A visual summary of the output of the global research conducted among a panel of experts on how to best survive and thrive in the economic crisis

1. Genesis
Management Consulting
Surviving and thriving in the global
economic crisis
Decisions, strategy and leadership.
Genesis
Management Consulting

2. Genesis
Management Consulting
Surviving and thriving in the global economic crisis
Decisions, strategy and leadership.
In the latter half of 2011, a small global group of experts formed part of a digital workshop
to consider the types of challenges that individuals and organisations face when taking
strategic decisions in the current global economic crisis. The objective is to provide some
actionable advice for people who are looking for ways to lead their organisation through
the challenge and to grasp the new opportunities that always abound in such
environments.
Executive Summary
Results of an expert panel survey
Research driven by
THOUGHTstream
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3. The one page summary … now read on for further details
Fundamental Massive Global economic Political Increasing
global changes uncertainty power shifts maneuvering unemployment
The result Shorter time- Reduced risk Internal Financial Haphazard
frames tolerance focus conservatism response
Impact on Challenges to intuitive Challenges to analytical Decision style
decision making approach approach changes required
Advice from the On: On: On:
Expert Panel Decision making Strategy Leadership
Process Careful Flexibility in
Positive vision
in place framing strategy
Know
External Challenge Personal
what you
views assumptions commitment
know
Use Holistic,
Innovate and Communicate
available systems
disrupt widely
tools view

4. The impact of the crisis
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5. The impact of the crisis: massive uncertainty
The major impact of the economic crisis has been one of leaving individuals,
organisations and governments facing massive uncertainty – with the majority of
people insufficiently prepared or lacking the experience to handle this uncertainty.
Massive uncertainty
Uncertain demand
Changing consumer spending patterns
Economic uncertainty (all levels)
John Gilbert’s sculpture of
“symbol of uncertainty”
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6. The impact of the crisis: global economic power shift
Global economic power shifts
Acceleration of growth differentials
eg BRICS and developed economy
Economic and power
eg Northern and Southern Europe
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7. The impact of the crisis: political maneuvering
Political maneuvering
Government and business
Political parties
Left versus right
Nation states
Unions and State
Regulators and everyone!
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8. The impact of the crisis: increasing unemployment (not universal)
A vicious cycle
Debt to unemployment to
debt!
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9. How business has responded
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10. Business response: shortening time-frames
Shorter time-frames
Shortening time-frames:
Planning
Decision-making
Strategy
Operations
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11. Business response: reduced risk tolerance
Increased risk
sensitivity
Reduced risk tolerance
Less long-term investments
More short-term actions
(eg cut R&D spend)
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12. Business response: increased internal focus
Increased internal
focus
Controllable items
Cost cutting
Fixed costs to flexible costs
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13. Business response: cash hoarding and financial conservatism
Hoarding cash
Reduced funding available, so ..
Holding on to cash
Conservative use of cash
Slow creditors payments
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14. Business response: increased regulations of financial services
Increased FSI regulations
Financial services regulations
Capital requirements and risk
Separating investment business
Bonuses and pay structures
Forced mergers
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15. Business response: haphazard response to the crisis
Haphazard response to a
range of pressures
React to symptoms
Non systemic reaction
Fire-fighting
Patching the leaks
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16. Impact on decision types
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17. Impact on decision types: highly analytical approach
Decision styles are stressed within the economic crisis…
Data dependent
Changing, complex environment – what
are “the facts”?
Fundamental changes taking place
Time-consuming
Advice: “Know what you know; and know what you don’t know”
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18. Impact on decision types: intuitive approach
Decision styles are stressed within the economic crisis…
Intuition =
judgment + experience
Relevancy of experience
Past patterns offer no clues
Unforeseeable events
Blurred border between emotions and
intuition
Advice: “Don’t confuse intuition with emotion”
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19. Surviving and thriving in the crisis:
critical success factors
Decision making
Strategy
Leadership
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20. Surviving and thriving in the crisis:
critical success factors
Decision making
Strategy
Leadership
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21. Decision making in the crisis: decision making process
Robust decision making
process
Crisis decision making process in place
before decisions are necessary
Steps
Information
Who’s involved
Final judgment
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22. Decision making in the crisis: framing the decision
Clarity on decision
boundaries
Frame the decision correctly
What are the boundaries?
What are we not deciding?
Example:
Are we deciding on making a potential acquisition? OR
Are we deciding whether acquisition is the correct strategy?
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23. Decision making in the crisis: systemic view of the context
Take a holistic and systemic
view of the context
What are the issues?
How are they inter-related?
What are the consequences of action?
How will players react?
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24. Decision making in the crisis: know what you know
Know what you know; and
know what you don’t know. “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we
now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns.
These are things we do not know we don’t know.”
United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld
What are the boundaries of our
knowledge?
Are there critical unknowns?
Are “the facts” really “the facts”
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25. Decision making in the crisis: get external views
Seek external and different
views
The executive do not know everything!
Distributors, regulators, consultants,
experts, salesmen, machine operators,
customers …. all may enrich the
perspective.
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26. Decision making in the crisis: use tools and technologies
Use available tools and
technology
Decision process facilitation
Data analytic tools
Thinking-support tools
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27. Surviving and thriving in the crisis:
critical success factors
Decision making
Strategy
Leadership
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28. Strategy in the crisis: build in flexibility
Create flexibility in your
strategy
Options thinking
Recognise the decision sequence
Scenario analysis
Bayesian analysis
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29. Strategy in the crisis: challenge assumptions
Challenge assumptions and
the status quo
Separate assumptions from facts
Understand your mental models
Recognise which changes are
fundamental and which are cyclical
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30. Strategy in the crisis: innovate and disrupt
Change + technology
= opportunity
Be opportunity seeking
Challenge existing business models
Encourage innovation
Stimulate creativity
Experiment and prototype
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31. Surviving and thriving in the crisis:
critical success factors
Decision making
Strategy
Leadership
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32. Leadership in the crisis: promote a positive vision
Promote a positive vision
Maintain an optimistic perspective
Do NOT hide from the facts
Paint a picture of the future
The crisis will end
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33. Leadership in the crisis: commitment to values
Demonstrate a personal
commitment to values and ethics
Share the pain
Demonstrate own commitment
Lead by example
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34. Leadership in the crisis: support and align
Support and align
Align activities, incentives and performance
No room for passengers
Remain human
Support the “survivors”
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35. Leadership in the crisis: communicate widely
Communicate widely in all
directions
Share the risks and difficulties
Encourage two-way communication
Keep all stakeholders informed
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36. Summary and conclusion Detailed report
available at
Genesis web-site
On decision making
 Ensure a robust strategic decision-making process
 Take care to frame the decision correctly
 Hold a systems view of the context and issues
 Understand what is known and unknown
 Get external inputs
 Use the available tools and technologies
On strategy:
 Develop flexible strategies that are opportunity-seeking.
 Challenge assumptions and status quo
 Innovate and disrupt
On leadership:
 Promote a positive vision
 Demonstrate personal commitment to values and ethics
 Communicate widely in both directions
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37. Take a step back …
Are you doing all you can to survive the crisis?
Have you given enough thought to the opportunities that are present?
Speak to us at Genesis Management Consulting
about how we might help you to take a few days
away from “the frontline” and really work out how
your organisation is going to SURVIVE and THRIVE
in the global economic crisis.
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38. Benefits of the workshop
Survive
Motivate
Communicate
Show leadership
Increase range of inputs
Take back control of your destiny
Find the new opportunities
Obtain commitment
Look externally
Risk test
Thrive
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39. Genesis
Management Consulting
For further information, contact:
Simon Gifford
email: sgifford@genesis-esp.com
web: www.genesis-esp.com
blog: www.genesismc.co.uk/blog
Madrid Office: Calle Concepción Jerónima, 22 London Office: Falcor House
Madrid 28012 68 Crockford Park Road
Madrid Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 2LU
Spain United Kingdom
Telephone +34 607950562 Telephone +44 7914622467
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40. Research methodology
 A global expert panel was compiled and, through the use of a web-based
software tool over a period of 6 weeks, an interactive workshop was held. The
panel was asked to (independently) list the key issues around strategic
decision making under the current crisis conditions. These ideas were shared,
grouped and converged into themes. Finally, the panel prioritised the issues in
terms of importance.
 The members of the panel were selected on the basis of their experience in
decision-making and their general business experience. Furthermore, to
achieve diversity in responses, they were chosen from different geographic
locations: United Kingdom, Spain, Israel, Thailand, United Arab Emirates,
South Africa and the USA. Their names and roles appear on the page that
follows.
 A web-based, facilitation tool (THOUGHTstream) was used to manage the
process of input collection, issue grouping, convergence, prioritization and
reporting
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41. Expert panel
Name Organisation Address
Keith Ten Brook Decision Innovation, USA Keith.tenbrook@decisioninnovation.com
Bill Cabiro Strat-Wise Consulting, USA Bill.cabiro@gmail.com
Thomas L. Doorley Sage Partners, USA Tdoorley@sagepartners.net
Gary DeGregorio Decision Innovation, USA Gary.degregorio@decisioninnovation.com
Nicky Bicket The Katale Partnership, UK Nbicket@katale.co.uk
Eulogio Naz SCS (and others), Spain Eulogionaz@gmail.com
Jenny Sutton RfP Company, Asia Jenny@rfpcompany.com
David Brock Ben Gurion University, Israel; Dmb.ios@gmail.com
Oxford Said, UK
Ianna Contardo SP Jain Centre of Management, UAE Ianna.contardo@spjain.org
Rhonda Stewart Stratfund Consulting, SA Rhonda@stratfund.co.za
Goodnews Cadogan Village Leadership, SA Goodnews@villageofleaders.com
Project directed by Simon Gifford of Genesis Management Consulting Limited
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