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Connecting Northern Tanzania
     A socio-economic comparison of the
alternative routes for a highway from Arusha
                  to Musoma




             by Frankfurt Zoological Society
            J. Grant C. Hopcraft (May, 2011)
Tanzania’s Road Network & New Alternative Routes
Three Alternative Routes
Three Alternative Routes
Three Alternative Routes
Elevation and Distance: North Route
Elevation and Distance: North Route

                              Total distance: 548 km

                               Elevation change: 1537 m
Elevation and Distance: Eyasi Route
Elevation and Distance: Eyasi Route

                               Total distance: 628 km

                               Elevation change: 674 m
Elevation and Distance: Mbulu Route
Elevation and Distance: Mbulu Route

                              Total distance: 692 km

                              Elevation change: 1099 m
Elevation and Distance: Summary
Elevation and Distance: Summary
                                           • shortest distance

                                           • greatest elevation
                         1537 m   548 km   gain

                                           • too steep for oil /
                                           gas pipelines or
                                           railways




                         674 m    628 km   • least elevation
                                           gain




                                           • longest distance
                         1099 m   692 km
Current Conditions
Current Conditions              North Route is shortest, but requires the
                                most amount of new pavement (i.e. most
                                              expensive)


  Proposed    Total Km      Km             Km            Km         Km of new 
    Route                Currently     Currently     Currently      pavement 
                          Paved       All‐Seasonal    Seasonal       required
                                         Murum      Tracks or No 
                                                        Road
 North 
 Route        547.8       119.5         219.7         208.6          428.2
 South 
 Eyasi        628.3       296.0          83.1         249.3          332.4
 South 
 Mbulu        691.5       288.5         132.2         270.8          402.9
Estimated Travel Times
Estimated Travel Times                North Route is shorter distance, but would
                                                be longer travel time




                          Total Km inside       Total Km outside      Total 
 Proposed 
             Total Km   Protected Areas (50    Protected Areas (80    Travel 
   Route
                        km/hr speed limit)     km/hr speed limit)      Time


  North                                                                7.9 
  Route      547.8            151.1                  396.6
                                                                      hours
  South                                                                7.8 
  Eyasi      628.3              0                    628.3
                                                                      hours
  South                                                                8.6 
  Mbulu      691.5              0                    691.5
                                                                      hours
Human Density
Human Density




                • fewest number of
                people

                • connects very few
                high human density
                areas (ie red bars)
Voter Population
Voter Population




                   • fewest number of
                   voters
Economic Activity
Economic Activity




                    • fewest number of
                    economically active
                    people

                    • connects the least
                    number of economic
                    hubs (red bars)
Total Number of Unemployed
Total Number of Unemployed




                             • largest unemployment
                             in the south

                             • number of unemployed
                             people on South Mbulu
                             route is almost equal to
                             total number of people on
                             North route
School Aged Children (5-19 years old)
School Aged Children (5-19 years old)




                                        • greatest number of
                                        school aged children in
                                        the south

                                        • many centres with
                                        large numbers of
                                        school aged children
                                        (red bars)
Access to Agriculture
Access to Agriculture
                                          • twice as much agriculture / km2

                                          • mainly herbaceous crops sold at
                                          local markets (and some cash crops)
  Area under agriculture per km of road




                                          50
                                          45                                      Tree / Shrub Crops
                                          40                                      Herbaceous Crops

                                          35
                                          30
                                          25
                                          20
                                          15
                                          10
                                           5
                                           0
                                                 South Mbulu        South Eyasi   North Route
Livestock Density
Livestock Density
                                                    • three times as many livestock than
                                                    northern route



                                                   70000
  Total number of Livestock within 20km of route




                                                   60000


                                                   50000


                                                   40000


                                                   30000


                                                   20000


                                                   10000


                                                      0
                                                             South Mbulu          South Eyasi   North Route
Future Agriculture: Rainfall
Future Agriculture: Rainfall

          • highest annual rainfall
Future Agriculture: Soil Quality
Future Agriculture: Soil Quality
           • high average soil fertility
           but low rainfall
Biodiversity & Conservation Issues
Wildebeest Migration: Wet Season
Wildebeest Migration: Wet to Dry Transition
Wildebeest Migration: Dry Season
Threatened Species: Rhino and Wild dog
Letter from Tanzania’s Ministry of Natural
    Resources and Tourism (22, June 2011)
                      1) The proposed road will not dissect the
                     Serengeti National Park


                       2) TANAPA will maintain jurisdiction of all
                     roads in the Serengeti for tourism and
                     administration only (not commercial traffic)



                       3) New paved roads to address the socio-
                     economic needs of rural communities will not
                     be adjacent to the park (122 km of
                     ecologically sensitive area between Loliondo
                     and Mugumu will be left)

                       4) The Government of Tanzania is
                     considering the construction of a route south
                     of the park (many donors including the
                     World Bank and the German Government
                     have already offered support)
Sources of Data


 Elevation: NASA SRTM Digital Elevation Model

 Human demography: Tanzania Bureau of Statistics

 Livestock: FAO Gridded Livestock of the World 2007

 Agriculture, Crops & Rainfall: FAO AfriCover

 Soil: World Harmonized Soil Data base

 Maps: Frankfurt Zoological Society and Tanzania National Parks
THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
          MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND TOURISM

Telegrams: "MALIASILI"                                              P.O. Box 9372
DAR ES SALAAM                                                      DAR ES SALAAM
Telephone: 255 22 21 11063
Fax: 255 22 2123158
On reply please quote:

Ref. NO. EA.297?593/01/20                                             22"d June 201 1
Director,
World Heritage Centre,
7, Place de Fontenoy
75352 Paris 07 SP,
FRANCE

  Re: STATE OF CONSERVATION OF SERENGETI NATIONAL PARK

The United Republic of Tanzania is honored to take this opportunity to clarify on the proposed
tarmac road in northern Tanzania.

The proposed road will be constructed in two sections:
 (i) The eastern stretch of 214 km tarmac road which will be constructed from Mto wa Mbu to
       Loliondo,
 (ii) The western stretch tarmac road that will be constructed from Makutano-Natta-Mugumu, a
distance of 117 km. The stretch of 12 km from Mugumu to the Serengeti National Park western
border plus a corresponding stretch of 57.6 km from Loliondo to Serengeti National Park
eastern border will not be tannac. The 53 km section traversing Serengeti National Park will
remain gravel road and continue to be managed by TANAPA mainly for tourism and
 administrative purposes as it is currently.

In view of this intended plan of constsuction, the State Party confirms that the proposed road will
not dissect the Serengeti National Park and therefore will not affect the migration and
conservation values of the Property. The ongoing ESIA will take into consideration these
developments and will be submitted to WHC accordingly.

This decision has been reached in order to address the increasing socio-economic needs of the
rural communities in Northern Tanzania while safeguarding the Outstanding Universal Value
(OUV) of Serengeti National Park. The Government of United Republic of Tanzania is also
seriously considering the constsuction of a road from Mugumu to Arusha running south of
Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Serengeti National Park.




                              EZEKIEL MAIGE
               MINISTER FOR NATURAL RESOURCES AND TOURISM

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FZS presentation_ConnectingNorthernTanzania_Evaluation_of_alternative_routes

  • 1. Connecting Northern Tanzania A socio-economic comparison of the alternative routes for a highway from Arusha to Musoma by Frankfurt Zoological Society J. Grant C. Hopcraft (May, 2011)
  • 2. Tanzania’s Road Network & New Alternative Routes
  • 7. Elevation and Distance: North Route Total distance: 548 km Elevation change: 1537 m
  • 9. Elevation and Distance: Eyasi Route Total distance: 628 km Elevation change: 674 m
  • 10. Elevation and Distance: Mbulu Route
  • 11. Elevation and Distance: Mbulu Route Total distance: 692 km Elevation change: 1099 m
  • 13. Elevation and Distance: Summary • shortest distance • greatest elevation 1537 m 548 km gain • too steep for oil / gas pipelines or railways 674 m 628 km • least elevation gain • longest distance 1099 m 692 km
  • 15. Current Conditions North Route is shortest, but requires the most amount of new pavement (i.e. most expensive) Proposed  Total Km Km  Km  Km  Km of new  Route Currently  Currently  Currently  pavement  Paved All‐Seasonal  Seasonal  required Murum Tracks or No  Road North  Route 547.8 119.5 219.7 208.6 428.2 South  Eyasi 628.3 296.0 83.1 249.3 332.4 South  Mbulu 691.5 288.5 132.2 270.8 402.9
  • 17. Estimated Travel Times North Route is shorter distance, but would be longer travel time Total Km inside  Total Km outside  Total  Proposed  Total Km Protected Areas (50  Protected Areas (80  Travel  Route km/hr speed limit)  km/hr speed limit) Time North  7.9  Route 547.8 151.1 396.6 hours South  7.8  Eyasi 628.3 0 628.3 hours South  8.6  Mbulu 691.5 0 691.5 hours
  • 19. Human Density • fewest number of people • connects very few high human density areas (ie red bars)
  • 21. Voter Population • fewest number of voters
  • 23. Economic Activity • fewest number of economically active people • connects the least number of economic hubs (red bars)
  • 24. Total Number of Unemployed
  • 25. Total Number of Unemployed • largest unemployment in the south • number of unemployed people on South Mbulu route is almost equal to total number of people on North route
  • 26. School Aged Children (5-19 years old)
  • 27. School Aged Children (5-19 years old) • greatest number of school aged children in the south • many centres with large numbers of school aged children (red bars)
  • 29. Access to Agriculture • twice as much agriculture / km2 • mainly herbaceous crops sold at local markets (and some cash crops) Area under agriculture per km of road 50 45 Tree / Shrub Crops 40 Herbaceous Crops 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 South Mbulu South Eyasi North Route
  • 31. Livestock Density • three times as many livestock than northern route 70000 Total number of Livestock within 20km of route 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 South Mbulu South Eyasi North Route
  • 33. Future Agriculture: Rainfall • highest annual rainfall
  • 35. Future Agriculture: Soil Quality • high average soil fertility but low rainfall
  • 38. Wildebeest Migration: Wet to Dry Transition
  • 41. Letter from Tanzania’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (22, June 2011) 1) The proposed road will not dissect the Serengeti National Park 2) TANAPA will maintain jurisdiction of all roads in the Serengeti for tourism and administration only (not commercial traffic) 3) New paved roads to address the socio- economic needs of rural communities will not be adjacent to the park (122 km of ecologically sensitive area between Loliondo and Mugumu will be left) 4) The Government of Tanzania is considering the construction of a route south of the park (many donors including the World Bank and the German Government have already offered support)
  • 42. Sources of Data Elevation: NASA SRTM Digital Elevation Model Human demography: Tanzania Bureau of Statistics Livestock: FAO Gridded Livestock of the World 2007 Agriculture, Crops & Rainfall: FAO AfriCover Soil: World Harmonized Soil Data base Maps: Frankfurt Zoological Society and Tanzania National Parks
  • 43. THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND TOURISM Telegrams: "MALIASILI" P.O. Box 9372 DAR ES SALAAM DAR ES SALAAM Telephone: 255 22 21 11063 Fax: 255 22 2123158 On reply please quote: Ref. NO. EA.297?593/01/20 22"d June 201 1 Director, World Heritage Centre, 7, Place de Fontenoy 75352 Paris 07 SP, FRANCE Re: STATE OF CONSERVATION OF SERENGETI NATIONAL PARK The United Republic of Tanzania is honored to take this opportunity to clarify on the proposed tarmac road in northern Tanzania. The proposed road will be constructed in two sections: (i) The eastern stretch of 214 km tarmac road which will be constructed from Mto wa Mbu to Loliondo, (ii) The western stretch tarmac road that will be constructed from Makutano-Natta-Mugumu, a distance of 117 km. The stretch of 12 km from Mugumu to the Serengeti National Park western border plus a corresponding stretch of 57.6 km from Loliondo to Serengeti National Park eastern border will not be tannac. The 53 km section traversing Serengeti National Park will remain gravel road and continue to be managed by TANAPA mainly for tourism and administrative purposes as it is currently. In view of this intended plan of constsuction, the State Party confirms that the proposed road will not dissect the Serengeti National Park and therefore will not affect the migration and conservation values of the Property. The ongoing ESIA will take into consideration these developments and will be submitted to WHC accordingly. This decision has been reached in order to address the increasing socio-economic needs of the rural communities in Northern Tanzania while safeguarding the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of Serengeti National Park. The Government of United Republic of Tanzania is also seriously considering the constsuction of a road from Mugumu to Arusha running south of Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Serengeti National Park. EZEKIEL MAIGE MINISTER FOR NATURAL RESOURCES AND TOURISM