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U.S. Industrial
MarketView
Q2 2012                                                                                            CBRE Global Research and Consulting


      AVAILABILITY RATE                    LEASE RATE                       NET ABSORPTION                    CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS
      13.2%                                $5.46                            26.4 MSF                          5.2 MSF



THE FIGHT FOR CLASS A SPACE ACCELERATES

 Executive Summary

 •	 Despite a lackluster
    macroeconomic environment,
    industrial leasing velocity has
    improved as users try to lock-in
    currently favorable rent and lease
    terms.

 •	 Industrial demand will soften over
    the next several quarters, in line
    with slowing U.S. and global
    growth, a faltering manufacturing
    sector and shrinking international
    trade.	                                     INDUSTRIAL LEASING ACTIVITY:
 •	 User demand for Class A space will
                                                More active than underlying
    continue to drive down availability         economic trends would suggest
    rates, leading to upward pressure
    on lease rates. Construction activity       Despite a number of major global              Tenants are upgrading, relocating from
    is back, including both build-to-suit       economic headwinds and a U.S. economy         Class B to Class A space, but options are
    and speculative projects across             that is fast losing momentum, industrial      getting tighter. Manufacturing space
    some of the nation’s largest                leasing remained surprisingly active across   requirements were also on the rise,
    industrial markets.	                        most markets during the past quarter. The     particularly in the southeastern and
                                                U.S. industrial market continued to show      northeastern U.S. markets, due in part to
 •	 Low interest rates and the limited          signs of recovery, with the national          the U.S. “manufacturing renaissance.”
    supply of Class A industrial product        industrial availability rate dropping by 20
    for sale will continue to drive cap         basis points (bps) to 13.2% in the second     The prospect for industrial demand over
    rates down in the near term.	               quarter of 2012. Occupiers have begun         the next few months will likely be flat,
                                                to move off the sidelines, seeking longer     however, given weakening headline
 •	 Industrial real estate performance          term leases to take advantage of lower        economic indicators. U.S. economic data
    continues to recover as signaled by         competitive rents, which are expected to      has been disappointing, leading to further
    the NCREIF Property Index.                  rise. “Extend and blend” user transactions    downward revisions to growth. The overall
    Industrial real estate delivered an         continue, but landlords are getting pricing   economy, consumer spending,
    annualized total return of 13.4%            power back as industrial market conditions    international trade and the broader
    during Q1 2012, in line with the            improve. A number of industrial users are     manufacturing sector are among the key
    overall index.                              also considering the ownership option         drivers of industrial demand, with all
                                                given record-low interest rates.              pointing to a soft patch through at least
                                                                                              the next quarter.
                                                Warehouse demand was the main driver
                                                for spaces larger than100,000 sq. ft.
Q2 2012




                                Figure 1: U.S. Economy Downshifts                                                                                                                                   Figure 2: U.S. International Trade Activity

                                     Annual Percent Change (%)                                                                                                                                                 Total Trade ($ Billions)                                                            Annual Percent Change (%)
                               4.0                                                                                                                                                              $6,000                                                                                                                         6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Forecast
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                               3.5                                                                                                                                                              $5,000                                                                                                                         5%
                                                                                                                                     Forecast
                               3.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                $4,000
                               2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3%
                               2.0                                                                                                                                                              $3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2%
                               1.5                                                                                                                                                              $2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1%
                               1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                $1,000                                                                                                                         0%
                               0.5
                               0.0                                                                                                                                                                       $0                                                                                                                    1%




                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2011Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2011Q2
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                                                                                                                                                                                                               2013Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2013Q2
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                                     2010Q1
                                              2010Q2
                                                       2010Q3
                                                                2010Q4
                                                                         2011Q1
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                                                                                           2011Q3
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                                                                                                                                            2012Q4
                                                                                                                                                     2013Q1
                                                                                                                                                              2013Q2
                                                                                                                                                                       2013Q3
                                                                         Consumer Spending                                          Real GDP                                     2013Q4                                                            Total Trade (L)                         Growth % (R)
                                                                                                  Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012                                                                                                               Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012




                               The U.S. economy and industrial sector have begun to feel the brunt of the slowdown in global growth, which originated in
                               Europe but has now spread to Latin America and Asia. U.S. trade, which is the sum of imports and exports, slowed during the
                               second quarter and is expected to actually decline in the third quarter.



                                Figure 3: ISM Surprised to the Downside (ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index [Diffusion index, SA])


                                                                         70

                                                                         60

                                                                         50

                                                                         40

                                                                         30

                                                                         20

                                                                         10

                                                                          0
                                                                              M1 2009
                                                                                        M3 2009
                                                                                                    M5 2009
                                                                                                              M7 2009
                                                                                                                         M9 2009
                                                                                                                                     M11 2009
                                                                                                                                                M1 2010
                                                                                                                                                          M3 2010
                                                                                                                                                                    M5 2010
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                                                                                                                                                                                          M9 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                    M11 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                               M1 2011
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 M11 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            M1 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      M3 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                M5 2012




           2


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Institute for Supply Management
Q2 2012
The ISM manufacturing index, a great          announcements of new manufacturing             facilitate the transportation of oil and
demand-side proxy for industrial real         plants, especially in the transportation       gas for exports.
estate, came in well below expectations.      sector, in the southern U.S. markets.
The June ISM manufacturing index              These companies have been drawn by             The expansion of e-retailers continues to
slumped to 49.7, the first sub-50             competitive labor costs, the availability      fuel the need for warehouse and




                                                                                                                                           U.S. Industrial | MarketView
reading since July 2009. The forward-         of real estate at competitive rates, and       distribution space. Amazon, the leader in
looking details of the survey were also       the availability of a skilled and highly       e-retailing, continues to push for larger
weak, with both new orders and export         productive workforce. Part of the              facilities close to large metropolitan
orders coming in below 50 as global           re-shoring of manufacturing to the U.S.        areas to decrease delivery times. As
headwinds appear to be exerting greater       has been driven by the needs of the            traditional retailers grow their e-retailer
pressure on the U.S. industrial sector.       consumers, the timely delivery of product      strategies, it will likely increase demand
The dip in the ISM suggests that the          to the consumer and the demand for             for warehouse space and shrink the
downshift in the manufacturing sector         custom products such as a specific color       need for traditional bricks-and-mortar
may be accelerating. The manufacturing        or design. Although with the recent            retail, which is typically 10 to 20 times
data had been weak, but until now the         increase in demand, manufacturers will         the cost of a warehouse facility.
ISM index had looked better than either       increase the utilization rates of existing
manufacturing output or durable goods         facilities before seeking additional
orders. The ISM survey’s details suggest      space. Recent announcements include: 	
that the factory slowdown will continue
through at least the next few months.         •	 Airbus’ new assembly plant—to be
                                                built in Mobile, Alabama—is
Domestic demand for local goods has             scheduled to be completed in 2015, a
also decreased over the past few months         $600 million investment.	
due to the continued struggles in the
housing sector and weaker-than-               •	 Ford is adding 1,800 jobs in Louisville,
anticipated job growth. A silver lining for     Kentucky, adding a third shift in the fall
consumer spending and the U.S.                  of 2012.	
economy, however, has been the decline
in commodity and energy prices globally.      •	 Magna Seating of America, Inc. is
In the U.S., it is estimated that a one-        building a 140,000-sq.-ft. plant in
cent decline in retail gasoline prices          Shepherdsville, Kentucky, adding 450
equates to roughly $1 billion in                new jobs in 2012.	
economy-wide tax cuts. The lower price
of oil will provide a floor under             •	 Asahi Forge, a Japanese automotive
consumer spending and likely cause              supplier, is adding a second
domestic consumption to increase                manufacturing plant in Richmond,
moderately as consumers now have a              Kentucky, in 2012.	
higher level of disposable income. The
challenge remains with both consumer          •	 Nissan will increase production for the
and business confidence levels; this has        new Sentra, adding 1,000 new jobs in
resulted in cautious spending and               Mississippi.	
investment from both sides.
                                              •	 GM to add 800 jobs, adding a third
Longer-term, however, we expect the             shift to its truck plant in Texas in 2012.
drivers of industrial demand to shift to a
more positive trajectory given secular        The domestic energy sector is having a
changes in the global economy. U.S.           marginal influence on the industrial
manufacturing companies continue to           sector as well, but this will likely change
benefit from the relatively lower value of    with the further development in shale, as
the U.S.dollar. Accelerating wage rates       existing plants are adapted to                                                                         3
in Asia and higher transportation costs       accommodate the processing and
are also fostering a “manufacturing           transport of the new materials. New
renaissance” in the U.S. Over the past        plants are also being built in ports to
few months there have been a few
Q2 2012




                                Figure 4: U.S. Industrial Supply and Demand


                                                          Completions and Absorption (MSF)                                                                                                                               Availability Rate (%)
                                                    80                                                                                                                                                                                                  16%
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                                                    60                                                                                                                                                                                                  15%
                                                    40                                                                                                                                                                                                  14%
                                                    20                                                                                                                                                                                                  13%
                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                                                 12%
                                                    -20                                                                                                                                                                                                 11%
                                                    -40                                                                                                                                                                                                 10%
                                                    -60                                                                                                                                                                                                 9%
                                                    -80                                                                                                                                                                                                 8%
                                                   -100                                                                                                                                                                                                 7%
                                                          2007Q2
                                                                   2007Q3
                                                                            2007Q4
                                                                                     2008Q1
                                                                                              2008Q2
                                                                                                       2008Q3
                                                                                                                2008Q4
                                                                                                                         2009Q1
                                                                                                                                  2009Q2
                                                                                                                                           2009Q3
                                                                                                                                                    2009Q4
                                                                                                                                                             2010Q1
                                                                                                                                                                      2010Q2
                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                         2010Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2011Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2011Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2011Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2011Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2012Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2012Q2
                                                                                                       Completions (L)                        Absorption (L)                            Availability Rate (R)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors




                               USERS UPGRADING SPACE
                               Despite the lackluster economic                                                                                                                                                availability rate at 13.2%, the scarcity of
                               environment, industrial space demand                                                                                                                                           available space in such buildings means
                               has been relatively stable. Industrial                                                                                                                                         that Class A industrial availabilities
                               users continue to favor higher quality,                                                                                                                                        continue to shrink, in some cases at the
                               newer space that can increase                                                                                                                                                  expense of older industrial buildings.
                               productivity and lower the real estate
                               cost. Companies are reviewing
                               everything from their current locations,
                               technology, and plant layout of
                               equipment to increase production
                               efficiencies. In some cases occupiers are
                               moving into newer facilities and reducing
                               space, compared to their prior premises,
                               due to the increase in storage capacity
                               with higher stacking capability and a
                               more efficient plant layout. This is driving
                               the demand by tenants to trade up to
                               newer, more modern Class A industrial
                               facilities. These buildings typically have
                               higher ceilings, super-flat floors and
           4                   have been built in the last ten years.
                               Even with the national industrial
Q2 2012
                                                                                                                                         U.S. Industrial | MarketView
HERE COMES THE SUPPLY
The lack of available product required       11 million sq. ft., and is on track to      industrial availability rates, with available
by users is placing upward pressure on       exceed the industrial new supply            Class A industrial space virtually non-
lease rates for the best space; however,     completed in 2011. Most of this new         existent. Due to the short supply of new
lease rates for average product remain       space consists of Class A design-build      product, many of these projects are
flat. In primary markets, rents for newer    projects, although an increase in           often pre-leased. In Atlanta, despite
facilities are approaching replacement       speculative construction projects across    many available warehouse options, a
levels and spurring new development.         the country is emerging. Pockets of         new 630,000-sq.-ft. speculative project
New construction continues to increase       speculative construction activity are       is under construction, underscoring the
across key markets due to the drop in        occurring in Northern Virginia,             demand for state-of-the-art large
availability rates in 2012 and the lack of   Indianapolis, the Inland Empire, Orange     warehouse and distribution space.
newer, Class A industrial space. New         County, Salt Lake City and Atlanta. Many
construction for 2012 has totaled nearly     of these markets have single-digit


THE PANAMA CANAL FACTOR
The Panama Canal has also impacted           accommodate the post-panamax ship is        inland remains in western ports. In the
the U.S. industrial market with respect to   Norfolk. The Port Authority of New York     near term, it remains more cost effective
competition between East Coast versus        and New Jersey has committed $1             and quicker for shippers to offload in
West Coast ports. The race continues in      billion to raise the Bayonne Bridge,        western ports and transport goods via
the eastern U.S. gateway markets such        which connects Bayonne, New Jersey,         rail to major markets such as Chicago.
as New York, New Jersey, Norfolk, and        with Staten Island, New York, by 64 feet    Eastern ports will likely benefit from
Miami to invest capital in preparing for     to allow larger ships to pass. Port         increased container traffic from ships
the completion of the Panama Canal           spending will increase as we near the       using the Suez Canal and expanding
expansion. Most of the investment            completion of the Panama Canal              markets such as Brazil to the south.
continues to be for dredging projects,       expansion in 2014.                                                                                    5
which will allow the ports to
accommodate larger ships as well as the      The investment benefits for eastern ports
need to increase the clearance height of     will be minimal in the short term, as the
bridges. The only port that can currently    transportation infrastructure for goods
INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL MARKETS
Q2 2012




                               Domestic and cross-border investors                     trends signal improving transaction                        to focus on Class A and/or value-add
                               continue to closely monitor industrial                  volume, according to Real Capital                          properties in primary markets. Record-
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                               sector fundamentals given favorable                     Analytics. Over the first five months of                   low interest rates, combined with greater
                               leasing velocity and the lack of Class A                2012, industrial transactions totaled                      institutional capital than available supply
                               options for newer space. Stronger rental                $10.3 billion, a 13% increase over                         of properties for sale, continue to drive
                               recovery is being used in underwriting                  year-ago levels. Interest in industrial                    down cap rates, especially for better
                               industrial acquisitions. Rising sales                   property has resurfaced, as investors                      assets.
                               volume reflects the surge in investor                   increasingly eye portfolio transactions.
                               interest. The industrial capital market                 Institutional investors, however, continue



                                Figure 5: Institutional Capital Targeting Industrial Assets

                                                       Industrial Transaction Volume ($ Billions)                                                            Cap Rates (%)
                                                 $12                                                                                                                         8.8%
                                                                                                                                                                             8.6%
                                                 $10
                                                                                                                                                                             8.4%
                                                  $8                                                                                                                         8.2%
                                                                                                                                                                             8.0%
                                                  $6
                                                                                                                                                                             7.8%
                                                  $4                                                                                                                         7.6%
                                                                                                                                                                             7.4%
                                                  $2
                                                                                                                                                                             7.2%
                                                  $0                                                                                                                         7.0%
                                                       Jan
                                                       Feb
                                                       Mar
                                                       Apr
                                                       May
                                                       Jun
                                                        Jul
                                                       Aug
                                                       Sep
                                                        Oct
                                                       Nov
                                                       Dec
                                                       Jan
                                                       Feb
                                                       Mar
                                                       Apr
                                                       May
                                                       Jun
                                                        Jul
                                                       Aug
                                                       Sep
                                                        Oct
                                                       Nov
                                                       Dec
                                                       Jan
                                                       Feb
                                                       Mar
                                                       Apr
                                                       May
                                                       2010                                                   2011                                    2012
                                                                                            Industrial Transactions (L)   Average Cap Rates (R)

                                                                                                                                                      Source: Real Capital Analytics

                               Industrial real estate performance                      western region of the U.S. also
                               continues to recover as signaled by the                 dominates the market value of industrial
                               NCREIF Property Index. Industrial real                  properties in the NPI and as such, the
                               estate delivered an annualized total                    solid performance of industrial markets
                               return of 13.4% during Q1 2012, in line                 in the west continue to drive overall
                               with the overall index. This was the                    industrial performance.
                               second highest return, trailing only the
                               multi-housing sector. Much of the return
                               has been due to a surge in appreciation
                               returns that have been driven by cap rate
           6                   compression earlier this year. The
REGIONAL
Q2 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q2 2012
                                                                                                                                             Figure 6: 25 Largest Industrial Markets - Q2 2012

                               OVERVIEW:
                               SUPER-REGIONAL
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  U.S. Industrial | MarketView
                               DISTRIBUTION
                               CENTERS                                                                                                                SEATTLE
                                                                                                                                                      249,079 SF
                               OUTPERFORM                                                                                                             10.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DETROIT
                                                                                                                                                      $6.49
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               511,766 SF
                               The national availability rate masks                                                                                                                                         MILWAUKEE                          11.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             CHICAGO
                               regional performance. According to                                                                                                                                               226,563 SF                     $4.47                               NEW JERSEY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1,188,170 SF                                          NORTHERN
                               second quarter figures, west coast                                                                                                                       MINNEAPOLIS/                11.8%                      CLEVELAND
                                                                                                                                                                                             ST. PAUL                        9.7%                                                  409,442 SF
                               markets such as Los Angeles (6.8%) and                                                                                                                                                $3.76                     290,783 SF
                                                                                                                                                                                               326,839 SF                    $3.99                                                 10.1%
                               Orange County (7.4%) are reporting                                                                                                                                                                              8.3%
                               lower industrial availability rates than                                                                                                                            10.2%                                       $4.59                               $6.11 NEW JERSEY
                               any other market. By contrast, east coast                                                                                                                            $4.70                                      COLUMBUS                                  CENTRAL
                               markets such as Stamford (25.9%),                                                                                                                                                                               208,190 SF                                395,459 SF
                               Boston (20.9%) and Atlanta (18.8%)                                                                                                                                                                              12.6%                                     10.4%
                               report among the highest industrial                                                                                                                                             KANSAS                          $3.04                                     $4.37
                               availability rates in the nation. Industrial                                                                                                                 DENVER             CITY
                                                                                                                                             SAN JOSE                                                          233,654 SF                   CINCINNATI                           PHILADELPHIA
                               markets in older east coast cities suffer                                                                                                                    223,929 SF
                                                                                                                                             243,759 SF   INLAND                                               12.3%                        267,221 SF                           401,433 SF
                               from a higher degree of older and                                                                                                                            7.8%
                                                                                                                                             13.5%        EMPIRE                                               $4.53                        9.5%                                 12.5%
                               obsolete product.                                                                                                                                            $6.21
                                                                                                                                             $11.42       403,354 SF                                                                        $3.79                                $3.86
                                                                                                                                                          11.8%                                             ST. LOUIS           INDIANAPOLIS
                               From a regional perspective, the largest                                                   LOS                                                                                                                                                    BALTIMORE
                                                                                                                    ANGELES                               $4.08                                                222,407 SF       238,848 SF
                               increases in absorption occurred in                                                                                                                                                                                                               153,169 SF
                               Chicago, the Inland Empire and New                                                     993,073 SF                                                                                   14.9%        9.1%
                                                                                                                                                      ORANGE                                                                                                                     15.5%
                               Jersey, respectively, and were mostly                                                       6.8%                                        PHOENIX                                      $4.34       $4.28                                                                                                 MARKET
                                                                                                                                                      COUNTY                                                                                                                     $4.79
                               driven by the demand in Class A                                                             $6.52                                       275,326 SF                                                          ATLANTA                                                                                    STOCK (SF x 1000)
                                                                                                                                                      252,457 SF                                            DALLAS/
                               industrial warehouse and distribution                                                                                                   15.0%                                                               551,590 SF                                                                                 AVAILABILITY RATE
                                                                                                                                                      7.4%                                                  FT. WORTH
                               space.                                                                                       SAN DIEGO                                  $6.84                                                               18.8%                                                                                      NNN ASKING RENT
                                                                                                                                                      $7.56                                                 721,121 SF
                                                                                                                                200,759 SF                                                                                                 $3.29
                                                                                                                                    15.0%                                                                   13.4%
                                                                                                                                    $10.32                                                                  $3.70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                HOUSTON

                               NATIONAL QUICK STATS                                                                                                                                                             448,767 SF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                9.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200,000,000 SF

                                                                                                                                                                                                                $3.91
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,000,000,000 SF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MIAMI
                                Q2 2012                                           Current               QoQ                 YoY                                                                                                                                      211,710 SF
                                Availability Rate                                13.2%                   i                    i                                                                                                                                      9.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $4.68
                                Lease Rate                                        $5.46                  h                    h

                                Net Absorption*                                 26.4 MSF                 i                    i

                                Construction Completions                         5.2 MSF                 i                    i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: CBRE Research
           7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we                8
                               *The arrows indicate a trend and do not represent a positive or negative value for the underlying statistic                                                                                                                 have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be
                                (e.g., net absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive trend over the time period).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.
NEW JERSEY
Q2 2012




                               Industrial availability in Central New       York and New Jersey remains strong,           Three new construction projects
                               Jersey remained flat at 10.4%, whereas       adding to the demand for warehouse            amounting to 1.17 million sq. ft. broke
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                               availability decreased 40 bps to 10.1%       and distribution space. In the northern       ground during Q2 2012. More than half
                               in Northern New Jersey during the same       portion of New Jersey, the Meadowlands        of these new starts are being built on
                               period. The average asking lease rate        submarket continues to attract significant    speculative development and the recent
                               for industrial property in New Jersey        tenant demand with its high                   increase in new construction is pushing
                               increased during the second quarter for      concentration of industrial space in close    land prices higher.
                               the first time in the past four years. The   proximity to New York City.
                               state’s asking lease rate is still $1.07
                               below its peak rate set in Q2 2008,          As compared to just a few quarters ago,
                               although that gap is expected to tighten,    industrial construction activity in New
                               especially for Class A industrial space.     Jersey is picking up, due to increasing
                                                                            demand and limited number of options
                               Central New Jersey continues to attract      for large, modern industrial users. Four
                               the majority of demand for new space,        industrial buildings were completed in
                               mostly consisting of third party logistics   Q2 2012: three build-to-suit projects
                               as well as consumer products                 totaling 652,155 sq. ft. and one
                               companies. Activity at the ports of New      101,600-sq.-ft. speculative project.




                               GREATER LOS ANGELES
                               The Greater Los Angeles industrial           Class A distribution centers are in high      both manufacturing companies and
                               availability rate fell to 6.8%, a 10 bps     demand by logistics companies and             wholesalers. The most active size range
                               decrease from the previous quarter; this     retailers looking to expand distribution      is between 50,000 sq. ft. and 75,000
                               represents one of the lowest rates in the    capabilities. Activity levels are very high   sq. ft.—in fact, approximately 63% of
                               U.S. The increased volume of port            in the 100,000-sq.-ft. category. The bulk     Q2 2012 activity was between 10,000
                               activity has created an even greater         of construction activity in Southern          sq. ft. and 100,000 sq. ft. Although
                               need for distribution space for larger       California is also occurring in the Inland    construction is fairly active in Los
                               and more modern distribution facilities      Empire, with 7.3 million sq. ft. currently    Angeles County, with 1.8 million sq. ft.,
                               of over 100,000 sq. ft. In addition, there   under construction (the highest figure        the market has not experienced the
                               has been an increase in demand for           since pre-recession), of which 38%—or         same growth that the Inland Empire is
                               industrial space under 50,000 sq. ft.,       2.8 million sq. ft.—is speculative            witnessing. However, during the next six
                               mainly coming from small start-up            construction.                                 to 12 months, the lack of Class A
                               companies.                                                                                 industrial space will likely spur an
                                                                            In Los Angeles County, Commerce,              increased volume of construction,
                               The Inland Empire is dominating market       South Bay and San Fernando have been          including speculative projects.
                               activity in Southern California, as large    particularly strong, with demand from




           9
DALLAS




                                                                                                                                                      Q2 2012
The industrial availability rate remained     Lease rates are starting to increase,
flat in Dallas at 13.4% for Q2 2012.          primarily due to a shrinking availability




                                                                                                                                                      U.S. Industrial | MarketView
                                                                                           Figure 7:
Most of the recent demand has been            of space. Most new construction has          Industrial Market Snapshot
from retailers for warehouse and              consisted of build-to-suit activity. Two
distribution buildings. Home Depot            speculative projects were recently
                                                                                           Lowest Availability Rates (%)
recently occupied a large block of            announced: approximately 661,000 sq.
space, and Kohl’s will be opening a           ft. in South Dallas from ProLogis; and       LOS ANGELES METRO                          6.8
facility later this year. The most active     529,000 sq. ft. in Northwest Dallas          ORANGE COUNTY                              7.4
submarket, Great Southwest/Arlington,         from IDI.
posted the largest amount of absorption                                                    WESTCHESTER COUNTY                         7.7
in the first half of 2012, at 2.8 million                                                  DENVER                                     7.8
sq. ft. total.
                                                                                           CLEVELAND                                  8.3

CHICAGO                                                                                    Highest Availability Rates (%)
                                                                                           STAMFORD                                  25.9
Chicago’s industrial market continues to      For new industrial supply, two projects      BOSTON                                    20.9
recover, with the availability rate           broke ground in the second quarter: a
decreasing to 9.7%, a change of 40 bps        239,000-sq.-ft. build-to-suit for FedEx,     AUSTIN                                    19.4
from the previous quarter. Three out of       and a 604,000-sq.-ft. speculative            ATLANTA                                   18.8
the top 10 deals were paper-related           project, both of which are in the Far SW
companies (Kimberly Clark at 716,318          suburban submarket. In addition, there
                                                                                           WALNUT CREEK                              18.5
sq. ft.; Domtar Paper with 453,364 sq.        are six projects currently under                                               Source: CBRE Research
ft.; and International Paper at 316,000       construction totaling 1.9 million sq. ft.,
sq. ft.). Machinery, metal and durable        of which two are speculative projects
goods also had strong showings during         while the other four are build-to-suit.
                                                                                           Figure 8: Largest Quarterly
the second quarter. The Far SW                The last time Chicago had this much
                                                                                           Decreases and Increases*
suburban market in Chicago (also              speculative construction was in 2008.
known as the I-55 corridor) dominated         An increase in demand is causing rental
leasing activity during Q2 2012, with         rates to increase marginally while
                                                                                           Decreases in Availability
more than 1.7 million sq. ft. of activity.    landlords are offering less tenant           COLUMBUS                                   -2.9
This accounted for 24% of all leasing         incentives and moving rents up for Class     DETROIT                                    -1.9
activity that occurred in Q2 2012. This       A industrial buildings.
submarket has newer big box product,                                                       ORLANDO                                    -1.8
lower lease rates and easy access to                                                       HARTFORD                                   -1.0
expressways, which will keep it in
tenants’ favor for the foreseeable future.                                                 BALTIMORE & STAMFORD                       -0.9

                                                                                           Increases in Availability
ATLANTA                                                                                    WESTCHESTER COUNTY                         1.7
                                                                                           WALNUT CREEK                               1.3
The industrial availability rate in Atlanta   for modern industrial buildings has
increased to 18.8%, a difference of 20        caused older product in the Fulton           SAN ANTONIO                                1.2
bps from the previous quarter. Demand         industrial market to lag due to the age      JACKSONVILLE                               1.0
for warehouse and distribution space          and obsolescence of older industrial                                                                         10
from third-party logistics firms has          buildings. New construction has been         LONG ISLAND                                0.8
increased. Bulk warehouse Class A             limited until now, with mostly build-to-                                     *Percentage point change
space in the core submarkets of               suit activity taking place in                                                  Source: CBRE Research
Northeast and South Atlanta continues         south Atlanta.
to be the most sought-after. The demand
Figure 9: Industrial Availability - Q2 2012
                                                                             NNN Asking Rate ($)                                                Availability Rate (%)
                               Market Region                Size Rank              Q2 12                              Q2 12                            Q1 12                            Q2 11
                               BALTIMORE                        29                  4.79                               15.5                             16.4                             17.8
Q2 2012




                               BOSTON                           30                  6.45                               20.9                             21.3                             23.1
                               HARTFORD                         41                  4.76                               14.9                             15.9                             17.2
                               LONG ISLAND                      44                  8.39                               14.3                             13.5                             15.0
                               MARYLAND SUBURBAN*               39                  8.06                               15.6                             16.2                             16.8
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                               NEW JERSEY CENTRAL               10                  4.37                               10.4                             10.4                             12.1
                               NEW JERSEY NORTHERN              7                   6.11                               10.1                             10.5                             10.0
                               NORFOLK                          38                  4.53                               12.6                             12.7                             11.4
                               PHILADELPHIA                     9                   3.86                               12.5                             12.7                             12.7
                               STAMFORD                         50                  7.00                               25.9                             26.8                             21.1
                               VIRGINIA NORTHERN*               42                 10.22                               15.3                             14.7                             15.9
                               WESTCHESTER COUNTY               51                 10.74                               7.7                               6.0                             4.5
                               East                                                                                   12.9                             13.2                             13.7
                               CHICAGO                         1                    3.99                               9.7                              10.1                             10.5
                               CINCINNATI                      14                   3.79                               9.5                              10.1                             10.2
                               CLEVELAND                       12                   4.59                               8.3                               8.5                             9.9
                               COLUMBUS                        24                   3.04                               12.6                             15.5                             16.1
                               DETROIT                         5                    4.47                               11.9                             13.8                             15.1
                               INDIANAPOLIS                    18                   4.28                               9.1                               9.3                             10.9
                               KANSAS CITY                     19                   4.53                               12.3                             12.3                             12.3
                               MILWAUKEE                       20                   3.76                               11.8                             11.1                             12.1
                               MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL            11                   4.70                               10.2                             10.9                             11.5
                               ST. LOUIS                       22                   4.34                               14.9                             15.1                             15.0
                               Midwest                                                                                10.7                             11.3                             12.0
                               ATLANTA                         4                    3.29                               18.8                             18.6                             19.2
                               AUSTIN                          43                   6.84                               19.4                             19.1                             22.0
                               DALLAS/FT. WORTH                3                    3.70                               13.4                             13.4                             14.7
                               FT. LAUDERDALE                  37                   6.63                               11.6                             11.1                             13.4
                               HOUSTON                         6                    3.91                               9.2                               9.3                             10.3
                               JACKSONVILLE                    36                   3.98                               16.5                             15.5                             14.7
                               MIAMI                           23                   4.68                               9.3                               9.2                             10.5
                               NASHVILLE                       28                   3.78                               15.6                             15.3                             15.1
                               ORLANDO                         34                   5.00                               17.5                             19.3                             19.5
                               PALM BEACH                      45                   6.44                               12.8                             13.3                             13.7
                               SAN ANTONIO                     48                   4.88                               16.7                             15.5                             17.8
                               TAMPA                           32                   5.02                               13.4                             13.5                             13.3
                               South                                                                                  14.0                             13.9                             14.9
                               ALBUQUERQUE                     46                  6.50                                12.0                             11.7                             11.4
                               DENVER                          21                  6.21                                7.8                               8.4                             9.2
                               INLAND EMPIRE                   8                   4.08                                11.8                             12.5                             12.2
                               LAS VEGAS                       35                  5.74                                13.5                             13.2                             11.4
                               LOS ANGELES METRO               2                   6.52                                6.8                               6.9                             7.4
                               OAKLAND                         31                  5.28                                9.2                               9.4                             10.3
                               ORANGE COUNTY                   15                  7.56                                7.4                               7.8                             8.5
                               PHOENIX                         13                  6.84                                15.0                             15.4                             16.2
                               PORTLAND                        26                  4.44                                9.7                               9.6                             10.5
                               SACRAMENTO                      27                  5.16                                16.8                             16.7                             16.0
                               SALT LAKE CITY                  33                  4.80                                8.7                               9.4                             9.3
                               SAN DIEGO                       25                  10.32                               15.0                             15.4                             16.2
                               SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA         40                  18.12                               9.5                               9.9                             9.3
      11                       SAN JOSE                        17                  11.42                               13.5                             13.7                             15.2
                               SEATTLE                         16                  6.49                                10.3                             10.7                             11.8
                               TUCSON                          47                  6.65                                15.5                             15.5                             12.7
                               WALNUT CREEK                    49                  7.20                                18.5                             17.2                             17.5
                               West                                                                                   10.4                             10.6                             11.1
                               UNITED STATES                                                                          13.2                             13.4                             14.0


                                                                                                                                   * Maryland Suburban and Virginia Northern represent Washington, DC area.
                                                                                           U.S. national figures provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA), all other figures compiled by CBRE Research
contacts
                               For more information about this U.S. Industrial MarketView, please contact:
Q2 2012




                               Edward J. Schreyer, SIOR                             Asieh Mansour, Ph.D.                                  James Costello
                               Executive Managing Director                          Head of Research, Americas and                        Managing Director, Head of Americas
U.S. Industrial | MarketView




                               Brokerage Services, Americas                         Senior Managing Director                              Investment, Consulting and Strategy,
                               CBRE                                                 CBRE Global Research and Consulting                   CBRE Global Research and Consulting
                               t: +1 214 863 3042                                   t: +1 415 772 0258                                    t: +1 617 912 5326
                               e: ed.schreyer@cbre.com                              e: asieh.mansour@cbre.com                             e: jim.costello@cbre.com
                                                                                    Follow Asieh on Twitter: @AsiehMansourCRE




                               Raymond Wong                                         Heather Edmonds                                       Pamela Murphy
                               Managing Director, COO and                           Director, Western U.S. Research Division,             Senior Vice President, Eastern
                               Industrial Specialist, Americas Research,            CBRE Global Research and Consulting                   and Central U.S. Research Divisions,
                               CBRE Global Research and Consulting                                                                        CBRE Global Research and Consulting
                               t: +1 416 815 2353                                   t: +1 909 418 2090                                    t: +1 212 984 8004
                               e: raymond.wong@cbre.com                             e: heather.edmonds@cbre.com                           e: pamela.murphy@cbre.com




                               Andrea Walker
                               Director
                               Head of Americas Research Publications
                               and Data, CBRE Global Research and
                               Consulting
                               t: +1 919 376 8608
                               e: andrea.walker@cbre.com




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                                 Global Research and Consulting
                                 This report was prepared by the CBRE U.S. Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting – a
                                 network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric
                                 forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.

                                 Disclaimer
      12                         Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we
                                 have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and
                                 completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be
                                 reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.

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U.S. industrial leasing remains active despite economic headwinds

  • 1. U.S. Industrial MarketView Q2 2012 CBRE Global Research and Consulting AVAILABILITY RATE LEASE RATE NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS 13.2% $5.46 26.4 MSF 5.2 MSF THE FIGHT FOR CLASS A SPACE ACCELERATES Executive Summary • Despite a lackluster macroeconomic environment, industrial leasing velocity has improved as users try to lock-in currently favorable rent and lease terms. • Industrial demand will soften over the next several quarters, in line with slowing U.S. and global growth, a faltering manufacturing sector and shrinking international trade. INDUSTRIAL LEASING ACTIVITY: • User demand for Class A space will More active than underlying continue to drive down availability economic trends would suggest rates, leading to upward pressure on lease rates. Construction activity Despite a number of major global Tenants are upgrading, relocating from is back, including both build-to-suit economic headwinds and a U.S. economy Class B to Class A space, but options are and speculative projects across that is fast losing momentum, industrial getting tighter. Manufacturing space some of the nation’s largest leasing remained surprisingly active across requirements were also on the rise, industrial markets. most markets during the past quarter. The particularly in the southeastern and U.S. industrial market continued to show northeastern U.S. markets, due in part to • Low interest rates and the limited signs of recovery, with the national the U.S. “manufacturing renaissance.” supply of Class A industrial product industrial availability rate dropping by 20 for sale will continue to drive cap basis points (bps) to 13.2% in the second The prospect for industrial demand over rates down in the near term. quarter of 2012. Occupiers have begun the next few months will likely be flat, to move off the sidelines, seeking longer however, given weakening headline • Industrial real estate performance term leases to take advantage of lower economic indicators. U.S. economic data continues to recover as signaled by competitive rents, which are expected to has been disappointing, leading to further the NCREIF Property Index. rise. “Extend and blend” user transactions downward revisions to growth. The overall Industrial real estate delivered an continue, but landlords are getting pricing economy, consumer spending, annualized total return of 13.4% power back as industrial market conditions international trade and the broader during Q1 2012, in line with the improve. A number of industrial users are manufacturing sector are among the key overall index. also considering the ownership option drivers of industrial demand, with all given record-low interest rates. pointing to a soft patch through at least the next quarter. Warehouse demand was the main driver for spaces larger than100,000 sq. ft.
  • 2. Q2 2012 Figure 1: U.S. Economy Downshifts Figure 2: U.S. International Trade Activity Annual Percent Change (%) Total Trade ($ Billions) Annual Percent Change (%) 4.0 $6,000 6% Forecast U.S. Industrial | MarketView 3.5 $5,000 5% Forecast 3.0 4% $4,000 2.5 3% 2.0 $3,000 2% 1.5 $2,000 1% 1.0 $1,000 0% 0.5 0.0 $0 1% 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 Consumer Spending Real GDP 2013Q4 Total Trade (L) Growth % (R) Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight, Interim Forecast, July 2012 The U.S. economy and industrial sector have begun to feel the brunt of the slowdown in global growth, which originated in Europe but has now spread to Latin America and Asia. U.S. trade, which is the sum of imports and exports, slowed during the second quarter and is expected to actually decline in the third quarter. Figure 3: ISM Surprised to the Downside (ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index [Diffusion index, SA]) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 M1 2009 M3 2009 M5 2009 M7 2009 M9 2009 M11 2009 M1 2010 M3 2010 M5 2010 M7 2010 M9 2010 M11 2010 M1 2011 M3 2011 M5 2011 M7 2011 M9 2011 M11 2011 M1 2012 M3 2012 M5 2012 2 Source: Institute for Supply Management
  • 3. Q2 2012 The ISM manufacturing index, a great announcements of new manufacturing facilitate the transportation of oil and demand-side proxy for industrial real plants, especially in the transportation gas for exports. estate, came in well below expectations. sector, in the southern U.S. markets. The June ISM manufacturing index These companies have been drawn by The expansion of e-retailers continues to slumped to 49.7, the first sub-50 competitive labor costs, the availability fuel the need for warehouse and U.S. Industrial | MarketView reading since July 2009. The forward- of real estate at competitive rates, and distribution space. Amazon, the leader in looking details of the survey were also the availability of a skilled and highly e-retailing, continues to push for larger weak, with both new orders and export productive workforce. Part of the facilities close to large metropolitan orders coming in below 50 as global re-shoring of manufacturing to the U.S. areas to decrease delivery times. As headwinds appear to be exerting greater has been driven by the needs of the traditional retailers grow their e-retailer pressure on the U.S. industrial sector. consumers, the timely delivery of product strategies, it will likely increase demand The dip in the ISM suggests that the to the consumer and the demand for for warehouse space and shrink the downshift in the manufacturing sector custom products such as a specific color need for traditional bricks-and-mortar may be accelerating. The manufacturing or design. Although with the recent retail, which is typically 10 to 20 times data had been weak, but until now the increase in demand, manufacturers will the cost of a warehouse facility. ISM index had looked better than either increase the utilization rates of existing manufacturing output or durable goods facilities before seeking additional orders. The ISM survey’s details suggest space. Recent announcements include: that the factory slowdown will continue through at least the next few months. • Airbus’ new assembly plant—to be built in Mobile, Alabama—is Domestic demand for local goods has scheduled to be completed in 2015, a also decreased over the past few months $600 million investment. due to the continued struggles in the housing sector and weaker-than- • Ford is adding 1,800 jobs in Louisville, anticipated job growth. A silver lining for Kentucky, adding a third shift in the fall consumer spending and the U.S. of 2012. economy, however, has been the decline in commodity and energy prices globally. • Magna Seating of America, Inc. is In the U.S., it is estimated that a one- building a 140,000-sq.-ft. plant in cent decline in retail gasoline prices Shepherdsville, Kentucky, adding 450 equates to roughly $1 billion in new jobs in 2012. economy-wide tax cuts. The lower price of oil will provide a floor under • Asahi Forge, a Japanese automotive consumer spending and likely cause supplier, is adding a second domestic consumption to increase manufacturing plant in Richmond, moderately as consumers now have a Kentucky, in 2012. higher level of disposable income. The challenge remains with both consumer • Nissan will increase production for the and business confidence levels; this has new Sentra, adding 1,000 new jobs in resulted in cautious spending and Mississippi. investment from both sides. • GM to add 800 jobs, adding a third Longer-term, however, we expect the shift to its truck plant in Texas in 2012. drivers of industrial demand to shift to a more positive trajectory given secular The domestic energy sector is having a changes in the global economy. U.S. marginal influence on the industrial manufacturing companies continue to sector as well, but this will likely change benefit from the relatively lower value of with the further development in shale, as the U.S.dollar. Accelerating wage rates existing plants are adapted to 3 in Asia and higher transportation costs accommodate the processing and are also fostering a “manufacturing transport of the new materials. New renaissance” in the U.S. Over the past plants are also being built in ports to few months there have been a few
  • 4. Q2 2012 Figure 4: U.S. Industrial Supply and Demand Completions and Absorption (MSF) Availability Rate (%) 80 16% U.S. Industrial | MarketView 60 15% 40 14% 20 13% 0 12% -20 11% -40 10% -60 9% -80 8% -100 7% 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Completions (L) Absorption (L) Availability Rate (R) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors USERS UPGRADING SPACE Despite the lackluster economic availability rate at 13.2%, the scarcity of environment, industrial space demand available space in such buildings means has been relatively stable. Industrial that Class A industrial availabilities users continue to favor higher quality, continue to shrink, in some cases at the newer space that can increase expense of older industrial buildings. productivity and lower the real estate cost. Companies are reviewing everything from their current locations, technology, and plant layout of equipment to increase production efficiencies. In some cases occupiers are moving into newer facilities and reducing space, compared to their prior premises, due to the increase in storage capacity with higher stacking capability and a more efficient plant layout. This is driving the demand by tenants to trade up to newer, more modern Class A industrial facilities. These buildings typically have higher ceilings, super-flat floors and 4 have been built in the last ten years. Even with the national industrial
  • 5. Q2 2012 U.S. Industrial | MarketView HERE COMES THE SUPPLY The lack of available product required 11 million sq. ft., and is on track to industrial availability rates, with available by users is placing upward pressure on exceed the industrial new supply Class A industrial space virtually non- lease rates for the best space; however, completed in 2011. Most of this new existent. Due to the short supply of new lease rates for average product remain space consists of Class A design-build product, many of these projects are flat. In primary markets, rents for newer projects, although an increase in often pre-leased. In Atlanta, despite facilities are approaching replacement speculative construction projects across many available warehouse options, a levels and spurring new development. the country is emerging. Pockets of new 630,000-sq.-ft. speculative project New construction continues to increase speculative construction activity are is under construction, underscoring the across key markets due to the drop in occurring in Northern Virginia, demand for state-of-the-art large availability rates in 2012 and the lack of Indianapolis, the Inland Empire, Orange warehouse and distribution space. newer, Class A industrial space. New County, Salt Lake City and Atlanta. Many construction for 2012 has totaled nearly of these markets have single-digit THE PANAMA CANAL FACTOR The Panama Canal has also impacted accommodate the post-panamax ship is inland remains in western ports. In the the U.S. industrial market with respect to Norfolk. The Port Authority of New York near term, it remains more cost effective competition between East Coast versus and New Jersey has committed $1 and quicker for shippers to offload in West Coast ports. The race continues in billion to raise the Bayonne Bridge, western ports and transport goods via the eastern U.S. gateway markets such which connects Bayonne, New Jersey, rail to major markets such as Chicago. as New York, New Jersey, Norfolk, and with Staten Island, New York, by 64 feet Eastern ports will likely benefit from Miami to invest capital in preparing for to allow larger ships to pass. Port increased container traffic from ships the completion of the Panama Canal spending will increase as we near the using the Suez Canal and expanding expansion. Most of the investment completion of the Panama Canal markets such as Brazil to the south. continues to be for dredging projects, expansion in 2014. 5 which will allow the ports to accommodate larger ships as well as the The investment benefits for eastern ports need to increase the clearance height of will be minimal in the short term, as the bridges. The only port that can currently transportation infrastructure for goods
  • 6. INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL MARKETS Q2 2012 Domestic and cross-border investors trends signal improving transaction to focus on Class A and/or value-add continue to closely monitor industrial volume, according to Real Capital properties in primary markets. Record- U.S. Industrial | MarketView sector fundamentals given favorable Analytics. Over the first five months of low interest rates, combined with greater leasing velocity and the lack of Class A 2012, industrial transactions totaled institutional capital than available supply options for newer space. Stronger rental $10.3 billion, a 13% increase over of properties for sale, continue to drive recovery is being used in underwriting year-ago levels. Interest in industrial down cap rates, especially for better industrial acquisitions. Rising sales property has resurfaced, as investors assets. volume reflects the surge in investor increasingly eye portfolio transactions. interest. The industrial capital market Institutional investors, however, continue Figure 5: Institutional Capital Targeting Industrial Assets Industrial Transaction Volume ($ Billions) Cap Rates (%) $12 8.8% 8.6% $10 8.4% $8 8.2% 8.0% $6 7.8% $4 7.6% 7.4% $2 7.2% $0 7.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 2011 2012 Industrial Transactions (L) Average Cap Rates (R) Source: Real Capital Analytics Industrial real estate performance western region of the U.S. also continues to recover as signaled by the dominates the market value of industrial NCREIF Property Index. Industrial real properties in the NPI and as such, the estate delivered an annualized total solid performance of industrial markets return of 13.4% during Q1 2012, in line in the west continue to drive overall with the overall index. This was the industrial performance. second highest return, trailing only the multi-housing sector. Much of the return has been due to a surge in appreciation returns that have been driven by cap rate 6 compression earlier this year. The
  • 7. REGIONAL Q2 2012 Q2 2012 Figure 6: 25 Largest Industrial Markets - Q2 2012 OVERVIEW: SUPER-REGIONAL U.S. Industrial | MarketView U.S. Industrial | MarketView DISTRIBUTION CENTERS SEATTLE 249,079 SF OUTPERFORM 10.3% DETROIT $6.49 511,766 SF The national availability rate masks MILWAUKEE 11.9% CHICAGO regional performance. According to 226,563 SF $4.47 NEW JERSEY 1,188,170 SF NORTHERN second quarter figures, west coast MINNEAPOLIS/ 11.8% CLEVELAND ST. PAUL 9.7% 409,442 SF markets such as Los Angeles (6.8%) and $3.76 290,783 SF 326,839 SF $3.99 10.1% Orange County (7.4%) are reporting 8.3% lower industrial availability rates than 10.2% $4.59 $6.11 NEW JERSEY any other market. By contrast, east coast $4.70 COLUMBUS CENTRAL markets such as Stamford (25.9%), 208,190 SF 395,459 SF Boston (20.9%) and Atlanta (18.8%) 12.6% 10.4% report among the highest industrial KANSAS $3.04 $4.37 availability rates in the nation. Industrial DENVER CITY SAN JOSE 233,654 SF CINCINNATI PHILADELPHIA markets in older east coast cities suffer 223,929 SF 243,759 SF INLAND 12.3% 267,221 SF 401,433 SF from a higher degree of older and 7.8% 13.5% EMPIRE $4.53 9.5% 12.5% obsolete product. $6.21 $11.42 403,354 SF $3.79 $3.86 11.8% ST. LOUIS INDIANAPOLIS From a regional perspective, the largest LOS BALTIMORE ANGELES $4.08 222,407 SF 238,848 SF increases in absorption occurred in 153,169 SF Chicago, the Inland Empire and New 993,073 SF 14.9% 9.1% ORANGE 15.5% Jersey, respectively, and were mostly 6.8% PHOENIX $4.34 $4.28 MARKET COUNTY $4.79 driven by the demand in Class A $6.52 275,326 SF ATLANTA STOCK (SF x 1000) 252,457 SF DALLAS/ industrial warehouse and distribution 15.0% 551,590 SF AVAILABILITY RATE 7.4% FT. WORTH space. SAN DIEGO $6.84 18.8% NNN ASKING RENT $7.56 721,121 SF 200,759 SF $3.29 15.0% 13.4% $10.32 $3.70 HOUSTON NATIONAL QUICK STATS 448,767 SF 9.2% 200,000,000 SF $3.91 1,000,000,000 SF MIAMI Q2 2012 Current QoQ YoY 211,710 SF Availability Rate 13.2% i i 9.3% $4.68 Lease Rate $5.46 h h Net Absorption* 26.4 MSF i i Construction Completions 5.2 MSF i i Source: CBRE Research 7 Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we 8 *The arrows indicate a trend and do not represent a positive or negative value for the underlying statistic have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be (e.g., net absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive trend over the time period). reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.
  • 8. NEW JERSEY Q2 2012 Industrial availability in Central New York and New Jersey remains strong, Three new construction projects Jersey remained flat at 10.4%, whereas adding to the demand for warehouse amounting to 1.17 million sq. ft. broke U.S. Industrial | MarketView availability decreased 40 bps to 10.1% and distribution space. In the northern ground during Q2 2012. More than half in Northern New Jersey during the same portion of New Jersey, the Meadowlands of these new starts are being built on period. The average asking lease rate submarket continues to attract significant speculative development and the recent for industrial property in New Jersey tenant demand with its high increase in new construction is pushing increased during the second quarter for concentration of industrial space in close land prices higher. the first time in the past four years. The proximity to New York City. state’s asking lease rate is still $1.07 below its peak rate set in Q2 2008, As compared to just a few quarters ago, although that gap is expected to tighten, industrial construction activity in New especially for Class A industrial space. Jersey is picking up, due to increasing demand and limited number of options Central New Jersey continues to attract for large, modern industrial users. Four the majority of demand for new space, industrial buildings were completed in mostly consisting of third party logistics Q2 2012: three build-to-suit projects as well as consumer products totaling 652,155 sq. ft. and one companies. Activity at the ports of New 101,600-sq.-ft. speculative project. GREATER LOS ANGELES The Greater Los Angeles industrial Class A distribution centers are in high both manufacturing companies and availability rate fell to 6.8%, a 10 bps demand by logistics companies and wholesalers. The most active size range decrease from the previous quarter; this retailers looking to expand distribution is between 50,000 sq. ft. and 75,000 represents one of the lowest rates in the capabilities. Activity levels are very high sq. ft.—in fact, approximately 63% of U.S. The increased volume of port in the 100,000-sq.-ft. category. The bulk Q2 2012 activity was between 10,000 activity has created an even greater of construction activity in Southern sq. ft. and 100,000 sq. ft. Although need for distribution space for larger California is also occurring in the Inland construction is fairly active in Los and more modern distribution facilities Empire, with 7.3 million sq. ft. currently Angeles County, with 1.8 million sq. ft., of over 100,000 sq. ft. In addition, there under construction (the highest figure the market has not experienced the has been an increase in demand for since pre-recession), of which 38%—or same growth that the Inland Empire is industrial space under 50,000 sq. ft., 2.8 million sq. ft.—is speculative witnessing. However, during the next six mainly coming from small start-up construction. to 12 months, the lack of Class A companies. industrial space will likely spur an In Los Angeles County, Commerce, increased volume of construction, The Inland Empire is dominating market South Bay and San Fernando have been including speculative projects. activity in Southern California, as large particularly strong, with demand from 9
  • 9. DALLAS Q2 2012 The industrial availability rate remained Lease rates are starting to increase, flat in Dallas at 13.4% for Q2 2012. primarily due to a shrinking availability U.S. Industrial | MarketView Figure 7: Most of the recent demand has been of space. Most new construction has Industrial Market Snapshot from retailers for warehouse and consisted of build-to-suit activity. Two distribution buildings. Home Depot speculative projects were recently Lowest Availability Rates (%) recently occupied a large block of announced: approximately 661,000 sq. space, and Kohl’s will be opening a ft. in South Dallas from ProLogis; and LOS ANGELES METRO 6.8 facility later this year. The most active 529,000 sq. ft. in Northwest Dallas ORANGE COUNTY 7.4 submarket, Great Southwest/Arlington, from IDI. posted the largest amount of absorption WESTCHESTER COUNTY 7.7 in the first half of 2012, at 2.8 million DENVER 7.8 sq. ft. total. CLEVELAND 8.3 CHICAGO Highest Availability Rates (%) STAMFORD 25.9 Chicago’s industrial market continues to For new industrial supply, two projects BOSTON 20.9 recover, with the availability rate broke ground in the second quarter: a decreasing to 9.7%, a change of 40 bps 239,000-sq.-ft. build-to-suit for FedEx, AUSTIN 19.4 from the previous quarter. Three out of and a 604,000-sq.-ft. speculative ATLANTA 18.8 the top 10 deals were paper-related project, both of which are in the Far SW companies (Kimberly Clark at 716,318 suburban submarket. In addition, there WALNUT CREEK 18.5 sq. ft.; Domtar Paper with 453,364 sq. are six projects currently under Source: CBRE Research ft.; and International Paper at 316,000 construction totaling 1.9 million sq. ft., sq. ft.). Machinery, metal and durable of which two are speculative projects goods also had strong showings during while the other four are build-to-suit. Figure 8: Largest Quarterly the second quarter. The Far SW The last time Chicago had this much Decreases and Increases* suburban market in Chicago (also speculative construction was in 2008. known as the I-55 corridor) dominated An increase in demand is causing rental leasing activity during Q2 2012, with rates to increase marginally while Decreases in Availability more than 1.7 million sq. ft. of activity. landlords are offering less tenant COLUMBUS -2.9 This accounted for 24% of all leasing incentives and moving rents up for Class DETROIT -1.9 activity that occurred in Q2 2012. This A industrial buildings. submarket has newer big box product, ORLANDO -1.8 lower lease rates and easy access to HARTFORD -1.0 expressways, which will keep it in tenants’ favor for the foreseeable future. BALTIMORE & STAMFORD -0.9 Increases in Availability ATLANTA WESTCHESTER COUNTY 1.7 WALNUT CREEK 1.3 The industrial availability rate in Atlanta for modern industrial buildings has increased to 18.8%, a difference of 20 caused older product in the Fulton SAN ANTONIO 1.2 bps from the previous quarter. Demand industrial market to lag due to the age JACKSONVILLE 1.0 for warehouse and distribution space and obsolescence of older industrial 10 from third-party logistics firms has buildings. New construction has been LONG ISLAND 0.8 increased. Bulk warehouse Class A limited until now, with mostly build-to- *Percentage point change space in the core submarkets of suit activity taking place in Source: CBRE Research Northeast and South Atlanta continues south Atlanta. to be the most sought-after. The demand
  • 10. Figure 9: Industrial Availability - Q2 2012 NNN Asking Rate ($) Availability Rate (%) Market Region Size Rank Q2 12 Q2 12 Q1 12 Q2 11 BALTIMORE 29 4.79 15.5 16.4 17.8 Q2 2012 BOSTON 30 6.45 20.9 21.3 23.1 HARTFORD 41 4.76 14.9 15.9 17.2 LONG ISLAND 44 8.39 14.3 13.5 15.0 MARYLAND SUBURBAN* 39 8.06 15.6 16.2 16.8 U.S. Industrial | MarketView NEW JERSEY CENTRAL 10 4.37 10.4 10.4 12.1 NEW JERSEY NORTHERN 7 6.11 10.1 10.5 10.0 NORFOLK 38 4.53 12.6 12.7 11.4 PHILADELPHIA 9 3.86 12.5 12.7 12.7 STAMFORD 50 7.00 25.9 26.8 21.1 VIRGINIA NORTHERN* 42 10.22 15.3 14.7 15.9 WESTCHESTER COUNTY 51 10.74 7.7 6.0 4.5 East 12.9 13.2 13.7 CHICAGO 1 3.99 9.7 10.1 10.5 CINCINNATI 14 3.79 9.5 10.1 10.2 CLEVELAND 12 4.59 8.3 8.5 9.9 COLUMBUS 24 3.04 12.6 15.5 16.1 DETROIT 5 4.47 11.9 13.8 15.1 INDIANAPOLIS 18 4.28 9.1 9.3 10.9 KANSAS CITY 19 4.53 12.3 12.3 12.3 MILWAUKEE 20 3.76 11.8 11.1 12.1 MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL 11 4.70 10.2 10.9 11.5 ST. LOUIS 22 4.34 14.9 15.1 15.0 Midwest 10.7 11.3 12.0 ATLANTA 4 3.29 18.8 18.6 19.2 AUSTIN 43 6.84 19.4 19.1 22.0 DALLAS/FT. WORTH 3 3.70 13.4 13.4 14.7 FT. LAUDERDALE 37 6.63 11.6 11.1 13.4 HOUSTON 6 3.91 9.2 9.3 10.3 JACKSONVILLE 36 3.98 16.5 15.5 14.7 MIAMI 23 4.68 9.3 9.2 10.5 NASHVILLE 28 3.78 15.6 15.3 15.1 ORLANDO 34 5.00 17.5 19.3 19.5 PALM BEACH 45 6.44 12.8 13.3 13.7 SAN ANTONIO 48 4.88 16.7 15.5 17.8 TAMPA 32 5.02 13.4 13.5 13.3 South 14.0 13.9 14.9 ALBUQUERQUE 46 6.50 12.0 11.7 11.4 DENVER 21 6.21 7.8 8.4 9.2 INLAND EMPIRE 8 4.08 11.8 12.5 12.2 LAS VEGAS 35 5.74 13.5 13.2 11.4 LOS ANGELES METRO 2 6.52 6.8 6.9 7.4 OAKLAND 31 5.28 9.2 9.4 10.3 ORANGE COUNTY 15 7.56 7.4 7.8 8.5 PHOENIX 13 6.84 15.0 15.4 16.2 PORTLAND 26 4.44 9.7 9.6 10.5 SACRAMENTO 27 5.16 16.8 16.7 16.0 SALT LAKE CITY 33 4.80 8.7 9.4 9.3 SAN DIEGO 25 10.32 15.0 15.4 16.2 SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA 40 18.12 9.5 9.9 9.3 11 SAN JOSE 17 11.42 13.5 13.7 15.2 SEATTLE 16 6.49 10.3 10.7 11.8 TUCSON 47 6.65 15.5 15.5 12.7 WALNUT CREEK 49 7.20 18.5 17.2 17.5 West 10.4 10.6 11.1 UNITED STATES 13.2 13.4 14.0 * Maryland Suburban and Virginia Northern represent Washington, DC area. U.S. national figures provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA), all other figures compiled by CBRE Research
  • 11. contacts For more information about this U.S. Industrial MarketView, please contact: Q2 2012 Edward J. Schreyer, SIOR Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. James Costello Executive Managing Director Head of Research, Americas and Managing Director, Head of Americas U.S. Industrial | MarketView Brokerage Services, Americas Senior Managing Director Investment, Consulting and Strategy, CBRE CBRE Global Research and Consulting CBRE Global Research and Consulting t: +1 214 863 3042 t: +1 415 772 0258 t: +1 617 912 5326 e: ed.schreyer@cbre.com e: asieh.mansour@cbre.com e: jim.costello@cbre.com Follow Asieh on Twitter: @AsiehMansourCRE Raymond Wong Heather Edmonds Pamela Murphy Managing Director, COO and Director, Western U.S. Research Division, Senior Vice President, Eastern Industrial Specialist, Americas Research, CBRE Global Research and Consulting and Central U.S. Research Divisions, CBRE Global Research and Consulting CBRE Global Research and Consulting t: +1 416 815 2353 t: +1 909 418 2090 t: +1 212 984 8004 e: raymond.wong@cbre.com e: heather.edmonds@cbre.com e: pamela.murphy@cbre.com Andrea Walker Director Head of Americas Research Publications and Data, CBRE Global Research and Consulting t: +1 919 376 8608 e: andrea.walker@cbre.com FOLLOW US GOOGLE+ FACEBOOK TWITTER Global Research and Consulting This report was prepared by the CBRE U.S. Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting – a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. Disclaimer 12 Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.