Daily Forex News March 6th 2013

Daily Forex News March 6th 2013
FCTOFX: The US Dollar weakened against commodity currencies and
softened a bit against European majors as the DOW Jones jumped to close at
record high of 14,253. Investor sentiment was solid on expectation that the
Fed will continue its easing efforts after recent speeches by Fed chairman
Ben Bernanke and vice chairman Yellen. But the overall impact of risk
sentiments on the currency markets was rather muted, as it has been lately.
The Euro is stuck in a tight range above 1.3 against the dollar for the moment
and even the sterling was limited well below a near term resistance at 1.5221
against the dollar. Also, USD/CAD is holding well above the 1.0216 minor
support and there is no sign of a steeper selloff yet. Japanese Yen crosses
were also clearly stuck in range.

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Recently, both Bernanke and Yellen have sounded dovish and defended the
Fed's open-ended asset purchase program. Bernanke stated that the Fed
would 'continue purchases until it observes a substantial improvement in the
outlook for the labor market'. Yellen also said that she still saw the balance
of risks "calling for highly accommodative monetary policy to support a
stronger recovery and more rapid growth in employment." Last week,
Chicago Fed Evans warned of the danger of removing accommodation
prematurely. Though, Richmond Fed Lacker warned yesterday that small
mistakes in timing the Fed's exit could have "large consequences". After all,
Bernanke has emphasized he has backing from the majority of Fed policy
makers on continuing the stimulus.


Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are the strongest performers this
week so far. The Aussie was supported by solid economic data this week.
Australia Gross Domestic Product grew 0.6% in Q4, inline with expectation.
Overall growth in 2012 was at 3.6%, the strongest pace in fives years since
2007. Treasurer Swan hailed that "Australia's around-trend growth rate over
the year is more than four times the The Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development average." And he said that the country has
managed to "achieve solid growth in the December quarter at a time when
around half of all advanced economies contracted, including five major
advanced economies." However, some economists pointed out that the
details of the GDP report were weak as domestic demand remains below
trend and the growth was too heavily dependent on exports.


At his last Government Work Report, the Chinese Premier unveiled that the
government retained its GDP growth target of 7.5% but reduced the
consumer price index target to 3.5% from 4% last year. This was compared
with the People's Bank of China's Deputy Governor's CPI forecast of 3% in
2013. The report showed optimism over the country's economic outlook.
While the economic recovery after the global financial crisis remained "full of
uncertainty and not yet on a stable footing", the "considerably increased
capacity" in the manufacturing sector, "significantly improved"
infrastructure, high savings rates and large workforce act as "favorable
conditions and positive factors" to sustain economic developments.


Looking ahead the Bank of Canada will be a main focus today as markets are
expecting the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 1%. The Bank of
Canada has noted that the need for a rate hike is "less imminent" in the last
statements. But based on recent economic data and outlook, the central
bank could even totally drop the tightening bias. And if that happens, we
could seen another round of rallying in USD/CAD. Other data to be watched
include Eurozone GDP revision, US ADP employment, factory orders and the
Fed's Beige book report.


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Daily Forex News March 6th 2013

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