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Balance between Regulation and Growth
- Implementation of Basel III in Asia



Andrew Sheng
President, Fung Global Institute
Advanced Programme for Central Bankers and Regulators on Basel III
17-19, January 2013
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Institute of Global Economics and Finance

© Fung Global Institute
1




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2
     Financial Reform Landscape remains Complex




                                                                                                    2
Source: E&Y. Financial Regulatory Reform - What it means for bank business models, November 2012.
3
     Financial Regulatory Reform

     • Ensure that tighter standards, such as higher capital and
       liquidity requirements, do not choke off the global recovery.
     • Support the development of a global mechanism for managing
       volatile short-term capital flows, and development of
       macroprudential surveillance and regulation at the national and
       regional levels.
     • Establish an effective regulatory framework for
       macroprudential supervision and regulation at the national and
       regional levels.



Source: Asian Development Bank Institute, Policy Recommendations to Secure Balanced and Sustainable   3
Growth in Asia, October 2010.
4
     Asian Voice and Interests
    • There needs to be an Asian voice on financial reform and regulation
      rather than allowing the debate on issues to be dominated by a
      perceived choice between American and European approaches.
    • A “one-size-fits-all” approach is inappropriate due to differences in
      financial systems, stages of development and banking industry
      practices, and may lead to excessive burdens in areas such as
      capital and liquidity adequacy requirements and leverage ratios.
    • In addition, there is a risk of spillover effects from developed country
      regulatory changes and low-interest-rate policies that lead to
      migration of risky financial activities to Asia that could affect regional
      financial stability.
    • Asian leaders should consider sponsoring their own research on the
      impacts of the new regulations on Asian financial institutions and
      markets.
Source: Asian Development Bank Institute, Policy Recommendations to Secure Balanced and Sustainable   4
Growth in Asia, October 2010.
5
Key Points

• We need to put the Implementation of Basel III in Asia within the proper context.
• Post-2007 Global Financial Crisis, Basel III is an important standardization of
  minimum capital and liquidity standards for global banking.
• This is a NECESSARY, but NOT SUFFICIENT CONDITION for global financial
  stability, because Financial Stability Board and national regulators have only just
  begun to address SHADOW BANKING, or non-bank financial intermediaries, risk
  issues. Although important, banks account for 43.1 percent of global financial
  assets as at the end of 2011, whereas stock market capitalization and bond markets
  (excluding derivative financial assets) account for more than half of financial sector
  risks.
• Hence, to obtain overall financial system stability, we need to look also at real sector
  imbalances, monetary and fiscal policies, and interconnectivity and feedback
  mechanisms between financial sectors (banks and shadow banks) as a systemic
  whole.
• We must never forget that Finance must serve the Real Sector, not the other way
  around.

                                                                                         5
6
Key Questions

• What are Basel III’s main impact on (1) banking system and (2)
  growth and overall credit?
• While Basel III are Minimum conditions for capital and liquidity,
  do the complex calculations on risk weights impair or
  disadvantage EME banks?
• Which parts of Basel III should be priority for implementation?
  Should we move out of standard risk-based model towards
  Internal Risk-Based (IRB) models?
• What areas of structure (shadow banking), financial
  infrastructure and other issues should we consider ( Basel III
  included as part of package) for financial system stability?
                                                                    6
7
Contents

• Introduction

• What are the key issues and concerns?

• Role of Asia finance in rebalancing Asia’s Growth
  Model

• Conclusion


Appendix: Amendments to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
and the new BCBS Charter; and CRR4
                                                             7
8




8
9




Section 1 Introduction
10
Asia finance must be there to serve the real
sector




                                               10
11
Asian banks are the primary providers of
funding for private sector growth
   Asia’s shift towards a domestic and regionally-driven engine of
   growth would require continuous funding from Asia’s bank-
   dominated financial system



   However, Asia faces funding issue under Basel III rules that would
   reduce the incentive for banks to lend to trade finance and SMEs,
   and discourage long-term lending for infrastructure at a time when
   this is critical for Asia’s sustained growth


   While Basel III requirements on higher capital adequacy, enhanced
   liquidity and an overall leverage cap are commendable, the detailed
   rules on liquidity and risk-weighting may restrain the funding
   capacity of Asian banks


                                                                         11
12
     Banking sector has to adjust to unprecedented
     regulatory change




                                                             12
Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
13
     Global capital markets business also has to
     adjust to regulation




                                                             13
Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
14
     Need for adaptive business models to seize
     new growth trends




                                                  14
Source: McKinsey, BCG.
15
     Going to where the new trade corridors are




                                                                15
Source: BCG. The Transaction Banking Advantage, October 2012.
16
     Revamping payments value chain




                                                                16
Source: BCG. The Transaction Banking Advantage, October 2012.
17
     Need true banking transformation to improve
     financial metrics




                                                             17
Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
18
     Need to reverse declining ROE due to lack of
     performance improvement and rising capital ratios




                                                             18
Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
19
     Business model transformation – the basis for
     future growth
     • Capital markets business is most challenging due to regulatory
       pressure, high funding costs, and shrinking revenues.




                                                                    19
Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
20
The need for a balanced view, with appropriate
“fit” for EMEs
1. Basel III was designed to address the causes of the 2007-2009
   Financial Crisis in the advanced markets, aimed to resolve the
   issue of under-capitalisation and over-leverage in the advanced
   wholesale banking model.
2. Current Basel III on risk-taking governance requirements represent
   substantial improvement in quality, quantity and comparability of
   banks’ risk/reward profile. Asia needs that and supports Basel III.
3. However, there is substantial variation in quality of banks,
   supervisors and regulators between more retail-based systems
   (e.g., China, Canada, India, Australia) and wholesale systems (US,
   UK and some EU countries).
4. Need for clarity on WHAT is National discretion? WHAT fits local
   conditions and what is necessary to supplement Basel III
   implementation to ensure overall systemic stability.
                                                                     20
21
Agree that under-capitalisation and illiquidity of
internationally-active banks need to be solved
     Figure 1. Ratio of Debt to GDP Among Selected Advanced Economics
                      (In percent, GDP-weighted, 1987=100)




                                                                        21
22
Do Basel III rules address the priority policy and
real sector needs in Asia?

• While Asian banks can meet the current Basel III capital
  requirements, it is not clear as Asia grows faster with higher
  credit needs, whether there will capital constraints going
  forward.
• Asian banks are at different stages of development and Asian
  countries have different national imperatives.
• Capacity of Asian banks to implement Basel II/III vary hugely
  between banks, especially the smaller and non-internationally
  active banks.
• Europe is expected to have the largest shortfall of over €272
  billion in meeting Basel III capital requirements, and the US
  may have a shortfall of $60 billion.
                                                                   22
23
    Tighter financial conditions resulting in capital
    shortfalls, in turn worsening the real economy




Source: IIF. “The Cumulative Impact on the Global Economy of Changes in the Financial   23
Regulatory Framework”. September 2011.
24
Basel 2.5/III uses Risk Weighting and Models to
assess Risks
• Advanced country banks have high sovereign ratings and have
  experience in Internal Risk Based (IRB) Models which assign
  lower risks, if banks can prove with data.
• Asian banks are less sophisticated and rely on standard
  model, and because sovereign credit ratings are lower, and
  Asian banks do not have good risk data, they automatically
  have higher capital costs relative to European banks (see next
  Slide).
• Example:
     For top ASEAN banks        For top European banks       For top American banks
   • Basel III’s CET1 =         • Basel II’s CT1 average =   • Basel III’s Tier 1 Common
     average of 10.7%             10.2% (one bank has an       Ratio average = 8.4%
   • Basel II’s CT1 = average     average of below 7%)
     of 11.5%
                                                                                           24
25
Asian banks disadvantaged with the use of
sovereign credit rating
• Much more capital needed to support the same amount of
  loans or bonds (based on S&P risk weights, ASEAN+3 banks
  will need 300% more capital).




                                                             25
26
Asian banks have high RWA relative to total
assets




                                              26
27
    Top banks in Asia
                                       Total ROA CAR         CAR Cost to Income LTD Ratio
    Country        Largest Bank       Assets  % (Tier 1 %) (Total %)    %          %
    Germany        Deutsche Bank       2805.29 0.20      12.90   14.50     82.83    68.55
    France         BNP Paribas         2547.68 0.31      11.60   14.00       NA    121.88
    US             J.P. Morgan         2265.79 0.84      12.30   15.40     64.70    64.17
    US             Citibank            1873.88 0.59      13.60   16.99     65.00    71.25
    Japan          Mitsubishi UFJ      2603.95 0.19      12.31   14.91       NA       NA
    China          ICBC                2476.30 1.35      10.07   13.17     29.91    63.50
    Hong Kong      HSBC                1333.03 0.28       9.10   14.40     66.20    83.20
    Singapore      DBS                  279.49 0.89      12.90   15.80     43.30    86.40
    South Korea Kookmin Bank            238.62 0.80      10.14   13.09       NA    105.00
    Malaysia       Maybank              135.96 1.08      11.84   15.36     49.60    90.10
    Taiwan         Bank of Taiwan       135.74 0.09      10.50   11.38       NA     67.61
    India          ICICI Bank             94.73 1.61     12.70   18.50     42.91    76.10
    Thailand       Bangkok Bank           68.69 1.30     12.21   15.35       NA     92.60
    Indonesia      Bank Mandiri           56.66 2.23     14.90   17.20     41.60    74.10
    Philippines    Banco de Oro           26.84 0.95     10.00   15.80     67.90    66.73
                                                                                       27
Source: The Asset, Volume 14 Number 11, December 2012.
28
Whither Basel III for Asia?

• The US has postponed implementation of capital rules for the year 2013
  and delayed implementation of liquidity rules. Pressure to delay the start
  date was due to concerns over the complexity of the rules and the cost to
  banks at a time of weak global economic growth.
• Europe is also re-considering and the Bank of England has expressed
  concerns on the complexity of the rules, especially since bank supervision
  is returning to the Bank of England.
  “Rather than pushing through a flawed Basel III, we need to take the time to
  do it right so we do not have to do it over. … Basel III’s implementation has
  been postponed, and that offers a real chance to get it right. If we do, we
  won’t need Basel IV” – Thomas M. Hoenig, 2012*
As a result, Basel Committee announced agreement on Liquidity Rules with
a delayed phase in period.
* Get Basel III right and avoid Basel IV. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/99ece1b0-3fa0-11e2-b2ce-
  00144feabdc0.html#axzz2HRMF1qU1
                                                                                                    28
29




Section 2 What are the key issues and
          concerns?
30
Emerging Market banks find it currently easier
to meet Basel III requirements
    Figure 2. International Comparison of the Financial Liabilities/Assets Ratio




                                                                                   30
31
Asia has its own national banking development
agenda and time frame
• The extensiveness of the rules will have tremendous
  implications on re-shaping and micro-managing the business
  models of banks locally, regionally and worldwide.
• This raises the question of whether national regulators should
  be given more discretion to adjust their regulatory and
  supervisory guidelines in line with the Basel principles in a
  manner that suit their national banking development agenda
  and time frame.
• BCBS has now created a small team to look at “simplifying
  Basel III”. This is the time to engage BCBS through Asian
  regulators which can influence the final outcome, especially
  those which are represented either at G20 or FSB/BCBS
  levels.
                                                                   31
32
Implementation of Basel III will have costs on all
banks, global or local


      Constrained credit
    provision by Emerging
        Market banks
                                Risk of synchronised
                                slowdown globally if
                                 Asian growth also
                                constrained by limits
                                      on credit
      Retrenchment and
    deleveraging by global
            banks



                                                        32
33
Issue 1: Potential trap of synchronized
recession
• If the unintended consequences of implementing Basel III are
  to slow Asian growth because of the limited capacity of the
  banking system to support the growth of the real economy,
  especially for SMEs, trade and infrastructure finance, then the
  whole world may be trapped in a policy-induced unintended
  synchronized recession.
• Solution: Each Asian country should study what are the credit
  needs projected to 2020 and see if addition capital would be
  required to meet the new credit needs.




                                                                    33
34
Issue 2: Risk-weightings biased against Asian
banks
• Basel capital rules favour banks that have developed
  “advanced risk models” for determining risk-weighted assets
  (RWA). Asian banks are some 10 years behind in this respect.
  Hence, they will not be able to use efficient conversion factors
  even if they are given a transition period up to 2019.
• Solution: Each Asian country will have to develop better data-
  bases on credit history in order to re-calculate the risk weights;
  this will enable the larger banks to move toward Internal Risk-
  Based models with their own risk weights.




                                                                   34
35
Issue 3: Credit ratings biased against Asian
banks
• The Basel III risk-weightings are based on current sovereign
  credit ratings.
• Asian economies (and by definition, Asian banks) have lower
  credit ratings, even though their sovereign debt has high
  foreign exchange backing (up to 50%) and Asian economies
  have higher savings and lower fiscal debt.
• Many Asian banks are state-owned, thus the urgency to raise
  large capital cushions is not as imperative as the European
  case.
• Solution: Asia should consider creating Mutual (owned by
  users and industry) not-for-profit Credit Rating Agencies that
  can give ratings that are more objectively based. This will
  provide competition to current top 3 that have become TBTF.
                                                                   35
36
Issue 4: Liquidity risk framework not directly
relevant to Asian banks
• The Basel liquidity risk framework aims to restrain the balance
  sheets of banks which: (1) are highly leveraged; (2) have
  significant maturity mismatches; and (3) are funded mainly by
  the wholesale markets.
• However, Asian banks generally do not fall within any of these
  three categories because they have large deposit bases, the
  population has high savings rate, and the fiscal and balance of
  payments positions at the national level are much more robust.
Solution: Asian banks should work with central banks to
examine how domestic liquidity can be provided in manner
which would not create a ‘rush for funding’.

                                                                36
37
Basel liquidity rules vs. Asian situation


                                                  • Flexible
                                                    exchange
                                                    rates
• High loan-to-
  deposit ratios                                  • Substantial
                                                    liquid assets
• High leverage
                                                  • Low nominal
                                                    leverage


                        With low fiscal debt and high foreign
                        exchange, limits on loan-to-deposit
                        ratio, Central Banks can easily
                        provide liquidity to domestic banks.

                                                                37
38
Issue 5: Asia has huge need for infrastructure
funding
• The detailed rules on liquidity, risk-weightings and leverage
  may constrain the capacity of Asian banks to fund
  infrastructure since there is growing maturity mismatch risk.
• Furthermore, Basel III rules also make asset securitization
  more expensive.
• The ADB estimates that US$8 trillion will be required to finance
  infrastructure, creating massive potential for the development
  of Asian municipal and infrastructure bond markets.
• Solution: Develop Asia’s fixed income markets through asset
  securitization. This would help to lessen the maturity mismatch
  in bank balance sheets [e.g., Cagamas and HKMC].
                                                                  38
39
Large interest in infrastructure financing
• Asia is at the early stages of securitized debt markets.
• China also needs mortgage securitization to reduce maturity
  mismatch, particularly through bond market.




                                                                39
40
Issue 6: Trade finance is Asia’s lifeblood

• Trade finance business is forecast to grow at 9% annually to 60% of
  all global trade by 2020, with one leg in Asia.

                                              Trade finance underpins
                                              30–40% of the lending
                                              SMEs received. It forms
                                              the most relevant part of
                                              working capital financing




• Solution: Central banks should incentivise banks to promote trade
  finance and consider establishing a “Trade window” for real market
  transactions.
                                                                          40
41
How to ringfence trade finance in times of crisis

• Central bank could offer low-cost liquidity to commercial banks,
  against “ringfenced” portfolios of trade assets.
• Public entity could purchase trade and hold trade assets
  directly.
• Public entity could “guarantee” specific trade obligations, to
  support a liquid market in trade assets.




                                                                   41
42
    Basel III’s impact on trade



                BAFT-IFSA: Basel III                               Demand for trade
               may raise trade finance                           finance rising rapidly
                 costs by 18-40%




                                                                                          42
* BAFT-IFSA, Basel III-Impact on Trade, Tod Burwell, November 2011, Washington, D.C.
43
Issue 7: Asia’s SME development drive and job
creation
• Asia is at the cusp of an SME development drive to promote job
  creation, innovation and market competition. SMEs rely heavily on
  trade finance and short-term bank credit, they account for 80-90% of
  job creation to address employment and equity challenges.
• Both European Commission and UK recognize that lending to
  SMEs, though carrying higher credit risks, have large social benefits
  in terms of growth and employment generation.
• The net effect of higher risk-weights on SMEs and higher costs and
  lesser credit to SMEs may generate exactly the economic slowdown
  that creates higher risk for the banking system.
• Hence, policymakers have to weigh the positive spillover effects of
  SME health vs protecting banks against credit risk.
• Solution: Policy-makers should work alongside private sources of
  equity to meet SME financing needs.
                                                                      43
44
Lending to small enterprises still lower than
medium and large enterprises
 Figure 3. Growth Rate of Outstanding Loans Extended to Large Enterprises, Medium
                          Enterprises, and Small Enterprises




                                                                                    44
45
Access to finance is a major problem for SMEs

• A ECB survey shows that access to finance is perceived as the
  second most pressing problem for SMEs, after their order
  book.*
• Accordingly, the European Banking Authority (EBA) is
  examining a proposal by the European Parliament to adjust the
  risk-weights for lending to SMEs, and an increase in the
  threshold of EUR2 million for the Standardised Approach and
  EUR5 million for the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) Approach.
* European Central Bank, Survey on the Access to Finance of SMEs in Euro Area, April 2012.




                                                                                             45
46
We are in a self-fulfilling vicious cycle
                              Risk-
                                                      SME
                            weighting
                                                    have high
                            increases
                                                      risks
                               risk




                     Economy                                We do
                     will slow                             not lend
                      down                                 to SMEs

                                        SMEs will
                                         not be
                                         able to
                                          grow
We have to distinguish the positive externalities of SMEs, trade finance,
infrastructure, which creates jobs and future growth, from the negative externalities
of fast trading, high leverage, things that will destroy the economy systemically
                                                                                        46
47
Issue 8: Implementation cost on banking
operations
• Lastly, the implementation of complex Basel III rules will result in
  Asian banks incurring disproportionately large costs.
• Asian banks are still in the process of implementing Basel I and II
  (and 2.5); and yet they are now burdened by Basel III.
• Asian banks’ expertise and experience are scarce.
  –Whether scarcity management and regulatory resources should be
   focused on developing a banking system that supports and fits
   Asian realities, rather than “one-size-fits-all” rules designed for
   implementation by advanced countries.
• Global banks have the capacity to absorb these costs but not the
  smaller national banks in Asia, which are at different stages of
  development.
• Solution: Asian banks should review their business models that can
  help generate new revenues to help fund these costs.
                                                                     47
48
Non-Bank Assets (NBFI or shadow banking) more
than Bank Assets
• Regulatory arbitrage from banks to shadow banks more than bank
  assets.
• Contagion can occur between banks and shadow banking. Risk are
  not just in banks.




                                                                   48
49
    Basel Rules are not law and do not have legal
    force
    • Whilst national regulators need to use Basel III as standards,
      the total national requirements and law are still paramount.


          “3. Legal Status. The BCBS does not possess any formal
          supranational authority. Its decisions do not have legal
          force. Rather, the BCBS relies on its members'
          commitments, as described in Section 5, to achieve its
          mandate.” - New Basel Committee on Banking
          Supervision (BCBS) Charter, January 2013




Source: BIS. Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision endorses revised liquidity standard for   49
banks http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp130106.htm
50




Section 3 Role of Asia finance in
          rebalancing Asia’s Growth Model
51
What do we mean by “Rebalancing”?




                                    51
52
National rebalancing must address mismatches
and gaps




                                           52
53
Impact of rebalancing on non-reserve currency
countries
• For every 10% revaluation relative to G4 countries, the surplus
  holders of global FX reserves stand to lose roughly 5% of their GDP.
                  Table 2: Impact of Global Imbalances on Surplus Countries
                - Global Net Foreign Asset (NFA) and Liability Position, 2008
    Region/Country          Net Foreign      GDP NFA/GDP        Exchange rate Impact as
                        Asset (+), Deficit   2008        %      impact due to % of GDP
                                       (-) US$ bn              10% change in
                                  US$ bn                                 USD
    Asian Surplus               + 4,994    12,309    + 40.6             - 499      - 4.1
    Other Surplus               + 2,863     3,706    + 77.3             - 286      - 7.7
    Total Surplus               + 7,857    16,015    + 49.1             - 786      - 4.9

    Euro Area                        - 2,584   13,631   - 16.9         +258        + 1.9
    USA                              - 3,690   14,441   - 25.6         +369        + 2.6
    Australia                        - 501      1,062   - 47.2          + 50       + 4.7
    Subtotal Deficit                - 6,775    29,134   - 23.3         + 678       + 2.3
    Other Countries                  - 1,082   16,070    - 6.7          -108       +0.1
    Global Total                           0   61,219
   Source: Author’s calculations.
                                                                                           53
54




Section 4 Conclusion
55
What should be Asia’s stance on Basel III?


• Basel III is now a complex rule books of over 600 pages and has become a
  “one-size-fits-all” rule-book.
• Risk that Basel rules have become too prescriptive, leaving little room for
  banks and regulators in developing countries to exercise judgment in
  conducting lending activities that support the national development agenda.
• The issue is trust between industry and regulators. Board of Directors
  have fiduciary duty and must be trusted to make their judgment on risks and
  rewards. Supervisory authorities should step in when there is supervisory
  judgment that the bank has not recognized the risks and may contribute to
  systemic risks.
• BCBS must trust national regulators to monitor their system risks and only
  step in (via FSAP/FSB/IMF) if the activities of D-SIFIs, G-SIFIs or national
  system contribute to global systemic risks.
                                                                                 55
56
Basel III is necessary, but not sufficient. Look at
system as a whole (including shadow banking)
• We support Basel III’s capital adequacy and we are also fine with the
  compromise on liquidity requirements. The use of model – risk-weighting is
  still under dispute.
• The question is can we solve the banking problem by only looking at the
  banking system while ignoring the shadow banking, NBFI, and long-term?
• The banking problem is that it is too short-term. Basel III only concentrates
  on banking but not on shadow banking, capital markets, pension, insurance
  (the whole system). There is no proper pension or insurance system in
  place to take the long-term risks.
• It doesn’t mean that “if institutions are fixed, then everything will be fixed”.
  It’s the whole class of systemic assets and the linkages of systemic
  liabilities which cut across different institutions that will cause things to blow
  up if they become fragile. We need to focus on cross-cutting issues along
  with institutions. The current policy approach is an “either or” situation.

                                                                                   56
57
An implementation time table, customized to
domestic conditions and imperatives
 US: postponed adoption of Basel III
 Europe: adopting their own approach and argue that they are
 “broadly consistent” with Basel rules
 Bank of England: argued against the complexity of bank
 regulatory rules, and the opacity these rules create
• Asian policymakers should reconsider the practicality of the time
 frame in implementing Basel III, and the urgency of adopting broader
 financial infrastructure and national risk management framework that
 would help to enhance overall system resilience against
 endogenous and exogenous shocks.
• So long as local banks do not have systemic implications on global
  markets with negative spillovers, national regulators should reserve
  the discretion to draw up a timetable for implementation that is
  customized to domestic conditions and imperatives.
                                                                         57
58
Need to work together

• Emerging Asia needs practical implementable rules that best-
  fit Asian conditions.
• We seek to achieve the most effective OUTCOMES of Basel
  objectives AND systemic stability, including NBFIs.

Unless we coordinate, we are less likely to have impact in the
 global debate.
We need to rebalance between implementing rules and
 financial markets to serve the real economy.
We have to avoid rules that will fragilize the Asian economy.



                                                                  58
59




Appendix Amendments to the Liquidity
         Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the
         new BCBS Charter; and
         CRR4
60
    Amendments to LCR in four main areas – BCBS, 6
    January 2013
   High quality assets     Definition of high quality assets for LCR (numerator of the ratio) and the factors that
   (HQLA) & net cash       determine the net liquidity outflows that banks would face in stress (denominator of the
   outflows                ratio)
   Revised timetable       • Same as that of capital requirements: coming fully into effect only in 2019
   for introduction of     • The LCR will be introduced as planned on 1 January 2015. But the minimum
   the LCR – phase-in        requirement will begin at 60%, rising in equal annual steps of 10 percentage points to
   arrangements              reach 100% on 1 January 2019
                           • This will ensure that the new liquidity standard will in no way hinder the ability of the
                             global banking system to finance a recovery
   Usability of stock of   • During periods of stress, banks can use their stock of HQLA, thereby falling below the
   liquid assets in          minimum. It is the responsibility of bank supervisors to give guidance on usability
   distress/transition       according to circumstances
                           • Countries with distressed banking systems have complete flexibility in their application
                             of the LCR until the distress has passed
                           • Liquidity buffers defined by the LCR are to be used in times of stress
                           • This is applicable both during the transition and in steady state
   Further work on the     • Deposits with central banks are the most liquid asset, the interaction between the LCR
   interaction between       and the provision of central bank facilities is important
   LCR & the provision     • Ensure that banks hold sufficient liquid assets to prevent central banks becoming the
   of central bank           "lender of first resort"
   facilities


Source: BIS. Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision endorses revised liquidity standard for                         60
banks http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp130106.htm
61
    LCR - Description

    • To promote short-term resilience of a bank’s liquidity risk profile.
    • To ensure that a bank has an adequate stock of unencumbered high quality
      liquid assets (HQLA).
      – Consists of cash or assets that can be converted into cash at little or no
        loss of value in private markets, to meet liquidity needs for a 30 calendar
        day liquidity stress scenario.
    • Two components:                               Stock of HQLA
                                Total net cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days

    • Absent a situation of financial stress, the value of the ratio be no lower than
      100%1 (i.e. the stock of HQLA should at least equal total net cash
      outflows). Banks are expected to meet this requirement continuously and
      hold a stock of unencumbered HQLA as a defence against the potential
      onset of liquidity stress. During a period of financial stress, banks may use
      their stock of HQLA, thereby falling below 100%.
                                                                                         61
Source: BIS. Annex 1 - Summary description of the LCR.
62
    LCR – Detailed changes: HQLA (1/3)

     Expand the definition of     • Corporate debt securities rated A+ to BBB– with a 50% haircut
     HQLA subject to a higher     • Certain unencumbered equities subject to a 50% haircut
     haircut and limit            • Certain residential mortgage-backed securities rated AA or higher with a 25%
                                    haircut

                                  Aggregate of additional assets, after haircuts, subject to a 15% limit of the
                                  HQLA
     Rating requirement on        Use of local rating scales and inclusion of qualifying commercial paper
     qualifying Level 2 assets
     Usability of the liquidity   Incorporate language related to the expectation that banks will use their pool of
     pool                         HQLA during periods of stress
     Operational requirements     Refine and clarify the operational requirements for HQLA
     Operation of the cap on      Revise and improve the operation of the cap
     Level 2 HQLA
     Alternative liquid asset     Develop the alternative treatments and include a fourth option for sharia-
     (ALA) framework              compliant banks
     Central bank reserves        Clarify language to confirm that supervisors have national discretion to include
                                  or exclude required central bank reserves (as well as overnight and certain
                                  term deposits) as HQLA as they consider appropriate


                                                                                                                     62
Source: BIS. Annex 2 - Complete set of agreed changes to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio.
63
    LCR – Detailed changes: Inflows and Outflows (2/3)

     Insured deposits                • Reduce outflow on certain fully insured retail deposits from 5% to 3%
                                     • Reduce outflow on fully insured non-operational deposits from non-financial corporates,
                                       sovereigns, central banks and public sector entities (PSEs) from 40% to 20%
     Non-financial corporate         Reduce the outflow rate for “non-operational” deposits provided by non-financial corporates,
     deposits                        sovereigns, central banks and PSEs from 75% to 40%
     Committed liquidity             Clarify the definition of liquidity facilities and reduce the drawdown rate on the unused portion of
     facilities to non-financial     committed liquidity facilities to non-financial corporates, sovereigns, central banks and PSEs
     corporates                      from 100% to 30%
     Committed but unfunded          Distinguish between interbank and inter-financial credit and liquidity facilities and reduce the
     inter-financial liquidity and   outflow rate on the former from 100% to 40%
     credit facilities
     Derivatives                     • Additional derivatives risks included in the LCR with a 100% outflow (relates to collateral
                                       substitution, and excess collateral that the bank is contractually obligated to
                                       return/provide if required by a counterparty)
                                     • Introduce a standardised approach for liquidity risk related to market value changes in
                                       derivatives positions
                                     • Assume net outflow of 0% for derivatives (and commitments) that are contractually
                                       secured/collateralised by HQLA
     Trade finance                   Guidance to indicate that a low outflow rate (0–5%) is expected to apply
     Equivalence of central          Reduce the outflow rate on maturing secured funding transactions with central banks from 25%
     bank operations                 to 0%
     Client servicing brokerage      Clarify the treatment of activities related to client servicing brokerage (which generally lead to an
                                     increase in net outflows)

                                                                                                                                         63
Source: BIS. Annex 2. http://www.bis.org/press/p130106.htm
64
    LCR – Detailed changes: Clarification to rule text and
    LCR phase-in (3/3)
     Rules text                  • Clearer guidance on the usability of HQLA, and the
     clarifications                appropriate supervisory response, has been
                                   developed to ensure that the stock of liquid assets is
                                   available to be used when needed
                                 • A number of clarifications to the rules text to promote
                                   consistent application and reduce arbitrage
                                   opportunities (e.g., operational deposits from
                                   wholesale clients, derivatives cash flows, open
                                   maturity loans). Also incorporating previously agreed
                                   FAQ
     Internationally             The minimum LCR in 2015 would be 60% and
     agreed phase-in             increase by 10 percentage points per year to reach
     of the LCR                  100% in 2019



                                                                                             64
Source: BIS. Annex 2. http://www.bis.org/press/p130106.htm
65
    Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR 4) – Overall
    impact on trade finance (TF)
    • CRR 4 is the equivalent of Basel 3 and will be implemented in Europe
      across all 27 countries.
    • Proposed changes under CRR4 in the treatment of TF products supportive
      of TF, which is a critical part to keep the economy ticking on an even keel.
    • Recognition that TF is a low risk activity.
      – ICC study for 2011* shows on an industry-wide basis, there were fewer
        than 3,000 defaults observed in a dataset comprising 11.4 million
        transactions collected for 2005-2010. Typical loss rates for 2008-2010: for
        TF products like L/Cs were 0.007%, export confirmed L/Cs 0.03%, Import
        loans 0.07%, export loans 0.017%.
      – Strong case for arguing that Trade deserves a better treatment under the
        internal ratings based approach (IRB). A lower asset value correlation
        charge (AVC) for TF products would go some way to ensure that trade
        products get the appropriate capital treatment they deserve.

                                                                                       65
Source: International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). Global Risks ‒ Trade Finance, 2011.
66
    Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR 4) – Proposed
    changes
    Uniform         • Under Basel 2, local regulators had to translate the European rules into local rules and
   rule book          regulations – this created scope for differences in the rules and regulations
 Maturity Floor     • Basel left open the option to national discretion to extend the MFW to all TF products –
 Waiver (MFW)         CRR-4 proposes to extend the MFW to all TF products
Credit Conversion   • To reduce CCF applied to non-financial guarantees (i.e. bid bond, advance payment,
  Factor (CCF)        performance and retention guarantees) from 50% to 20%
                    • Under Basel III and CRR 4, exposures to large financial institutions (assets > $100bn) will
                      attract a 1.25 scaling factor to account for systemic risk
                    • While systemic risk is an important issue for banks, trade finance was not a contributor to
  Asset Value         the increased systemic risk within banks during the crisis and should not be penalised
  Correlation       • Important to note that increased linkages between banks, at least for trade finance, is a
    (AVC)             function of a bank’s primary role in facilitating payments within the financial system and not
                      necessarily one of taking on increased counter party risk
                    • Hence, strong case for arguing that the scaling factor applied should be a range varying
                      from anything greater than 1 to a max. of 1.25 instead of applying a flat scaling factor of
                      1.25 across all banks
   Leverage         • To apply more favourable CCF of 20% and 50% to TF products like L/Cs and guarantees.
     Ratio            Basel III proposes to apply a 100% CCF to all contingent liabilities including TF products
    Liquidity       • To recognise 100% of trade inflows in the calculation of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)
     Ratios           in lieu of the Basel III proposed 50% of trade inflows
                                                                                                                 66
67




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Cyberport 1, Level 12
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Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2300 2728
Fax: (852) 2300 2729
www.fungglobalinstitute.org

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Balancing Regulation and Growth in Asia

  • 1. 0 Balance between Regulation and Growth - Implementation of Basel III in Asia Andrew Sheng President, Fung Global Institute Advanced Programme for Central Bankers and Regulators on Basel III 17-19, January 2013 The Chinese University of Hong Kong Institute of Global Economics and Finance © Fung Global Institute
  • 2. 1 Information, opinions, or recommendations contained in this document are submitted solely for information purposes. The factual DISCLAIMER statements have been taken from sources believed reliable but such statements of fact are made without representation to accuracy, completeness, or otherwise. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. All information and opinions are subject to change without notice and the Institute is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. This document is only intended for its addressee/s and may contain privileged or confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that unauthorised use, copying or distribution of this document or any part of its contents, is prohibited. The Fung Global Institute is an independent think-tank and learning institute that generates and disseminates new thinking from ABOUT THE INSTITUTE Asian perspectives on issues that are transforming the global economy. Its business-relevant research is combined with practical experience and learning that can be applied by senior global business executives as well as policymakers and civil society leaders. The Institute is a non-profit organisation based in Hong Kong.
  • 3. 2 Financial Reform Landscape remains Complex 2 Source: E&Y. Financial Regulatory Reform - What it means for bank business models, November 2012.
  • 4. 3 Financial Regulatory Reform • Ensure that tighter standards, such as higher capital and liquidity requirements, do not choke off the global recovery. • Support the development of a global mechanism for managing volatile short-term capital flows, and development of macroprudential surveillance and regulation at the national and regional levels. • Establish an effective regulatory framework for macroprudential supervision and regulation at the national and regional levels. Source: Asian Development Bank Institute, Policy Recommendations to Secure Balanced and Sustainable 3 Growth in Asia, October 2010.
  • 5. 4 Asian Voice and Interests • There needs to be an Asian voice on financial reform and regulation rather than allowing the debate on issues to be dominated by a perceived choice between American and European approaches. • A “one-size-fits-all” approach is inappropriate due to differences in financial systems, stages of development and banking industry practices, and may lead to excessive burdens in areas such as capital and liquidity adequacy requirements and leverage ratios. • In addition, there is a risk of spillover effects from developed country regulatory changes and low-interest-rate policies that lead to migration of risky financial activities to Asia that could affect regional financial stability. • Asian leaders should consider sponsoring their own research on the impacts of the new regulations on Asian financial institutions and markets. Source: Asian Development Bank Institute, Policy Recommendations to Secure Balanced and Sustainable 4 Growth in Asia, October 2010.
  • 6. 5 Key Points • We need to put the Implementation of Basel III in Asia within the proper context. • Post-2007 Global Financial Crisis, Basel III is an important standardization of minimum capital and liquidity standards for global banking. • This is a NECESSARY, but NOT SUFFICIENT CONDITION for global financial stability, because Financial Stability Board and national regulators have only just begun to address SHADOW BANKING, or non-bank financial intermediaries, risk issues. Although important, banks account for 43.1 percent of global financial assets as at the end of 2011, whereas stock market capitalization and bond markets (excluding derivative financial assets) account for more than half of financial sector risks. • Hence, to obtain overall financial system stability, we need to look also at real sector imbalances, monetary and fiscal policies, and interconnectivity and feedback mechanisms between financial sectors (banks and shadow banks) as a systemic whole. • We must never forget that Finance must serve the Real Sector, not the other way around. 5
  • 7. 6 Key Questions • What are Basel III’s main impact on (1) banking system and (2) growth and overall credit? • While Basel III are Minimum conditions for capital and liquidity, do the complex calculations on risk weights impair or disadvantage EME banks? • Which parts of Basel III should be priority for implementation? Should we move out of standard risk-based model towards Internal Risk-Based (IRB) models? • What areas of structure (shadow banking), financial infrastructure and other issues should we consider ( Basel III included as part of package) for financial system stability? 6
  • 8. 7 Contents • Introduction • What are the key issues and concerns? • Role of Asia finance in rebalancing Asia’s Growth Model • Conclusion Appendix: Amendments to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the new BCBS Charter; and CRR4 7
  • 9. 8 8
  • 11. 10 Asia finance must be there to serve the real sector 10
  • 12. 11 Asian banks are the primary providers of funding for private sector growth Asia’s shift towards a domestic and regionally-driven engine of growth would require continuous funding from Asia’s bank- dominated financial system However, Asia faces funding issue under Basel III rules that would reduce the incentive for banks to lend to trade finance and SMEs, and discourage long-term lending for infrastructure at a time when this is critical for Asia’s sustained growth While Basel III requirements on higher capital adequacy, enhanced liquidity and an overall leverage cap are commendable, the detailed rules on liquidity and risk-weighting may restrain the funding capacity of Asian banks 11
  • 13. 12 Banking sector has to adjust to unprecedented regulatory change 12 Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
  • 14. 13 Global capital markets business also has to adjust to regulation 13 Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
  • 15. 14 Need for adaptive business models to seize new growth trends 14 Source: McKinsey, BCG.
  • 16. 15 Going to where the new trade corridors are 15 Source: BCG. The Transaction Banking Advantage, October 2012.
  • 17. 16 Revamping payments value chain 16 Source: BCG. The Transaction Banking Advantage, October 2012.
  • 18. 17 Need true banking transformation to improve financial metrics 17 Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
  • 19. 18 Need to reverse declining ROE due to lack of performance improvement and rising capital ratios 18 Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
  • 20. 19 Business model transformation – the basis for future growth • Capital markets business is most challenging due to regulatory pressure, high funding costs, and shrinking revenues. 19 Source: McKinsey. The Triple Transformation, October 2012.
  • 21. 20 The need for a balanced view, with appropriate “fit” for EMEs 1. Basel III was designed to address the causes of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis in the advanced markets, aimed to resolve the issue of under-capitalisation and over-leverage in the advanced wholesale banking model. 2. Current Basel III on risk-taking governance requirements represent substantial improvement in quality, quantity and comparability of banks’ risk/reward profile. Asia needs that and supports Basel III. 3. However, there is substantial variation in quality of banks, supervisors and regulators between more retail-based systems (e.g., China, Canada, India, Australia) and wholesale systems (US, UK and some EU countries). 4. Need for clarity on WHAT is National discretion? WHAT fits local conditions and what is necessary to supplement Basel III implementation to ensure overall systemic stability. 20
  • 22. 21 Agree that under-capitalisation and illiquidity of internationally-active banks need to be solved Figure 1. Ratio of Debt to GDP Among Selected Advanced Economics (In percent, GDP-weighted, 1987=100) 21
  • 23. 22 Do Basel III rules address the priority policy and real sector needs in Asia? • While Asian banks can meet the current Basel III capital requirements, it is not clear as Asia grows faster with higher credit needs, whether there will capital constraints going forward. • Asian banks are at different stages of development and Asian countries have different national imperatives. • Capacity of Asian banks to implement Basel II/III vary hugely between banks, especially the smaller and non-internationally active banks. • Europe is expected to have the largest shortfall of over €272 billion in meeting Basel III capital requirements, and the US may have a shortfall of $60 billion. 22
  • 24. 23 Tighter financial conditions resulting in capital shortfalls, in turn worsening the real economy Source: IIF. “The Cumulative Impact on the Global Economy of Changes in the Financial 23 Regulatory Framework”. September 2011.
  • 25. 24 Basel 2.5/III uses Risk Weighting and Models to assess Risks • Advanced country banks have high sovereign ratings and have experience in Internal Risk Based (IRB) Models which assign lower risks, if banks can prove with data. • Asian banks are less sophisticated and rely on standard model, and because sovereign credit ratings are lower, and Asian banks do not have good risk data, they automatically have higher capital costs relative to European banks (see next Slide). • Example: For top ASEAN banks For top European banks For top American banks • Basel III’s CET1 = • Basel II’s CT1 average = • Basel III’s Tier 1 Common average of 10.7% 10.2% (one bank has an Ratio average = 8.4% • Basel II’s CT1 = average average of below 7%) of 11.5% 24
  • 26. 25 Asian banks disadvantaged with the use of sovereign credit rating • Much more capital needed to support the same amount of loans or bonds (based on S&P risk weights, ASEAN+3 banks will need 300% more capital). 25
  • 27. 26 Asian banks have high RWA relative to total assets 26
  • 28. 27 Top banks in Asia Total ROA CAR CAR Cost to Income LTD Ratio Country Largest Bank Assets % (Tier 1 %) (Total %) % % Germany Deutsche Bank 2805.29 0.20 12.90 14.50 82.83 68.55 France BNP Paribas 2547.68 0.31 11.60 14.00 NA 121.88 US J.P. Morgan 2265.79 0.84 12.30 15.40 64.70 64.17 US Citibank 1873.88 0.59 13.60 16.99 65.00 71.25 Japan Mitsubishi UFJ 2603.95 0.19 12.31 14.91 NA NA China ICBC 2476.30 1.35 10.07 13.17 29.91 63.50 Hong Kong HSBC 1333.03 0.28 9.10 14.40 66.20 83.20 Singapore DBS 279.49 0.89 12.90 15.80 43.30 86.40 South Korea Kookmin Bank 238.62 0.80 10.14 13.09 NA 105.00 Malaysia Maybank 135.96 1.08 11.84 15.36 49.60 90.10 Taiwan Bank of Taiwan 135.74 0.09 10.50 11.38 NA 67.61 India ICICI Bank 94.73 1.61 12.70 18.50 42.91 76.10 Thailand Bangkok Bank 68.69 1.30 12.21 15.35 NA 92.60 Indonesia Bank Mandiri 56.66 2.23 14.90 17.20 41.60 74.10 Philippines Banco de Oro 26.84 0.95 10.00 15.80 67.90 66.73 27 Source: The Asset, Volume 14 Number 11, December 2012.
  • 29. 28 Whither Basel III for Asia? • The US has postponed implementation of capital rules for the year 2013 and delayed implementation of liquidity rules. Pressure to delay the start date was due to concerns over the complexity of the rules and the cost to banks at a time of weak global economic growth. • Europe is also re-considering and the Bank of England has expressed concerns on the complexity of the rules, especially since bank supervision is returning to the Bank of England. “Rather than pushing through a flawed Basel III, we need to take the time to do it right so we do not have to do it over. … Basel III’s implementation has been postponed, and that offers a real chance to get it right. If we do, we won’t need Basel IV” – Thomas M. Hoenig, 2012* As a result, Basel Committee announced agreement on Liquidity Rules with a delayed phase in period. * Get Basel III right and avoid Basel IV. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/99ece1b0-3fa0-11e2-b2ce- 00144feabdc0.html#axzz2HRMF1qU1 28
  • 30. 29 Section 2 What are the key issues and concerns?
  • 31. 30 Emerging Market banks find it currently easier to meet Basel III requirements Figure 2. International Comparison of the Financial Liabilities/Assets Ratio 30
  • 32. 31 Asia has its own national banking development agenda and time frame • The extensiveness of the rules will have tremendous implications on re-shaping and micro-managing the business models of banks locally, regionally and worldwide. • This raises the question of whether national regulators should be given more discretion to adjust their regulatory and supervisory guidelines in line with the Basel principles in a manner that suit their national banking development agenda and time frame. • BCBS has now created a small team to look at “simplifying Basel III”. This is the time to engage BCBS through Asian regulators which can influence the final outcome, especially those which are represented either at G20 or FSB/BCBS levels. 31
  • 33. 32 Implementation of Basel III will have costs on all banks, global or local Constrained credit provision by Emerging Market banks Risk of synchronised slowdown globally if Asian growth also constrained by limits on credit Retrenchment and deleveraging by global banks 32
  • 34. 33 Issue 1: Potential trap of synchronized recession • If the unintended consequences of implementing Basel III are to slow Asian growth because of the limited capacity of the banking system to support the growth of the real economy, especially for SMEs, trade and infrastructure finance, then the whole world may be trapped in a policy-induced unintended synchronized recession. • Solution: Each Asian country should study what are the credit needs projected to 2020 and see if addition capital would be required to meet the new credit needs. 33
  • 35. 34 Issue 2: Risk-weightings biased against Asian banks • Basel capital rules favour banks that have developed “advanced risk models” for determining risk-weighted assets (RWA). Asian banks are some 10 years behind in this respect. Hence, they will not be able to use efficient conversion factors even if they are given a transition period up to 2019. • Solution: Each Asian country will have to develop better data- bases on credit history in order to re-calculate the risk weights; this will enable the larger banks to move toward Internal Risk- Based models with their own risk weights. 34
  • 36. 35 Issue 3: Credit ratings biased against Asian banks • The Basel III risk-weightings are based on current sovereign credit ratings. • Asian economies (and by definition, Asian banks) have lower credit ratings, even though their sovereign debt has high foreign exchange backing (up to 50%) and Asian economies have higher savings and lower fiscal debt. • Many Asian banks are state-owned, thus the urgency to raise large capital cushions is not as imperative as the European case. • Solution: Asia should consider creating Mutual (owned by users and industry) not-for-profit Credit Rating Agencies that can give ratings that are more objectively based. This will provide competition to current top 3 that have become TBTF. 35
  • 37. 36 Issue 4: Liquidity risk framework not directly relevant to Asian banks • The Basel liquidity risk framework aims to restrain the balance sheets of banks which: (1) are highly leveraged; (2) have significant maturity mismatches; and (3) are funded mainly by the wholesale markets. • However, Asian banks generally do not fall within any of these three categories because they have large deposit bases, the population has high savings rate, and the fiscal and balance of payments positions at the national level are much more robust. Solution: Asian banks should work with central banks to examine how domestic liquidity can be provided in manner which would not create a ‘rush for funding’. 36
  • 38. 37 Basel liquidity rules vs. Asian situation • Flexible exchange rates • High loan-to- deposit ratios • Substantial liquid assets • High leverage • Low nominal leverage With low fiscal debt and high foreign exchange, limits on loan-to-deposit ratio, Central Banks can easily provide liquidity to domestic banks. 37
  • 39. 38 Issue 5: Asia has huge need for infrastructure funding • The detailed rules on liquidity, risk-weightings and leverage may constrain the capacity of Asian banks to fund infrastructure since there is growing maturity mismatch risk. • Furthermore, Basel III rules also make asset securitization more expensive. • The ADB estimates that US$8 trillion will be required to finance infrastructure, creating massive potential for the development of Asian municipal and infrastructure bond markets. • Solution: Develop Asia’s fixed income markets through asset securitization. This would help to lessen the maturity mismatch in bank balance sheets [e.g., Cagamas and HKMC]. 38
  • 40. 39 Large interest in infrastructure financing • Asia is at the early stages of securitized debt markets. • China also needs mortgage securitization to reduce maturity mismatch, particularly through bond market. 39
  • 41. 40 Issue 6: Trade finance is Asia’s lifeblood • Trade finance business is forecast to grow at 9% annually to 60% of all global trade by 2020, with one leg in Asia. Trade finance underpins 30–40% of the lending SMEs received. It forms the most relevant part of working capital financing • Solution: Central banks should incentivise banks to promote trade finance and consider establishing a “Trade window” for real market transactions. 40
  • 42. 41 How to ringfence trade finance in times of crisis • Central bank could offer low-cost liquidity to commercial banks, against “ringfenced” portfolios of trade assets. • Public entity could purchase trade and hold trade assets directly. • Public entity could “guarantee” specific trade obligations, to support a liquid market in trade assets. 41
  • 43. 42 Basel III’s impact on trade BAFT-IFSA: Basel III Demand for trade may raise trade finance finance rising rapidly costs by 18-40% 42 * BAFT-IFSA, Basel III-Impact on Trade, Tod Burwell, November 2011, Washington, D.C.
  • 44. 43 Issue 7: Asia’s SME development drive and job creation • Asia is at the cusp of an SME development drive to promote job creation, innovation and market competition. SMEs rely heavily on trade finance and short-term bank credit, they account for 80-90% of job creation to address employment and equity challenges. • Both European Commission and UK recognize that lending to SMEs, though carrying higher credit risks, have large social benefits in terms of growth and employment generation. • The net effect of higher risk-weights on SMEs and higher costs and lesser credit to SMEs may generate exactly the economic slowdown that creates higher risk for the banking system. • Hence, policymakers have to weigh the positive spillover effects of SME health vs protecting banks against credit risk. • Solution: Policy-makers should work alongside private sources of equity to meet SME financing needs. 43
  • 45. 44 Lending to small enterprises still lower than medium and large enterprises Figure 3. Growth Rate of Outstanding Loans Extended to Large Enterprises, Medium Enterprises, and Small Enterprises 44
  • 46. 45 Access to finance is a major problem for SMEs • A ECB survey shows that access to finance is perceived as the second most pressing problem for SMEs, after their order book.* • Accordingly, the European Banking Authority (EBA) is examining a proposal by the European Parliament to adjust the risk-weights for lending to SMEs, and an increase in the threshold of EUR2 million for the Standardised Approach and EUR5 million for the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) Approach. * European Central Bank, Survey on the Access to Finance of SMEs in Euro Area, April 2012. 45
  • 47. 46 We are in a self-fulfilling vicious cycle Risk- SME weighting have high increases risks risk Economy We do will slow not lend down to SMEs SMEs will not be able to grow We have to distinguish the positive externalities of SMEs, trade finance, infrastructure, which creates jobs and future growth, from the negative externalities of fast trading, high leverage, things that will destroy the economy systemically 46
  • 48. 47 Issue 8: Implementation cost on banking operations • Lastly, the implementation of complex Basel III rules will result in Asian banks incurring disproportionately large costs. • Asian banks are still in the process of implementing Basel I and II (and 2.5); and yet they are now burdened by Basel III. • Asian banks’ expertise and experience are scarce. –Whether scarcity management and regulatory resources should be focused on developing a banking system that supports and fits Asian realities, rather than “one-size-fits-all” rules designed for implementation by advanced countries. • Global banks have the capacity to absorb these costs but not the smaller national banks in Asia, which are at different stages of development. • Solution: Asian banks should review their business models that can help generate new revenues to help fund these costs. 47
  • 49. 48 Non-Bank Assets (NBFI or shadow banking) more than Bank Assets • Regulatory arbitrage from banks to shadow banks more than bank assets. • Contagion can occur between banks and shadow banking. Risk are not just in banks. 48
  • 50. 49 Basel Rules are not law and do not have legal force • Whilst national regulators need to use Basel III as standards, the total national requirements and law are still paramount. “3. Legal Status. The BCBS does not possess any formal supranational authority. Its decisions do not have legal force. Rather, the BCBS relies on its members' commitments, as described in Section 5, to achieve its mandate.” - New Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) Charter, January 2013 Source: BIS. Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision endorses revised liquidity standard for 49 banks http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp130106.htm
  • 51. 50 Section 3 Role of Asia finance in rebalancing Asia’s Growth Model
  • 52. 51 What do we mean by “Rebalancing”? 51
  • 53. 52 National rebalancing must address mismatches and gaps 52
  • 54. 53 Impact of rebalancing on non-reserve currency countries • For every 10% revaluation relative to G4 countries, the surplus holders of global FX reserves stand to lose roughly 5% of their GDP. Table 2: Impact of Global Imbalances on Surplus Countries - Global Net Foreign Asset (NFA) and Liability Position, 2008 Region/Country Net Foreign GDP NFA/GDP Exchange rate Impact as Asset (+), Deficit 2008 % impact due to % of GDP (-) US$ bn 10% change in US$ bn USD Asian Surplus + 4,994 12,309 + 40.6 - 499 - 4.1 Other Surplus + 2,863 3,706 + 77.3 - 286 - 7.7 Total Surplus + 7,857 16,015 + 49.1 - 786 - 4.9 Euro Area - 2,584 13,631 - 16.9 +258 + 1.9 USA - 3,690 14,441 - 25.6 +369 + 2.6 Australia - 501 1,062 - 47.2 + 50 + 4.7 Subtotal Deficit - 6,775 29,134 - 23.3 + 678 + 2.3 Other Countries - 1,082 16,070 - 6.7 -108 +0.1 Global Total 0 61,219 Source: Author’s calculations. 53
  • 56. 55 What should be Asia’s stance on Basel III? • Basel III is now a complex rule books of over 600 pages and has become a “one-size-fits-all” rule-book. • Risk that Basel rules have become too prescriptive, leaving little room for banks and regulators in developing countries to exercise judgment in conducting lending activities that support the national development agenda. • The issue is trust between industry and regulators. Board of Directors have fiduciary duty and must be trusted to make their judgment on risks and rewards. Supervisory authorities should step in when there is supervisory judgment that the bank has not recognized the risks and may contribute to systemic risks. • BCBS must trust national regulators to monitor their system risks and only step in (via FSAP/FSB/IMF) if the activities of D-SIFIs, G-SIFIs or national system contribute to global systemic risks. 55
  • 57. 56 Basel III is necessary, but not sufficient. Look at system as a whole (including shadow banking) • We support Basel III’s capital adequacy and we are also fine with the compromise on liquidity requirements. The use of model – risk-weighting is still under dispute. • The question is can we solve the banking problem by only looking at the banking system while ignoring the shadow banking, NBFI, and long-term? • The banking problem is that it is too short-term. Basel III only concentrates on banking but not on shadow banking, capital markets, pension, insurance (the whole system). There is no proper pension or insurance system in place to take the long-term risks. • It doesn’t mean that “if institutions are fixed, then everything will be fixed”. It’s the whole class of systemic assets and the linkages of systemic liabilities which cut across different institutions that will cause things to blow up if they become fragile. We need to focus on cross-cutting issues along with institutions. The current policy approach is an “either or” situation. 56
  • 58. 57 An implementation time table, customized to domestic conditions and imperatives US: postponed adoption of Basel III Europe: adopting their own approach and argue that they are “broadly consistent” with Basel rules Bank of England: argued against the complexity of bank regulatory rules, and the opacity these rules create • Asian policymakers should reconsider the practicality of the time frame in implementing Basel III, and the urgency of adopting broader financial infrastructure and national risk management framework that would help to enhance overall system resilience against endogenous and exogenous shocks. • So long as local banks do not have systemic implications on global markets with negative spillovers, national regulators should reserve the discretion to draw up a timetable for implementation that is customized to domestic conditions and imperatives. 57
  • 59. 58 Need to work together • Emerging Asia needs practical implementable rules that best- fit Asian conditions. • We seek to achieve the most effective OUTCOMES of Basel objectives AND systemic stability, including NBFIs. Unless we coordinate, we are less likely to have impact in the global debate. We need to rebalance between implementing rules and financial markets to serve the real economy. We have to avoid rules that will fragilize the Asian economy. 58
  • 60. 59 Appendix Amendments to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the new BCBS Charter; and CRR4
  • 61. 60 Amendments to LCR in four main areas – BCBS, 6 January 2013 High quality assets Definition of high quality assets for LCR (numerator of the ratio) and the factors that (HQLA) & net cash determine the net liquidity outflows that banks would face in stress (denominator of the outflows ratio) Revised timetable • Same as that of capital requirements: coming fully into effect only in 2019 for introduction of • The LCR will be introduced as planned on 1 January 2015. But the minimum the LCR – phase-in requirement will begin at 60%, rising in equal annual steps of 10 percentage points to arrangements reach 100% on 1 January 2019 • This will ensure that the new liquidity standard will in no way hinder the ability of the global banking system to finance a recovery Usability of stock of • During periods of stress, banks can use their stock of HQLA, thereby falling below the liquid assets in minimum. It is the responsibility of bank supervisors to give guidance on usability distress/transition according to circumstances • Countries with distressed banking systems have complete flexibility in their application of the LCR until the distress has passed • Liquidity buffers defined by the LCR are to be used in times of stress • This is applicable both during the transition and in steady state Further work on the • Deposits with central banks are the most liquid asset, the interaction between the LCR interaction between and the provision of central bank facilities is important LCR & the provision • Ensure that banks hold sufficient liquid assets to prevent central banks becoming the of central bank "lender of first resort" facilities Source: BIS. Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision endorses revised liquidity standard for 60 banks http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp130106.htm
  • 62. 61 LCR - Description • To promote short-term resilience of a bank’s liquidity risk profile. • To ensure that a bank has an adequate stock of unencumbered high quality liquid assets (HQLA). – Consists of cash or assets that can be converted into cash at little or no loss of value in private markets, to meet liquidity needs for a 30 calendar day liquidity stress scenario. • Two components: Stock of HQLA Total net cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days • Absent a situation of financial stress, the value of the ratio be no lower than 100%1 (i.e. the stock of HQLA should at least equal total net cash outflows). Banks are expected to meet this requirement continuously and hold a stock of unencumbered HQLA as a defence against the potential onset of liquidity stress. During a period of financial stress, banks may use their stock of HQLA, thereby falling below 100%. 61 Source: BIS. Annex 1 - Summary description of the LCR.
  • 63. 62 LCR – Detailed changes: HQLA (1/3) Expand the definition of • Corporate debt securities rated A+ to BBB– with a 50% haircut HQLA subject to a higher • Certain unencumbered equities subject to a 50% haircut haircut and limit • Certain residential mortgage-backed securities rated AA or higher with a 25% haircut Aggregate of additional assets, after haircuts, subject to a 15% limit of the HQLA Rating requirement on Use of local rating scales and inclusion of qualifying commercial paper qualifying Level 2 assets Usability of the liquidity Incorporate language related to the expectation that banks will use their pool of pool HQLA during periods of stress Operational requirements Refine and clarify the operational requirements for HQLA Operation of the cap on Revise and improve the operation of the cap Level 2 HQLA Alternative liquid asset Develop the alternative treatments and include a fourth option for sharia- (ALA) framework compliant banks Central bank reserves Clarify language to confirm that supervisors have national discretion to include or exclude required central bank reserves (as well as overnight and certain term deposits) as HQLA as they consider appropriate 62 Source: BIS. Annex 2 - Complete set of agreed changes to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio.
  • 64. 63 LCR – Detailed changes: Inflows and Outflows (2/3) Insured deposits • Reduce outflow on certain fully insured retail deposits from 5% to 3% • Reduce outflow on fully insured non-operational deposits from non-financial corporates, sovereigns, central banks and public sector entities (PSEs) from 40% to 20% Non-financial corporate Reduce the outflow rate for “non-operational” deposits provided by non-financial corporates, deposits sovereigns, central banks and PSEs from 75% to 40% Committed liquidity Clarify the definition of liquidity facilities and reduce the drawdown rate on the unused portion of facilities to non-financial committed liquidity facilities to non-financial corporates, sovereigns, central banks and PSEs corporates from 100% to 30% Committed but unfunded Distinguish between interbank and inter-financial credit and liquidity facilities and reduce the inter-financial liquidity and outflow rate on the former from 100% to 40% credit facilities Derivatives • Additional derivatives risks included in the LCR with a 100% outflow (relates to collateral substitution, and excess collateral that the bank is contractually obligated to return/provide if required by a counterparty) • Introduce a standardised approach for liquidity risk related to market value changes in derivatives positions • Assume net outflow of 0% for derivatives (and commitments) that are contractually secured/collateralised by HQLA Trade finance Guidance to indicate that a low outflow rate (0–5%) is expected to apply Equivalence of central Reduce the outflow rate on maturing secured funding transactions with central banks from 25% bank operations to 0% Client servicing brokerage Clarify the treatment of activities related to client servicing brokerage (which generally lead to an increase in net outflows) 63 Source: BIS. Annex 2. http://www.bis.org/press/p130106.htm
  • 65. 64 LCR – Detailed changes: Clarification to rule text and LCR phase-in (3/3) Rules text • Clearer guidance on the usability of HQLA, and the clarifications appropriate supervisory response, has been developed to ensure that the stock of liquid assets is available to be used when needed • A number of clarifications to the rules text to promote consistent application and reduce arbitrage opportunities (e.g., operational deposits from wholesale clients, derivatives cash flows, open maturity loans). Also incorporating previously agreed FAQ Internationally The minimum LCR in 2015 would be 60% and agreed phase-in increase by 10 percentage points per year to reach of the LCR 100% in 2019 64 Source: BIS. Annex 2. http://www.bis.org/press/p130106.htm
  • 66. 65 Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR 4) – Overall impact on trade finance (TF) • CRR 4 is the equivalent of Basel 3 and will be implemented in Europe across all 27 countries. • Proposed changes under CRR4 in the treatment of TF products supportive of TF, which is a critical part to keep the economy ticking on an even keel. • Recognition that TF is a low risk activity. – ICC study for 2011* shows on an industry-wide basis, there were fewer than 3,000 defaults observed in a dataset comprising 11.4 million transactions collected for 2005-2010. Typical loss rates for 2008-2010: for TF products like L/Cs were 0.007%, export confirmed L/Cs 0.03%, Import loans 0.07%, export loans 0.017%. – Strong case for arguing that Trade deserves a better treatment under the internal ratings based approach (IRB). A lower asset value correlation charge (AVC) for TF products would go some way to ensure that trade products get the appropriate capital treatment they deserve. 65 Source: International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). Global Risks ‒ Trade Finance, 2011.
  • 67. 66 Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR 4) – Proposed changes Uniform • Under Basel 2, local regulators had to translate the European rules into local rules and rule book regulations – this created scope for differences in the rules and regulations Maturity Floor • Basel left open the option to national discretion to extend the MFW to all TF products – Waiver (MFW) CRR-4 proposes to extend the MFW to all TF products Credit Conversion • To reduce CCF applied to non-financial guarantees (i.e. bid bond, advance payment, Factor (CCF) performance and retention guarantees) from 50% to 20% • Under Basel III and CRR 4, exposures to large financial institutions (assets > $100bn) will attract a 1.25 scaling factor to account for systemic risk • While systemic risk is an important issue for banks, trade finance was not a contributor to Asset Value the increased systemic risk within banks during the crisis and should not be penalised Correlation • Important to note that increased linkages between banks, at least for trade finance, is a (AVC) function of a bank’s primary role in facilitating payments within the financial system and not necessarily one of taking on increased counter party risk • Hence, strong case for arguing that the scaling factor applied should be a range varying from anything greater than 1 to a max. of 1.25 instead of applying a flat scaling factor of 1.25 across all banks Leverage • To apply more favourable CCF of 20% and 50% to TF products like L/Cs and guarantees. Ratio Basel III proposes to apply a 100% CCF to all contingent liabilities including TF products Liquidity • To recognise 100% of trade inflows in the calculation of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) Ratios in lieu of the Basel III proposed 50% of trade inflows 66
  • 68. 67 Fung Global Institute Cyberport 1, Level 12 100 Cyberport Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2300 2728 Fax: (852) 2300 2729 www.fungglobalinstitute.org