content (text, video, pictures), emotional appeal, authority, offering services & ecommerce. These are the features of influencer’s social media presence that makes them so powerful.