5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Applying the SD Approach to
Cascading Effects in Case of Flood
Events
1st Romana Berariu
2nd Christian Fikar
3rd Manfred Gronalt
4th Patrick Hirsch
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Institute of Production and Logistics

2. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Introduction
Focus on Flood Events
• high amount of damages
– 1970 - 2006 floods caused an annually loss of 3.8 billion US$ in Europe
• total damage of a 100-year flood for the Upper Danube will increase
Fig. 2 Overall losses in billion Euro of recorded events from 1998 - 2009
EEA, 2011
Fig. 1 Events recorded from 1998 – 2009
EEA, 2011

3. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Critical Infrastructure
• Basis of economy, security, and health & refers to assets, systems, and
networks.
• Sectors included are exemplarily:
– transport systems,
– water and wastewater systems,
– energy sectors,
– information technologies,
– government facilities,
– food and agriculture,
U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014)
 healthcare and public health,
 financial service sectors,
 emergency services,
 communication sectors,
 chemical industries, … .

4. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Cascading Effects
• A sequence of events in which each produces the circumstances necessary
for the initiation of the next
• Fukushima accident (March 2011)
initial event was a 9.0-magnitude earthquake
 14-meter tsunami
 nuclear power plant situated on the coast
 high temperatures within the reactor units
 series of explosions
 radioactive steams were released into the environment

5. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Visualization of Cascading Effects
• Usually modelled as sequences
• System Dynamics
– first applied by Forrester (1961)
– enables to capture the complexity of disasters
– feedback thinking through Causal-Loops (CLDs)
• Example: May (2007)
– cascading effects resulting from flash floods
– cascading effects displayed as a cascading tree
Interdependencies have to be considered!

6. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Comparison of Visualization Approaches
Fig. 3 Cascading effects in a sequencing (left) and in a dynamic way (right) based on an example of May (2007)

7. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Advantages of the SD Approach
Fig. 4 Cascading effects of flash floods as CLD based on an example of May (2007), extended to the transport sector

8. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Management Circle
Fig. 5 Disaster Management Circle

9. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Applying the SD Approach to the Transport Sector
in Case of Flood Events
Fig. 6 Consequences of the flood on the transport infrastructure
Fig. 7 Example of consequences of the flood on the transport
infrastructure

10. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Simplified CLD – Disaster Relief
Fig. 8 Example of CLD concerning disaster relief

11. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusion
• CLDs enable to understand the complex dimensions of
disaster events.
• Cascading effects and relations of the different impacts of
floods have been detected.
• Through identification and comprehension of these dynamic
interactions and cascading effects, disaster management is
supported.
• Ensuring best possible conditions for the victims
– requires well-planned disaster management
– including cascading effects in the decision-making process

12. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Further Steps
• Further research is required
with respect to quantitative
considerations.
• Stock-and-flow diagrams will
be developed to generate
deeper understanding through
scenario analyses.
Fig. 9 Example of a Stock-and-Flow model

13. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
System Dynamics
Stock-and-flow model
“System dynamics deals with how things
change through time, which includes
most of what most people find
important.”
Quote from Jay Forrester

14. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Further steps
• Data collection
– Literature review
– Case study analyses
– Interviews concerning disaster response to the European flood in 2013
have already been conducted
• federal armed forces
• the voluntary fire brigade
• emergency medical organization
– Further interviews with executive staff in case of a flooding event are
planned

15. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Further steps
• Show how short-term response measures and long-term
preventive measures (including time delays) influence the
disaster evolution process.
• Simulating different scenarios, by changing the exogenous
variables and parameters.
• It is planned to develop the prototype of a software tool that
can be used for educational purposes of (future) decision-
makers.

16. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
References
• Allaby, Michael (2004). A Dictionary of Ecology, Oxford University Press Inc., New York, NY.
• Barredo, José I. (2009). Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006. Natural Hazards and Earth System
Sciences, 9 (1), 97–104.
• EEA (2011). Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe — An overview of
the last decade, Technical Report, No 13/2010, European Environment Angency Copenhagen, 12 Jan
available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/mapping-the-impacts-of-natural (accessed 15 May
2014).
• EOS Project Science Office (2014). The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters, available at:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php (accessed 15 May 2014).
• European Commission (2013). Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection – Prevention, available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/echo/policies/prevention_preparedness/prevention_en.htm (accessed 15 May 2014).
• Feyen, Luc; Dankers, Ruger; Barredo, José I.; Kalas, Milan Bódis, Katalin.; de Roo, Ad; Lavalle, Carlo (2006).
Flood risk in Europe in a changing climate, available at:
http://www.preventionweb.net/files/2800_EUR22313EN.pdf (accessed 29 May 2014).
• Forrester, Jay Wright (1961). Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
• Funabashi Y, Kitazawa K (2012). Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response. Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientist,. Published online 1 March 2012. DOI: 10.1177/0096340212440359.
• May, Fred (2007). Cascading Disaster Models in Postburn Flash Flood. In Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, The
fire environment-innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March, Destin, FL,
U.S Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 443-464.
• U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014). Critical infrastructure, available at: http://www.dhs.gov/what-
critical-infrastructure (accessed 20 May 2014).

17. 5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Acknowledgments
Financial support of the programme KIRAS provided by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation,
and Technology, is gratefully acknowledged.