Jiahua Business Club Jul 4th, 2012

2. Part One:
Risk

3. Business Club
Define: Adventure

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In order to define an activity as an adventure,
there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.

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What would you
be willing to risk?

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7. Business Club
Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix
E – Extreme Risk H – High Risk M – Moderate Risk L – Low Risk

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How to Place Risks in the Matrix
In a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on the
matrix based on two criteria:
Likelihood: the probability of a risk
Consequences: the severity of the impact or the
extent of damage caused by the risk.

9. Business Club
Likelihood of Occurrence
Based on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under one of the
five categories:
Definite: A risk that is almost certain to show-up during project execution. If
you’re looking at percentages a risk that is more than 80% likely to cause
problems will fall under this category.
Likely: Risks that have 60-80% chances of occurrence can be grouped as likely.
Occasional: Risks which have a near 50/50 probability of occurrence.
Seldom: Risks that have a low probability of occurrence but still can not be
ruled out completely.
Unlikely: Rare and exceptional risks which have a less than 10% chance of
occurrence.

10. Business Club
The consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the five
categories, based on how severe the damage can be.
Insignificant: Risks that will cause a near negligible amount of damage to the overall
progress of the project.
Marginal: If a risk will result in some damage, but the extent of damage is not too
significant and is not likely to make much of a difference to the overall progress of the
project.
Moderate: Risks which do not impose a great threat, but yet a sizable damage can be
classified as moderate.
Critical: Risks with significantly large consequences which can lead to a great amount
of loss are classified as critical.
Catastrophic: These are the risks which can make the project completely unproductive
and unfruitful, and must be a top priority during risk management.

11. Business Club
Hi there handsome,
Wanna play some poker?

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With you,
Sure thing!

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How about
$1000 a hand?

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Yeah I can do that!

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Are you sure you
Can win?

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You against me?
No problem!

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What makes you
so sure?

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I play all the time.
I got a mean ass
Poker face.

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A poker face isn’t
going to help you in
this game.
You need to know
the odds of what
you are getting into.

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I do; I’m smart.

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Ok Smarty-pants, do
you understand what
you need to beat me if
I have a Flush?

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Yeah, a full house
Is all.

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Ok and how will you
get that?

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Two cards of one
number, three of
another.

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And what are your odds
Of getting that?

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Pretty good.

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Pretty good?

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That’s what I said
isn’t it?

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Define “pretty good.”

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Pretty good is
Pretty good. Better
than normal good.

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Your definition seems
to be lacking the due
diligence and
comprehensive analysis
required to properly
answer the question.

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What now?

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First of all, the odds of
me getting a flush is
less than 1%. Now your
odds of getting a full
house….

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A full house consists of a 3 of
a kind (triple) and a pair.
There are 4 suits and 13 ranks.
Each triple has 3 different
suits. The number of all
triples of each rank is -
comb (4;3) = 4. The number
of all triples = 4*13 = 52.

35. Business Club
The number of all pairs of
each rank is comb(4;2) = 6.
The number of all pairs =
6*12 = 72 (12 = the number
all ranks without the rank of
the current triple). In the end
we get the probability of full
house as 52*72 / 2,598,960 =
3,744/2,598,960

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Yeah you just too
cute for all that
number talk…

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Go do your homework.
I don’t play with chumps.

38. Part Two:
Persuasion

39. Business Club
The saying "No man is an island" is an undeniable
truth.
We need the support and
cooperation of other people to
help us in reaching our goals.
Successful people know that one
of the most important abilities to
possess is the ability to persuade
and influence others.
Here are some hot tips to do this
effectively.

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Persuasion tips:
1.Enter Their world
2.Mirror their body language
3.Be Cheerful and nice
4.Be sincere and trustworthy
5.Provide them with compelling evidence
6.Show them what is in it for them
7.Appeal to wants not needs

41. Business Club
Discussion period:
1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they
both important?
2. What was the biggest risk you ever took? What persuaded you to take it?
3. What was one time you failed to assess the amount of risk of something you
got yourself into?
4. When has someone persuaded you to do something that you normally would
not have done? Would you do that again today?
5. When have you persuaded someone else?
6. How do you calculate risk when making big decisions that effect your business
or career?
7. Have you properly used the art of persuasion when negotiating from a point of
weakness? When and how?
8. What time of persuasion works better on men than women? Vise versa?