Danube floodrisk ii

About the Guidelines for Hazard Mapping
Riccardo Rigon, Silvia Franceschi, Giuseppina Monacelli, Giuseppe Formetta

Segantini - Mezzogiorno sulle Alpi

Danube FloodRisk Project,
Trento, September 26, 2012

Monday, October 1, 12

Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 26 September 2012

Credits of This Research

Besides, being completed under the Danube Flood Risk EU Project

is based on studies developed during the IRASMOS EU project and
during a conjoint work with the “Servizio Bacini Montani” of the
Autonomous Province of Trento

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Credits for these Slides

Most of the slides picture were produced during pilot studies by:

Hydrologis - ing. Silvia Franceschi, dr. ing. Andrea Antonello
ingTerritorio - ing Christian Tiso and dott. geol. Alessandro Sperandio
Mountainain-eering - dr. ing Silvia Simoni, ing. Fabrizio Zanotti, dr. ing.
Matteo Dall’Amico

Research used is much derived from common work with dr. ing Silvia Simoni
and dr. ing. Cristiano Lanni

who I thanks and acknowledge all.

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This presentation

the last year presentation, and related material can be found at:

http://abouthydrology. blogspot.com

search the blog for landslide triggering

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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011

Low

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Preliminary Analisys

Low

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High Low
Potential Risk

In the average

Low

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High Low
Potential Risk

In the average

Further Assessment
considering uncertainties
High

Low

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Low

Indicative analysis

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High Medium-Low Low

Detailed analysis Simplified analysis

Geological Analysis Geological Analysis

Hydrological analysis Hydrological analysis Indicative analysis

Simplified Hydraulic
Hydraulic analysis analysis

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High Medium-Low Low

Detailed analysis Simplified analysis

Geological Analysis Geological Analysis

Hydrological analysis Hydrological analysis Indicative analysis

Simplified Hydraulic
Hydraulic analysis analysis

Comparison with other hazard maps

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Steps in this
presentation

Preliminary Analysis

Geology, Simplified Hydrology
and (no) Hydraulics

Hazard Maps

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Tools behind

Field Survey, Data
Collection, Maps analysis

Geological techniques , Hydrological
models, Hydraulic models

GIS tools

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Summary of the Procedure


I. Geomorfological description of the Basin

II. Data Review

III. Historic Data Collection

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Summary of the Procedure

Analysis

I. Geological Analysis (orthophotos, existing cartography, field survey,

geomorphological analysis, geophysical analysis, geotechnical analysis)

II. Estimation of available sediment

III. Hydrological analysis and models’ choice

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La caccia al pericolo

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Basin Classification
Rio Corda

•Basin Area: 13.4 km2

•Min elevation: 924 m
•Max Elevation: 2890 m

•Mean slope ....

•Two networks, torrents

Courtesy of Mountain-eering
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Cismon - Canali

Courtesy of Hydrologis 13
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Cismon - Canali

WorldWind4JGrass -
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Data Inventory
Cismon - DEM eith the main hydrography

I would suggest in a map like this to indicate
also some relevant points as peaks, etc.
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Data Inventory
Canali - Idrografia P.A.T

Hydrography can be improved by using
Strahler ordering
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Data Inventory
Orhophoto

By itself the ortophoto
is not very
informative if other
information is not
superimposed

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Data Inventory
Technical Map

rio Corda

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Data Inventory
Val di Casa - Land Cover

From PAT 2003.
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This is Land Cover

grass, in this case
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This is land use

grazing, in this case
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Data Inventory
Rio Corda - Geological Maps

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Data Inventory
Summary

DTM
Hydrography
Orthophoto

Technical Maps Land Cover- Land Use
Carta
Geological Maps

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Data Inventory
Historical data

This landslide was referred in
March 2003 from Servizio di
Sistemazione Montana.
The landslide involves a surface
of 15500 m2 and cover around
100m of elevation, from the
channel bed to ca. 1653 m a.s.l.

Franceschini, 2003 24
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Data Inventory
Historical data

The depth of the movable
sediment has been
estimated to be around 10 m.
The material of the landslide
is made by clasts and
boulder of sand matrix
which often turn into
limestone.

Franceschini, 2003 25
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Going a little Deeper

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Data Inventory
Missing data a little of survey can help. This is Val di Casa

Past Events:

1. Flooding 1906
(missing source)

2. looding1987
(missinf source)

In both the case the
sediment that arrived
to Carderzone was
between 30.000 and
40.000 cubic meters

This levee was realized in 1908 after the flood of 1906
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Geological Analysis Always cite the source !

Sinthesis- Val di Casa

In Val di Casa catchments are present five main lithological typologies: 1. Granite,
granodiorite and tonalite Adamello 2. Mica schists, phyllites and paragneiss 3. lakes and
rivers; 4. moraines coarse 5. detritus deposits with gravel prevalent;

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Geological Analysis
Sinthesis- Val di Casa

Identification of the quaternary cover, in the low part of the basin with the use of
orthophoto relative to different years: from left to right 2006, 2000, superposition
of geology to the 2006 ortophoto.

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Geological Analysis
Di sintesi - Val di Casa

Same as previous slide for
the upper part of the basin:
2000, 2006 ortophotos,
superimposition of geology
tho 2006 orthophoto

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Geological Analysis
Lidar Data - Val di Casa

Using LIDAR maps a good geologist is able to give an estimate of quaternary covers.

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Geological Analysis
Can be made a little more specific with a little of field survey - Case Cismon

Cismon catchment is composed by
two main geostructural domains:
• the dolomitic domain (oriental):
which is the Pale i S. Martino Area
• the metamorphic domain
(western): the area of mount
Tognola.
The river network developed close
to the fault line.

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Geological Analysis

Litostratigraphy of Cismon
torrent.

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Geological Analysis

Quaternary Formations 34
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Geological Analysis

Landsliding: on the left the landslide at Pian delle Sfelde and at
the right the deep landslide of Mount Tognola

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Geological Analysis
in the field

GPS mapping (in yellow) of the first surveys on the basin

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Geological Analysis
in the field

Three dimensional view of the
survey with georeferencing of
the photos.

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Geological Analysis
in the field

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Geological survey
geophysics - rio Corda

Objective:

Give information about:

• soil depth in some points (gray
rectangles);
• water table positions and main
directions of subsurface flows;
• stratigraphy and lithology.

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Geological survey

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Geological survey

Where to do the survey

• area close to the head water and
where there were landslides;
• springs (light blue rectangles);
• confluences of channels.

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Geological survey

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Geological Survey
Geomechanics - rio Corda

Objectives

We want to know:
• soil texture i.e. the fraction of sand, silt
and clay;
• the particle size of sediment in the bed of
the torrents ;
• strength parameters of soils (as proven in
the lab);
• hydrological parameters in situ hydraulci
conductivity, residual water content, and
porosity.

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Geological Survey

Where (red circles)

• slopes prone to instabilities from
qualitative indications: steep, concave, with
high topographic index;
• areas with quaternary cover not very
much consolidated;
• torrents bed in more steep areas.

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Geological Survey

Where

•Point 1 is localized on the bed of Poia
torrent, close to a slit dam,

•Point 2 is on the landslide of june 2008;

•Point 3 and 4 are close to a landslide
deposit, close to a detachment niche.

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Geological Analysis
Geomorphology - Canali

Slopes

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Geological Analysis
Geomorphology - Canali

Statistics

Sintesys:
mean slope: 34°
max slope: 87°
min slope: 0°

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Geological Analysis
Geomorphology - Val di Case
Network delineation

Networks from DEM in red and ufficial network from P.A.T. (blue)

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Geological Analysis
Geomorphology - Val di Casa

Subnetworks
From the resuts of the previous analsys follow the decision to consider some basins which are those
from which the sediment delivery is assumed to mainly come.

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Now the Choice of models

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Two directions
Subsurface waters - Surface waters

Sediment is generated Sediment is found
by landslides that in the
subsequently turn into bed of torrents
debris flow and areas close by

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Two directions

Sediment is generated Sediment is found
by landslides that in the
subsequently turn into bed of torrents
debris flow and areas close by

Subsurface water flow Rainfall-Runoff
model Modeling

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Two directions

Sediment is found
Sediment is generated in the
by landslides that bed of torrents
subsequently turn into and areas close by
debris flow and by hillslope
inputs

Subsurface water flow Rainfall-Runoff
model Modeling

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Use empirical laws
Subsurface waters

A prototype is

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There is a geotechnical model

c s z cos2 ⇥s w ⇤w cos2 ⇥s
FS = + tan ⌅c tan ⌅c
s z cos ⇥s sin ⇥s s z cos ⇥s sin ⇥s s z cos ⇥s sin ⇥s

where:

Symbol Name nickname Unit
FS Factor of Safety fos [/]
c⇥ cohesion chsn [M L2 T 2 ]
⌅c columbian friction angle cfa [/]
⇤w position of the water table surface pwts [L]
z depth of soil ds [L]
s soil/terrain density std [M L 1 T 2 ]
w density of liquid water dlw [M L 1 T 2 ]
⇥s slope of terrain surface sts [/]

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And a hydrological model
often assuming stationary hydrology

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Sediment availability
playing with simplified models

One idea is to use to make reasonable experiments models like SHALSTAB and
SINMAP (the method itself is not rigorous, but its exploration allows to frame the
quantities).
For instance assigning a rainfall with a certain duration and intensity (according to
Intensity-duration-frequency curves), Equation for stability can be inverted ... In the
hypothesis that short term rainfall do not destabilize the hillslopes:

⇥
T sin s ⇥w tan s c (1 + tan s ) 2
A/b ⇤ 1 +
q ⇥s tan ⇤c tan ⇤c ⇥s g · z

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where:

FS Factor of Safety fos [/]
c⇥ cohesion chsn [M L2 T 2 ]
⌅c columbian friction angle cfa [/]
⇤w position of the water table surface pwts [L]
z depth of soil ds [L]
s soil/terrain density std [M L 1 T 2 ]
w density of liquid water dlw [M L 1 T 2 ]
⇥s slope of terrain surface sts [/]

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⇥
T sin s ⇥w tan s c (1 + tan s ) 2
A/b ⇤ 1 +
q ⇥s tan ⇤c tan ⇤c ⇥s g · z

From which one can derive an estimate of

tan ⇤s f (ks , z, q, s , ⇥w , ⇥s )

a minimal value of the critical angle tan s

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and obtain maps like this one

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At this point using the reference value of the critical angle one can obtain those
point where the contributing area is unstable.

⇥
T sin ⇥s ⇤w tan ⇥s c (1 + tan ⇥s ) 2
A/b ⇤ 1 +
q ⇤s tan ⌅c (5, 24) tan ⌅c (5, 24) s · z

Where c (5, 24) indicates that the value has been obtained in “back analysis” with
precipitation of 24 hours of duration 24 hours and return period of 5 year.

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Analisi Geologica
Analisi del sedimento disponibile - rio Corda
Analisi di stabilità condotta con Shalstab per diversi tempi di ritorno. Sono riportati i dati relativi a
precipitazioni con un tempo di ritorno di 30 anni.

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Improving the method
Subsurface waters

The method can be improved under many aspects

•one can consider instead of a single value for a critical angle many values,
depending on lithology;

•one can consider different couples of rainfall-duration

•instead of considering SHALSTAB one can use QD-SLAM (es. Borga et al., 2002)
or CI-SLAM (Lanni et al., 2012) models that remove the hypothesis of stationarity

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Different choice of the geotechnical model

where:

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3
4

5
Different choice of the hydrological model
6

7
8
9

10 Figure 1. A flow chart depicting the coupled saturated/unsaturated hydrological model
11 developed in this study.
Lanni et al., 2012 63
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Improving the method
Subsurface waters

Lanni et al., 2012 64
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Summary
Subsurface waters

Rio
Corda

sx Rio
Corda
dx

soil
volume soil
volume

Return
period 1m 2m 1m 2m

30
years 4.02E+05 8.03E+05 4.66E+05 9.32E+05

100
years 4.13E+05 8.27E+05 4.77E+05 9.55E+05
200
years 4.20E+05 8.41E+05 4.87E+05 9.75E+05

This is an exemplificative table. The error can be very large but gives, at least, an order of magnitude

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Gological Analysis
Sediment available- Cismon

When the geological analysis gave soil depth, These can (must) be used in
the procedure.
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Geological Analysis
Sediment available- Val di Casa

The sediment availability can be given also for any subbasin:

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Geological Analysis
Sediment available- Val di Casa

Therefore:

The volumes of movable sediments for the Val di Casa basin. In this case the soil depth is
taken constant. But clearly a better estimation can be done. The volumes obtained are
consisten with the historical analysis.

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Can this sediment arrive to the river and being
transported downstream ?

We do not have at the moment rigorous analysis for assessing this.
However some empirical formula can help.

http://www.illustrationsource.com
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Sediment available
Cismon

On the left the areas which are thought to supply sediment to the network; on the
right: the same areas with depicted the soil depth.

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Sediment available
Cismon
This can be considered a zeroth-order estimation of the
possibility of the subsequent transport in channels estimated
with the good old method by Takahashi (1978).

C ( s / w 1)
tan ⇥s ⇤ tan ⇤c
h0 /n d + C ⇥ ( s / w 1) + 1
C Concentrazione in volume particelle sedimento cvps [/]
h0 tirante idrico superﬁciale tis [L]
n numero di strati di particelle movimentati nsp [/]
d granulometria del sedimento gs [L]

The result in the next page
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Sediment available
Cismon

According Takahashi (1978) the values of the ratio ho/nd that cause a debris
flows are between 0 e 1.33. For values less than 0 the debris is dry, and with slope
allowing a landslide is generated. According to the method the values of slopes
which generate debris flow are in between:

C ( s / w 1) C ( s/ w 1)
tan ⇤c ⇤ tan ⇥s ⇤ tan ⇤c
C ⇥ ( s / w 1) + 1 1.33 + C ⇥ ( s / w 1) + 1

For slopes less than the right limit, the transport is usually normal solid
transport (hyperconcentrated); for slopes larger than the left limit the movent
happens also in dry conditions, and therefore the sediment accumulate with
difficulty on the slopes.

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Sediment available
Cismon

The network classified
according to Takashi. In red the
channels where debris flow is
possible, in light blue the
channels where possibly
sediment transport is possible

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Sediment available
Cismon

The same as the
previous side but with
the sources of sediment
enlightened.

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Surface Hydrology

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Now the sediment is in the channels

We need the water to move it !

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Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

•There are many models that produce discharge at a catchment closure. As
soon as they are appropriately calibrated, many of them are good.

The problems arise when we do not have data to calibrate
them

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One important question is: how do we estimate the rainfall volumes that
transform into discharges (i.e. the effective rainfall) ?

There exists many methods. Some are better.
We cannot rely on methods introduced for agricultural
settings.

Obviously the choice of this method and its appropriateness affect the final
result.

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There are some issue related to the problem under analysis,
and some issue related to rainfall-runoff in general

This problem: one wants
discharges in several
point, for instance for
estimating sediment
transport in the channel
highlighted in blue

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So, the basin needs to be
appropriately subdivided
and the hydrology
appropriately estimated.
This is trivial indeed ...
if the model parameters
depends on spatial
knowledge, and can be
Uphill basin rescaled!

Interbasin

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I prefer those methods which use explicitly the knowledge of
geomorphology

Please keep also in mind that having liquid discharges are just one step of
the process that involve also sediment and the use of hydraulic models

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Hydrological Analysis
do it the PeakFlow way!

Peakflow:

•Assume saturation excess mechanism (and estimate the saturated areas with the
topografic index, e.g. Beven, 2001)

•Use the rescaled width function (Rinaldo et al., 1995, D’Odorico e Rigon,
2003) to obtain the surface and the subsurface hydrographs

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•Peakflow

•Allows to estimate the maximum discharges (and the peak time and the critical
duration of rainfall) generated by uniform precipitation with assigned return
period (using a power law type of IDF)

uDig implements it!

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Rescaled distances (Rinaldo et al., 1995)

Distances from the outlet (on the left) and rescaled (on the right).
Only 40% of the areas is actually colored according to the Beven
and Kirby’s (1979) topographic index. 84
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Histogram of areas that affects overland flow, assuming just 40% of area
saturated.

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Knows your parameters (e.g. D’Odorico and Rigon, 2003):

• The fraction of saturated area is a critical parameters with which the peak
discharge grows approximately linearly

•Velocity of water in channels and hillslope are some average in space (over the
basin) and time (during the hydrograph) of the real (local) velocity

•rescaled factor between channel flow velocity and overland flow in hillslope (and
the ratio between s channel flow and subsurface velocity)

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The question of solid discharges

We need now to invent a model for associating the solid discharges to the liquid
ones that we have obtained so far. We do not have ...

but we could envision how to do it:

•Built the total quantity of sediment available at distance say, x, to build the
sediment width function (normalized by the total volume)

•Assume that water and sediment in channel have the same velocity

•Built the sediment hydrograph 89
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Solid Discharges

•Assume that all the sediment movements trigger at the same instant

•The sediment width function (after transforming space into time) IS the
sediment hydrograph, and you add it to the water hydrograph for the final result.

Do it but with care!

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Hydraulics

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Solid Discharges

•Sediment concentration could be too high. In this case the sediment deposit.

It is clear that from the point you add sediment and water in input one should
use an effective hydraulic model to move it along channels.

This is actually another Job
and
we do not talk about here

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A minimal approach
to sediment delivery on alluvial fans

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A minimal approach
to sediment delivery on alluvial fans
Sheidl and Rickenmann (2009)

Will be explained in the next talk

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And in short the last steps

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At this point the probability of occurrence of the event (return
tensity value that has been assigned. For each cell of the doma
Squeeze it in return period) that, once inserted into the haz
values (intensity,
three colors
Intensity 8.2, give three hazard values (one for each return period).

High 9 8 7

6 5 4
Medium

Low
3 2 1

Figure 8.2 – Hazard class matrix.
High Medium Low Probability/Frequency
Low Medium High Return Period
The Hazard Class Matrix (Figure 8.2) proposes two different
level 6; yellow or blue for level 2) for two different statistical
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Squeeze it in three colors

Depending on the type of event the choice of the probability bins change.

PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS and CORRESPONDING RETURN PERIODS

Low probability Tr=200 years

Medium probability Tr=100 years

High probability Tr=30 years

Where observed events show an intensity that is reasonably
greater than that corresponding to a return period of 200 years,
then it may be worthwhile considering these observed situations
as a further class of extraordinary hazard (residual or potential).

8.1.4 Hazard Class Matrix 97
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At this

each corresponding to a different destructive potential for the event. Each of these classes is identi-
fied by means of a specific colour or symbol on the Hazard Map. Each intensity class is defined on
the basis of damage caused (or causable) by the event. In the table below (Table 8.2) the correlation
between intensity level and damage caused (or causable) is shown.
The Intensity can be categorised subjectively according to Levels of Damage
Table 8.2 – Description of intensity levels in relation to damage caused

Intensity Level of damage

High Loss of human life and destruction and/or permanent damage of structures and infra-
structure (hardly ever reversible)

Medium Serious damage to structures and infrastructure (without destruction), injuries to people
that are rarely fatal
Low Minor damage to structures and infrastructure with temporary outages of their services,
no injuries to people

Table 8.3 presents the threshold values prescribed for torrential phenomena by the Provincial Resol-
ution of the Province of Trento, which not only considers the physical quantities of velocity and
depth of the flow, but also the thickness of depositions and depth of scouring.
98
If, in applying Table 8.3, there are various scenarios with different hazards and equal probability,
then the least favourable scenario is considered.
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Or more objectively according to the values of the dynamical parameters involved

Velocity of flow Thickness of de-
Intensity of the Depth of the flow outside the water- position outside Depth of scouring
torrential phe- course the watercourse
nomenon h [m] d[m]
u [m/s] M [m]

High h>1 or u>1 or M>1 d>2

Medium 0.5 < h ≤ 1 or 0.5 <u ≤1 or 0.5 < M ≤ 1 0.5 < d < 2

Low h ≤ 0.5 or u ≤ 0.5 or M ≤ 0.5 d < 0.5

From P.A.T. DGP 2759 (22/12/2006)
8.1.3 Probability thresholds
Linked to the intensity threshold, the probability threshold indicates the probability of occurrence of 99
an event. The probability of a certain event occurring is evaluated on the basis of a time series of
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Table 8.5 – Colours and filles to be assigned to each hazard class on the Hazard Map.

Hazard Symbol Fill

Ordinary classes high H4 red
medium H3 blue
low H2 yellow
negligible H1 white
residual HR
Extraordinary classes
potential HP grey

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residual HR
Extraordinary classes
potential HP grey


Figure 8.3 – Example of Hazard Map that can be drafted with the methods proposed in these Guidelines.
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8.1.5 Final Assessments
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The Hazard Map resulting from the intensities and probabilities of occurrence must undergo some


Poste Italiane Spa - Spedizione in Abbonamento Postale 70% NE/TN - anno IV - numero 7 - marzo 2012 - Ä 10,00
SentieriUrbani
LA RIVISTA DELLA SEZIONE TRENTINO
DELL’ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI URBANISTICA

Issn: 2036-3109

In questo numero

Urbanistica
e rischio
idrogeologico
Urbanistica e rischio idrogeologico

sezionetrentino.inu@gmail.com 102
Rigon et Al.

Thank you for your attention

Read the Guidelines and the Papers for details



Bibliografia

•Beven, K J and Kirkby, M J. 1979, A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology
Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24(1),43-69

•Beven, K, Rainfall-runoff modelling: the primer, Wiley, 2001
•Borga, M., G. Dalla Fontana, F. Cazorzi, Analysis of topographic and climatic control on rainfall-triggered
shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index, Jour. Hydrol., 268, 56-71, 2002

•D’Odorico, P. and R. Rigon, Hillslope and channels contribution to the hydrologic response, Water Resour
Res, 39(5) , 1-9, 2003

•Lanni, C.; McDonnell, J. J.; Rigon, R., On the relative role of upslope and downslope topography for
describing water flow path and storage dynamics: a theoretical analysis, Hydrological Processes Volume: 25
Issue: 25 Pages: 3909-3923, DEC 15 2011, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8263

•Lanni C., J. McDonnell JJ, Hopp L., Rigon R., "Simulated effect of soil depth and bedrock topography on near-
surface hydrologic response and slope stability" in EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, v. 2012,
(In press). - URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.3267/abstract . - DOI: 10.1002/esp.3267

•Lanni C., Borga M., Rigon R., and Tarolli P., Modelling catchment-scale shallow landslide occurrence by
means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 4101-4134,
www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci- discuss.net/9/4101/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-4101-2012, (in press at HESS)

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Bibliografia
•Montgomery, DR and Dietrich, WE (1994), A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow
landsliding , Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 1153-1172. 1994.

•R. Rigon - Basic Notations, Un Real Books di Idrologia, DICA, Università di Trento, 2009
•Rinaldo A., G. K. Vogel, R., Rigon and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Can one gauge the shape of a basin?, Water
Resources Research, (31)4, 1119-1127, 1995

•Sheidl, C and Rickenmann, D., (2009) Empirical prediction of debris-flow mobility and deposition on fans,
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Volume 35, Issue 2, pages 157–173, February 2010

105
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End of Appendix


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