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The rational behind GEOtop:
    through its historical
development and applications
                     R. Rigon
 Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale -
                     CUDAM
                  Università di Trento
Four or Five problems we wanted to
           investigate
Rainfall–Runoff spatial patterns

    Problem : We cannot currently predict the spatial pattern
       of watershed response to precipitation and cannot
       quantitatively describe the surface and subsurface
     contributions to streamflow with enough accuracy and
             consistency to be operationally useful.

       Critical issues: Watershed runoff and streamflow are
      affected by heterogeneity in soil hydraulic properties,
       landscape structural properties, soil moisture profile,
      surface–subsurface interaction, interception by plants,
                   snowpack, and storm properties.



(Committee of hydrological Sciences NRC, 2003)
Snow mantle evolution and ablation
Problem: We would like to predict the spatial pattern of
 snow cover, its volumes and its effects on runoff with
 enough accuracy and consistency to be operationally
                        useful.

 Critical Issue: Also in this case we know enough of the
snow physics “in a point” but we do not have many tools
     to understand the snow cover effects on larger,
                     catchment scales.

           Related problem: snow avalanches
Soil freezing and permafrost
Problem: We would like to predict the spatial pattern of
soil temperatures even in complex terrain and in presence
                   of phase transitions

Critical Issue: Soil freezing introduces high non linearities
                     at low temperatures.

            Related problem: snow avalanches
Landslide and debris flow initiation
 Problem: We cannot currently predict, the triggering of
shallow landslides which eventually turns into a debris or a
                         mudflow.

  Critical Issue: Initial and boundary conditions. Landslide
initiation is affected by heterogeneity in soil hydraulic and
      geotechnical properties, landscape structural and
    geological properties, soil moisture profile, surface–
                    subsurface interactions.
We did not forget Ecohydrology ...
  but we will not discuss it here
Problem: We wouldlike to better understand the interactions
           between soils, hydrology and plants.

 Critical Issues: the biological system are highly non linear.
    The basic physiological laws are not really known (or
              hydrologist ignore many of them)
Committee of hydrological Sciences NRC, 2003:

 “Although our understanding of individual processes is
improving, the integration of that body of knowledge in
  spatially distributed predictive models has not been
               approached systematically”.
This talk is not about new equations or new paradigms: is
  mostly abot consistency of the modeling approach. It
    show a tool we use to lear about the hydrological
               processes at the small scales.
A small tribute to Stephan Gruber




We present here the evolution of the GEOTOP models and
                 discuss their limitation
The GEOtop Project
GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997)




Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997)



                                        GIUH +
                                    Kinematic wave+
                                     Bucket model



Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997)


      Radiation Physics
      Penman-Monteith


                                        GIUH +
                                    Kinematic wave+
              +



                                     Bucket model



Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
GEOtop 0.5 (1997)
                     P
                                 Qsup


                                                        ∂Qsup        ∂Qsup
                                                              + c(x)       = c(x) qL
                     I                                   ∂t           ∂s
                                                                           c ∝ y(x)m
                                 Qsub
                                                                       Qsub = T ∇z b


                         Z            Z
                                                   x W (x, τ)        x − u(t − τ)2
                             t            L
               Qc(t) =                                         exp −
                                 dτ           dx
                                                                      4DL(t − τ)
                                                   4πDL(t − τ)
                         0            o




Eagleson, 1971; Beven and Kirkby, 1979; Rodriguez-Iturbe and Valdes, 1979;
Rinaldo et al., 1991
GEOtop 0.5 (1997)

                  ET       Rn


                                                    Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa
                                               ET =
                                                        1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra

                                    Rn = [sh R ↓SW       + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) +
                                                     P
                                                              V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4




                       G


Brutsaert, 1975; Iqbal, 1983; Garrat, 1992, Enthekabi, 1997 and many others
GEOtop 0.5 (1997)

                  ET       Rn


                                                    Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa
                                               ET =
                                                        1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra

                                    Rn = [sh R ↓SW       + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) +
                                                     P
                                                              V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4




                       G


Brutsaert, 1975; Iqbal, 1983; Garrat, 1992, Enthekabi, 1997 and many others
Calculating ET in highly complex terrain needs a proper
treatment of radiation physics (including the effect of the
 vie angle and the shadowing). Below you see how much
    this is a limit for radiation to arrive to the surface.
GEOtop 0.5 (1997)

ET       Rn

                                   Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa
                              ET =
                                       1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra

                   Rn = [sh R ↓SW       + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) +
                                    P
                                             V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4




     G
Albedo is a key factor too. It can be easily detected from
 Earth Observation (EO) products and simple modelling of
the canopy evolution during the seasons (actually still not
                   included in GEOTOP)
GEOtop 0.5 Real ET




After Feddes et al, 1988
Real ET is obtained cutting the potential ET in dependence
  of water availability. In complex terrain water tend to
    accumulate in lowland concave - convergent sites.

Many large scale hydrological models pretends to give ET
          estimation by neglecting this fact ;-)
GEOtop 0.5 worked well for flood predictions and weekly
 ET (after a proper parameter calibration). It also showed
some dynamics on the soil moisture storage (dS/dt = 0 in
  some models!) and redistribution at catchment scale,
                       HOWEVER ....

 It could not describe properly the vertical distribution of
soil moisture in soils (essential to landslide forecasting and
  emissivity estimations). Moreover, using air T for soil T
                 (Ts) was a huge limitation.
GEOtop 0.75 (2000)



                   Radiation Physics
  Energy budget


                                           GIUH +
    integration


                                       Kinematic wave+
                                        Bucket model



Code integrations by Giacomo Bertoldi
GEOtop 0.75 is conceived to integrate the full energy
balance. As a consequence Ts becomes a variable of the
model (this obviuosly complicates GEOtop) but increases
at the same the possibility to check its behavior (Ts or its
radiative effect is a measurable quantity): we add
complexity but at the same time we add observables. Ts is
strongly affected by water content.
GEOtop 0.75 Energy Balance (2000)

         Rn                          Qp
                           ET
                  H

                        dE/dt



                                 Qm
                  G

      dE      dTs
         = Cp     = Rn − H − ET + Q p − G − Qm
      dt      dt
                        H = ρ c pCH u (T s − Ta)
                                    ˆ

              ET = λρ Ce u (q∗(Ta) − q∗(Ta) Ua)
                         ˆ
GEOtop 0.75 (2000): Turbulent fluxes
                              appear!

                           Ts>Ta

                       CH, CE ↑


                                          CH, CE ↓
                                             Ts<Ta




                        Aerodynamic roughness length




Similarity theory by Louis (1979)
Pointwise calibration of fluxes
        Little Washita (OK) SGP 97 data set




Key parameters: roughness length, initial soil moisture
We did also simulation of the soil moisture content in the
Washita basin. However the soil moisture content given by
the model has no vertical distribution and any comparison
with the SGP97 dataset CANNOT be very reliable. Below
you see results of the model for other cases studies that
show the opportunities that a model like GEOtop offers.
Mean seasonal ET at Serraia (TN)



                                             Spring
  Winter

                                           84 96 108 120 W/m2
           0   12   24   36 48   60   72




                                             Fall
  Summer
Hydrological Balance 1998-2000
                                                 Serraia (TN)
                                                Grafico bilancio del bacino del Lago della Serraia (1998 - 2000)
                                1.200                                                                                                                         363.4
                                1.100                                                                                                                         333.1
                                1.000                                                                                                                         302.9
Portata media mensile (mc/s)




                                0.900                                                                                                                         272.6




                                                                                                                                                                      Intensita (mm/mese)
                                0.800                                                                                                                         242.3
                                0.700                                                                                                                         212.0
                                0.600                                                                                                                         181.7
                                0.500                                                                                                                         151.4
                                0.400                                                                                                                         121.1
                                0.300                                                                                                                         90.9
                                0.200                                                                                                                         60.6
                                0.100                                                                                                                         30.3
                                0.000                                                                                                                         0.0
                               -0.100                                                                                                                         -30.3
                               -0.200                                                                                                                         -60.6
                                  ma 98




                                  ma 99




                                  ma 00
                                  no 98




                                  no 99




                                  no 00
                                   lug 8
                                  ag 98


                                    ott 8




                                   lug 9
                                  ag 99


                                    ott 9




                                   lug 0
                                  ag 00


                                    ott 0
                                   ap 98




                                   ap 99




                                   ap 00
                                  ma -98




                                  ma -99




                                  ma -00
                                   giu 8




                                   giu 9




                                   giu 0
                                  ge 98




                                  ge 99




                                       -0 0
                                   feb 8




                                   se 8




                                   feb 9




                                   se 9




                                   feb 00




                                   se 0
                                   dic 8




                                   dic 9




                                   dic 0
                                        -9



                                      t-9




                                        -9



                                      t-9




                                        -0



                                      t-0
                                     g-9




                                     g-9




                                     g-0
                                     n-9




                                     o-9




                                     n-9




                                     o-9




                                     o-0
                                     v-9




                                     v-9




                                     v-0
                                        -




                                        -




                                        -
                                        -




                                        -




                                        -
                                        -




                                        -




                                        -
                                      r-




                                      r-




                                      r-
                                       -




                                       -
                                     n-
                                      r




                                      r




                                      r
                                ge




                                                                                                     P - precipitazione                 ET - evapotraspirazione
                                                                  Tempo (mese-anno)                  Inv - volume invasato (accumulo)   R - rilascio
One interesting thing to check would be the sensitivity
of the hydrological balance partition to the parameter
                          set.
Serraia
There is a strong spatial variability of vertical surface
fluxes: do they induce feedback effects ?
Are those processes negligible at larger scales ?

A more accurate ABL model would be necessary to try
an answer.

We cannot compare our model result with ESTAR
because we do not have vertical distribution of soil
moisture.

What happens when no topographic gradient is
present ?
GEOtop 0.875 (2003)



                      Radiation Physics
      Energy budget

                                               GIUH +
        integration

                                          Kinematic wave+
                                             Richards +
                                          Soil freezing &
                                            Snow Cover

Code integrations by Davide Tamanini
Richards’ equation is solved
                                            ∂ψ
                                               = ∇ · (K(ψ)∇(ψ + ηz)) + qs
                                       σ(ψ)
                                            ∂t
                                                                                   1/n
                                                                    1/m
                                                          θr − θs
                                                      1
                                                 ψ=                       −1
                                                          θs − θr
                                                      α
                                                                                     2
                                                                               m
                                                                      1/m
                                             ν
                                   θr − θs                  θr − θs
                     K(θ) = KS                   1− 1−
                                   θs − θr                  θs − θr

                                             Horton Overland Flow                   Dunne
                                                                                    Saturation
                                                                                    Overland Flow


                 Surface Layer


              Unsaturated Layer



                Saturated Layer:

                Modified from Abbot et al., 1986
Richards, 1931; van Genuchten, 1980; Mualem, 1976; Veerecken, 1990; Sposito, 1997,
Putti et al, 2004
We acknowledge the SHE model however GEOtop REALLY
integrate the energy balance. Still GEOtop is 1D for energy
fluxes but it is a complete 3D system for mass fluxes. As
one can notice we used van Genuchten and Mualem
parametrizations of Richards equation. Under this
hypothesis Sposito 1997 shows that the equation is
almost scale invariant (at the price to introduce a suitable
factor in block effective hydraulic conductivities).
Parameters are obtained by the Veerecken pedotransfer
function.
Snow cover is modeled
                                      (single layer)




Tarboton and Luce, 1996; Zanotti et al, 2004
Snow cover and soil freezing cannot be neglected in
mountain areas and if we want to model the hydrological
cycle during the whole year. Because water viscosity
strongly depends on temperature we added it to the
model as a first step to have a consistent thermodynamic
system. As you find below, parametrization of subgrid
variability is still needed also at these scales. Finally we
could realistically compare GEOtop and ESTAR.
- Rilling is parametrized




- Conductivity is made dependent on Ts
ESTAR vs GEOtop soil moisture
                 evolution




Jackson T.J., http://hydrolab.arsusda.gov/sgp97; Jackson et al, 1995
Rigon et al., JHM, 2006
Rigon et al., JHM, 2006
Some other case studies
Saturation overland flow in a headwater
               catchment:
   application to Solstice Basin (CA)

 in collaboration with Bill Dietrich and Norman Miller (Berkeley University)
The Solstice Basin (CA)




Headwater catchment located in Marin County, CA,
area 16’000 m2;
Colluvial soil: maximum thickness from 2 to 5.5 meters
in the hollows, from 0.2 to 0.7 m on sideslopes
Monitored during years 1986-’87 (C. Wilson, W.E.
Dietrich)
                                                         Basin and bedrock topography
120 piezometers on sideslopes and hollows
Saturated source area measurement.
Experimental evidence:
                                                 February 1986 storm

                  0                                                          80

                 10                                                          70

                 20                                                          60

                 30                                                          50
Rainfall mm/6h




                                                                                  Streamflow l/s
                 40                                                          40

                 50                                                          30

                 60                                                          20

                 70                                                          10

                 80                                                          0
                  11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24-
                  Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

                      Solstice raingage mm/6h      Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h
                      Measured Streamflow l/s




           • measured rainfall each 6 h
           • measured stream flow each 6 h                                                         • measured saturated area:
                                                                                                    “squishy soil”
           • Total storm 400 mm in 10 days
Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic
       behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988)
Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic
       behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988)


                     a) Cross - hollow direction
                         - Deep water table in the sideslopes
                         - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes
                         - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows
Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic
       behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988)


                     a) Cross - hollow direction
                         - Deep water table in the sideslopes
                         - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes
                         - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows



                      b) Long - hollow direction
                           - Saturation overland flow
                           - Shallow water table
                           - Effects of local conductivity changes
Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic
       behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988)


                     a) Cross - hollow direction
                         - Deep water table in the sideslopes
                         - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes
                         - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows



                      b) Long - hollow direction
                           - Saturation overland flow
                           - Shallow water table
                           - Effects of local conductivity changes



                     c) Expansion of saturation saturated area
                           - Expansion beginning from the
                              nose of the hollows
GEOtop model
                                        settings
Soil and bedrock properties:
Sideslopes: shallow conductive bedrock                    Conductivities against depht: model with 8 layers
                                                              Solstice1     Solstice2     Sideslope     Model
             K decreasing with depth
                                                      0
Hollows:     loamy-sand thick
colluvium, deep impermeable bedrock,                200

some conductive points (Lehre et al. ,
                                                    400
1986)

                                         depht cm
                                                    600

Soil parameters settings:
                                                    800
• 8 soil layers with 20 m thickness
• Impermeable boundary condition                1000
• Spin-up of 3 years
                                                1200


Bedrock shape variation:                        1400
• With uniform soil profile                         1.00E-01 1.00E-02 1.00E-03 1.00E-04 1.00E-05 1.00E-06 1.00E-07
                                                                             Kv cm/s
• With measured bedrock shape
• Bedrock with different permeability
GEOtop model results




  • Surface conductivity 0.01 m/s
  • Subsurface conductivity in first layer 0.001 m/s



Either slow turbulent surface flow or quick shallow subsurface strom flow:
                equifinallity or preferential flow evidence?
GEOtop model results
Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm


                                                         0                                                          80

                                                        10                                                          70

                                                        20                                                          60

                                                        30                                                          50




                                       Rainfall mm/6h




                                                                                                                         Streamflow l/s
                                                        40                                                          40

                                                        50                                                          30

                                                        60                                                          20

                                                        70                                                          10

                                                        80                                                          0
                                                         11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24-
                                                         Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

                                                             Solstice raingage mm/6h      Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h
                                                             Measured Streamflow l/s




 Hollows partially saturated at the beginning of the storm
GEOtop model results
Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm



                                                         0                                                          80

                                                        10                                                          70

                                                        20                                                          60

                                                        30                                                          50




                                       Rainfall mm/6h




                                                                                                                         Streamflow l/s
                                                        40                                                          40

                                                        50                                                          30

                                                        60                                                          20

                                                        70                                                          10

                                                        80                                                          0
                                                         11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24-
                                                         Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

                                                             Solstice raingage mm/6h      Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h
                                                             Measured Streamflow l/s




 Different behavior of the hollows and the side slopes at the
 peak
GEOtop model results
          Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm



                                                                     0                                                          80

                                                                    10                                                          70

                                                                    20                                                          60

                                                                    30                                                          50




                                                   Rainfall mm/6h




                                                                                                                                     Streamflow l/s
                                                                    40                                                          40

                                                                    50                                                          30

                                                                    60                                                          20

                                                                    70                                                          10

                                                                    80                                                          0
                                                                     11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24-
                                                                     Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

                                                                         Solstice raingage mm/6h      Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h
                                                                         Measured Streamflow l/s




Measured discontinuous patterns at the end of the event
GEOtop model results
total head gradient- first layer 5 cm




    Mostly topographically driven
GEOtop model results
         total head gradient- first layer 5 cm




Not only topography drives down-slope water flow but also suction potential drives
the up-slope expansion of the saturated area. Delay in basins response, increase of
saturated area
Mass movements
                     at Sauris (UD)
                         basin




Mostly worked out by S. Simoni and F. Zanotti
Geotop and trent-2d
  •DTM                                     •Soil characterization
 •Meteo data                               (hydraulic parameters)
  •Rain data                               •land use
                                           •vegetation

                     GEOtop 0.875
Geotop project


                   3D Mass and Energy
                   budgets at catchment
                           scale


                                              •Soil characterization
                      GEOtop-FS               (geotechnical parameters)

                 •dynamic probability of
                 landslide triggering
                 •sediment availability

                                              •liquid and solid
                                              discharge          1
                                              •detailed topography
                  Run-out module
trent-2d




                                              •closure relations
                                              (concentration & shear
                 •run-out distance            stress)
                                              •sediment and transport
                 •erosion-deposit height
                 •flow velocity
                 •hazard maps
Simoni et al., Hydrol. Proc., 2008
model structure                                    data exploited
                                                                              soil Cover
                                           •Soil characterization
                     GEOtop 0.875                                         type and weight of soil
                                           (hydraulic parameters)
Geotop project

                                                                                  cover
                                           •land use
                   3D Mass and Energy
                                           •vegetation
                   budgets at catchment
                                                                         Geomorphological
                           scale
                                                                             analysis
                                             •DTM
                                            •Meteo data
                                                                             Geophysics
                                             •Rain data
                      GEOtop-FS                                               Soil Depth
                                                                             Water content
                 •dynamic probability of
                                           •Soil characterization
                 landslide triggering                                      Geological info
                                           (geotechnical parameters)
                 •sediment availability
                                                                              stratigraphy
                                                                           quaternary covers

                                                                          traditional photo
                                           •liquid and solid
                  Run-out module
trent-2d




                                                                            interpretation
                                           discharge
                                           •detailed topography               rock presence
                 •run-out distance         •closure relations               erosion signatures
                 •erosion-deposit height                                     human activities
                                           (concentration & shear
                 •flow velocity             stress)
                 •hazard maps              •sediment and transport      Climate and Weather
                                                                              models
                                                                             Rainfall, wind...


                                                                         Earth Observations
A conceptual experiment
Effects of topography on hydrological balance




Elevations 25%             Elevations 40%          Elevations 50%




                           Elevations 100%
Elevations 60%                                      Elevations 125%


                                                  Security Exit
                                 2, 1 year simulation
            Serraia Basin, 15 km
Effects of topography on hydrological balance




                                        Security Exit
Bertoldi et al.,JHM, 2006
Effects of topography on hydrological balance




Bertoldi et al.,JHM, 2006
An application to the Valsugana valley
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                                                                      x
                                            ●   Pergine                   Borgo Valsugana




                                                      ●          Levico

                                                ●         Caldonazzo
An application to the Valsugana valley
                                                             GCMs




                                                 Step1: Dynamical downscaling
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                                             RCMs




                                                 Step2: Bias-correction and data
                                                         disaggregation


                                                         From daily to
                                                          hourly data




                                                  Step3: Rainfall-runoff model
                                                           calibrated


                                                           Impacts of
                                                        climate change
An application to the Valsugana valley
Monthly mean discharge (m3/s) from HAD_P model, for historic
(1961-1988) and simulated control and future scenario.
Mostly worked out by L. Forlin




                  Results indicate how the approximation is excellent from May to
                  July, with overestimation during autumn and underestimation in
                  winter.The flow is predicted substantially to increase from
                  October to April and decrease during summer months.
An application to the Valsugana valley
              Monthly mean fluxes (mm/month) from HAD_P model,
              for control and future scenario.
Mostly worked out by L. Forlin




                Results indicate a future seasonal variability with drier summers and
                wettest winters.
An application to the Valsugana valley
Monthly mean snow cover (mm/month) and surface temperature
(°C) from HAD_P model, for control and future scenario.
 Mostly worked out by L. Forlin




Results indicate a substantial decrease in snow cover and increase
 in surface temperature.
GEOtop 0.9375
                                       (2006-2008)

                                               GIUH +
                  Radiation Physics
  Energy budget



                                          Kinematic wave+
                                             Richards +
                                          Soil freezing &
                                            Snow Cover


Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi, E. Cordano, s, Simoni e M. Dall’Amico
GEOtop 0.9375
                                      (2006-2008)

                                    Radiation Physics
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                      improved by
                                   accepting several
                                   parameterizations
GEOtop 0.9375
                                                              (2006-2008)
                                   Multilayer parameterization
                                   For each layer a system of 5 equations is solved
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                                    1  ∂W ∂Qw 
                                             θw =            +
                                                                 
                                                                          Liquid and solid water budget
                                                    ρ w  ∂t   ∂z 
                                                                              equations
                                                 1  ∂W ∂Qi 
                                             θi =        +    
                                                 ρ i  ∂t   ∂z 
                                                                                                                   Energy
                                    €                                                                        
                                                                                                                   budget
                                                                                             ∂T 
                                                   ∂W ∂  ∂T  ∂ (QwUw)
                                             ∂T                                              k  = − Rn + H + L
                                            C + Lf   = k +
                                                                                                                   equation
                                                                                             ∂z 
                                                   ∂T ∂z  ∂z 
                                             ∂t                    ∂z
                                   €

                                                                      Continuity equation
                                             θ w +θ i +θ v = 1
                                                                                  €
                                   €
                                             W ≠ 0 if        T = 273.15K        ; W = 0 if        T ≠ 273.15K
                                                     Link phase change - temperature
                                   €

                                   €
GEOtop 0.9375
                                                      (2006-2008)
                                   MODIS                     GEOtop model   mm SWE
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                   24 OTTOBRE 2003
GEOtop 0.9375
                                                      (2006-2008)
                                   MODIS                     GEOtop model   mm SWE
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                   17 January 2004
Application of GEOtop to the
                                    Adamello-Mandrone Glacier
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                            (Trentino, Italy)
Distributed results
                                   mm w.eq.
Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi




                                        Mass balance 1 Oct 2004 - 30 Sep 2005   73
Comparison model - measurements
          Ice melting after snow disappearance




• Problems in estimating the snow disapperance date (underestimation
  of snow precipitation measured with the classical rain gauge)
• Good agreement, in particular for stakes 2 and 7                 74
The Stubaital case

by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner
Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of echology, Innsbruck
The Stubaital case

by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner
Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck
      Initial assumption: time constant vegetation density




                                                                      Model - Observations comparison
                                                                            Snow - free season 2005
                                                                               Model       Obs    Model-Obs
                                                                          2
                                                                 H [W/m ]        26         20        6
                                                                           2
                                                                 LE [W/m ]       88         85        3
                                                                 G [W/m2]         4          4        0
                                                                          2
                                                                 H [W/m ]        80         76        4
                                                                   Ts [K]        11         12       -1
                                                                  SWC [ ]       0.48       0.37     0.11




  •                    Can we perform a process based calibration ?
  •                       Can we avoid parameter equi-finality ?
                                  Yes if are considered …
  •     overall consistency (different components of the water and energy balance)
  •                           different time and spatial scales.
The Stubaital case

    by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner
    Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck
       Preliminary simulation with UNIFORM LAND COVER; meadow valley model calibration.

       LANDSAT LST                                                                  GEOTOP LST
                                       ΔT=LSTGeoTop-LSTLandsat




•        The illuminations alone (sun incidence angle, shadows) explains 71% of the variability.
•                        Best agreement for valley meadows and alpine pasture.
•    Major differences for high elevations regions (glaciers and south facing slopes) and for forests.

                                 What are the dominant processes ?
                            What is the optimal model complexity level ?
The Stubaital case

by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner
Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck
Some of the next steps
GEOtop Development
                       0.5

                       0.75
                                  GEOTOP-SF
                      0.875          0.75


                      0.9375      GEOTOP-SF
                                    0.875
                     0.9375- EO
Automatic
Calibration
                                  GEOTOP-SF
                                    0.9375
   Data             GEOFRAME
Assimilation
GEOtop will be splitted in
    components and the components
       managed by JGrass. The
=




    components will be based on the
          OpenMI standard.
GEOFRAME: JGrass 3.0




http://www.jgrass.org
JGrass (www.jgrass.org) is a full
featured GIS system based on udig
  (www.refractions.net ). It allows
=




    communication to databases,
internet and provides an interfaces
   to components’ Input-Outputs
GEOFRAME: JGrass 3.0




    www.jgrass.org
GEOFRAME

                                     external
            users       web          database



                       Interfacce
                     (Java/JGRASS)



Tools di analisi                             Modelli
  (UNITN/R)                              (UNITN/OpenMI)




                        Database
              (PostgresSQL/PostGIS/CUAHSI)
GEOFRAME: JGrass 3.0 structure
  JGrass
                                                                                  Eclipse RCP
                                                                           uDig
                                                                  JGrass
PostGIS
           J-Console engine
Postgres                                                                   GIS engine
                              OpenMI
                                Hydrolog. model
             Horton Machine




                                                  Statistical anal.
 WEB                                                                        UIBuilder
services

WMS                                                                         HSQLDB
WFS-T
WPS
                                                                      GRASS GIS
udig itself lives upon the Rich
  Client Platform given by Eclipse
=


(www.eclipse.or). JGrass uses also
HSQL as internal database, and a
custom interfaces builder to give a
       GUI to any command.
GEOFRAME: OpenMI
Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not
                       represented.




   Interface

                      Interface
   Model                                 Interface
                                                            Interface
                      Model
    Data
               File                      Model
                                                            Model
                                  File
                       Data
                                          Data       File
                                                             Data




                                                                 88
GEOFRAME: OpenMI
    Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not
                           represented.




        Interface

                           Interface
        Model                                 Interface
                                                                 Interface
                           Model
         Data
                    File                      Model
                                                                 Model
                                       File
                            Data
                                               Data       File
                                                                  Data




from HarmonIT Roger Moore’s, CEH, Wallingford, UK presentation
                                                     88
GEOFRAME: OpenMI
Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not
                       represented.




   Interface

                      Interface
   Model                                 Interface
                                                            Interface
                      Model
    Data
               File                      Model
                                                            Model
                                  File
                       Data
                                          Data       File
                                                             Data




                                                                 88
OpenMI gives a set of standard
        interfaces to make model
=


    components to communicate, even
        having feedbacks between
         components, and can link
      components programmed in C,
          FORTRAN or PASCAL
GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool
                           Connection
   1-D
  River




                                                3-D
                                                Sea
                                3-D



                        2-D
                      Estuary




Graph tool
                                           18
                                      90
GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool
                              Connection
      1-D
     River




                                                           3-D
                                                           Sea
                                               3-D



                                  2-D
                                Estuary




   Graph tool
                                                      18
from HarmonIT Roger Moore’s, CEH, Wallingford, UK presentation
                                                     90
GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool
                           Connection
   1-D
  River




                                                3-D
                                                Sea
                                3-D



                        2-D
                      Estuary




Graph tool
                                           18
                                      90
OpenMI provides methods to
   change at run-time the model
=


configuration. Different components
 doing the same job can be used in
       alternative seamlessly.
GEOFRAME: OpenMI


   Monitored                                                        Evapotranspiration
     data

   Weather                          Surfaces                             Surfaces
   Generator                      Interception                            Runoff



    Weather
                                                                     Subsurface Flow
    Forecast


                                                                                 18
http://www.openmi.org, http://www.openmi-life.org/, http://public.wldelft.nl/display/OPENMI/Home
                                                                                    92
GEOFRAME: OpenMI

                                                             Channel Routing
                           Evapotranspiration
                                                                   1



                                 Surfaces                    Channel Routing
                                  Runoff                           II



                                                             Channel Routing
                             Subsurface Flow
                                                                   III




                                                                                 18
http://www.openmi.org, http://www.openmi-life.org/, http://public.wldelft.nl/display/OPENMI/Home
                                                                                    93
GEOFRAME : J-Hydro
JGrass provides also the database
     to store and retrieve simulations
=
after Dietrich et al., 2001
Still, as the painting by Rosseau, shows GEOtop is a
  mosaic of “realistic pieces” inside an improbable
ecosystem (not to speak of other model). Things are
              however getting better ;-)
Core contributors




           DICA Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale
           CUDAM Centro Universitario per la Difesa dell’Ambiente Montano
           riccardo rigon


            GEOtop Developers Team (GDT)
            stefano endrizzi, emanuele cordano, christian tiso, giacomo
            bertoldi



            Mountain-eering: matteo dall’amico, silvia simoni, fabrizio
            zanotti.



            HYDROLOGIS: andrea antonello, silvia franceschi,
            www.hydrologis.com
Thank you for your attention
                                                      Numerics

                                                                       Physics
       Dance, Henry Matisse, Hotel Biron early 1909




  Analytics
                                                                             Hydrology



                                                                 Geography
Comprehensive GEOtop Bibliography

•Simoni, S., F. Zanotti, G. Bertoldi and R. Rigon, Modelling
     the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and
     channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS, accepted
     for Hydrol. Proc., published on-line, Dec 2007

•Rigon R., Bertoldi G e T. M. Over, GEOtop: A distributed
     hydrological model with coupled water and energy
     budgets, Jour. of Hydromet., Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 371-
     388., Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 371-388.

•Bertoldi, G., R. Rigon & T. M. Over, Impact of watershed
     geomorphic characteristics on the energy and water
     budgets, Jour. of Hydromet., Vol. 7, No. 3, p. 371-
     388. Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 389 - 394, 2006.
B-
•Simoni S., Zanotti F., Rigon R., Squarzoni C., Approccio
     probabilistico alla determinazione dell'innesco di frane
     superficiali con in modello accoppiato idro-geotecnico:
     GEOTOP-SF, Atti del convegno quot;idra2006 : XXX
     Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idraulichequot;, Roma,
     10-15 Settembre, 2006.

•Bertoldi G., Dietrich W.E., Miller N. L., Rigon R.. Bedrock
     and soil contribution to the formation of sub-surface
     runoff by saturation in headwater catchments:
     observations and simulation using a distributed
     hydrological model, Atti del XXIX Convegno di Idraulica
     e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Trento, Settembre 2004.

• Zanotti F, Endrizzi S, Bertoldi G, Rigon R. 2004. The
     GEOTOP snow module. Hydrological Processes 18:
     3667–3679. DOI:10/1002/hyp.5794.
B-
•Zanotti, F., Endrizzi S., Rigon R. Il modulo di accumulo e
  scioglimento della neve in Geotop. Atti del XXIX
  Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Trento,
  Settembre 2004.

•Tiso, C., Bertoldi G. and R. Rigon. Il modello Geotop-SF
  per la determinazione dell'innesco di fenomeni di
  franamento e di colata. Atti del Convegno
  Interpraevent 2004, Riva del Garda, 24-28 Maggio
  2004.

•Bertoldi G., Rigon R. and Over T.M., Un'indagine sugli
  effetti della topografia sul ciclo idrologico con il
  modello GEOTOP, Atti del XXVIII Convegno di Idraulica
  e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Potenza, Italy, 2002.
A few relevant presentations
CAHMDA II - Princeton, October 25-27, 2004




                                                       GEOTOP:
                                             a distributed modeling of the
                                                hydrological cycle in the
                                                   remote sensing era
                                                     R. Rigon , G. Bertoldi, T.M. Over., D. Tamanini,

                                                Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale - CUDAM
                                                                   Università di Trento
                                                       Geography Dept. Eastern Illinois University
San Francisco AGU Fall meeting - Dec 15 2006


The triggering of shallow landslides and
        channelized debris flows
 analyzed with the distributed model
             GEOtop - FS




      R. Rigon, S. Simoni, F. Zanotti & M. Dall’Amico
      DICA & CUDAM Università di Trento - ITALY
Beyond and side by side
    with Numerics
       Dance, Henry Matisse, Hotel Biron early 1909




   A reflection on making applicable hydrology today
Riccardo Rigon - Group of Hydrology - Trento University
The snow and glacier
  description in the GEOtop
            model
                 Stefano Endrizzi


Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
           University of Trento, Italy

                  Zürich, 18th March 2008
Application of a physically-based
   hydrological model to the
  Adamello-Mandrone Glacier


       Stefano Endrizzi, Riccardo Rigon
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
              Università di Trento
                       Italy

      Obergurgl (Austria), 28 August 2007
The water and energy balance
           in mountain catchments:
       a distributed modelling approach

                           G.Bertoldi
S. Endrizzi, F. Zanotti, T.M. Over, S. Simoni, R.Rigon, U. Tappeiner


                  Institute for Alpine Environment
                         EURAC, Bozen, Italy

                    Innsbruck, 31th March 2008

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GEOtop 2008

  • 1. The rational behind GEOtop: through its historical development and applications R. Rigon Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale - CUDAM Università di Trento
  • 2. Four or Five problems we wanted to investigate
  • 3. Rainfall–Runoff spatial patterns Problem : We cannot currently predict the spatial pattern of watershed response to precipitation and cannot quantitatively describe the surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow with enough accuracy and consistency to be operationally useful. Critical issues: Watershed runoff and streamflow are affected by heterogeneity in soil hydraulic properties, landscape structural properties, soil moisture profile, surface–subsurface interaction, interception by plants, snowpack, and storm properties. (Committee of hydrological Sciences NRC, 2003)
  • 4. Snow mantle evolution and ablation Problem: We would like to predict the spatial pattern of snow cover, its volumes and its effects on runoff with enough accuracy and consistency to be operationally useful. Critical Issue: Also in this case we know enough of the snow physics “in a point” but we do not have many tools to understand the snow cover effects on larger, catchment scales. Related problem: snow avalanches
  • 5. Soil freezing and permafrost Problem: We would like to predict the spatial pattern of soil temperatures even in complex terrain and in presence of phase transitions Critical Issue: Soil freezing introduces high non linearities at low temperatures. Related problem: snow avalanches
  • 6. Landslide and debris flow initiation Problem: We cannot currently predict, the triggering of shallow landslides which eventually turns into a debris or a mudflow. Critical Issue: Initial and boundary conditions. Landslide initiation is affected by heterogeneity in soil hydraulic and geotechnical properties, landscape structural and geological properties, soil moisture profile, surface– subsurface interactions.
  • 7. We did not forget Ecohydrology ... but we will not discuss it here Problem: We wouldlike to better understand the interactions between soils, hydrology and plants. Critical Issues: the biological system are highly non linear. The basic physiological laws are not really known (or hydrologist ignore many of them)
  • 8. Committee of hydrological Sciences NRC, 2003: “Although our understanding of individual processes is improving, the integration of that body of knowledge in spatially distributed predictive models has not been approached systematically”.
  • 9. This talk is not about new equations or new paradigms: is mostly abot consistency of the modeling approach. It show a tool we use to lear about the hydrological processes at the small scales.
  • 10. A small tribute to Stephan Gruber We present here the evolution of the GEOTOP models and discuss their limitation
  • 12. GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997) Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
  • 13. GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997) GIUH + Kinematic wave+ Bucket model Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
  • 14. GEOtop 0.5 was the ancestor (1997) Radiation Physics Penman-Monteith GIUH + Kinematic wave+ + Bucket model Paolo Verardo and Marco Pegoretti coded it
  • 15. GEOtop 0.5 (1997) P Qsup ∂Qsup ∂Qsup + c(x) = c(x) qL I ∂t ∂s c ∝ y(x)m Qsub Qsub = T ∇z b Z Z x W (x, τ) x − u(t − τ)2 t L Qc(t) = exp − dτ dx 4DL(t − τ) 4πDL(t − τ) 0 o Eagleson, 1971; Beven and Kirkby, 1979; Rodriguez-Iturbe and Valdes, 1979; Rinaldo et al., 1991
  • 16. GEOtop 0.5 (1997) ET Rn Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa ET = 1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra Rn = [sh R ↓SW + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) + P V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4 G Brutsaert, 1975; Iqbal, 1983; Garrat, 1992, Enthekabi, 1997 and many others
  • 17. GEOtop 0.5 (1997) ET Rn Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa ET = 1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra Rn = [sh R ↓SW + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) + P V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4 G Brutsaert, 1975; Iqbal, 1983; Garrat, 1992, Enthekabi, 1997 and many others
  • 18. Calculating ET in highly complex terrain needs a proper treatment of radiation physics (including the effect of the vie angle and the shadowing). Below you see how much this is a limit for radiation to arrive to the surface.
  • 19. GEOtop 0.5 (1997) ET Rn Δ/λ(Rn − G) + ρ/ra δqa ET = 1 + Δ/γ + rg /ra Rn = [sh R ↓SW + V R ↓SW D ] (1 −V α) + P V εs R ↓LW −V εs σTs4 G
  • 20. Albedo is a key factor too. It can be easily detected from Earth Observation (EO) products and simple modelling of the canopy evolution during the seasons (actually still not included in GEOTOP)
  • 21. GEOtop 0.5 Real ET After Feddes et al, 1988
  • 22. Real ET is obtained cutting the potential ET in dependence of water availability. In complex terrain water tend to accumulate in lowland concave - convergent sites. Many large scale hydrological models pretends to give ET estimation by neglecting this fact ;-)
  • 23. GEOtop 0.5 worked well for flood predictions and weekly ET (after a proper parameter calibration). It also showed some dynamics on the soil moisture storage (dS/dt = 0 in some models!) and redistribution at catchment scale, HOWEVER .... It could not describe properly the vertical distribution of soil moisture in soils (essential to landslide forecasting and emissivity estimations). Moreover, using air T for soil T (Ts) was a huge limitation.
  • 24. GEOtop 0.75 (2000) Radiation Physics Energy budget GIUH + integration Kinematic wave+ Bucket model Code integrations by Giacomo Bertoldi
  • 25. GEOtop 0.75 is conceived to integrate the full energy balance. As a consequence Ts becomes a variable of the model (this obviuosly complicates GEOtop) but increases at the same the possibility to check its behavior (Ts or its radiative effect is a measurable quantity): we add complexity but at the same time we add observables. Ts is strongly affected by water content.
  • 26. GEOtop 0.75 Energy Balance (2000) Rn Qp ET H dE/dt Qm G dE dTs = Cp = Rn − H − ET + Q p − G − Qm dt dt H = ρ c pCH u (T s − Ta) ˆ ET = λρ Ce u (q∗(Ta) − q∗(Ta) Ua) ˆ
  • 27. GEOtop 0.75 (2000): Turbulent fluxes appear! Ts>Ta CH, CE ↑ CH, CE ↓ Ts<Ta Aerodynamic roughness length Similarity theory by Louis (1979)
  • 28. Pointwise calibration of fluxes Little Washita (OK) SGP 97 data set Key parameters: roughness length, initial soil moisture
  • 29. We did also simulation of the soil moisture content in the Washita basin. However the soil moisture content given by the model has no vertical distribution and any comparison with the SGP97 dataset CANNOT be very reliable. Below you see results of the model for other cases studies that show the opportunities that a model like GEOtop offers.
  • 30. Mean seasonal ET at Serraia (TN) Spring Winter 84 96 108 120 W/m2 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 Fall Summer
  • 31. Hydrological Balance 1998-2000 Serraia (TN) Grafico bilancio del bacino del Lago della Serraia (1998 - 2000) 1.200 363.4 1.100 333.1 1.000 302.9 Portata media mensile (mc/s) 0.900 272.6 Intensita (mm/mese) 0.800 242.3 0.700 212.0 0.600 181.7 0.500 151.4 0.400 121.1 0.300 90.9 0.200 60.6 0.100 30.3 0.000 0.0 -0.100 -30.3 -0.200 -60.6 ma 98 ma 99 ma 00 no 98 no 99 no 00 lug 8 ag 98 ott 8 lug 9 ag 99 ott 9 lug 0 ag 00 ott 0 ap 98 ap 99 ap 00 ma -98 ma -99 ma -00 giu 8 giu 9 giu 0 ge 98 ge 99 -0 0 feb 8 se 8 feb 9 se 9 feb 00 se 0 dic 8 dic 9 dic 0 -9 t-9 -9 t-9 -0 t-0 g-9 g-9 g-0 n-9 o-9 n-9 o-9 o-0 v-9 v-9 v-0 - - - - - - - - - r- r- r- - - n- r r r ge P - precipitazione ET - evapotraspirazione Tempo (mese-anno) Inv - volume invasato (accumulo) R - rilascio
  • 32. One interesting thing to check would be the sensitivity of the hydrological balance partition to the parameter set.
  • 34. There is a strong spatial variability of vertical surface fluxes: do they induce feedback effects ? Are those processes negligible at larger scales ? A more accurate ABL model would be necessary to try an answer. We cannot compare our model result with ESTAR because we do not have vertical distribution of soil moisture. What happens when no topographic gradient is present ?
  • 35. GEOtop 0.875 (2003) Radiation Physics Energy budget GIUH + integration Kinematic wave+ Richards + Soil freezing & Snow Cover Code integrations by Davide Tamanini
  • 36. Richards’ equation is solved ∂ψ = ∇ · (K(ψ)∇(ψ + ηz)) + qs σ(ψ) ∂t 1/n 1/m θr − θs 1 ψ= −1 θs − θr α 2 m 1/m ν θr − θs θr − θs K(θ) = KS 1− 1− θs − θr θs − θr Horton Overland Flow Dunne Saturation Overland Flow Surface Layer Unsaturated Layer Saturated Layer: Modified from Abbot et al., 1986 Richards, 1931; van Genuchten, 1980; Mualem, 1976; Veerecken, 1990; Sposito, 1997, Putti et al, 2004
  • 37. We acknowledge the SHE model however GEOtop REALLY integrate the energy balance. Still GEOtop is 1D for energy fluxes but it is a complete 3D system for mass fluxes. As one can notice we used van Genuchten and Mualem parametrizations of Richards equation. Under this hypothesis Sposito 1997 shows that the equation is almost scale invariant (at the price to introduce a suitable factor in block effective hydraulic conductivities). Parameters are obtained by the Veerecken pedotransfer function.
  • 38. Snow cover is modeled (single layer) Tarboton and Luce, 1996; Zanotti et al, 2004
  • 39. Snow cover and soil freezing cannot be neglected in mountain areas and if we want to model the hydrological cycle during the whole year. Because water viscosity strongly depends on temperature we added it to the model as a first step to have a consistent thermodynamic system. As you find below, parametrization of subgrid variability is still needed also at these scales. Finally we could realistically compare GEOtop and ESTAR.
  • 40. - Rilling is parametrized - Conductivity is made dependent on Ts
  • 41. ESTAR vs GEOtop soil moisture evolution Jackson T.J., http://hydrolab.arsusda.gov/sgp97; Jackson et al, 1995
  • 42. Rigon et al., JHM, 2006
  • 43. Rigon et al., JHM, 2006
  • 44. Some other case studies
  • 45. Saturation overland flow in a headwater catchment: application to Solstice Basin (CA) in collaboration with Bill Dietrich and Norman Miller (Berkeley University)
  • 46. The Solstice Basin (CA) Headwater catchment located in Marin County, CA, area 16’000 m2; Colluvial soil: maximum thickness from 2 to 5.5 meters in the hollows, from 0.2 to 0.7 m on sideslopes Monitored during years 1986-’87 (C. Wilson, W.E. Dietrich) Basin and bedrock topography 120 piezometers on sideslopes and hollows Saturated source area measurement.
  • 47. Experimental evidence: February 1986 storm 0 80 10 70 20 60 30 50 Rainfall mm/6h Streamflow l/s 40 40 50 30 60 20 70 10 80 0 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Solstice raingage mm/6h Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h Measured Streamflow l/s • measured rainfall each 6 h • measured stream flow each 6 h • measured saturated area: “squishy soil” • Total storm 400 mm in 10 days
  • 48. Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988)
  • 49. Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988) a) Cross - hollow direction - Deep water table in the sideslopes - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows
  • 50. Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988) a) Cross - hollow direction - Deep water table in the sideslopes - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows b) Long - hollow direction - Saturation overland flow - Shallow water table - Effects of local conductivity changes
  • 51. Experimental evidence: hypothesis on the hydrologic behavior (Wilson and Dietrich, 1988) a) Cross - hollow direction - Deep water table in the sideslopes - Infiltration gradients in the sideslopes - Exfiltration gradients in the hollows b) Long - hollow direction - Saturation overland flow - Shallow water table - Effects of local conductivity changes c) Expansion of saturation saturated area - Expansion beginning from the nose of the hollows
  • 52. GEOtop model settings Soil and bedrock properties: Sideslopes: shallow conductive bedrock Conductivities against depht: model with 8 layers Solstice1 Solstice2 Sideslope Model K decreasing with depth 0 Hollows: loamy-sand thick colluvium, deep impermeable bedrock, 200 some conductive points (Lehre et al. , 400 1986) depht cm 600 Soil parameters settings: 800 • 8 soil layers with 20 m thickness • Impermeable boundary condition 1000 • Spin-up of 3 years 1200 Bedrock shape variation: 1400 • With uniform soil profile 1.00E-01 1.00E-02 1.00E-03 1.00E-04 1.00E-05 1.00E-06 1.00E-07 Kv cm/s • With measured bedrock shape • Bedrock with different permeability
  • 53. GEOtop model results • Surface conductivity 0.01 m/s • Subsurface conductivity in first layer 0.001 m/s Either slow turbulent surface flow or quick shallow subsurface strom flow: equifinallity or preferential flow evidence?
  • 54. GEOtop model results Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm 0 80 10 70 20 60 30 50 Rainfall mm/6h Streamflow l/s 40 40 50 30 60 20 70 10 80 0 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Solstice raingage mm/6h Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h Measured Streamflow l/s Hollows partially saturated at the beginning of the storm
  • 55. GEOtop model results Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm 0 80 10 70 20 60 30 50 Rainfall mm/6h Streamflow l/s 40 40 50 30 60 20 70 10 80 0 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Solstice raingage mm/6h Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h Measured Streamflow l/s Different behavior of the hollows and the side slopes at the peak
  • 56. GEOtop model results Saturated area - water content first layer 5 cm 0 80 10 70 20 60 30 50 Rainfall mm/6h Streamflow l/s 40 40 50 30 60 20 70 10 80 0 11- 12- 13- 14- 15- 16- 17- 18- 19- 20- 21- 22- 23- 24- Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Solstice raingage mm/6h Pan Toll Raingage mm/6h Measured Streamflow l/s Measured discontinuous patterns at the end of the event
  • 57. GEOtop model results total head gradient- first layer 5 cm Mostly topographically driven
  • 58. GEOtop model results total head gradient- first layer 5 cm Not only topography drives down-slope water flow but also suction potential drives the up-slope expansion of the saturated area. Delay in basins response, increase of saturated area
  • 59. Mass movements at Sauris (UD) basin Mostly worked out by S. Simoni and F. Zanotti
  • 60. Geotop and trent-2d •DTM •Soil characterization •Meteo data (hydraulic parameters) •Rain data •land use •vegetation GEOtop 0.875 Geotop project 3D Mass and Energy budgets at catchment scale •Soil characterization GEOtop-FS (geotechnical parameters) •dynamic probability of landslide triggering •sediment availability •liquid and solid discharge 1 •detailed topography Run-out module trent-2d •closure relations (concentration & shear •run-out distance stress) •sediment and transport •erosion-deposit height •flow velocity •hazard maps
  • 61. Simoni et al., Hydrol. Proc., 2008
  • 62.
  • 63. model structure data exploited soil Cover •Soil characterization GEOtop 0.875 type and weight of soil (hydraulic parameters) Geotop project cover •land use 3D Mass and Energy •vegetation budgets at catchment Geomorphological scale analysis •DTM •Meteo data Geophysics •Rain data GEOtop-FS Soil Depth Water content •dynamic probability of •Soil characterization landslide triggering Geological info (geotechnical parameters) •sediment availability stratigraphy quaternary covers traditional photo •liquid and solid Run-out module trent-2d interpretation discharge •detailed topography rock presence •run-out distance •closure relations erosion signatures •erosion-deposit height human activities (concentration & shear •flow velocity stress) •hazard maps •sediment and transport Climate and Weather models Rainfall, wind... Earth Observations
  • 65. Effects of topography on hydrological balance Elevations 25% Elevations 40% Elevations 50% Elevations 100% Elevations 60% Elevations 125% Security Exit 2, 1 year simulation Serraia Basin, 15 km
  • 66. Effects of topography on hydrological balance Security Exit Bertoldi et al.,JHM, 2006
  • 67. Effects of topography on hydrological balance Bertoldi et al.,JHM, 2006
  • 68. An application to the Valsugana valley Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi x ● Pergine Borgo Valsugana ● Levico ● Caldonazzo
  • 69. An application to the Valsugana valley GCMs Step1: Dynamical downscaling Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi RCMs Step2: Bias-correction and data disaggregation From daily to hourly data Step3: Rainfall-runoff model calibrated Impacts of climate change
  • 70. An application to the Valsugana valley Monthly mean discharge (m3/s) from HAD_P model, for historic (1961-1988) and simulated control and future scenario. Mostly worked out by L. Forlin Results indicate how the approximation is excellent from May to July, with overestimation during autumn and underestimation in winter.The flow is predicted substantially to increase from October to April and decrease during summer months.
  • 71. An application to the Valsugana valley Monthly mean fluxes (mm/month) from HAD_P model, for control and future scenario. Mostly worked out by L. Forlin Results indicate a future seasonal variability with drier summers and wettest winters.
  • 72. An application to the Valsugana valley Monthly mean snow cover (mm/month) and surface temperature (°C) from HAD_P model, for control and future scenario. Mostly worked out by L. Forlin Results indicate a substantial decrease in snow cover and increase in surface temperature.
  • 73. GEOtop 0.9375 (2006-2008) GIUH + Radiation Physics Energy budget Kinematic wave+ Richards + Soil freezing & Snow Cover Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi, E. Cordano, s, Simoni e M. Dall’Amico
  • 74. GEOtop 0.9375 (2006-2008) Radiation Physics Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi improved by accepting several parameterizations
  • 75. GEOtop 0.9375 (2006-2008) Multilayer parameterization For each layer a system of 5 equations is solved Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi 1  ∂W ∂Qw  θw = +   Liquid and solid water budget ρ w  ∂t ∂z  equations 1  ∂W ∂Qi  θi =  +  ρ i  ∂t ∂z  Energy € budget  ∂T  ∂W ∂  ∂T  ∂ (QwUw) ∂T  k  = − Rn + H + L C + Lf = k + equation  ∂z  ∂T ∂z  ∂z  ∂t ∂z € Continuity equation θ w +θ i +θ v = 1 € € W ≠ 0 if T = 273.15K ; W = 0 if T ≠ 273.15K Link phase change - temperature € €
  • 76. GEOtop 0.9375 (2006-2008) MODIS GEOtop model mm SWE Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi 24 OTTOBRE 2003
  • 77. GEOtop 0.9375 (2006-2008) MODIS GEOtop model mm SWE Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi 17 January 2004
  • 78. Application of GEOtop to the Adamello-Mandrone Glacier Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi (Trentino, Italy)
  • 79. Distributed results mm w.eq. Mostly worked out by S. Endrizzi Mass balance 1 Oct 2004 - 30 Sep 2005 73
  • 80. Comparison model - measurements Ice melting after snow disappearance • Problems in estimating the snow disapperance date (underestimation of snow precipitation measured with the classical rain gauge) • Good agreement, in particular for stakes 2 and 7 74
  • 81. The Stubaital case by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of echology, Innsbruck
  • 82. The Stubaital case by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck Initial assumption: time constant vegetation density Model - Observations comparison Snow - free season 2005 Model Obs Model-Obs 2 H [W/m ] 26 20 6 2 LE [W/m ] 88 85 3 G [W/m2] 4 4 0 2 H [W/m ] 80 76 4 Ts [K] 11 12 -1 SWC [ ] 0.48 0.37 0.11 • Can we perform a process based calibration ? • Can we avoid parameter equi-finality ? Yes if are considered … • overall consistency (different components of the water and energy balance) • different time and spatial scales.
  • 83. The Stubaital case by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck Preliminary simulation with UNIFORM LAND COVER; meadow valley model calibration. LANDSAT LST GEOTOP LST ΔT=LSTGeoTop-LSTLandsat • The illuminations alone (sun incidence angle, shadows) explains 71% of the variability. • Best agreement for valley meadows and alpine pasture. • Major differences for high elevations regions (glaciers and south facing slopes) and for forests. What are the dominant processes ? What is the optimal model complexity level ?
  • 84. The Stubaital case by G. Bertoldi, P. Rastner, C. Notarnicola, and U. Tappeiner Data from G. Wolfhart, Institute of Echology, Innsbruck
  • 85. Some of the next steps
  • 86. GEOtop Development 0.5 0.75 GEOTOP-SF 0.875 0.75 0.9375 GEOTOP-SF 0.875 0.9375- EO Automatic Calibration GEOTOP-SF 0.9375 Data GEOFRAME Assimilation
  • 87. GEOtop will be splitted in components and the components managed by JGrass. The = components will be based on the OpenMI standard.
  • 89. JGrass (www.jgrass.org) is a full featured GIS system based on udig (www.refractions.net ). It allows = communication to databases, internet and provides an interfaces to components’ Input-Outputs
  • 90. GEOFRAME: JGrass 3.0 www.jgrass.org
  • 91. GEOFRAME external users web database Interfacce (Java/JGRASS) Tools di analisi Modelli (UNITN/R) (UNITN/OpenMI) Database (PostgresSQL/PostGIS/CUAHSI)
  • 92. GEOFRAME: JGrass 3.0 structure JGrass Eclipse RCP uDig JGrass PostGIS J-Console engine Postgres GIS engine OpenMI Hydrolog. model Horton Machine Statistical anal. WEB UIBuilder services WMS HSQLDB WFS-T WPS GRASS GIS
  • 93. udig itself lives upon the Rich Client Platform given by Eclipse = (www.eclipse.or). JGrass uses also HSQL as internal database, and a custom interfaces builder to give a GUI to any command.
  • 94. GEOFRAME: OpenMI Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not represented. Interface Interface Model Interface Interface Model Data File Model Model File Data Data File Data 88
  • 95. GEOFRAME: OpenMI Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not represented. Interface Interface Model Interface Interface Model Data File Model Model File Data Data File Data from HarmonIT Roger Moore’s, CEH, Wallingford, UK presentation 88
  • 96. GEOFRAME: OpenMI Serially linked models by file transfer. Feedback loops not represented. Interface Interface Model Interface Interface Model Data File Model Model File Data Data File Data 88
  • 97. OpenMI gives a set of standard interfaces to make model = components to communicate, even having feedbacks between components, and can link components programmed in C, FORTRAN or PASCAL
  • 98. GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool Connection 1-D River 3-D Sea 3-D 2-D Estuary Graph tool 18 90
  • 99. GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool Connection 1-D River 3-D Sea 3-D 2-D Estuary Graph tool 18 from HarmonIT Roger Moore’s, CEH, Wallingford, UK presentation 90
  • 100. GEOFRAME: OpenMI tool Connection 1-D River 3-D Sea 3-D 2-D Estuary Graph tool 18 90
  • 101. OpenMI provides methods to change at run-time the model = configuration. Different components doing the same job can be used in alternative seamlessly.
  • 102. GEOFRAME: OpenMI Monitored Evapotranspiration data Weather Surfaces Surfaces Generator Interception Runoff Weather Subsurface Flow Forecast 18 http://www.openmi.org, http://www.openmi-life.org/, http://public.wldelft.nl/display/OPENMI/Home 92
  • 103. GEOFRAME: OpenMI Channel Routing Evapotranspiration 1 Surfaces Channel Routing Runoff II Channel Routing Subsurface Flow III 18 http://www.openmi.org, http://www.openmi-life.org/, http://public.wldelft.nl/display/OPENMI/Home 93
  • 105. JGrass provides also the database to store and retrieve simulations =
  • 106. after Dietrich et al., 2001
  • 107. Still, as the painting by Rosseau, shows GEOtop is a mosaic of “realistic pieces” inside an improbable ecosystem (not to speak of other model). Things are however getting better ;-)
  • 108. Core contributors DICA Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale CUDAM Centro Universitario per la Difesa dell’Ambiente Montano riccardo rigon GEOtop Developers Team (GDT) stefano endrizzi, emanuele cordano, christian tiso, giacomo bertoldi Mountain-eering: matteo dall’amico, silvia simoni, fabrizio zanotti. HYDROLOGIS: andrea antonello, silvia franceschi, www.hydrologis.com
  • 109. Thank you for your attention Numerics Physics Dance, Henry Matisse, Hotel Biron early 1909 Analytics Hydrology Geography
  • 110. Comprehensive GEOtop Bibliography •Simoni, S., F. Zanotti, G. Bertoldi and R. Rigon, Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS, accepted for Hydrol. Proc., published on-line, Dec 2007 •Rigon R., Bertoldi G e T. M. Over, GEOtop: A distributed hydrological model with coupled water and energy budgets, Jour. of Hydromet., Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 371- 388., Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 371-388. •Bertoldi, G., R. Rigon & T. M. Over, Impact of watershed geomorphic characteristics on the energy and water budgets, Jour. of Hydromet., Vol. 7, No. 3, p. 371- 388. Vol. 7, No. 3, pages 389 - 394, 2006. B-
  • 111. •Simoni S., Zanotti F., Rigon R., Squarzoni C., Approccio probabilistico alla determinazione dell'innesco di frane superficiali con in modello accoppiato idro-geotecnico: GEOTOP-SF, Atti del convegno quot;idra2006 : XXX Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idraulichequot;, Roma, 10-15 Settembre, 2006. •Bertoldi G., Dietrich W.E., Miller N. L., Rigon R.. Bedrock and soil contribution to the formation of sub-surface runoff by saturation in headwater catchments: observations and simulation using a distributed hydrological model, Atti del XXIX Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Trento, Settembre 2004. • Zanotti F, Endrizzi S, Bertoldi G, Rigon R. 2004. The GEOTOP snow module. Hydrological Processes 18: 3667–3679. DOI:10/1002/hyp.5794. B-
  • 112. •Zanotti, F., Endrizzi S., Rigon R. Il modulo di accumulo e scioglimento della neve in Geotop. Atti del XXIX Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Trento, Settembre 2004. •Tiso, C., Bertoldi G. and R. Rigon. Il modello Geotop-SF per la determinazione dell'innesco di fenomeni di franamento e di colata. Atti del Convegno Interpraevent 2004, Riva del Garda, 24-28 Maggio 2004. •Bertoldi G., Rigon R. and Over T.M., Un'indagine sugli effetti della topografia sul ciclo idrologico con il modello GEOTOP, Atti del XXVIII Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Potenza, Italy, 2002.
  • 113. A few relevant presentations
  • 114. CAHMDA II - Princeton, October 25-27, 2004 GEOTOP: a distributed modeling of the hydrological cycle in the remote sensing era R. Rigon , G. Bertoldi, T.M. Over., D. Tamanini, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile ed Ambientale - CUDAM Università di Trento Geography Dept. Eastern Illinois University
  • 115. San Francisco AGU Fall meeting - Dec 15 2006 The triggering of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows analyzed with the distributed model GEOtop - FS R. Rigon, S. Simoni, F. Zanotti & M. Dall’Amico DICA & CUDAM Università di Trento - ITALY
  • 116. Beyond and side by side with Numerics Dance, Henry Matisse, Hotel Biron early 1909 A reflection on making applicable hydrology today Riccardo Rigon - Group of Hydrology - Trento University
  • 117. The snow and glacier description in the GEOtop model Stefano Endrizzi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Trento, Italy Zürich, 18th March 2008
  • 118. Application of a physically-based hydrological model to the Adamello-Mandrone Glacier Stefano Endrizzi, Riccardo Rigon Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Università di Trento Italy Obergurgl (Austria), 28 August 2007
  • 119. The water and energy balance in mountain catchments: a distributed modelling approach G.Bertoldi S. Endrizzi, F. Zanotti, T.M. Over, S. Simoni, R.Rigon, U. Tappeiner Institute for Alpine Environment EURAC, Bozen, Italy Innsbruck, 31th March 2008