Using Risk as a Driving Parameter in Environmental Rehabilitation Design
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This presentation shows how Risk Based Decision Making was performed on a real project (which won an international call for bids), using Riskope's CDA/ESM project evaluation methodology.
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Using Risk as a Driving Parameter in Environmental Rehabilitation Design
- 1. Using Risk as a Driving Parameter in the Design of the Environmental Rehabilitaton of an Asbestos Mine Dump F. & C. Oboni Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 1 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 2. Width 800 m Height 200 – 250 m Estimated Volume 5060 Mm3 Slope 35 – 45 degrees Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 2 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 3. Before...and after first phase. It looks simple... Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 3 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 4. ... but it is not! Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 4 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 5. At each design step risk has been integrated in the decision making process: By using the CDA/ESM (Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Bla bla Bla Bla Bla Bla Safety Margin) developed by Riskope International with CDA/ESM alternatives can be compared all along their life cycle, from cradle to grave Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 5 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 6. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 6 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 7. CDA/ESM includes a simplified risk analysis for each phase characterising the life of a project. Two code compliant alternatives can feature completely different risk profiles: EXAMPLE: using an aerial tramway to haul waste material, rather than trucks. It is important to recognize that alternatives' risks may have very different time frames, which is taken into account by CDA/ESM Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 7 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 8. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 8 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 9. CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to a number of international projects and is taught in specific courses by Riskope International. Thanks to CDA/ESM cimparing alternatives becomes: Clear and concrete, Trasparent Riproductible Justifiable Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 9 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 10. When deploying CDA/ESM risk scenarios are expressed numerically and graphically. For each scenario the following has to be defined: Max estimated Probability of event Max estimated cost of event Min estimated Probability of event Min estimated cost of event Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 10 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 11. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 11 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 12. Risk can be displayed in a ProbabilityCost plot as a “Risk Bubble” Probabilità Likelihood 1.00 1/10 per year 35,000$ 200$ 1/100 per year 0.00 Conseguenza Consequence Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 12 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 13. It is intuitively easy to add to the Risk Bubble reputational/public opinion damages, converted in monetary values, see the red line. Probabilità Likelihood 1.00 1/10 per year 35,000$ 200$ 1/100 per year 0.00 Conseguenza Consequence Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 13 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 14. This is an example of a Risk Analysis result. NB: The Risk Bubbles are displayed only with their centers or to vertical segments to display their uncertainty 1 1/10 Probability 1/100 1/1000 ..... 1 in a Million Consequence in MUS$ Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 14 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 15. Can you see the difference? The left image shows risks (14). Right image displays the tolerability on top of risks. The right plot clearly indicates that only 7 out of the 14 are intolerable; of those CDA/ESM will show that actually only 3 are truly significant! This outcome generates huge economic returns Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 15 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 16. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 16 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 17. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 17 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 18. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 18 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
- 19. Conclusions Thanks to specific methodologies it is possible to: Select the riskiest scenarios and mitigate them at preliminary design level already, Draw attention of all stakeholders to rational priorities, Define a mitigation masterplan of a project all along its life. This will enable to generate more rational and sustainable projects. Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com 19 ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9