5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Social Vulnerability to Drought
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risks in the Arab Region
Prof. Wadid ERIAN
The League of Arab States LAS
Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII
Member in UNISDR GAR Advisory Board
Advisor World Bank 2012
Bassem Katlan, GIS specialist.
The Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Drylands ACSAD,
Kishan Khoday, Regional Practice Leader for Environment & Energy and
ZubairMurshed, Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor,
United Nations Development Programme, UNDP Regional Center in Cairo

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Temperatures … Increase
Precipitation ……decline
Evapo-transpiration levels …. move up
Water availability reduced
Population continue ……. growing
Climate variability ----increases
The already on going Water-Scarce in the
region becomes disaster
Accordingly, People in many Arab countries may
not have enough water to irrigate crops, support
industry, or provide drinking water.
Poverty, Unemployment, Diseases, Instability
between farmers and pastoralists People living
in cities and those working in tourism ……..
increase
natural resources becomes under risk
Climate change also affects gender dynamics.
Challenges requires Adaptation Pyramid, which
is based on process of assessing the climate,
reacting to the perceived challenges,
implementing cross-sectoral responses, and
monitoring progress; all with strong leadership.
Climate Change in the Arab States
Illustrates:
Source WB 2012

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
ب أ
د ج
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Projected Aridity Changes in the 21st Century.
Dai Aiguo 2010. “Drought under Global Warming “ . National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, Colorado , USA , John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81
أ
ب
ج
و
ه
ـ

4. As a result of inevitable Population Gross
population growth (possibly to
600 Million by 2050) and
expected economic
development
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Population Density Person/Km 2
it is clear that there will
rising demands for Water,
Food and Energy from the
land over the coming
decades.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w
iki/Image:Pop_density.jpg

5. INCREASED FOOD GAP expected to reach 70 B $ by the year 2025
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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6. Water and Land in Agriculture
Green Water Blue Water Gray
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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SUBLIMANTRY
IRRIGATION
GRAY
WATER
FORSTS & FRUIT TREES
60 M Ha (4%)
RAINFED Crops
80 M Ha (6%)
RANGELANDS
+/- 230 M Ha (17%)
IRRIGATED CROPS
SURFACE WATER
IRRIGATED CROPS
GROUND WATER
BRAKISH
WATER
Water
Brackish
Water
2,148 only 10% is used the rest
evaporate
209 surface ,
38 ground
30
Desalinization
km3 per year
World Bank, 2007a
11 M Ha (1%)
Vegetation Cover Areas is only 27.8 % of the total Arab Countries’
Area
Source Erian 2014

7. Most of the Arab countries are consequently heading towards a severe water scarcity. A close
look at the current status of the water supply shows that it is continuing to decline. By 2025,
the per capita water supply will be approximately 500 m3 /cap/yr, or 15 per cent of what it
used to be in 1960, when it stood at 3,300 m3 /cap/yr.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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8. The Arab region has a total area of about 14 million square kilometers, of which
more than 87 per cent is desert, with extreme aridity and poor vegetation cover.
The average amount of rain received by the Arab region is estimated at 2,148
km3 per year, of which about 50 per cent occurs in the Sudan. Total precipitation
averages 156 mm/yr5 but varies considerably from one country to another.
Over 90 per cent of rainwater in dry marginal rangelands,6 including the Arab region,
is lost to evaporation
Renewable water resources in the Arab region are estimated at around 335 km3
/yr; more than half of this amount (60 – 65%) originates outside the region and
enters the regions primarily via international rivers (trans- boundary rivers).
The agricultural sector is the prime water consumer at the regional level, with an
annual average consumption level of 146 km3 , or 83% per cent of the total
amount of water available.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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FACTS
Arab Countries Regional Report, WWF5, 2009.
World Bank, 2007a.
FAO, 1997.
World Water Forum 2006, WB2007, UNDP 2008.
IFAD, Thematic Priorities in NENA 2008.
AOAD 2006 Statistics.
FAO-Aquastat database
Due to water scarcity, a total of approximately 30
km3 of unconventional water supplies
(desalinated seawater) are being produced every
year, mainly in the Gulf countries

9. Precipitation deficit is defined as a
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
A period of abnormally dry weather long enough
to cause a serious hydrological imbalance.
Drought is a relative term
shortage of precipitation related to
particular activity
during the growing season affects yield - SOIL
MOISTURE DROUGHT, or
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT, Storage changes in soil moisture and
groundwater are also affected by increases
in actual evapotranspiration in addition to
reductions in precipitation.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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A MEGADROUGHT
is drought, lasting much longer than normal,
usually a decade or more.
during the runoff season affects water supplies –
HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
Source: Erian et al 2012 modified from IPCC 2012

10. EXPO
SURE POPULATION
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
VULNER
ABILITY
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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AGRICULTURE DROUGHT
HAZARD
LAND COVER/USE
LOSS IN Vegetation LAND –USE including Negative
change in vegetation Cover Land degradation in Arab
Countries and River’s Basins
LOSS IN CROPS
SPEI
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
SOCIO ECONOMICA
VULNERABILITY
AVAILABLE
STATISTICAL DATA
ANALYSIS
HAZ
ARD
RISK
Affected
POPULATION
Source: Erian et al 2012

11.  C 1. No DHA covers 885.74 million Km2 of the study area and represents 66.21%
 C 2 Slight DHA covers 2.4 million Km2 of the study area and represents 17.88%
 C 3. Moderate DHA covers 1.6 million Km2 of the study area and represents 11.91%
 C 4. Severe DHA covers 0.53 million Km2 of the study area and represents 4.01%
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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12. Total effected areas by LD are ≈ 600 million hectares represents 44.84% of the total Arab
Region area 1400 million hectares ,
the Severely affected (moderate and severe) areas are ≈ 205 million hectares represents 15.35%
of the total Study area.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Potential Estimated Losses in Rainfed
TOTAL Arab Region
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
No. of Worker lost Jobs
in ‘000
49.85 5760 606.06
Countries
Ranked
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million US$
No. of
Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
Sudan 17.78 1897 204.43
Algeria 8.03 1016 104.32
Morocco 9.95 883 99.98
Iraq 3.63 588 57.27
Syria 3.64 524 52.20
Mauritania 2.07 286 28.93
Tunisia 2.21 269 27.78
Lebanon 0.66 79 8.17
Yemen 0.52 67 6.90
Libya 0.39 49 5.04
Saudi
0.31 34
Arabia
3.58
Egypt 0.23 27 2.88
West Bank 0.28 17 2.17
Jordan 0.09 18 1.69
Oman 0.05 6 0.63
UAE 0.01 0 0.06
Kuwait 0 0 0.02
Qatar 0 0 0.02

14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Potential Estimated Losses in Rangelands
TOTAL Arab Region
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
No. of Worker lost Jobs in
‘000
80.6 18127 64.44
Countries
Ranked
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million US$
No. of
Worker lost
Jobs in
‘000
Sudan 40.23 8415 30.15
Algeria 8.49 2291 8.00
Mauritania 8.99 2093 7.35
Iraq 5.89 1841 6.34
Morocco 7.86 1417 5.21
Syria 3.11 852 2.98
Tunisia 1.72 407 1.45
Yemen 1.22 242 0.87
Libya 1.08 201 0.74
Saudi Arabia 1 165 0.62
Jordan 0.36 72 0.26
Lebanon 0.19 48 0.17
Oman 0.17 32 0.12
West Bank 0.13 19 0.07
Egypt 0.1 20 0.07
W.Sahara 0.05 8 0.03

15. TOTAL LOSSES
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Countries Ranked with
TOTAL Losses
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Billion US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
Sudan 59.54 11018 235.10
Algeria 16.75 3384 112.37
Morocco 17.91 2352 105.23
Iraq 9.53 2435 63.62
Syria 6.79 1406 55.20
Mauritania 11.19 2508 36.37
Tunisia 3.99 693 29.23
Lebanon 0.87 134 8.35
Yemen 1.74 310 7.77
Libya 1.47 250 5.78
Saudi Arabia 1.31 200 4.20
Egypt 0.33 47 2.95
West Bank 0.41 36 2.24
Jordan 0.45 90 1.95
Oman 0.22 41 0.74
UAE 0.02 1 0.07
Kuwait 0.01 5 0.03
Qatar 0 1 0.02
Western Sahara 0.05 8
Comoros 0 3
Total Arab Region 132.58 24.922 671.23
Farmers, poor people in
rural areas are moving to
cities creating pressure on
housing and Random
settlement areas .
By the year 2050 almost
70% of population will be
leaving in cities many of
them without are jobless
or work in informal
business job .
Loosing land and
renewable water sources
means less food
production, degradation,
reduction in biodiversity,
instability, and increase
conflicts , displacement
and migration.

16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Countries South Europe
Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘001
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘001
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘001
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Billion US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in 10000
South Europe countries
Spain, Italy, France,
Greece, Serbia, Portugal,
Croatia, Albania,
Macedonia, Bosnia &
Herzeg, Armenia,
Montenegro and Bulgaria
39.64 7610 7149893 714.99 35.78 11482 39.43 22.37 18864 13.62 97.79 37.956 7.68
Total Arab Regon 49.85 5760 884282 606.06 80.6 18127 64.44 2.13 1035 0.76 132.58 24.922 671.23
Total Important Middle
East Countries Turkey,
Iran and Israel
40.29 8426 7780498 5392.534 32.84 9949 34.513 8.91 6991 5.127 82.04 25.366 54.32174
Agriculture share in GDP are
2.5%, 7.4%, 11% respectively

17. Agriculture share in GDP are
27 %, 20% respectively
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Countries
Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million US$
No. of
Worker lost
Jobs in
‘000
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million US$
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million US$
No. of
Worker lost
Jobs in
‘000
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Billion US$
No. of
Worker lost
Jobs in
‘000
Total other Nile Basin
Countries: Ethiopia,
Somalia, Kenya, Congo
DR, Uganda, Tanzania,
Burundi and Rwanda
18.96 3244 311.54 76.67 26927 2.73 1458 1.049 98.36 31.629 403.5
Egypt and Sudan 18.01 1924 207.31 40.33 8435 1.53 706 0.526 59.87 11.065 238.0

18. Agriculture share in GDP are
35%, 12% respectively
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Countries
Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘000
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘000
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Million
US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘000
Losses in
Million Ha
Losses in
Billion US$
No. of
Worker
lost Jobs
in ‘000
Total Chad, Niger,
Mali and Senegal 29.59 3220 345.18 52.48 11377 40.40 0.57 237 0.146 82.64 14.834 385.73
Total Algeria,
Morocco,
Mauritania, Tunis
and Libya
22.65 2503 266.04 28.14 6409 22.75 0.52 275 0.193 51.31 9.187 288.98

19. Water, Energy
and Food
Security
On the Right
Road to Rio+20
Domestic
REDUCE COST
We are here
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Irrigated
Increased by
CHANGING
GRADUALY
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Gray Water
Brackish and
Sea Water
Rainfed
Harvesting Efficiency
Desalinization Treatment
Develop Nuclear &
renewable sources of
energy
Tourisms
Energy Price per Water M3
High Tech Industry
Moderate Tech Industry
Low Tech Industry
High Cash Crops
Moderate Cash Crops
Subsistence farming
High
non- renewable LOW
sources of energy
Source Erian 2014

20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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CONCLUSION
 Drought and land degradation is extremely serious problem in the Arab region,
and will be an increasingly a threat, If the losses is in 132 million hectares that
represent ≈30% of the total vegetation cover area. That but the Arab region
under growing food insecurity, increasingly food gab (expected to reach 70 B $
by the year 2025 ).
 With food insecurity increasing and the loss of vegetation cover increases, and
as the majority of GDP is coming from Agriculture we could see ≈ 28% of Arab
Region ‘s population is already under in poverty, with increase of Job losses.
 Drought and desertification across much in area with a high sensitivity of
vegetation cover and crops to climate force that usually resulted in rapid land
use changes and high vulnerability to land degradation.
 A key challenge for understanding and addressing these risks is to bring together the
science of climate change and drought risks on one hand, and emerging resilience based
development policy responses on the other hand.
 Many countries in the Arab Region are suffering from increased conflicts,
displacements and instability, alongside growing fragility of ecosystem services,
with trends of land degradation, soil depletion and reduced water security.

21. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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This framework , as shown below
is based on:
 better understanding of
Modeling Drought Risk
Assessment, using indices for
analyzing long-term drought
trends and satellite data to
reconstruct past agricultural
droughts, and measuring
Drought main elements
“intensity, variability frequency
and persistence” in any given
area.
 With this information, it is
possible to identify the exposure
of areas of rainfed agriculture,
rangeland, forests, irrigated
croplands, individuals and cattle
to agricultural drought as well as
the amount of drought-affected
areas experiencing land
degradation,
 to further estimate expected
annual average losses, in multi-resolution
and scales that allow
working in Multi levels (global,
regional, national and local
communities), (Erian et al.,
2014)

22. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for DRR
• We need to recognize people specially poor people in fragile
ecosystem communities (e.g. Drylands which represent 41% of
the globe and 2 billion people), they require better attention,
• few people are talking about “Oasis “ they are under threat of
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
nature hazards and deterioration.
• Prevention, Recovery and Building Resilience Require using our
resources better in Research, Education & Training, Implementation &
Practice and Policy. We are sharing this Universe …and NO ONE IS SAFE if the
others are SUFFERING and become Hopeless.
• Remember that what so called “Arab Spring “ was only a start of more
violence , killing,…. and not yet controlled….. Drought, Land degradation
Poverty, Unemployment …….. lack of nature resources , population increasing
played major role.

23. Thank you
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
wadiderian@yahoo.com
wadiderian@gmail.com