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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
24 July 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
AUG 7180 7180 6970 6984 -2.16 12675
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
6909
SUPP. 2
6835
PIVOT
7045
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7119
RES. 2
7255
CORIANDER
AUG 12000 12099 11920 11970 -0.33 7800
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11894
SUPP. 2
11817
PIVOT
11996
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12073
RES. 2
12175
GUARGUM
OCT 8850 9050 8600 8610 -3.26 10865
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8457
SUPP. 2
8303
PIVOT
8753
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8907
RES. 2
9203
CASTORSEED
AUG 3981 3996 3920 3920 -1.53 44490
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3895
SUPP. 2
3869
PIVOT
3945
Castorseed short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3971
RES. 2
4021
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3926 3987 -1.53
CHANA 4592 4652 -1.29
CORIANDER 11970 12010 -0.33
GUARGUM 8610 8900 -3.26
JEERA 15600 15825 -1.42
MUSTARD
SEED
4121 4181 -1.44
SOYABEAN 3282 3360 -2.32
TURMERIC 7984 7138 -2.16
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
SOYABEAN 20-08-2015 3293.00 -59.00 -1.76%
TURMERIC 20-08-2015 7034.00 -116.00 -1.62%
CHANA 20-08-2015 4592.00 -56.00 -1.20%
JEERA 20-08-2015 15645.00 -190.00 -1.20%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-08-2015 1896.00 -22.00 -1.15%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-08-2015 3936.00 -44.00 -1.11%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-08-2015 4139.00 -38.00 -0.91%
CORIANDER 20-08-2015 11975.00 -75.00 -0.62%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-08-2015 573.05 -3.15 -0.55%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
BARLEY 20-08-2015 1179.00 1.00 0.08%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The monsoon's unexpectedly good run and timely rain in parched regions
has raised the prospects of a bigger kharif harvest than last year and
moderate food prices, setting the stage for a rate cut as inflation worries
have receded. The next monetary policy announcement by the central bank
is scheduled for August 4.Crops in some parts of the country are still
stressed by erratic rain. But analysts and economists are optimistic as
surplus rainfall in June encouraged farmers to plant crops on a much larger
area than last year."Because of higher sowing area the production is
expected to rise this year," said Anis Chakravarty, chief economist and
senior director at Deloitte India. "Nearly 50% of our foodgrains are
produced during the kharif season. Based on present indicators, it is
expected that kharif production will be higher this year compared to 2014
when the monsoon was delayed." The monsoon has been better than
expected, helping water reservoirs fill up 12% more than normal, while the
area under crops is 62% higher than last year.The situation has improved
significantly in the past few days in parts of western and central India that
had been facing a severe dry patch."The crop that we had lost on 2 lakh
hectares in Malwa region of Madhya Pradesh will be resown now and
another 4 lakh hectares to 5 lakh hectares will come under soybean
cultivation in the state. The crop in Maharashtra is still surviving but is
under moisture stress. If it does not rain in another week, there can be yield
loss," said Davish Jain, chairman of the Soyabean Processors
Association.Major impact is unlikely if the seasonal monsoon deficit is
curbed at 10%, said Trilochan Mohapatra, director at the Central Rice
Research Institute in Cuttack."Rice production should be between 102
million tonnes, which it was in 2014, and 106 million tonnes, which it was
in 2013," he said. "Current rainfall is very encouraging to farmers. If
distribution of rains is same and there are no major spells of drought, we
should not worry about the deficit."The Indian Sugar Mills Association
(ISMA) said that the standing sugarcane crop was in good health and is
doing well. Sugarcane planting is currently down by 7% at 4.5 million
hectares from the previous year.
Chana settled up driven by pickup in demand against declining
supplies at major trading stations. Besides, restricted arrivals from
producing regions also supported chana prices. As per latest Govt
reports, the area under Kharif Pulses has risen to 55.99 lakh ha as on
17th July vs 23.92 lakh ha same period last year. Above normal rains in
Central and South India have improved sowing, keeping prices down
for Chana in June. Month of July however saw a bounceback as rainfall
activities slowed down. That is however again expected to pick up in
coming days.According to the govt data, country has imported about
4.19 lakh tonnes of chana in 2014-15, which is more than 51.8 per cent
higher than the quantity imported in the entire previous year. Total
import of chana in 2013-14 stood at 2.76 lakh tonnes. As per 3rd
Advance Estimates for 2014-15, Chana production is estimated at 7.59
million tonnes (mt) against 8.28 mt in 2nd estimate. Earlier
Government has extended duty free imports of pulses including chana
till September 2015. India's 2014-15 total chana output is at 7.59
million tons as compared to 9.93 million tons a year ago due to lower
sowing and untimely rains.
Selling intensified in castor seed due to strong sowing progress of
kharif oilseeds coupled with weak castor oil export demand in local
mandies.The NCDEX futures declined by 1.50 percent yesterday.As
per latest data release by government , the area under major kharif
oilseed has been increased by almost 233% as on 17th July to reach
127.12 lakh hectares due to early sowing of major oilseeds. The
sources also added that favourable rainfall in major castor seed growing
regions such as Gujarat will encourage strong sowing in the current
year.The prices were also daunted by weak export demand of meal and
oil in local mandies. Traders stated that higher prices of castor seed in
physical mandies have reduced the offtake of exporters. Moreover,
slowdown in Chinese economy will also limit the demand of castor oil
in the coming days.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is getting good response for its e-
auctions, said India Cotton Federation (ICF). Miller, traders and exporters are
buying cotton from CCI according to their current and future requirements.
Currently CCI is holding the unsold stock of approximately 62 lakh bales out
of approximately 87 lakh, which it procured in the current season under the
MSP operation.
Around 86.02% of the cotton sowing has been completed in Gujarat,
according to State Agriculture Department. Area sown under cotton as on 20
July 2015 stood 23.45 lakh hectares in Gujarat against the total normal area of
27.26 lakh hectares and previous year as on date area of 17.77 lakh hectares.
In Andhra Pradesh, around 20.49% of the cotton planting has been
completed so far. Around 1.19 lakh hectares of cotton has been planted as on
15 July 2015 which is around 40% lower when compared to the area sown for
cotton during the same period last year which was 1.96 lakh hectares.
Cotton output in India is likely to be around 6.423 million tones (377.8 lakh
bales of 170 kg each.) in the season 2015-16, same as the output of season
2014-15, according to USDA. The country is likely to export 1.023 million
tones (60.17 lakh bales of 170 kg each.) of cotton in 2015-16, around 17.45%
higher when compared to export in season 2014-15 which was 0.871 million
tones (51.23 lakh bales of 170 kg each), said USDA.
In its July estimates, USDA estimated world cotton export to be around
7.413 million tones in season 2015- 16, around 1.6% lower when compared to
export in the current season that is 2014-15. Except India and Uzbekistan,
where exports would be on higher side and Burkina where export would
remain steady, all the major exporting countries are likely to face fall in
exports.
CENTER 23-July-15 22-July-15 Change
RAJKOT NA 4720 -
BHIWANI 4600 4600 UNCH
ADAMPUR 4765 4770 -5
AHMEDABAD NA NA -
GONDAL NA NA -
GUNTUR 4050 4050 UNCH
RAICHUR 4750 4650 +100
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER AUG BELOW 11890 TARGET 11865 11825 SL
ABOVE 11920
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 8860 TARGET 8910 8980 SL
BELOW 8800
BUY TURMERIC AUG ABOVE 7080 TARGET 7120 7180 SL
BELOW 7020
SELL CASTORSEED AUG BELOW 3920 TARGET 3895 3865 SL
ABOVE 3950
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