This document presents a study on using a disaster propagation model to analyze the impact of rainfall on a regional freeway network in Southeast China. The study develops a model to estimate travel times on the network under varying rainfall conditions. It evaluates the model using real traffic and precipitation data. The results show the model can accurately estimate travel times for passenger cars and trucks, with most estimates falling within the confidence interval of observed travel times. The study concludes the model provides an effective way to evaluate the direct and indirect losses rainfall can cause to transportation systems and critical infrastructure.
Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network
1. Using Disaster Propagation Model to
Study Rainfall Impact on Regional
Freeway Network
Jiayuan YE, Saini YANG, Xuechi ZHANG, Shuai HE
Beijing Normal University
2. Introduction
Transportation
Critical Infrastructure
Essential for the functioning of society and economy
Heavily impacted by disastrous event causing direct and
indirect losses
Rainfall Impact on Highway Traffic Network
Typical hazard in Southeast China
Modeling rainfall impact on travel time
System interdependency
Accumulated effects of rainfall impact
Travel delay analysis and estimation
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
3. Concept Model
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
4. Rainfall Impact
mm
8
Hourly Precipitation 10%
Hourly Rainfall Impact
Rainfall impact
6
8%
4 6%
2 4%
2%
0 Precipitation
1 2 3 0%
Time series
1 Time 2
series 3
Assumption
(Uniform distributed)
1.8%
mm Sub-hourly Rainfall Impact
0.7 Sub-hourly Precipitation 1.6%
0.6 1.4%
0.5 1.2%
0.4 1.0%
0.8%
0.3
0.6%
0.2
0.4%
0.1 0.2%
0 0.0%
1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9
Time Series
Time Series
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
5. Recovery Process & Impact Propagation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Traffic flow direction
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
7. Data & Process - Precipitation
Precipitation Data
Hourly precipitation intensity
6-hourly precipitation intensity
Spatial interpolation of Precipitation
Inverse Distance Weight Method (IDWM)
Ordinary Kriging Method (OKM)
Meteorological IDWM OKM
Station No. MAE MSE MAE MSE
59287 5.77 107.48 6.09 102.77
59478 5.00 56.61 4.98 56.15
59271 5.57 113.66 6.70 144.37
59462 4.23 40.27 5.07 52.47
Mean 5.14 79.50 5.71 88.94
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
8. Data & Process – Travel time
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
9. Model Result Analysis
12:02:18 AM
Passenger Cars
12:02:01 AM
12:01:44 AM
12:01:26 AM
Travel Time
12:01:09 AM
Error
12:00:52 AM
Upper Bound of 95% confidence Interval
Lower Bound of 95% confidence Interval
12:00:35 AM Mean Travel Time
Model Result
12:00:17 AM
12:00:00 AM
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337
Hourly Time Series
68.46% estimated travel time of 241 records are in the range
of 95% confidence interval
Relative error value varies from -19.23%~24.15%
mean value of overestimated relative error is 5.71%
mean value of underestimated relative error is 6.73%
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
10. Model Result Analysis
12:02:36 AM
Trucks
12:02:18 AM
12:02:01 AM
12:01:44 AM
Travel Time
12:01:26 AM
Error
12:01:09 AM
Upper Bound of 95% confidence Interval
12:00:52 AM Lower Bound of 95% confidence Interval
Mean Travel Time
12:00:35 AM
Model Result
12:00:17 AM
12:00:00 AM
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337
Hourly Time Series
59.61% estimated travel time of 307 records are in the range
of 95% confidence interval
Relative error value varies from -18.70%~26.51%
mean value of overestimated relative error is 5.98%
mean value of underestimated relative error is 6.00%
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland
11. Discussion & Conclusion
Discussion
Regional Travel Time Estimation
Time Penalty Risk Analysis
Probability Distribution of Precipitation
Accurate disaster character data in high temporal-resolution
Conclusion
Regional highway network travel time estimation in the
condition of adverse weather
Fast evaluation of disaster impact immediately after disaster
Indirect loss assessment of transportation by disastrous events
Extended study of disastrous events impact on integrated CI
systems
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"
26-30 August 2012
Davos, Switzerland