COMES Tina - An ICT system for decision making under severe uncertainty in disaster management

An ICT system for decision-making under severe uncertainty in disaster management Tina Comes, Michael Hiete, Frank Schultmann 3rd International Disaster and Risk Conference Risk, Disasters, Crisis and Global Change – From Threats to Sustainable Opportunities 30 May - 3 June 2010, Davos, Switzerland

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Strategic decision-making in disaster management Selection of best mitigation measure Problem: Uncertainty in Consequences and Evaluation Consequences Evaluation for each mitigation measure Multiple objectives Preferences Decision Makers and Stakeholders Experts Prognoses Situation description Decision Ranking of measures

Determining the consequences of a decision ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Aim: Generation of relevant, consistent, coherent, plausible scenarios  distributed scenario construction with Causal Maps (CMs)

Distributed generation of scenarios Consequences of decision alternative a Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 Expert 4 Expert N … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Scenario Expert I Expert II Expert III Expert IV … x 1 x 2 x 3 x j x i x n

Construction of the Causal Map ,[object Object],Expert Z b l i CM Expert A b k i b j i identification of best timely available expert CM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],attribute c 2 attribute c 3 attribute c 4 attribute c n-1 attribute c n … attribute c 1 … b A i b Z i b l i b k i b j i

Generation of scenarios b 1 i b k i b 2 i b 3 i -… b j i b m i … … ,[object Object],Mitigation measure ,[object Object],[object Object],attribute c 2 attribute c 3 attribute c 4 attribute c n-1 attribute c n … attribute c 1 … b 1 i b 2 i b 3 i … b m i b 1 i b k i b 2 i b 3 i … b j i b m i … … attribute c 2 attribute c 3 attribute c 4 attribute c n-1 attribute c n … attribute c 1 … b k i b j i …

Evaluation of scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],R Attribute Tree Criteria criterion 1 … criterion p x 2 ( a 2 ) … x n ( a 2 ) x 1 ( a 2 ) x n-1 ( a 2 ) s 1 ( a 2 ) Attributes weighing and aggregation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],x 2 (a 1 ) … x n (a 1 ) x 1 (a 1 ) x n-1 (a 1 ) s 1 ( a 1 ) normalisation with value functions x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) … … x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) x 2 (a 1 ) … x n (a 1 ) x 1 (a 1 ) x n-1 (a 1 ) s M1 ( a 1 ) x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) x 2 (a) … x n (a) x 1 (a) x n-1 (a) S 1 (a) x 2 ( a 2 ) … x n ( a 2 ) x 1 ( a 2 ) x n-1 ( a 2 ) s M2 ( a 2 )

Disaster management example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],uncertain developments Time Threat current situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Construction of Causal Map Information request Attribute Tree Health Effort Impact on society # ill in hospital exposed and sheltered # residents exposed and sheltered Criteria R Attributes Plume: shape & concentration Source term Weather Areas affected Population distribution in area A Hospitals distribution in area A Hospitals exposed in area A Leak size Chemical Vessel size Number of ill in hospital in area A exposed Mitigation measure: Shelter area A Number residents in area A exposed

Generation of scenarios Flow of information Number of ill in hospital in area A exposed Decision alternative: Shelter area A Number residents in area A exposed Plume: shape & concentration Source term Weather Areas affected Population distribution in area A Hospitals distribution in area A Attribute Tree Health Effort Impact on society # ill in hospital exposed and sheltered # residents exposed and sheltered Criteria R Attributes Hospitals exposed in area A Leak size Chemical Vessel size Source term Plume: shape & concentration Number of ill in hospital in area A exposed Mitigation measure: Shelter area A Number residents in area A exposed Areas affected Population distribution in area A Hospitals distribution in area A Hospitals exposed in area A # ill in hospital exposed and sheltered # residents exposed and sheltered

Exemplary results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Evaluation R(s) Scenarios for Alternatives Evacuation (E), Sheltering (S) and Do Nothng (N) results for best and worst scenarios

Conclusion and Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

COMES Tina - An ICT system for decision making under severe uncertainty in disaster management

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