Niels HOLTHAUSEN1, Pamela KÖLLNER-HECK2, Michael BRÜNDL3, Peter LOCHER1, Marco PÜTZ4, Sabine PERCH-NIELSEN1, Lilian BLASER1, Thomas PROBST2, Roland HOHMANN2 1Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; 2Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland; 3WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland; 4Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland

1. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a
national climate change adaptation strategy
in Switzerland
IDRC Davos 2012, 28 August 2012
Niels Holthausen, Pamela Köllner-Heck, Michael Bründl, Peter Locher, Marco Pütz, Sabine
Perch-Nielsen, Lilian Blaser, Thomas Probst, Roland Hohmann
Ernst Basler + Partner, Federal Office for the Environment FOEN,
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF,
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL

2. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Motivation (FOEN)
 Besides the most urgently needed reduction of greenhouse gas emissions → mitigation,
we need to adapt in the best possible way to the impacts of climate change → adaptation.
 National Adaptation Strategy shall enable the departments to coordinate climate change
adaptation actions on Federal level
 An assessment of climate related risks and opportunities shall identify the most important
fields of actions whithin the National Adaptation Strategy
Objectives (FOEN)
 Identify, evaluate and compare major climate related risks and opportunities across
sectors
 Quantify risks and opportunities
 Taking variabilities of annual impacts into account
 Compare with impacts due to socio-economic and demographic changes
 Identify major knowledge gaps
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 2

3. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Impact areas
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 3

4. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Hazards and effects
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 4

5. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Impact area/hazard-matrix
E xtreme
E xtreme precipitation Average precipitation Average temperature Wind
temperature
Muds lides / lands lides / s hallow
C hange in prec ipitation regime
R educ ed s now c over / glac iers
R oc kfalls / roc ks lides / debris
Thawing of permafros t
Inc reas e in average
General drought
Thunders torms
Winter s torms
temperature
Avalanc hes
Fores t fires
Heat wave
C old wave
avalanc he
lands lides
Flooding
Fros t
Health
Agriculture
F orest
Energy
Tourism
Infrastructure and buildings
Water management
Biodiversity
Open spaces and green areas
Selection of relevant fields depends on investigated area
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 5

6. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Climate scenarios
Climate 2010 Climate 2060 - A Climate 2060 - B
• Temperature:
• Temperature and Upper level of A2
Socio-economic and (IPCC)
precipitation:
demographic Based on RCP3PD • Precipitation: Based
situation 2010 (IPCC) on A2 (IPCC)
• Likely socio-economic
Socio-economic and developments per
demographic impact area
scenario 2060 (literature and expert
judgements)
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 6

7. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Climate scenarios
Socioecon. and demogr. scenarios
Climate 2010 Climate 2060 - A Climate 2060 - B
Intensiv- Mittlere Extrem-
Bereich der Veränderung: Mittlere Temperatur Wind
niederschläge Niederschläge temperatur
Ver ä nderung Mitteltemperatur
Mure / Erdrutsch / Hangmure
Steinschlag, Fels- / Bergsturz
Reduktion Schneedecke /
Socio-economic and • Temperature and
Abschmelzen Gletscher
Auftauen Permafrost
Niederschlagsregime
• Temperature and
allg. Trockenheit
Schneelawinen
Sturm / Orkan
Ä nderung im
precipitation:
Hochwasser
Waldbrand
Kä ltewelle
Hitzewelle
Gewitter
demographic precipitation:
Frost
Based on RCP3PD
Gesundheit
Landwirtschaft
situation 2010
Wald
Based on A2 (IPCC)
(IPCC)
Energie
Tourismus
Infrastrukturen und Gebäude
Wasserwirtschaft
Biodiversität
Freiräume und Grünflächen
• Likely socio-economic
Socio-economic and developments per
demographic impact area
scenario 2060 (literature and expert
judgements)
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 7

8. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Example: buildings and infrastructures
(case study canton Aargau)
Hazard / effect Impacts quantitative Impacts non-quantitative
Flooding Structural damages Consequences of structural
damages (e.g. business
interruption)
Damage to movables Evacuation + other inconvenience
Damage to transportation Damage to remaining
facilities infrastructures and vehicles
Indirect effects due to
unavailability of infrastructures
Increase in Reduction of energy Altered maintenance costs for
average consumption for heating roads
temperature (buildings and electric vehicles)
Increase of energy consumption
for cooling (buildings, vehicles)
Reduction winter services
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 8

9. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Analysing the impacts – Quantitative analysis
 Annual aggregated impacts of a hazard/effect on the impact area
 Information on min, EV, max (99%-quantile), type of distribution function
 Based on
– data on former events (e.g. statistics of building insurances) or
– expert estimations (experts from impact areas and hazard/effect experts)
 Definition of probability density functions (PDF)
 Aggregation by Monte Carlo simulation
Results: PDF showing the variability of annual impacts
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 9

10. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Upscaling on national level
1. Case study per main
region
2. Upscaling of case
study results to main AG
region (method to be
developed)
3. Assessment for
Switzerland
SRA-Europe Conference, Zurich 19/06/2012 10

11. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Results: Prospects and limitations
Prospects
 Results allow for a transparent prioritisation of adaptation
needs from a risk point of view
 Results give an impression of the magnitude of mean and
extreme annual aggregated impacts
Limitations
 uncertainties
 lack of data
 lack of scientific understanding of impacts
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 11

12. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Thank you
for your attention
Feedback/questions to:
niels.holthausen@ebp.ch
pamela.koellner-heck@bafu.admin.ch
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 12

13. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Analysing the impacts – Uncertainties
 Uncertainty assessment (except for climate change)
– Estimating today‘s risk: model uncertainty
(with impact area experts)
– Impact of CC on hazards/effects
(with hazard/effect experts)
– Development of socioeconomic and demographic
environment (with scenario experts by impact area)
 Sensitivity analyses
– Planned for impacts of hazards without clear trends in climate
scenarios (e.g. hail storms)
SRA-Europe Conference, Zurich 19/06/2012 13

14. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy
and Communications (DETEC)
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN
Climate Division
Semi-quantitative analysis of impacts
Analysis per impact area Qual. description of
«further impacts»
per impact area
E xtreme
E xtreme precipitation Average precipitation Average temperature Wind
temperature
Muds lides / lands lides / s hallow
C hange in prec ipitation regime
R educ ed s now c over / glac iers
R oc kfalls / roc ks lides / debris
1 Major impacts? (per hazard/effect) minor
Thawing of permafros t
Inc reas e in average
General drought
Thunders torms
Winter s torms
temperature
Avalanc hes
Fores t fires
Heat wave
C old wave
avalanc he
lands lides
Flooding
Fros t
Health
Agric ulture
F orest
Energy
Tourism
Infrastruc ture and buildings
Water management
Biodiversity
Open spac es and green areas
major • Most indirect
economic impacts
2 Quantifiability? no • Effects on
biodiversity
yes
• …
3 Analysis of impacts per hazard/effect
Assessment of relevance
Quantitative results
of «further impacts»
compared to quantitative
results
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 14