A recent study from Environics Research shows significant erosion in Ontario Liberal support since the last election.

1. Ontario Provincial Political State of Play
March 24-25, 2015
PN8305

2. 2State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Methodology
Environics Research conducted a telephone survey of 989 Ontario
residents; 232 of the surveys were completed with people using
cellphones and 757 were conducted by land line.
The surveys were conducted using Interactive Voice Response
(IVR) technology March 24-25, 2015 – and were weighted by age,
gender and region to reflect the demographic makeup of the
province.
The margins of error for a sample of 989 is plus or minus 3.1
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margins of error are
higher for the various demographic subgroups.

3. 3State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Ontario PCs (33%) and Liberals (32%) are now virtually
tied; Ontario NDP is a close third at 27%
Q6 If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for…?
March 2015 Ontario vote intention
20
27
24
24
32
39
25
33
31
5
7
6
25All voters
Decided voters
2014 election results
NDP Liberals PCs Other Would not vote/undecided

4. 4State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Ontario Liberals have lost their edge in Toronto and
the 905 belt
Q6 If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for…?
Base: Decided voters
March 2015 Ontario vote intention – by region
27
33
27
45
18
26
32
30
31
28
38
33
33
27
37
16
40
33
7
10
5
11
3
9
Total
City of Toronto
Outer belt (905)
Northern
Eastern
Southwestern
NDP Liberals PCs Other

5. 5State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Ontario PC support skews male and older; Ontario
NDP support skews younger and female
Q6 If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for…?
Base: Decided voters
March 2015 Ontario vote intention – by gender & age
27
24
31
33
21
25
32
32
33
30
39
30
33
38
28
29
33
41
7
6
8
8
7
5
Total
Men
Women
18 - 44
45 - 59
60+
NDP Liberals PCs Other

6. 6State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Ontario Liberal support is skewed towards those with
high incomes and university educations
Q6 If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for…?
Base: Decided voters
March 2015 Ontario vote intention – by education & income
27
30
25
28
35
30
32
19
32
21
28
41
27
31
22
44
33
43
39
25
33
30
33
31
7
6
8
7
5
9
12
5
Total
High school
College
University
<$40K
$40K - $70K
$70K - $100K
$100K+
NDP Liberals PCs Other

7. 7State of Play Ontario – March 2015
Ontario NDP is the party of choice among those in
union households
Q6 If an Ontario provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for…?
Base: Decided voters
March 2015 Ontario vote intention – by union household
27
38
23
32
27
34
33
26
36
7
9
6
Total
Union household
Non-union household
NDP Liberals PCs Other

8. Derek Leebosh
Vice President , Public Affairs
Environics Research Group Ltd.
derek.leebosh@environics.ca
416-969-2817
www.EnvironicsResearch.com