1. A Shift from Market-driven to Institution-driven Regionalization in East Asia June 2, 2006 Shujiro URATA Waseda University

4. Intra-regional Trade (%) 68.6 67.2 67.2 66.8 27.3 29.9 EU25 39.6 35.0 55.9 41.4 8.1 6.7 NAFTA 59.5 46.9 49.6 39.0 12.9 8.2 East Asia 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 Imports Exports trade in world trade Share of intra-regional trade in region's trade Share of intra-regional

6. Changing Composition of East Asia’s Trade (%) 100 100 100 100 Total 5.4 7.3 9.1 12.7 Textiles & garment 2.3 3.7 7.7 9.0 Autos 18.1 9.7 16.8 11.1 Electrical 11.6 7.5 19.4 15.9 Office & telecom equipment 41.8 34.3 53.6 46.6 Machinery 4.0 5.3 4.3 4.6 Metal 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.3 Wood, paper, & furniture 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.0 Leather, rubber, footwear, etc 9.0 8.8 6.5 5.0 Chemicals 72.7 68.8 88.7 86.1 Total manufacture 16.8 15.4 5.1 5.4 Mining & fuels 8.9 12.9 4.1 7.0 Agriculture 2000-04 1990-94 2000-04 1990-94 Imports Exports

8. Intra-industry trade index -0.02 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.50 0.26 Japan 0.03 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.56 0.50 China 0.06 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.88 0.79 NIES 0.29 0.47 0.18 0.20 0.86 0.66 ASEAN Change 00-04 90-94 Change 00-04 90-94 India East Asia

9. Types of Intra-industry trade in East Asia (%) 63.5 15.1 21.3 2004 56.5 16.1 27.4 2000 54.2 14.1 31.8 1995 54.2 3.3 42.5 1990 Vertical intra-industry trade Horizontal intra-industry trade Inter-industry trade Year

10. Share of Parts in Overall Trade (%) 16.6 97.0 18.5 56.0 East Asia Textiles and Apparel 19.5 90.9 92.7 53.9 East Asia Road vehicles 69.7 73.1 83.1 85.4 East Asia Electrical & Apparatus: 43.8 68.6 45.8 66.7 East Asia Office and telecommunications equipment US India Japan East Asia Exporter Importers

13. FDI Inflows as a Proportion to Domestic Capital Formation (%)

14. Sectoral Distribution of FDI Inflows (%) share of total 35.0 36.4 53.5 na Manufacturing 4.0 12.6 na 6.5 Transport machinery 61.9 35.9 11.9 43.1 Electric machinery 5.3 13.2 32.2 1.7 General machinery 10.0 18.5 10.2 17.1 Chemicals 6.9 5.1 13.6 9.6 Metals 100 100 100 100 Manufacturing Taiwan Korea Thailand Malaysia

16. Geographical Allocation of Trade by Japanese MNCs in East Asia 0.4 0.8 43.3 54.3 97.7 Electric and Electronics Machinery 1.2 2.1 31.1 64.4 95.5 Manufacturing Total Imports 4.0 10.6 31.9 50.5 82.4 Electric and Electronics Machinery 5.1 8.9 35.1 47.2 82.4 Manufacturing Total America Asia Asia Europe North Other Japan Total Exports

17. Share of Intra-firm trade in overall trade (%): 2001 94.9 100.0 72.6 44.3 Electronics Machinery 56.6 67.1 29.8 27.7 Electric Machinery 93.9 98.9 65.9 46.7 Manufacturing Total Imports from 84.8 80.3 80.8 95.5 Electronics Machinery 81.5 51.7 75.8 98.3 Electric Machinery 80.9 73.8 70.2 96.0 Manufacturing Total Exports to America Asia Europe North Other Japan

19. Tariff Rates (unweighted, %) 27.9 30.0 28.3 2004 79.9 69.8 79.0 1990 India 13.5 16.4 14.0 2003 39.0 30.0 38.5 1989 Thailand 4.2 5.7 4.5 2003 27.9 29.9 28.3 1988 Philippines 7.8 4.5 7.3 2003 14.9 10.9 14.5 1988 Malaysia 6.1 8.0 6.4 2003 19.2 18.2 19.2 1989 Indonesia 9.7 10.0 9.8 2004 40.6 36.1 40.4 1992 China Manufactures Primary All

21. FTAs in Action and Negotiation in East Asia Singapore-India* India-Sri Lanka Singapore-Mexico India-ASEAN(2005) Singapore-Canada China-ASEAN(2005) India-Egypt Malaysia-New Zealand Thailand-New Zealand (2005) India-Chile Malaysia-Australia Thailand-Australia (2005) India-Mauritius Korea-Singapore* Japan-Mexico (2005) Hong Kong-New Zealand Korea-ASEAN Taiwan-Panama(2004) Thailand-EFTA Japan-Philippines China-Macau (2004) Thailand-Peru* Japan-Thailand China-Hong Kong (2004) Thailand-US Japan-Malaysia* Korea-Chile (2004) Thailand-India* Japan-Korea Singapore-US (2004) Singapore-Brunei-Chile-NZ Japan-Indonesia Singapore-EFTA (2003) Singapore-Kuwait Japan-ASEAN Singapore-Australia (2003) Singapore-Panama China-Chile Japan-Singapore (2002) Singapore-Peru China-New Zealand Singapore-New Zealand (2001) Singapore-Qatar* China-Australia AFTA(1992) Singapore-Sri Lanka China-Thailand* Bangkok Treaty (1976) In Negotiation In Negotiation In Action