This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures event 'FarmWater Futures'. 30th March 2010

1. Adaptng t a changi
i o ng
cl at
i e
m
Dr Jery Knox
. r

2. O uti
lne
1. Impacts on agroclimate
2. Impacts on potato yield and water use
3. Responses - adaptation

3. O bs ved Eur
er opean annual
m ean ai t per ur
r em at e
2.00
1.75 2008 10th warmest on record
e 1.50
g
a
r 1990s warmest
e 1.25
v decade in last 100
a
9 1.00 years
9
8
1
-
0 0.75
5
8
1 0.50
o
t
d 0.25
e
r )
a C
p 0.00
mo
o (
c -0.25
,
n
o
i
t
a
i -0.50
v
e -0.75
d
e
r
u
t -1.00
a
r
e
p -1.25
m
e
T -1.50
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Annual deviations (land only)
10-year moving average (land only)

4. C l at w i contnue t
i e l
m l i o
change
Global surface
temperature increase:
<10% probability less
than 1.5 degrees
Likely range 2.0-4.5
deg with best guess
3.0 degrees
Higher than 4.5 deg
cannot be excluded

5. C l at change i pact
i e
m m
pat ays
hw

6. C l at varabit
i e
m i lyi
drves irgaton
i ri i
dem and
100
Evapotranspiration (ET)
90
80
70
60
50
40 Rainfall (P)
30
20
10
0
ov
l
pr
ar
ct
Ju
ug
ay
n
b
n
ec
p
Ju
Fe
Ja
A
O
M
N
Se
A
M
D

7. Pr ct changes i
edi ed n
evapotans r i (
r piaton ET)

8. Pr ct changes i r nf l
edi ed n ai al
( AB,2050s
NI )
2050L 2050H
60
40
Precipitation anomaly (%) .
20
0
‐20
‐40
‐60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

9. Long- er aver
t m age
agr i at ( 961 90)
oclm e 1 -

10. Average agr i at
oclm e
Low em isons
si
2050s

11. Average agr i at
oclm e
Hi em isons
gh si
2050s

12. C urentw at r our
r er es ce
sr s
tes
(Source: EA, 2008) (Source: PCL, 2009)

13. Pot o pr
at oducton and
i
w at r our
er es ces
5% 8%
9%
22% 28%
42%
25%
20%
29%
12%
In the future, potato production likely move onto new land with
secure water supplies

14. C as s udi
e t es
Farm site (2003-08)
LF Papworth and Son, Felmingham
Maris piper (pre-pack)
Sandy loam soil
Overhead irrigation
Scheduled for scab control and bulking
Experimental site (2003-08)
Cambridge University Farm

15. O bserved v sm ul ed
i at
yi ds f bas i
el or elne

16. Pr ct changes i yi d
edi ed n el
( ha-1)2050s
t

17. Fut e irgaton needs
ur ri i
( m )2050s
m
1. Future ‘average year’ more like a current ‘dry
year’
2. Irrigation schemes could fail to meet future
peak irrigation demand in 50% of years

18. C l at uncerai y -
i e
m t nt
i pact on irgaton ( m )
m s ri i m
1995, typical dry year
0.007
0.006
Probability density (per mm)
0.005
2050L
0.004 2050H
Actual
0.003
0.002
0.001
0
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Irrigation requirement (mm)

19. I pacton
m
irgaton cos s
ri i t
Increase in daily peak
• Large pumps and main pipes
• More mobile irrigators needed for given area
• But solid set costs are mostly not affected – drip, centre pivot
Increase in annual application
• Does not necessarily impact equipment costs
• Larger reservoir needed
• Higher fuel and labour costs
For existing irrigators, on-farm irrigation cost increases will be
proportionately smaller than irrigation need increases

20. W or s f …
k o ar
W or pl
k anned…
Modelling assumed unchanged practices - but there will be
autonomous adaptation even if not planned adaptation
• Earlier planting and harvest dates
• Change to better adapted varieties
• Less use of very light soils
• Move to different region – northwards and westwards
• GM technology

21. Sum m ar -t
y he
adapt i m es age
aton s
Water is already scarce
Climate change will make it even scarcer
Adaptation will be essential – preferably planned
Adaptation reinforces current trends - many adaptations
are “no regret” - they make sense
Beware of mal-adaptations - changes that climate
change render worthless

22. Adapt i – w hat
aton
ot s ar doi
her e ng
Building reservoirs
Starting to work together
forming ‘water abstractor groups’
Making better use of existing supplies