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Measuring	
  the	
  Public	
  Health	
  Impacts	
  of	
  Air	
  
Pollu8on	
  in	
  Minnesota	
  
	
  
	
  


                 Naomi	
  Shinoda	
  
                 Minnesota	
  Department	
  of	
  Health	
  
                 Chronic	
  Disease	
  and	
  Environmental	
  Epidemiology	
  
                 Environmental	
  Public	
  Health	
  Tracking	
  and	
  Biomonitoring	
  	
  
Fine	
  par)cle	
  pollu)on:	
  PM2.5	
  
PM2.5	
  pyramid	
  of	
  health	
  effects	
  

                                   	
  
                                 Death	
  

                               Hospital	
  
                              admissions	
  
                          Emergency	
  room	
  
                               visits	
  
                             Doctor	
  visits	
  
                  Asthma	
  aBacks,	
  medica)on	
  
                          use,	
  symptoms	
  
              Lung	
  func)on	
  changes,	
  immune	
  cell	
  
                responses,	
  heart	
  rate	
  variability	
  
                            responses	
  
Air	
  pollu)on	
  epidemiology	
  studies	
  

¥  Health	
  impacts	
  are	
  measurable	
  

¥  Large	
  body	
  of	
  evidence	
  –	
  PM2.5	
  

¥  Respiratory	
  and	
  cardiovascular	
  effects	
  

¥  Effects	
  observed	
  even	
  at	
  low	
  concentra)ons	
  

¥  Long-­‐term	
  effects	
  à	
  increased	
  risk	
  

¥  Short-­‐term	
  effects	
  à	
  triggering/exacerba)ons	
  
Air	
  pollu)on	
  affects	
  en)re	
  popula)ons	
  
¥    Suscep)ble	
  popula)on	
  is	
  growing	
  
                                                                                           2004	
  
       ¥    Aging	
  popula)on	
  
       ¥    Increasing	
  obesity,	
  diabetes	
  rates	
  
¥    Effects	
  observed	
  in	
  children	
  
       ¥    Lung	
  development	
                                                         2009	
  

       ¥    Asthma	
  exacerba)ons	
  
¥               Even	
  very	
  small	
  increases	
  associated	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  with	
  disease	
  and	
  death	
  
                                                                            Obesity	
  in	
  MN	
  
AQI:	
  Number	
  of	
  unhealthy	
  air	
  days	
  in	
  MN	
  




                                   Source:	
  MN	
  Pollu)on	
  Control	
  	
  Agency	
  
Popula)ons	
   at	
  risk :	
  es)mated	
  numbers	
  
                             Duluth	
  MN-­‐WI	
  es8mates	
  
         Total	
  popula)on	
                           235,600	
  
         	
  	
  	
  	
  Children	
  under	
  18	
       47,900	
  
         	
  	
  	
  	
  Adults	
  65+	
                 37,100	
  
         Pediatric	
  asthma	
                              3,300	
  
         Adult	
  asthma	
                                 14,000	
  
         Chronic	
  bronchi)s	
                             8,300	
  
         Emphysema	
                                        3,900	
  
         Cardiovascular	
                                  65,400	
  
         Diabetes	
                                        13,600	
  
                                                   Source:	
  ALA	
  State	
  of	
  the	
  Air	
  2012	
  
Improving	
  air,	
  preven)ng	
  deaths	
  
¥    BenMAP	
  modeled	
                                                    MN	
  (2006)	
  
      predic)ons	
  

¥    Air	
  quality	
  improvement	
                                         5	
  
      scenarios	
  

¥    Es)mated	
  number	
  of	
  
      prevented	
  deaths	
                                                           78	
  	
  
                                                                                      (MSP	
  metro)	
  
¥    Scenario:	
  10%	
  reduc)on	
  
      in	
  PM2.5	
  concentra)ons	
  
                                                                              4	
  

                                     Source:	
  CDC	
  Environmental	
  Public	
  Health	
  Tracking	
  
Air	
  pollu)on	
  and	
  health	
  research	
  in	
  MN	
  

¥  Method	
  development	
  project	
  using	
  local	
  data	
  
    ¥    Develop	
  methods	
  for	
  local	
  area	
  analyses	
  

¥  Track	
  health	
  effects	
  associated	
  with	
  changes	
  in	
  
   air	
  quality	
  
    ¥  PM2.5	
  concentra)ons	
  
    ¥  Hospitaliza)ons	
  and	
  deaths	
  (respiratory,	
  
        cardiovascular)	
  
    ¥  2003-­‐2009	
  data	
  

    ¥  MSP	
  metro	
  and	
  Olmsted	
  County	
  
Air	
  pollu)on	
  and	
  health	
  research	
  in	
  MN	
  

 ¥    Associa)ons	
  found	
  in	
  the	
  MSP	
  metro	
  for	
  PM2.5	
  and	
  
       respiratory	
  hospitaliza)ons	
  

Hospitaliza8ons	
            Amount	
  aOributable	
  to	
  PM2.5	
  in	
  2003-­‐2009	
  
                             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Percent	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  #	
  hosp.	
  per	
  year	
  
Total	
  respiratory	
                                       1.9%	
                                                                                       224	
  
COPD	
  +	
  asthma	
                                        2.3%	
                                                                                       110	
  
Asthma	
                                                     2.3%	
                                                                                          54	
  
MN	
  air	
  pollu)on	
  reduc)on	
  ini)a)ves	
  
        ¥     Minnesota	
  Emissions	
  Reduc)on	
  Project	
  (MERP)	
  

        ¥    Diesel	
  retrofits	
  	
  
               ¥    School	
  buses;	
  heavy	
  duty	
  public	
  vehicles	
  
               ¥    Project	
  Green	
  Fleet	
  

        ¥    Other	
  local	
  ini)a)ves	
  
               ¥    An)-­‐idling	
  ordinances	
  
               ¥    Go	
  Greener	
  Ini)a)ve	
  (Met	
  Council)	
  

        ¥    Na)onal	
  ini)a)ves	
  
               ¥    Ultra	
  Low	
  Sulfur	
  Diesel	
  Fuel	
  Rule	
  
               ¥    Heavy	
  Duty	
  Diesel	
  Regula)ons	
  
               ¥    Transport	
  Rule	
  
Source:	
  MN	
  Pollu)on	
  Control	
  Agency	
  
MN	
  air	
  pollu)on	
  health	
  impacts	
  over	
  )me	
  
¥    MSP	
  metro:	
  decline	
  in	
  resp.	
  hosp.	
  aBributable	
  to	
  PM2.5	
  

                                             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Amount	
  aOributable	
  to	
  PM2.5	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Hospitaliza8ons	
   Time	
  period	
  
                                             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Percent	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  #	
  hosp./yr	
  
Total	
  respiratory	
     2003-­‐2005	
                         3.0%	
                                                             354	
  
                           2006-­‐2007	
                         2.6%	
                                                             309	
  
                           2008-­‐2009	
                           -­‐-­‐	
                                                          -­‐-­‐	
  
COPD	
  +	
  asthma	
      2003-­‐2005	
                         3.3%	
                                                             154	
  
                           2006-­‐2007	
                         2.9%	
                                                             140	
  
                           2008-­‐2009	
                           -­‐-­‐	
                                                          -­‐-­‐	
  
Asthma	
                   2003-­‐2005	
                         3.8%	
                                                               92	
  
                           2006-­‐2007	
                           -­‐-­‐	
                                                           -­‐-­‐	
  
                           2008-­‐2009	
                           -­‐-­‐	
                                                           -­‐-­‐	
  
Summary	
  

¥     Air	
  pollu)on	
  affects	
  health	
  even	
  at	
  low	
  levels	
  
¥     Air	
  pollu)on	
  affects	
  en)re	
  popula)ons	
  
¥     A	
  growing	
  number	
  of	
  Minnesotans	
  more	
  suscep)ble	
  
       to	
  air	
  quality	
  impacts	
  
BUT…	
  

	
  
¥     MN	
  has	
  been	
  making	
  improvements	
  in	
  air	
  quality	
  
¥     Con)nued	
  efforts	
  will	
  lead	
  to	
  a	
  healthier	
  MN	
  
	
  
	
  
Project	
  Team	
  
MN	
  Dept.	
  of	
  Health	
          MN	
  Pollu8on	
  Control	
  Agency	
     Olmsted	
  Medical	
  Center	
  
    Jean	
  Johnson	
                        Greg	
  PraO	
  	
                         Barbara	
  Yawn	
  
    Chuck	
  Stroebel	
                      Kari	
  Palmer	
                           Peter	
  Wollan	
  	
  
    Allan	
  Williams	
                      Margaret	
  McCourtney	
            	
  
    Naomi	
  Shinoda	
                       Cassie	
  McMahon	
  
    Wendy	
  Brunner	
                       Lisa	
  Herschberger	
  
    Paula	
  Lindgren	
  




                                  Measuring	
  the	
  Impact	
  of	
  Fine	
  Par)cles:	
  
                                  hBp://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/hpcd/cdee/airquality.html	
  
                                  	
  

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Shinoda - Measuring the Public Health Impacts of Air Pollution in Minnesota

  • 1.   Measuring  the  Public  Health  Impacts  of  Air   Pollu8on  in  Minnesota       Naomi  Shinoda   Minnesota  Department  of  Health   Chronic  Disease  and  Environmental  Epidemiology   Environmental  Public  Health  Tracking  and  Biomonitoring    
  • 3. PM2.5  pyramid  of  health  effects     Death   Hospital   admissions   Emergency  room   visits   Doctor  visits   Asthma  aBacks,  medica)on   use,  symptoms   Lung  func)on  changes,  immune  cell   responses,  heart  rate  variability   responses  
  • 4. Air  pollu)on  epidemiology  studies   ¥  Health  impacts  are  measurable   ¥  Large  body  of  evidence  –  PM2.5   ¥  Respiratory  and  cardiovascular  effects   ¥  Effects  observed  even  at  low  concentra)ons   ¥  Long-­‐term  effects  à  increased  risk   ¥  Short-­‐term  effects  à  triggering/exacerba)ons  
  • 5. Air  pollu)on  affects  en)re  popula)ons   ¥  Suscep)ble  popula)on  is  growing   2004   ¥  Aging  popula)on   ¥  Increasing  obesity,  diabetes  rates   ¥  Effects  observed  in  children   ¥  Lung  development   2009   ¥  Asthma  exacerba)ons   ¥  Even  very  small  increases  associated              with  disease  and  death   Obesity  in  MN  
  • 6. AQI:  Number  of  unhealthy  air  days  in  MN   Source:  MN  Pollu)on  Control    Agency  
  • 7. Popula)ons   at  risk :  es)mated  numbers   Duluth  MN-­‐WI  es8mates   Total  popula)on   235,600          Children  under  18   47,900          Adults  65+   37,100   Pediatric  asthma   3,300   Adult  asthma   14,000   Chronic  bronchi)s   8,300   Emphysema   3,900   Cardiovascular   65,400   Diabetes   13,600   Source:  ALA  State  of  the  Air  2012  
  • 8. Improving  air,  preven)ng  deaths   ¥  BenMAP  modeled   MN  (2006)   predic)ons   ¥  Air  quality  improvement   5   scenarios   ¥  Es)mated  number  of   prevented  deaths   78     (MSP  metro)   ¥  Scenario:  10%  reduc)on   in  PM2.5  concentra)ons   4   Source:  CDC  Environmental  Public  Health  Tracking  
  • 9. Air  pollu)on  and  health  research  in  MN   ¥  Method  development  project  using  local  data   ¥  Develop  methods  for  local  area  analyses   ¥  Track  health  effects  associated  with  changes  in   air  quality   ¥  PM2.5  concentra)ons   ¥  Hospitaliza)ons  and  deaths  (respiratory,   cardiovascular)   ¥  2003-­‐2009  data   ¥  MSP  metro  and  Olmsted  County  
  • 10. Air  pollu)on  and  health  research  in  MN   ¥  Associa)ons  found  in  the  MSP  metro  for  PM2.5  and   respiratory  hospitaliza)ons   Hospitaliza8ons   Amount  aOributable  to  PM2.5  in  2003-­‐2009                          Percent                                          #  hosp.  per  year   Total  respiratory   1.9%   224   COPD  +  asthma   2.3%   110   Asthma   2.3%   54  
  • 11. MN  air  pollu)on  reduc)on  ini)a)ves   ¥  Minnesota  Emissions  Reduc)on  Project  (MERP)   ¥  Diesel  retrofits     ¥  School  buses;  heavy  duty  public  vehicles   ¥  Project  Green  Fleet   ¥  Other  local  ini)a)ves   ¥  An)-­‐idling  ordinances   ¥  Go  Greener  Ini)a)ve  (Met  Council)   ¥  Na)onal  ini)a)ves   ¥  Ultra  Low  Sulfur  Diesel  Fuel  Rule   ¥  Heavy  Duty  Diesel  Regula)ons   ¥  Transport  Rule  
  • 12. Source:  MN  Pollu)on  Control  Agency  
  • 13. MN  air  pollu)on  health  impacts  over  )me   ¥  MSP  metro:  decline  in  resp.  hosp.  aBributable  to  PM2.5            Amount  aOributable  to  PM2.5             Hospitaliza8ons   Time  period                Percent                                #  hosp./yr   Total  respiratory   2003-­‐2005   3.0%   354   2006-­‐2007   2.6%   309   2008-­‐2009   -­‐-­‐   -­‐-­‐   COPD  +  asthma   2003-­‐2005   3.3%   154   2006-­‐2007   2.9%   140   2008-­‐2009   -­‐-­‐   -­‐-­‐   Asthma   2003-­‐2005   3.8%   92   2006-­‐2007   -­‐-­‐   -­‐-­‐   2008-­‐2009   -­‐-­‐   -­‐-­‐  
  • 14. Summary   ¥  Air  pollu)on  affects  health  even  at  low  levels   ¥  Air  pollu)on  affects  en)re  popula)ons   ¥  A  growing  number  of  Minnesotans  more  suscep)ble   to  air  quality  impacts   BUT…     ¥  MN  has  been  making  improvements  in  air  quality   ¥  Con)nued  efforts  will  lead  to  a  healthier  MN      
  • 15. Project  Team   MN  Dept.  of  Health   MN  Pollu8on  Control  Agency   Olmsted  Medical  Center   Jean  Johnson   Greg  PraO     Barbara  Yawn   Chuck  Stroebel   Kari  Palmer   Peter  Wollan     Allan  Williams   Margaret  McCourtney     Naomi  Shinoda   Cassie  McMahon   Wendy  Brunner   Lisa  Herschberger   Paula  Lindgren   Measuring  the  Impact  of  Fine  Par)cles:   hBp://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/hpcd/cdee/airquality.html