10. • 520 miles.
• An international harbor city.
• Water as part of New
Yorker’s daily experience.
THE OPPORTUNITY
11. VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
VISION 2020 PROCESS
Phase 1: Identify Goals and Issues, Spring 2010
• Citywide Public Meeting, April 8
Phase 2: Identify Opportunities and Priorities, Summer 2010
• The Bronx Workshop, May 12
• Brooklyn, May 17
• Queens, June 2
• Manhattan Workshop, June 8
• Staten Island, June 28
• The Blue Network, June 24 and July 19
Phase 3: Identify Recommendations, Fall 2010
• Draft Recommendations Issued, September 7
• Citywide Public Meeting, October 12
12. VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
VISION 2020 PROCESS
13.
14. GOAL 1
Expand public access
to the waterfront and
waterways on public
and private property
for all New Yorkers and
visitors alike.
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Franklin D. Roosevelt Boardwalk
and Beach on the Atlantic Ocean
Staten Island
Daniel Avila, NYC Department of Parks & Recreation
15. GOAL 2
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Enliven the waterfront
with a range of
attractive uses
integrated with
adjacent upland
communities.
Walkway at Northside Pier in
Williamsburg, Brooklyn
17. GOAL 4
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Improve water quality
through measures that
benefit natural habitats,
support public
recreation, and
enhance waterfront
and upland
communities.
Oysters from the Bay Ridge Flats
Restoration Project..
18. GOAL 5
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Restore degraded
natural waterfront
areas, and protect
wetlands and shorefront
habitats.
American Oystercatchers in
Jamaica Bay.
Dan Riepe
19. GOAL 6
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Enhance the public
experience of the
waterways that
surround New York—our
Blue Network.
On the Hudson River near the
George Washington Bridge.
Daniel Avila, NYC Department of Parks & Recreation
20. GOAL 7
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Improve government
regulation,
coordination, and
oversight of the
waterfront and
waterways.
Construction of the new WNYC Transmitter Park on
the East River, Brooklyn
21. GOAL 8
VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN
Identify and pursue
strategies to increase
the city’s resilience to
climate change and
sea level rise.
The seawall at Battery Park City,
Manhattan
23. What is the WRP?
The Waterfront Revitalization
Program is a regulatory
review tool.
All projects within New York
City’s Coastal Zone which
require a federal, state or
city discretionary action are
subject to WRP review.
23
Background
24. There are 10 policy areas in the WRP:
1. Residential and Commercial Redevelopment
2. Maritime and Industrial Development
3. Waterways Usage
4. Ecological Resources Protection
5. Water Quality
6. Flooding and Erosion
7. Hazardous Materials
8. Public Access
9. Visual Quality
10. Historic, Archaeological, and Cultural Resources
24
Background
25. Introduce Climate Change to the WRP
25
• Require projects to closely examine
the risks associated with coastal
flooding based on climate change
projections.
Governors Island Park Master Plan takes in sea level rise into
consideration, elevating many sections of the park above
the projected future flood plain.
Image: West 8 Team
27. The coastal zone is large and
diverse. Different areas face
different risks and will require
different strategies.
Alley Pond Creek, Queens
Rockaways, Queens
Upper Bay
Williamsburg, Brooklyn
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
28. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
28
Coastal hazards range from sudden and severe events to gradual changes
in conditions.
High Tide Flooding Due to Sea Level Rise
Long Term Erosion
Storm Surge Flooding
Rapid Erosion
Wave Forces
Coastal Hazards
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
29. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies 29
Geologic Formations
Sources: Reconnaissance Soil Survey, New
York City Soil and Water Conservation
District, 2005
Landforms created by glacial
processes relate to underlying soil
composition and land elevation.
Lower-lying areas are generally more
vulnerable to storm surge. Softer soils
are generally more vulnerable to
erosion.
30. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies 30
Exposure to Wave Forces
Areas with a greater distance to an
adjacent shoreline (“fetch”) are more
exposed to waves.
High Fetch
Low Fetch
Waves are also highly dependent on
the direction of winds during a storm.
FEMA’s V zones are mapped to areas
where there is a risk of significant wave
action.
FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas
31. CONFIDENTIAL
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Some low-lying areas of New York City will be flooded in the future from
regular tides, even without a coastal storm.
Coastal Area Typologies
Hamilton Beach, Queens, Spring High Tide
32. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies 32
Geomorphology Categories
Oceanfront Beaches
Bay and estuary plains, natural shores
Bay and estuary plains, hardened shores
Oceanfront plains, hardened shores
Sheltered Rocky Bluffs
Sheltered Bluffs, reinforced shores
Oceanfront Slopes
Sheltered Slopes, hardened shores
Rocky/Sandy Sheltered Slopes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exposure to: Surge Erosion Waves
High Medium Low
SLR
33. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies 33
Land Use Types
One-Two Family Buildings
Multi-family Walkup Buildings
Multi-family Elevator Buildings
Mixed commercial/residential
Commercial – Office Buildings
Industrial - Manufacturing
Transportation - Utility
Public Facilities - Institutions
Open Space
Parking Facilities
Vacant Land
We sampled 65 areas of the city to
arrive at coastal area typologies.
34. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
34Coastal Area Typologies
Selected Typology Open Space
Low/Medium
Density Industrial
Industrial/Low
Density Residential
Industrial/ Medium
Density Residential
Low Density
Residential
Medium Density
Residential
High Density
Residential /
Commercial
Very High Density
Commercial
Oceanfront Beaches
Orchard Beach
(#527) (also Breezy
Point; Great Kills
Park)
Midland Beach
(#459); Belle Harbor
South (#433); Sea
Gate (#49);
Manhattan Beach
(#56)
Coney Island West
(#54); Rockaway
Beach (#530)
Bay and estuary plains,
natural shores
Pelham Bay Park
(#290) (also Jamaica
Bay, portions of
Staten Island West
Shore)
Kreisherville (#491)
(Also Gowanus Bay,
Flushing Creek)
Douglaston (#351);
Broad Channel
(#393); Far
Rockaway (#400);
Canarsie (#98)
Marine Park (#71);
Edgemere (#405);
Starrett City (#531);
Coop City (#273)
Bay and estuary plains,
hardenedshores
Bloomfield (#506);
Bowery Bay (#318;
Newtown Creek East
(#529)
Gowanus East (#528);
Gowanus West (#24);
Red Hook (#21);
Newtown Creek West
(#2); Greenpoint
North (#7); Long
Island City(#306);
Mott Haven (#205);
Greenpoint West
(#10); Sherman Creek
(#144);
Gerritsen Beach
(#68); Great Kills
(#471); Howard
Beach North (#361);
Belle Harbor North
(#412)
East Harlem South
(#156); East Village
(#166); East Harlem
North (#152); North
Corona (#325)
Chelsea (#120),
Soho/Tribeca (#117)
Battery Park City
(#115); Lower
Manhattan (#171)
Oceanfront plains, hardened
shores Gravesend Bay Bath Beach
ShelteredSlopes, hardened
shores
Flushing Bay (#331);
Port Morris (#290);
Sunset Park South
(#30)
Mariner's Harbor
(#516)
DUMBO (#15);
Edgewater (#526)
Throggs Neck (#258);
Whitestone (#340);
Country Club (#266);
City Island (#297);
College Point (#335)
Bay Ridge (#35);
Astoria (#310)
Brooklyn Heights
(#18); Kips Bay
(#163)
Rocky/Sandy Sheltered
Slopes
Westchester Creek
(#248)
Lower Bronx River
(#218)
Riverdale (#191)
Oceanfront slopes Butler Manor Woods
Prince's Bay (#478);
Tottenville (#484)
Sheltered, rocky bluffs Inwood Hill Park Norwood (#224)
Shelteredbluffs, reinforced
shores
West Harlem (#134);
Morris Heights
(#199)
Upper West Side
(#126)
35. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies 35
Land Use Types
One-Two Family Buildings
Multi-family Walkup Buildings
Multi-family Elevator Buildings
Mixed commercial/residential
Commercial – Office Buildings
Industrial - Manufacturing
Transportation - Utility
Public Facilities - Institutions
Open Space
Parking Facilities
Vacant Land
We sampled 65 areas of the city to
arrive at coastal area typologies.
36. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Coastal Area Typologies
Different areas
face specific
types and levels
of risks, and
therefore require
different
strategies.
37. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Miami Beach
37
COASTAL REACH STRATEGIES
In-Land Shoreline In-Water
Bulkhead
Seawall
Revetment
Levee/Dike
Beaches & Dunes
Groin
Floating
Islands
Living Shoreline
Breakwater
Artificial Reef
Constructed
Wetland
Constructed
Breakwater
Island
Coastal
Morphology
Modification
Elevate
Land
Floodwall
Waterfront
Park
Strategic
Retreat
Multi-purpose
Levee
Surge
Barrier
Protect building
systems
Dry floodproofing
Elevate on enclosure/
Wet floodproofing
Elevate on fill
Or mound
Elevate on piles
Site protection
Floating Structures
Amphibious Structures
BUILDING & SITE SCALE STRATEGIES
There are many potential strategies at various scales.
OTHER RELATED STRATEGIES
Infrastructure Adaptation
Land use management
Insurance
Emergency Preparedness
Polder
Inventory of Adaptive Strategies
38. 38
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Strategies for New Construction
Elevate on Piles
Strategies for New Construction
Staten Island, South Shore
39. 39
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Strategies for Existing Buildings
Protect Building
Systems
Strategies for New Construction
Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana
40. 40
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Shoreline Strategies
Seawall
Strategies for New Construction
Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana
Blackpool, United Kingdom (Image Credit: AECOM)
41. 41
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
In-Water Strategies
Artificial Reef
Strategies for New Construction
Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana
Reef Balls. Image courtesy of NY/NJ Baykeeper. Fort Pierce Marina, Florida.
42. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Evaluation Framework and Process: What? Where? And When?
This is a flexible process to identify strategies that can implemented across various physical and time scales.
42Evaluation Framework
Assess Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Risk2
Identify Potential Strategies3
Evaluate Potential Strategies4
Develop Adaptation Pathways5
Implement Strategies6
Identify Study Area and Sub-Areas1
Monitor
and
reassess.
43. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Hazards with the greatest consequences and highest probabilities present a
higher risk than those will low consequences or low probabilities.
Risk can be managed through mitigation actions that reduce the likelihood of
an impact or the magnitude of consequences, but risk cannot be fully
eliminated.
Likelihood of an
event
Magnitude of
consequences
Risk
Risk is defined as a product of the likelihood of an event occurring (typically
expressed as a probability) and the magnitude of consequences should
that event occur.
43Risk and Vulnerability
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
44. Assess Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Risk
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Risk is an interaction between coastal hazards and vulnerabilities.
Coastal Hazards
Vulnerabilities
Tidal Flooding
Populations
Built Environment
Infrastructure
Natural Resources
RISK
Storm surge
Erosion
Waves
Storm Surge
For example,
Built Environment
44Risk and Vulnerability
COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
45. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Types of CostsTypes of Benefits
Residual risk
Construction, maintenance and operation costs
Environmental degradation
Socioeconomic and equity impacts
Negative impacts on public realm/urban design
Contributions to climate change
Inconsistency with local goals and plans
Risk Reduction
Avoided costs
Environmental benefits
Socioeconomic and equity benefits
Improvements to the public realm/urban design
Climate mitigation benefits
Furthering local goals, plans
Evaluation of costs and benefits should look at direct & indirect metrics, and
quantifiable and non-quantifiable categories.
45Evaluation and Implement
46. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Urban Waterfront Adaptive Strategies is an information resource and
guide with broad applicability, for example:
46Applications
For the SIRR report, A Stronger, More
Resilient New York
For the Army Corps North Atlantic
Coast Comprehensive Study
For local communities developing
adaptation plans
Informed the analysis and recommendations
for coastal strategies.
A catalog of potential measures and
framework for measuring costs and benefits.
Guidance on approaching a complicated
decision-making process.
47. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Special Initiative
for Rebuilding
and Resiliency:
A Stronger, More
Resilient New
York
47
47
Photo: dland Studio
48. CONFIDENTIAL
Overview
In response to Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg set up a special initiative (“SIRR”) to answer three
key questions.
Question 2 Question 3
How do we
rebuild post-Sandy
and prepare
for a future with
climate change?
What could happen
in
the future?
Question 1
What happened
during Sandy and
why?
49. CONFIDENTIAL
Hurricane Sandy’s most distinctive feature was its record-shattering surge (and relatively low wind and rain),
caused by the confluence of highly unusual factors.
Source: UCAR/ NCAR, NOAA
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
Sandy eclipsed the previous record, set in 1960, by almost 40%
Note:
Among top 10 high
water marks at the
Battery since 1900, all
are post-1950
Top Ten High-Water Events at the Battery, 1900-2012
50. Source: NASA, NOAA, AGU Blogosphere,
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
Hurricane Katrina (August 28, 2005) Hurricane Sandy (October 28, 2012)
Hurricane Wind Fields
100 milesScale:
Gusts extended 1,000 milesGusts extended 300 miles
Among Sandy’s distinctive features was a wind field that was more than three times that
of Katrina…
51. Cause of the Westward Hook:
Jet stream: Hurricane Sandy was steered between a
blocking high pressure system in northern Canada and a
low pressure trough over the Southeast U.S.
Source: Bostinno.com, NOAA, AGU Blogosphere, National Weather Service, Slate.com
…Sandy also took a path that included a rare “westward hook,” rather than a more
traditional northeasterly path, putting the city in the path of its onshore winds…
If Sandy had not been reclassified a “post-
tropical cyclone” shortly before crossing the
NJ coast, it would have been only the third
hurricane to hit NJ since 1878
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
53. CONFIDENTIAL
…In fact, had Sandy arrived nine hours earlier, it likely would have had a significant impact
on communities and infrastructure in the Bronx and Northern Queens.
Sandy Inundation: Actual
Question 1: What Could Happen in the Future?
Sandy Inundation: Simulated 9 Hrs Earlier
More significant impacts than were experienced during
Sandy likely would have occurred at Hunts Point,
LaGuardia Airport, key power generation facilities, and
other locations
54. CONFIDENTIAL
10/29 – 8:00pm 10/29 – 10:00pm
The change in wind direction from the northeast to the
southeast increased wave action along the city’s Ocean-facing shoreline
…The direction of the wind – and shifts in its direction – also helped determine the
extent of damage in different parts of the city.
Wind
predominantly
out of the
northeast,
driving
southwesterly
Wind
predominantly
out of the
southeast,
driving
northwesterly
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
55. CONFIDENTIAL
The confluence of all of these factors led to particularly significant damage along the
Atlantic Coast and in the Harbor.
STILLWATER FLOODING
Harbor and other areas to the north generally
experienced inundation only
Flooding caused damage primarily to
building systems and contents, as well as
critical infrastructure
SURGE AND WAVE ACTION
Ocean-facing shorelines experienced
inundation plus wave action
Wave action plus smaller, lighter building
stock caused damage to building systems
and contents and critical infrastructure
and caused severe structural damage to
buildings (especially along ocean
shoreline)
Stillwater FloodingSurge and Wave Action
Upper
Harbor
Atlantic Coast
DOB Tagging by Flood Type and Geography
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
56. CONFIDENTIAL
Sandy’s massive, but idiosyncratic, impact on New York City teaches three important
lessons.
1. The City should not focus on preparing for
“the next Sandy”
An exact repeat of Sandy is highly
unlikely (though not impossible)
2. That said, Sandy devastated many of those
impacted and the City must help them
rebuild
3. And, even if it may not repeat again exactly,
Sandy serves as a harbinger of a type of
risk to which New York is (and will
increasingly be) vulnerable
Lessons of Hurricane Sandy
Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
57. CONFIDENTIAL
FEMA’s new Preliminary Work Maps, though, are only one of the pieces needed to
solve the city’s climate risk puzzle.
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
Future Risks of Downpours Future Risks of Heat Waves
Future Risks of Drought Future Risks of Sea Level Rise
PWMs Maps are based on historic data and do not address…
58. CONFIDENTIAL
An important tool for understanding the risks facing the city from climate change is the
New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), created out of PlaNYC...
Background
Advises City on latest climate science
Codified in August 2012 legislation, requiring regular updates
Member and Technical Team Institutions
Columbia University
CUNY
NASA
Princeton University
Rutgers University
SUNY
Stevens Institute of Technology
University of Pennsylvania
Wesleyan University
2009
2010
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
59. CONFIDENTIAL
…At the Administration’s request, the NPCC updated a groundbreaking 2009 analysis of
how climate change might impact New York for SIRR.
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
# of 90+ degree days
could double (or triple),
to current level of
Birmingham, AL
Sea levels likely to rise 1-
2 ft. and could rise by > 2
½ ft. (on top of 1 ft. since
1900)
60. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
Using the NPCC projections, the City, with the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities,
developed maps showing how floodplains will expand by the 2050s…
FEMA PWMs, with 2020s and 2050s Floodplain Growth
100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN*
2013
PWMs
2050s
Projected
Change
(%)
Residents 398,000 801,000 101%
Jobs 271,000 430,000 59%
Buildings 68,000 114,000 68%
Floor Area
(SF)
534M 855M 60%
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
61. CONFIDENTIAL
Areas Experiencing Regular Tidal Flooding by 2050s
…The City’s analysis also shows that much of New York’s coast will be subject to regular
tidal flooding by the 2050s, even without storms.
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
POTENTIAL SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS
Borough
Waterfront
(miles)
Risk of Tidal Flooding
(miles) (%)
Bronx 86.7 6.2 7%
Brooklyn 113.3 11.5 10%
Manhattan 44.8 1.3 3%
Queens 155.1 21.4 14%
Staten Island 120.1 2.6 2%
Total 520 43 8%
62. CONFIDENTIAL
Likelihood of Damage (%) (Return Period, 50 = 1/50 years)
Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s
Source: Swiss Re model
Working with Swiss Re, the City also was able to quantify how climate change might
change the monetary impacts and frequency of damaging storms
▪ Likelihood of a $19B
storm (like Sandy) will
grow 17% by the 2020s
and 40% by the 2050s
▪ Likely loss of 1/70-year
storm (like Sandy) will
grow to $35B by the
2020s and $90B by the
2050s (in current dollars)
1/60
~$90B
~$35B
~$19B
1/50
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
1/70
63. CONFIDENTIAL
In short, even if unlikely to recur in precisely the same way, the experience of Sandy
serves as a wake-up call to all New Yorkers.
Though New York has always been
vulnerable to coastal flooding…
…Sandy and FEMA’s PWM maps show this
vulnerability to be greater than previously
understood…
…The NPCC’s work shows that not only is this
vulnerability likely to grow with climate
change, but that it also will involve more
than just coastal storms…
…While the analysis by Swiss Re is likely to
show a real cost of inaction
Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
The City must start taking steps immediately to address its long-term challenges
64. CONFIDENTIAL
Be ambitious, but seek achievability
Can be significantly more resilient
Aim for the stars, but do not fail to launch
Create multiple defensive layers (reduce impacts, while allowing faster recovery)
First Layer: Coastal defenses (less flooding; less impact)
Second Layer: Buildings (less serious damage; faster rehabitation)
Third Layer: Infrastructure and critical systems (fewer outages; faster restoration)
3
Acknowledge resource limits, but seek to stretch resources
Maximize benefits per dollar (including non-monetary benefits, such as vulnerability of population)2
To address the risks of climate change, the Administration has developed a plan that
adheres to four core principles.
1
In impacted areas, do not abandon the waterfront (rebuild and, where possible, improve)
Fight for coastal neighborhoods4
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
65. CONFIDENTIAL
The Administration’s plan focuses on both citywide and neighborhood-specific challenges.
Citywide Systems and Infrastructure
Coastal Protection
Buildings
Insurance
Utilities
Liquid Fuels
Healthcare
Telecommunications
Transportation
Parks
Water and Wastewater
Food Supply
Solid Waste
Economic Recovery
Community Preparedness and Response
Environmental Protection and Remediation
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
Impacted Communities
Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront
East and South Shores of Staten Island
South Queens
Southern Brooklyn
Southern Manhattan
Report contains:
Nearly 450 pages
Over 250 initiatives
66. CONFIDENTIAL
Effectiveness confirmed via international and
US due diligence, consultations with
engineering firms, hydrodynamic modeling, etc.
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
The first layer of the Administration’s plan focuses on coastal defenses, especially those
that proved to be effective during Sandy or have been proven elsewhere.
Nourished beaches and dunes
Increased elevation and berms
Newer and elevated drainage systems
Wave attenuation systems
Tidal barriers along inland waterways
Select Defenses That Have Proved Effective
With Dune Protection – Beach 56th Street
Before Sandy
67. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
The first layer of the Administration’s plan focuses on coastal defenses, especially those
that proved to be effective during Sandy or have been proven elsewhere.
Nourished beaches and dunes
Increased elevation and berms
Newer and elevated drainage systems
Wave attenuation systems
Tidal barriers along inland waterways
Select Defenses That Have Proved Effective
With Dune Protection – Beach 56th Street
After Sandy
Effectiveness confirmed via international and
US due diligence, consultations with
engineering firms, hydrodynamic modeling, etc.
68. CONFIDENTIAL
Priority is areas with:
Highest storm surge probability
Most “floodable FAR”
Most critical infrastructure
Most vulnerable populations
Coastline Risk “Heat Map”
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
The Administration’s plan calls for a first phase of coastal protection projects that is
relatively affordable and focuses initially on those areas that are most vulnerable...
69. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…This first phase is projected to cost about $3.7 billion and will include a mix of
proven strategies, ranging from increasing coastal edge elevations…
70. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…The first phase will also work to minimize the impacts that waves have on vulnerable
neighborhoods…
71. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…Finally, the first phase will work to minimize the impacts of “stillwater” inundation on
vulnerable neighborhoods.
72. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
As resources are found, the Administration’s plan calls for completion of a full-build set of
coastal protections that expand on and complement its first phase strategies.
73. CONFIDENTIAL
Implementation and Funding
Implementation of the Administration’s plan will require interagency coordination,
overseen by a new Director of Resiliency.
Administration to seek
legislation to:
Enshrine structure
Have OLTPS update
plan every 4 yrs.
Have OLTPS include
resiliency indicators in
annual updates
Director of Resiliency will report to
Head of OLTPS and oversee agency
coordination
74. Implementation and Funding
The total cost of the Administration’s plan is nearly $20 billion, much – though not all – of
which will be covered by existing or likely new sources of funding…
Includes:
City capital (previously
allocated)
CDBG (first tranche)
Other Federal funds (e.g.,
USACE) Includes:
CDBG (future
tranches)
FEMA Hazard
Mitigation funds
Utility ratepayers
Options to Fill Gap:
New Federal sources
(e.g., new supplemental
appropriation as per
Katrina)
New City capital
(up to $1B)
Other potential sources
75. CONFIDENTIAL
Implementation & Funding
The Administration has identified nearly 60 concrete steps that it intends to take before
year-end 2013 to advance its plan.
Select 2013 Resiliency Milestones Identified in SIRR Report
76.
77. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
Lessons of Sandy
Structural damage
mainly in small, light
buildings built pre-
modern codes
Taller, newer and
heavier buildings
tended to have
systems/contents
damage
In studying how best to protect the city’s building stock, the Administration first examined
how different types of buildings fared during Sandy…
1 Floor 2 Floors 3 to 6 Floors 7 Floors or Higher
Year of
Construction
Combust.
Non-
Combust.
Combust.
Non-
Combust.
Combust.
Non-
Combust.
Combust.
Non-
Combust.
BuildingsinSandyInundationArea
Total
Pre-1961 18% 3% 37% 1% 11% 1% 0% 1%
Post-1961 2% 1% 16% 1% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Red/DestroyedTags
Pre-1961 73% 1% 16% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Post-1961 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Share of Total Buildings in the Sandy Inundation Area vs. Share of Building Damage
Source: DOB December Tags, DCP PLUTO
78. CONFIDENTIAL
Elevation may be practical for some city buildings;
But, city has 68K buildings in 100-yr. floodplain:
̶ For 39%, elevation is impractical or infeasible (e.g.,
narrow lots, attached, etc.); and
̶ For others, elevation is undesirable (would destroy
urban fabric)
̶ In all cases, elevation is extremely expensive
Elevation also only addresses surge, not other extreme
weather
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…Given the vulnerability of parts of New York’s building stock, the City first looked at the
traditional approach to mitigation – elevation…
Note: Elevation is one of few mitigation strategies for
which National Flood Insurance Program offers
premium discounts
79. CONFIDENTIAL
…Given the challenges of standard mitigation strategies, the Administration’s plan will
ensure greater resiliency in a way that is tailored to the city…
Strengthen existing building codes
Flood
Elevation: In 100-yr. floodplain, build to FEMA
flood elevation + freeboard (1-2 ft.)
̶ Post-2025, more freeboard, if sea levels rise
sufficiently
Critical Systems: Improve protections
Wind: Regulate ballast; explore other changes
Provide zoning relief: Allow elevation without “zoning
penalty” for additional height
Encourage retrofits for resiliency
Flood
$1.2B Incentive: For % of cost to protect key
systems and, for vulnerable stock, structures
̶ % based on financial capacity
̶ Reserve for small homes, industrial bldgs.,
affordable housing and each borough
Mandate: Require bldgs. > 7 stories/300KSF to
protect key systems by 2030
Wind Protection: Increase inspections
NYCHA: Create resiliency program for damaged and
undamaged buildings
Recommendations are consistent with those of Building Resiliency Task Force
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
New Buildings/Post-Sandy Rebuilds Existing Buildings
80. CONFIDENTIAL
…The Administration’s building resiliency plan also dovetails with its proposals to
address challenges associated with the National Flood Insurance Program.
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
NFIP Challenges
1. Affordability
Upcoming end to subsidies
New maps raising elevations and expanding
100-yr. floodplain
2. Low uptake
80% of residential buildings inundated by
Sandy did not have NFIP coverage
City Proposals
1. Premium credits for mitigation, other than
elevation
2. Federal low-income subsidies
3. Lower-cost, higher-deductible policies for those
not required to get NFIP coverage
81. CONFIDENTIAL
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
The Administration’s plan also addresses the vulnerability of a variety of additional critical
systems that serve the City.
Liquid Fuels
Telecommunications
Parks
Food Supply
Healthcare
Transportation
Solid Waste
Water and Wastewater
Economic Recovery
Environmental Protection and
Remediation
Community Preparedness and
Response
Utilities
82. CONFIDENTIAL
Sandy-Impacted Communities
Focus on areas where physical
damage has lingered
Incorporate Citywide resiliency
initiatives
̶ Rebuilding programs for homes
and businesses
Prioritize rebuilding, but seek to
address underlying challenges
Tailored to each area, including:
̶ Up to $20M “Neighborhood
Game Changer Competition”
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
While focusing on Citywide systems and infrastructure, the Administration also
developed plans to help Sandy-impacted areas to rebuild safer and stronger.
83. CONFIDENTIAL
Plan Highlights
Work with USACE to study and install local storm surge barrier at
Newtown Creek, and study and design barrier at Gowanus Canal
Install integrated flood protection system in Red Hook
Launch sales tax abatement for industrial resiliency investments
and upgrade City-owned industrial properties
Create and implement revitalization strategy for targeted retail
and community spaces in Red Hook Houses
16
9
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
The Administration’s plans focus on the Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront…
Conceptual rendering of Newtown Creek surge barrier
84. CONFIDENTIAL
Plan Highlights
Work with USACE to construct armored protection from Fort
Wadsworth to Great Kills
Launch Mid-Island Bluebelt
Install revetments and wetlands for wave attenuation on South
Shore
Develop comprehensive revitalization plan for Great Kills Harbor
Study zoning changes to promote resiliency in Midland Beach
Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such as
Midland, New Dorp and South Beaches
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…And on the East and South Shores of Staten Island…
Conceptual rendering of levee at South Beach
85. CONFIDENTIAL
Plan Highlights
Develop comprehensive revitalization plans for Boardwalk, B.
116th St., B. 108th St. and Mott Ave.
Work with USACE to install double dune system in Breezy Pt. and
to study system for rest of Rockaway Peninsula
Work with USACE to study and install wetland and wave
attenuation in Howard Beach
Develop a plan to address frequent tidal inundation in Broad
Channel and Hamilton Beach
Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such
as Broad Channel and Hamilton Beach
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…As well as South Queens…
Conceptual rendering of Beach 116th Street
86. CONFIDENTIAL
16
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…And Southern Brooklyn…
Plan Highlights
Develop designs for Coney Island Creek wetlands and tidal
barrier with opportunities for economic development
Support entertainment district expansion, including new roller
coaster and Aquarium improvements
Work with USACE on nourishment of Coney, Brighton and
Plumb Beaches
Replace destroyed Ida G. Israel hospital facility
Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such
as Gerritsen Beach
Conceptual rendering of Coney Island Creek wetlands and tidal barrier
87. CONFIDENTIAL
Highlights
Study multi-purpose levee to increase East Side resiliency and
create mixed-use development (“Seaport City”)
Install integrated flood protection system along Hospital Row, LES
and Chinatown and explore installation in LM
Design integrated flood protection system for remainder of
Southern Manhattan
Facilitate Water St. revitalization with plaza activation and
enhancement and streetscape improvements
Harden key utility, telecom and transit networks
2
Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
…Together with Southern Manhattan.
Conceptual rendering of Lower Manhattan multi-purpose levee
Even as the sky scrapers of lower manhattan grew and NYC became the global center for commerce, NYC retained its connection with the waterfront, as finger piers lined the shores of the East and Hudson Rivers.
By the late 1980s, much of our waterfront looked like this with shells of former industrial buildings and the shoreline literally crumbling into the river.
In 1992, DCP issued the first Comp Waterfront Plan. First time the city examined the entirety of the waterfront. Led to the establishment of waterfront zoning.
In the decades since, particularly within the past 10 years, we have made a remarkable transformation of the waterfront.
But we can’t rest on our laurels. Needed to examine the entirety of the waterfront once again, make certain we have a plan for the future. Take advantage of this remarkable opportunity.Our water is our identity, the connective tissue between our boroughs and is, in effect, our Sixth Borough.
The plan was built around significant public involvement. A full year of participatory planning.
Workshops in each of the five boroughs
Interagency working group- led by DCP.
Culminated in plan that is organized by eight goals.Starting with public access.
The WRP is a regulatory review tool that reviews discretionary projects within the Coastal Zone. It is not a plan, it is not a funding mechanism, but rather it is a set of policies that aim to reconcile competing interests on the waterfront by laying out policies that discretionary projects must be consistent with.
In its current form, the WRP covers 10 policy areas: Residential and Commercial Redevelopment, Maritime and Industrial Development, the Use of the Waterways,Ecological Resources, WaterQuality, Flooding and Erosion, Solid and Hazardous Waste, Public Access, Visual Quality, and Historic Resources
One major change in the WRP revisions is the introduction of climate change consideration. Based on projections of sea level rise determined by the NPCC, projects will be required to assess the risks of climate change and coastal flooding and storm surge on the planning and design of their projects. Applicants are encouraged to incorporate design strategies that minimize these risks. Additionally, a new policy is proposed that requires projects that store industrial or hazardous materials, such as open industrial piles, to examine the public health risks in the event of coastal flooding or storm surge.
This study is grounded in an understanding of the scale and diversity of New York City’s coastal zone. The coastal zone includes extensive wetlands of Jamaica Bay and Long Island Sound, urban centers and industrial areas, beachfront communities, and neighborhoods of all kinds.Because of this diversity of geography and uses, there is not a one-size fits all approach to climate resilience. Different areas face different kinds of risks and will require different strategies. As we saw with Sandy, different areas of the city experience even the same storm very differently due to their geography.
As we explained at the last meeting, we are focused on both the gradual impacts of sea level rise and the impact of sea level rise on sudden events.The lowest lying areas of the city will be vulnerable to regular inundation as sea level rise. And soft shorelines and weakened shoreline structures will be more vulnerable to erosion.In addition, sea level rise will result in higher storm surges and a larger flood zone. In some areas of the city coastal flooding is accompanied by strong weave forces which create additional damages.
*the threat is regular (daily and weekly) high tide flooding*flooding is more significant in certain places due to land use characteristics*amount of overtopping varies by location
At the scale of the reach, there are large infrastructural solutions such as surge barriers, which are used in combination with levees to protect large areas. We’re also looking at more innovative ideas of large-scale protection through landform creations, such as the Palisades Bay proposal from Guy Nordenson and ARO, and many of the rising Currents exhibits that followed.
We’ve laid out of process for identifying and evaluating potential adaptive strategies. The goal of this process is to identify what strategies to implement in which locations and at what point in time.This process is intended to be used by planners in a variety of contexts and is intended to be a part of a larger strategic planning process, such as a coastal adaptation plan for a specific community, or a regional study for increased flood protection.
Risk is composed of two distinct parts: Coastal Hazards and Vulnerabilities. Risk can change over time, as hazards and vulnerabilities change due to climate change and development/demographic changes.
We’ve laid out of process for identifying and evaluating potential adaptive strategies. The goal of this process is to identify what strategies to implement in which locations and at what point in time.This process is intended to be used by planners in a variety of contexts and is intended to be a part of a larger strategic planning process, such as a coastal adaptation plan for a specific community, or a regional study for increased flood protection.
The Mayor has tasked us with answering 3 important questions:What happened during and after Sandy?There has been a lot of work done here, but thus far no one has compiled it into one placeWhat could happen in the future?Looking out to two time horizons – 2020 and 2050Considering not just Sandy but extreme weather events like heat waves, snowstorms, torrential rains, etc.How do we rebuild post-Sandy and prepare for the future?These questions are to be answered Citywide for critical systems and infrastructure, and locally for community recovery and rebuilding.
*the threat is regular (daily and weekly) high tide flooding*flooding is more significant in certain places due to land use characteristics*amount of overtopping varies by location
Water flooded directly over the City’s coastal edgesThe peak of the storm surge coincided with high tide in the lower harbor, overtopping of beaches and shorelinesUpper harbor storm surge coincided with low tideWater found indirect routes over the City’s backbay coastal edgesWater finds its level and seeks equilibriumBeaches and shorelines were flanked by backbay inlets and creeks, allowing water to flood neighborhoods that lie lower than their direct ocean-facing and harbor-facing protectionsWater found indirect routes through the City’s drainage and outfall networkFailed and missing tide gates provided an early path for water into low-lying neighborhoods (eg Naughton Avenue)Breaking waves acted on structures, particularly in areas with no beach nourishment or dunes in placeMany coastal protections were nonexistent or insufficient to break waves and prevent inland wave action on buildingsWave action accounted for over 80% damaged buildingsNourished beaches and dunes protected some coastal communities by limiting wave actionDunes broke waves and absorbed energyBeach nourishment projects broke waves and absorbed energyLocal resiliency efforts and natural characteristics protected some waterfront communitiesNatural topography and elevation improvements raised certain development projects above the storm surge water levelsDrainage improvements, included elevated outfalls, continued to function during the storm, carrying storm surge waters away from homes and businessesWetlands with berms with an elevation greater than the storm surge water levels successfully resisted the water forces
Water flooded directly over the City’s coastal edgesThe peak of the storm surge coincided with high tide in the lower harbor, overtopping of beaches and shorelinesUpper harbor storm surge coincided with low tideWater found indirect routes over the City’s backbay coastal edgesWater finds its level and seeks equilibriumBeaches and shorelines were flanked by backbay inlets and creeks, allowing water to flood neighborhoods that lie lower than their direct ocean-facing and harbor-facing protectionsWater found indirect routes through the City’s drainage and outfall networkFailed and missing tide gates provided an early path for water into low-lying neighborhoods (eg Naughton Avenue)Breaking waves acted on structures, particularly in areas with no beach nourishment or dunes in placeMany coastal protections were nonexistent or insufficient to break waves and prevent inland wave action on buildingsWave action accounted for over 80% damaged buildingsNourished beaches and dunes protected some coastal communities by limiting wave actionDunes broke waves and absorbed energyBeach nourishment projects broke waves and absorbed energyLocal resiliency efforts and natural characteristics protected some waterfront communitiesNatural topography and elevation improvements raised certain development projects above the storm surge water levelsDrainage improvements, included elevated outfalls, continued to function during the storm, carrying storm surge waters away from homes and businessesWetlands with berms with an elevation greater than the storm surge water levels successfully resisted the water forces
*given that plan A (barriers) never get built or takes many years before protection is in place, we need interim steps and plan B permanent steps*how do we evaluate these interim and plan B steps? Risk map highlights areas of greatest financial and human danger*flooding risk is identified by a combination of existing geomorphology and land use*also needs to account for critical infrastructure locations and expanded wave zones
The Mayor has tasked us with answering 3 important questions:What happened during and after Sandy?There has been a lot of work done here, but thus far no one has compiled it into one placeWhat could happen in the future?Looking out to two time horizons – 2020 and 2050Considering not just Sandy but extreme weather events like heat waves, snowstorms, torrential rains, etc.How do we rebuild post-Sandy and prepare for the future?These questions are to be answered Citywide for critical systems and infrastructure, and locally for community recovery and rebuilding.
We’re studying the urban design and zoning implications of designing buildings to higher flood elevations, or “freeboard.” Much of New York’s building stock, even within the flood zones, are multistory with active ground uses. If buildings were designed with raised first floors, this could have very negative impacts on the public realm and streetscape of our downtown areas and neighborhoods. We’re analyzing our current zoning for how to allow for and encourage design practices that allow for high flood protection while maintaining the high quality of the city’s urban design.