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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
09 Apr 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
APR 8890 9292 8800 9292 +4.00 13240
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
8964
SUPP. 2
8636
PIVOT
9128
Coriander short term
trend is up, further
more upside is expected
in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9456
RES. 2
9620
CASTORSEED
APR. 3624 3658 3604 3652 +1.11 17940
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3618
SUPP. 2
3584
PIVOT
3638
Castorseed short term
trend is up, Prices
expected to go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3672
RES. 2
3692
TURMERIC
APR 7810 7948 7728 7928 +1.80 8775
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7788
SUPP. 2
7648
PIVOT
7868
Turmeric short term
trend is up and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8008
RES. 2
8088
GUARGUM
APR. 9230 9570 9110 9570 +3.91 5007
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
9263
SUPP. 2
8957
PIVOT
9417
Guargum Short term
trend is up, Expecting
price may go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9723
RES. 2
9877
3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-04-2015 9292.00 377.00 4.23%
BARLEY 20-04-2015 1138.00 39.50 3.60%
JEERA 20-04-2015 16185.00 465.00 2.96%
CHANA 20-04-2015 3896.00 111.00 2.93%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 7910.00 110.00 1.41%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-04-2015 3572.00 44.00 1.25%
SOYABEAN 20-04-2015 3577.00 36.00 1.02%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-04-2015 3645.00 32.00 0.89%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-04-2015 1732.00 2.00 0.12%
V 797 KAPAS 30-04-2015 840.50 0.50 0.06%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-04-2015 605.25 -0.05 -0.01%
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3652 3612 +1.11
CHANA 3881 3786 +2.51
CORIANDER 9292 8935 +4.00
GUARGUM 9570 9210 +3.91
JEERA 16365 15740 +3.97
MUSTARD SEED 3572 3528 +1.25
SOYABEAN 3590 3548 +1.18
TURMERIC 7928 7788 +1.80
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Wheat production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is
expected to fall 4-5% short of the earlier estimate of 95.76 million
tonne in the current season because of unseasonal rains that hit
ready-to-harvest crop in some parts of the country. This estimate is
based on initial reports, agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said
on Tuesday while addressing a conference on kharif crops. The
country produced 95.85 million tonne of wheat in 2013-14.
According to the estimates, unseasonal rains and hailstorms damaged
rabi crops in about 11.3 million hectares in the past few days, Singh
said. The total cultivable area in rabi season is estimated at 60
million hectares.The drop in production however is unlikely to make
any impact on wheat and wheat products prices, "We have a
carryover stock of 18 million tonne from the previous year With such
huge stock, prices are expected to be stable." Rains in the past few
days have led to white and black pest infestation, discolouration of
grain and further impact yields. it hardly matters if the wheat is
lustreless (in outer appearance) or not because he is concerned only
about the quality of the flour.The agriculture minister has asked
states to utilise funds under State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF)
for providing financial assistance to farmers affected by unseasonal
rains. The government has also set up an informal group of ministers,
headed by home minister Rajnath Singh, to look into the possibility
of raising the cap on financial assistance given to farmers in such
cases. "The Centre is ready to give additional funds to states once
they utilize those available with them under SDRF. A central team
has already visited seven states to assess the crop loss,”. According
to an earlier estimate given by the government on March 26, rains
between February last week and mid-March damaged crops on over
10.67 million hectare. As per that, the maximum damage was
reported from Rajasthan, followed by Uttar Pradesh and Haryana..
Strong stockiest buying continued in chana market on the account of limited
supplies in local mandies.The arrivals in Delhi reported at 25 trucks today as
compared to 30 trucks average in the previous week. The prices are trading at
Rs 3850 per quintal, up Rs 50 from the last day. Traders stated that weak
production in the current year support prices in the coming days.As per 2nd
Advance Estimates for 2014-15, total food grains production in India is
estimated at 257.07 million tons– lower by 3% w.r.t. 265.57 million tons
previous year. Production of pulses estimated at 18.43 million tonnes is lower
by 1.35 million tonnes than the last year’s production. Chana production
estimated at 8.28 million tons vs 9.53 million tons last year. India has imported
36.63 lakh tons of pulses during April-December 2014-15 and it is expected to
cross 40 lakh tons in the whole fiscal year.
Coriander futures prolonged its rallies supported by reports on crop damage
amid strong demand in the spot markets.Untimely rains in the key growing
areas and reports of crop damage are likely to limit the major fall in prices in
the near term. Lack of arrival of quality spice may also push the prices
higher.However, profit booking may not be ruled out as high carryover stocks
and market reopening might hinder major upside. Meanwhile, coriander export
remain unchanged and stood at 34,000 tonnes during Apr- Dec 2014-15.
Moderate corrections were noted for Turmeric after the recent highs as the
demand got adversely affected. Poor quality stocks kept pressure on prices.
However, reports of improved Festive season demand from North India for
good quality stocks could ensure moderate recovery in coming days.Side ways
trade can be expected for both short term and intra day. Turmeric April contract
was trading up by 0.74 per cent to 7846 level around 11.24 am on Wednesday
at NCDEX.There are also reports of stockists reportedly holding on to the
stocks in anticipation of a recovery in price. A fall in production from adverse
weather conditions could also keep medium term sentiments firm. Agriculture
Department estimates put turmeric production this year at around 3.7 million
bags compared with 5.2 million bags a year ago. Low quality arrivals had kept
pressure on prices.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
India exported around 7.35 lakh bales of cotton during March’15 around 10.03%
higher when compared to the exports during previous month. Imports on other
remained higher this month by 4.2% at 0.74 lakh bales which was 0.71 lakh bales in
February. Cotton exports so far (i.e. Oct’14-Mar’15) stood around 55.5% lower Y-o-Y
at 39.4 lakh bales which was 88.6 lakh bales during the same period last year. Imports
during the current season so far stood 5.62 lakh bales which was 2.89 lakh bales last
year. Textile minister Santosh Gangwar should direct Cotton Corporation of India to
immediately commence selling the cotton through the e-auction to actual users with
liberal credit norms, (SIMA). Gujarat has contributed 108 lakh bales of cotton in the
country's total production estimates of 390 lakh bales during the season 2014-15
against 370 lakh bales in 2013-14, said CCI. Maharashtra would stand around at 83
lakh bales, Telangana at 57 lakh bales, Karnataka at 30 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh at
27 lakh bales, Haryana at 25 lakh bales, Rajasthan at 17 lakh bales, Punjab at 14 lakh
bales, Tamil Nadu at 5 lakh bales Orissa at 4 lakh bales and others collectively at 2
lakh bales. According to CCI the figures could surge up further as estimates from
many areas are still awaited. During the initial four months of season, cotton
consumption recorded at 1714 million kgs which is 3.5% higher than the consumption
during corresponding period last year. Similarly cotton yarn production too remained
higher in this year. Cumulative cotton yarn production during the initial four month of
the season stood 1368 million kgs around 3.39% higher when compared to
corresponding period last year.
China cotton acreage could drop by 20% in the coming season due to change in the
government policies which led lower subsidies to the many growers, according to a
survey report by China's State Reserves. Cotton acreage in China could fall to 3.4
million hectares in the forthcoming season, 20.1% lower when compared to current
season. USA is expected to lower its cotton acreage this season to 9.428 million acres,
-14.6% lower when compared to acreage of 2014 which was 11.037 million acres. The
major cotton growing region, Texas is likely to witness a fall of 13.8% in cotton
acreage and would plant 5.343 million acres of cotton in 2015,compared to 6.2 million
acres previous year, said National Cotton Council (NCC). China imported 159,100
metric tons of cotton in February this year, 35.3% lower when compared to imports
during the same month previous year.
CENTER 08-Apr-15 07-Apr-15 Change
AMRAVATI 12500 11500 +1000
MAHESANA NA NA -
RAJKOT 3200 2400 +800
PATAN 3650 3137 +513
DEESA NA NA -
BHIWANI NR 500 -
GONDAL 795 696 +99
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER APRIL ABOVE 9350 TARGET 9375 9415 SL
BELOW9325
BUY GUARGUM APRIL ABOVE 9610 TARGET 9660 9720 SL
BELOW 9550
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 7970 TARGET 8010 8070 SL
BELOW 7910
BUY CASTORSEED APRIL ABOVE 3660 TARGET 3685 3715 SL
BELOW 3635
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