Science Seminar Series 3 Wayne Meyer

Environment Institute
Science Seminar Series 2009
April 6 2009

The future of landscapes futures?
Climate, soil, water, biota, economics and people -
research complexity

Presented by: Professor Wayne Meyer, University of Adelaide
10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 1

What future for Landscape Futures?
• Context for integrated landscape science in SA
• Developing awareness of the need for science research
capability and engagement to improve NRM
• Should UA be involved in this research?
• What is Landscape Futures analysis?
• What research?
• What opportunities?
• Where to next?


The challenges in current NRM:

• Despite good NRM legislation the condition of resources
continues to persistently decline.
• SA EPA State of Environment Report 2008
Atmospheric emissions increased 28% since 1990
o

River conditions poor and stable, Murray floodplain health declining
o

Seagrass area declining, coastal sprawl increasing
o

Peri-urban area increasing, land use intensity increasing, acid soils
o
increasing
Number of vulnerable species increasing, rabbits and camels
o
increasing, invasive species (olives, silverleaf nightshade) increasing
Population growth rate increasing, more cars, more road freight
o

Renewable energy sources increasing, reuse of waste-water
o
increasing


The Australian Government scene
• Australian Government NRM Team from DEWHA & DAFF
• “focus is on protecting our environment and natural resources, and
sustaining our agricultural industries and regional communities.”
• Caring for our Country
• Six national priority areas:
a national reserve system,
o

biodiversity and natural icons,
o

coastal environments and critical aquatic habitats,
o

sustainable farm practices,
o

natural resource management in remote and northern Australia, and
o

community skills, knowledge and engagement.
o

• Funding
$2.25 billion in funding over five years from 1 July 2008 to June 2013
o

Regional NRM organisations will be supported by $636 million as
o
secure base-level funding


NRM in Australia
Comparison of regional NRM bodies between Australian States
State Title Statutory Legal Key
(number) status responsibility state
agency
56 NRM regions
Property Vegetation Plans
NSW CMA Statutory DNR
in Australia
under the
(13)
Native Vegetation Act 2003
Beds, bank and floodplain of
Vic CMA Statutory DSE
river and the Catchment and
(10)
Land Protection Act 1994
WA Regional NRM Non - N/A DAF
or Catchment statutory
Councils (6)
SA Regional Statutory NRM Act water allocation DWLBC
planning and ensuring
NRM Boards
compliance for soil
(8)
conservation, pest plants and
animals and biodiversity
QLD Regional Non - N/A DNRW
committees, statutory
groups, assoc‟s
(14)
Develop and implement
Tas Regional NRM Statutory- DPIW
regional strategies
Committees(3) limited
Table from Pannell et al. 2007


The SA state scene
• State Strategic Plan
• “Attaining sustainability”
• Grand science plan STI10– “Constellation SA”
with Alliances, Clusters and Precincts
• SA Natural Resources Management Act 2004
• Natural Resource Management Council
• 8 NRM regions with Boards
• State NRM Plan of 2006
• Landscape scale management …adaptive to climate change
• Prosperous communities …within ecologically sustainable limits
• .. Capability…to manage natural resources in an integrated way
• Integrated management of biological threats
• Regional NRM Board
• “A healthy living landscape meeting the social, environmental and economic needs
of the community and ensuring the wellbeing of future generations”
• Budget ’08/09 - $78m (0.12% gross state product)


The SA NRM scene – operations and research
• SA Natural Resources Management Act 2004
• Commonwealth NRM through DEWHA, DAFF
• DWLBC (DEH, PIRSA, EPA)
• Natural Resource Management Council – STI Plan (2008)
• 8 NRM regions with Boards
• Research Providers
• Commonwealth – CSIRO, BRS, …
• SA – DWLBC, DEH, SARDI
• Universities – UA, FU, UniSA, CSU, UQ
• Research Funders
• Research providers
• Research & Development Corporations (RDC‟s)
• Regional NRM Boards / State agencies
• Bilateral Federal agreements NHT, NAP, Caring for our Country
• Research Facilitators
• NRM RA


The challenges in current NRM:
• The problem for SA regional NRM management:
• Government agency controlled with restrained leadership
• limited resources
• multiple demands
• an uncertain and changing future
• ad hoc prioritisation processes
• inconsistent monitoring with limited evidence that they are actually
making a difference.


Regional NRM – operating in the triple bottom line domain

Natural resources
Human & social
„environment‟
capital
• Atmosphere
Regional actions
Institutions variability and change
Vegetation management oClimate

• Soils
Community viability Endangered species protection
• Water
Jobs Ecological restoration
Resource condition monitoring oquantity

oquality
Conservation farming
• Biota
Deep rooted perennials
Biomass
Bio-fuels

Economics and
Integrated Landscape
finances
Science
Regional economics
Input/output analysis
Primary production
and flow on
Adapted from
Wayne Meyer 12/07


Landscape science developing in SA
• Mar07 - Concept: SA develops an internationally recognised Integrated
Landscape Science and Education capability
• Landscape Science Cluster formed –
• Jul07 - Landscape Science Cluster developed a case for “integrated
landscape science”
– develop research and outreach capability that
• Focuses on an NRM region and works with the implementers
• Uses models within GIS layers to project possible change in space and time
• Develops new engagement methods to change what people do and how they
visualise their future landscapes


Landscape Science Cluster - builds on experience and
capacity of Lower Murray Landscape Futures project
• Vision
• …. bring new knowledge to the conservation and management of our regional
landscapes.
• Mission
• Gather quality data and analyse landscape systems
• Improve processes of using evidence-based decision making, and
• educate and train people to apply landscape system models
• Key agencies
• CSIRO, SA DEH, DWLBC, SARDI, SA Regional NRM Boards, Universities:
Adelaide, Flinders, SA

6 April 2009 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 11

University of Adelaide response
• 2006 – 07, Sciences/EES positions:
• Climate Change,
• Water,
• Natural Resources Science,
• Plant Conservation
• Jul 07 - Nov 07
• Briefings to Deans on NRM and environment research opportunities
• Feb 08 – Consultancy report to DVC – R
“Developing a Prospectus for Research into Natural Resource Management
University of Adelaide, S A”


Why should UA be involved in this research?
• “The community has moved from dealing with single issues in the
landscape to requiring an understanding of how those issues impact
on each other…
• “Nationally there is significant resourcing available …
• “the policy expectation is that these investments are based on the best
science available.
• “Many of the funding bodies are seeking large collaborative projects
moving away from the individual projects supported in the past.
[From Consultancy report to DVC-R. “Developing a Prospectus for Research into Natural
Resource Management University of Adelaide, S A”]

• Nov 07 onwards – repositioning research profile through
“institutes”, “centres” and “programs”
• increase the opportunity for multi-disciplinary research
• Present a more consistent message to potential funders of a “research
intensive university”


University of Adelaide – positioning our research

Climate change and
adaptation
Landscape Futures

Aust. Centre
Marine
Ancient DNA
Biology

Water Research
Energy
Centre
Technology

Wayne Meyer 12/07
Modified 12/08


Landscape Futures Program
Vision
• … high performing team of researchers and
communicators
• …. bring new knowledge to the conservation and
management of our regional landscapes
• …. will be renowned for “landscape futures analysis”


What is “Landscape Futures analysis”?

Example regional NRM targets
• Sustain profitability
• Decrease wind erosion
• Decrease deep drainage by changing crops and vegetation to
better use rainfall
• Conserve remnant vegetation and biodiversity

Landscape Futures analysis
Determine the combination of land uses and maintenance
actions (space and time) that will be economically feasible
and socially acceptable


An example Landscape Futures analysis


Environment, dollars and people in a regional system


Least cost Best for biodiversity
More perennials
More targeted restoration
Scattered minimum till

Cost:
Cost:
-12.5% of agricultural GRP
-1.2% of agricultural GRP
-1.1% of total GRP
-0.1% of total GRP


What does this analysis tell us?
• Some targets are poorly conceived and/or are not feasible
• There are many options to achieve targets – costs vary
• Some management actions taken now will not perform well with
changed climate conditions
• NRM decisions can dramatically change what the landscape looks like
and how well it functions. These decisions have a greater effect than
climate change
How can developing a Landscape Futures analysis be used?
• Community engagement and consultation
• Collate and identify regional information
• Clarify target actions
• Provide evidence for and help prioritise management actions
• Retain information to assess the worth of previous actions
• Assist monitoring and demonstrate improvement and value for money


What is “Landscape Futures analysis”?

• Identify region and establish regional priorities – consult
• Test feasibility of “targets”
• Gather bio-physical and socio-economic data – discover
• Establish possible futures – consult and guess
• Run models – calibrate and test
• Set up multi-objective optimisation and look for feasible
options
• Present and explain - interact


Example: regional data centres


Example model estimation for yield, dry matter, deep drainage
and wind erosion risk


Data and process descriptions needed

• Climate data • Soils data
• • Texture (particle size)
Daily solar irradiance
• PAWC
Tmax , Tmin , Tdew o

• Ks (macropore)
o
Rain
Limiting drainage rate
•
o
Wind run (2m height)
• Effective soil depth
• Depth to water table
• Depth to piezometric
head
Point water balance
Ra + I + U ± S - D - Ro - Et = 0


Data and process descriptions needed

• Crop data • Vegetation data
• • Type and distribution
Type and variety
• • Canopy and condition
Sowing date
• • Ecosystem “value”
Agronomy
• Input costs and output
returns

Modelled dry matter accumulation and yield
Response to environmental stresses
Succession dynamics


Example model estimation of biomass for carbon market


Example model estimation of habitat and conservation distribution


LOWER MURRAY
LANDSCAPE FUTURES

http://www.landscapefutures.com.au/

28

Research to make a difference!
• Pulling it all together
• Suitable multi-objective optimization
• Representation / visualization of different landscapes

• System component representations/models
• Identifying biodiversity needs e.g. assigning eco-system minimum
and optimum requirements
• Incorporating community preferences

• Vegetation, crops, soils
• Assigning Et to variable vegetation under variable conditions
• Assigning runoff v‟s ponding v‟s infiltration


What resources?

Title/fund Date submitted Amount sought $ Status
NCRIS TERN* EOI: May2007 $20.1m (2.5 yrs) Officially approved
Contracts pending
Round 2: Jun2008
$7.75m
Final: 25Aug2008
DAFF Australia’s Farming Future* Aug 2008 $849k (3 yrs) Pending
Premiers Science and Research Oct 2008 (2nd rd) $1.26m (3 yrs) Contract being signed
Fund*
UA Environment Institute Nov 2008 $102k (4 yrs) Operating


Research foci:

• Improve and verify the modelling processes

• Identify the economic and community consequences (jobs and services)
of changing land use

• Test methods that monitor regional resource condition relative to plans
and actions

• Use animation and visualisation technology to communicate regional
landscape futures


Education and training foci:
• Graduate, postgraduate and professional development
• Revamp course with greater technological („whiz-bang‟) and
numerical content
• Market survey for coursework (grad dip, Masters)
• MBA (Business of NRM)



Landscape Futures
Program

Interested in making a difference? - contact Wayne Meyer


Place & Purpose 2009
Applying landscape science to Natural Resource
Management

30 September – 1 October 2009
Adelaide Convention Centre
A Symposium of the Spatial Sciences Institute Biennial International Conference

Spatial Science Conference
http://www.ssc2009.com/


Science Seminar Series 2009
April 20 2009

A New Taxonomy
International breakthroughs in internet and database
technology for taxonomic research

Presented by: Professor Norm Johnson, Ohio State University
Energy2009 S.F. Lincoln 35

Science Seminar Series 3 Wayne Meyer

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