A presentation on the crops and climate in Malawi.

1. CROPS AND CLIMATE IN MALAWI
JULIUS MANGISONI
BUNDA COLLEGE
MALAWI

2. Outline of Presentation
• The Agricultural Sector in Malawi
• Historical Background
• Malawian Agriculture in the Context of Climate
Change
• Climate Change Impacts
• Farmer Perceptions of Changes in Rainfall
• Farmers Response to Climate Change Impacts
• Proposed Adaptation Strategies
• Government Response

3. The Agricultural Sector in Malawi
• Mainstay of the Malawi economy
– Accounting for between 36 and 39 percent of GDP
– Employs about 80 percent of the country’s labour f force
– Accounts for over 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings
– Contributes to national and household food security
• Bimodal production
– Estate or commercial subsector
• Land under leasehold or freehold
• Grows mostly export crops e.g. tobacco, tea, coffee

4. Agricultural Sector
– Smallholder subsector
• Comprises the majority of the rural population working on fragmented
smallholding under customary land tenure system
• Obtains lower yields than the estate subsector
• Female-headed households cultivate even smaller land holdings than
their male-counterparts
• Maize, cassava, sweet potatoes and pulses are grown for food
• Cash crops: tobacco, soybeans, groundnuts, beans and vegetables
• Total area under cultivation is between 2.2 and 2.5 million ha, of which
more than 90 percent comprises small farms

5. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
• 81% of the population aged over 15 years depends on subsistence
agricultural activities
• Almost all households (97%) engaging in farming activities grow maize
• As result, food security in Malawi is associated with maize production
• Maize is grown on over 50% (almost 1.5 million hectares) of the available
arable land
• The per capita consumption of maize is approximately 130 kg
• Maize is responsible for 60% of the total calorie consumption

6. Historical Background
• Millet and sorghum were the key staple crops in Malawi
until the turn of the 20th century
• These were replaced by maize to the extent that by the end
of the 20th century, per capita consumption of maize in
Malawi was the highest in the world.
• Maize ha has risen since 2006/07 due to introduction of
FISP
• FISP is responsible for yield response of 15.5kg grain per kg
of N for maize
• FISP is also credited for the increased adoption of improved
varieties of both maize and legumes
• The dominance of maize has had tremendous influence on
breeding programs and the seed industry in Malawi

7. 0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Area(HA)
Production Area (HA)
MAIZE(HA))
GROUNDNUTS (HA)
Pegeon peas (HA)
soya beans (HA)

8. Malawian Agriculture in the Context of
Climate
• More than 95% of Malawian agriculture is
rainfed
• Nearly all smallholders rely on rain-fed
agriculture
• As such anything that affects agriculture has
far reaching effects on smallholder farmers
and the economy at large.

9. Interaction of Climate Change and
other Variables in Malawi
• Malawi’s population of about 15 million is projected to
reach 26million in 2030
• Given Malawi’s dependence on natural resources, the
high rates of population growth combined with
HIV/AIDS, climate change and competition for water
between agriculture and other uses have far reaching
implications on the country’s sustainable development
• Malawian agriculture is heavily reliant on smallholder
farming, which is highly vulnerable to climate changes.
• Thus, both farmers and the national economy are
victims of adverse weather conditions

10. Climate Change
• One of the biggest global challenges of the 21st
• Reality of climate change and its effects is more apparent in Malawi as
evidenced by:
 Increased frequency of droughts and floods
 More droughts and floods have occurred in the last decade (2000- 2010) than in the past
three decades (1970 – 2000)
 Poor onset of rainy season e.g. In 2011/12 season- there was poor rainfall in all districts
of the country for about 20 days in the month of December 2011 (Met Dept 2011
reports) resulting in wilting of crops
 Erratic rainfall
 Prolonged dry spells
 Floods affected Nsanje, Chikwawa, Phalombe and Mulanje districts of the Southern
Region
 Increased incidences of diseases and parasites
 Mosquitoes and malaria occurrences have increased due to rising temperatures
 In some districts in 2011 there was an outbreak of army worm which affected a second
crop

11. Climate Change
• Average annual disaster distribution in Malawi is
floods (54%), droughts (15%), storms (2%),
earthquakes (2%) and epidemics (27%).
• Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.9
degrees Celcius between 1960 and 2006, an
average rate of 0.21 degrees Celcius per decade.
• The increase in temperature has been most rapid
in the rainy summer (December-February) and
lowest in the hottest season (September-
November).

12. Climate Change Impact
• Food security assessment done by the Malawi Vulnerability
Assessment Committee (MVAC forecast April 2012 to March 2013)
showed that an estimated total population of 1,630,007 were
rendered food insecure
• Nearly all the districts of the Southern Region were affected with
food shortage in the 2012/13 consumption season
• Prices of maize and other crops rose due to low yields thereby
making it difficult for the poor to purchase food.
 For instance maize prices rose from MK3000 to MK10,000-
MK15,000/50kg bag
• Floods cause annual losses of about 12 percent of maize production
in the south, where about one-third of Malawi’s maize is grown.

13. Climate Change Impact
• Thus the combined forces of population
growth and climate change:
Diminish the quality and amount of viable agricultural land
available to each family and for commercial farming
Reduce agricultural production and aggravate food
insecurity
Accelerate depletion of the environment and natural
resources such as forests and water
Undermine efforts to enhance wealth creation and poverty
reduction in the country
Induced severe disasters leading to loss of life

14. Farmer’s Perceptions of Changes in
Rainfall (Simelton et al. (2013)
• Climate change is making livelihoods more
difficult and vulnerable
• People report that rainy season is becoming
ever more unpredictable
Temperatures are hotter and the rains are arriving
later and becoming more intense and
concentrated which reduces the length of the
growing season and triggers more droughts and
floods (Table)

15. Amount Frequency Intensity Inter-annual variability
Erratic rainfall Rains come on one side of the farm and not the other
The pattern is very different from the past-very unreliable
Onset Onset is much later- it
used to rain in
September, now it comes
in December, January or
not at all
Onsets are more
unpredictable with dry
spells after planting
It used to rain for three
days, then dry for a
couple of days, then rain
3 days.
Rains are also heavier or
little, light and random
and not reliable
In the past I knew when
the rains were going to
start
Duration Insufficient rainfall is the
biggest challenge
There are fewer rainy
days now
Much more concentrated
in heavy down pours.
Floods and droughts start
at same time
We used to have
abundant rains in the
1970s/80s and early
1990s. Changes started
from the 2000
Cessation The rainy season finishes
1-2 months earlier now
Erratic rains they stop
earlier
In the past we used to
have June and July rains
now it never rains in
those months
Confounded perceptions My parents used to
harvest more than we do
now
People cutting trees
cause the problems of
erosion and flooding
People started growing
hybrids due to the
unpredictable rains
1966-1994 rains fell from
October to May. Later
things changed

16. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
and the Economy
• Models estimate that floods may cause an average GDP
loss of almost 1 percent every year but during drought
periods, economic losses are much higher.
• Together, droughts and floods constitute a major
obstacle to agriculture and food security in the country.
• Droughts increase poverty by 1.3 percentage points
(roughly equal to an additional 2.1 million people
falling below the poverty line).
• Drought destroys on average 4.6 percent of maize
production each year in Malawi based on today’s
adoption of different varieties.

17. Farmers Response to Climate Change
Impacts
• Changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures are forcing
farmers to:
 Shorten the growing season
 Switch to more expensive hybrids or OPVs such as ZM 309
(early maturing) ZM 523
 Adopt climate smart agricultural technologies such as
Conservation Agriculture
 Intensify winter cropping and small scale irrigation
 Intensify production of drought tolerant crops such as cassava
 Engage is rain water harvesting technologies
 Embark on livelihood diversification

18. Proposed Adaptation
Strategies
• Provision of short-term weather forecast data to
farmers e.g. 10 day forecast
• Use of minimum and reduced tillage technologies
in combination with planting of cover crops
• Small scale irrigation systems using treadle
pumps for winter cropping
• Development of catchment management plans
for rivers for improved water supply for irrigation
• Establishment of tree nurseries for fruit trees and
other species

19. Government Response
• The Government of Malawi has committed to address the
dual challenges of climate change and rapid population
growth
• The MGDS II puts management of climate change, natural
resources and the environment as one of the nine
development priority areas
• The Government has created the Ministry of Environment and
Climate Change- has developed a national climate change
policy

20. Government Response
• The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security
has embarked on promotion of:
Small scale irrigation programs
Greenbelt Initiative
Information production and dissemination
Climate smart agriculture practices:
Rotations and crop associations
Diversified and integrated food-energy systems
Conservation Agriculture
Rainwater harvesting

21. References
• Actalliance (2012) . Looming food crisis in Malawi. Act Alert Reference Nr.:
25/2012.
• Hachileka, E. And Vaatainen, S. (2011). Climate change coping and adaptation
strategies: Case of Chiawa Community in Lower Zambezi, Zambia. Windhoek:
RAEIN Africa Secretariat.
• Simelton, E. et al. (2013) Is rainfall really changing? Farmer’s
perceptions, meteorological data, and policy implications. Climate and
Development, 2013.
• Stringer, L. et al. (2010) Adaptation to climate change and desertification:
Perspectives from national policy and autonomous practice in Malawi. Climate and
Change 2: 145-160.
• Yates, L. (2009). New climate-ready maize varieties released in Malawi. DTMA
Malawi OPV Variety Release.
• Zulu, E., Ciera, J. Mutunga, C., and De Souza, R. (2012). Population
dynamics, climate change and sustainable development in Malawi. Nairobi &
Washington, DC.: African Institute for Development Policy.