The document discusses the importance of imagination and coordination in preparing for large disasters. It distinguishes between "black swans", rare events that are generally unimaginable, and "dragon kings", rare events that result from endogenous dynamics within socio-ecological systems and are therefore more imaginable and predictable. It argues that incentive structures within socio-ecological systems should encourage both imagination about potential disasters and coordination between different sectors in preparing for disasters. The key lesson is that incentive structures are important for encouraging people and organizations to consider unlikely but potentially catastrophic events.

1. Lessons learned from very large
disasters – some remarks about
imagination and co-ordination
IDRC Davos 2012
29 August 2012
Armin Haas

2. Imagination
• Thinking the unthinkable.
• Black Swans vs. Dragon Kings.

3. Black Swans
• Nicolas Taleb:
„An outlier, as it lies outside the realm of
regular expectations, because nothing in the
past can convincingly point to its possibility“.
• Our definition:
Black Swans: Events most people cannot
imagine, or refrain from imagining.

4. Black Swans
• The Fukushima Tsunami was a 100-years
event.

5. Dragon Kings
• Didier Sornette:
Dragon Kings: Rare events that result from
endogenous dynamics of markets.
• Our broader definition:
Dragon Kings: Rare events that result from
endogenous dynamics of socio-ecological
systems.
=> Imaginable
Comprehensible
Predictable (within limits)

7. Imagination
• Incentive structures in socio-ecological
systems.
• Encouraging/rewarding imagination?
• Punishing imagination?

9. Co-ordination
• Co-ordinating different sub-systems of the
socio-ecological system,
e.g. policy, business, civil society.
• Co-ordinating different sub-systems within
a specific sub-system,
e.g. different governmental
departments/agencies.

10. Co-ordination
• Incentive structures in socio-ecological
systems.
• Encouraging/rewarding co-operation?
• Punishing co-operation?

11. Imagination & Co-ordination
• Incentive structures in socio-ecological
systems.
• Descriptive/normative question:
Trade-off or synergies between
incentivising imagination and
incentivising co-ordination?

12. Lesson learned
• Incentive structures are key for thinking
the unthinkable.

13. Thank you for your attention.