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Måns Nilsson
                                      Stockholm Environment Institute
                                     and Royal Institute of Technology




                    IRF
Independent Research Forum

           For a Post 2015 Sustainable
              Development Agenda


12-09-03
IRF research agenda
• Post 2015 universal development vision and
  narrative
• SDG objectives structure and hierarchy
• Indepth analysis of multilevel implementation
  of specific goal areas such as water, energy
  and food
• Indicators, monitoring and learning systems


   12-09-03
Prof. Måns Nilsson
                                                                  Stockholm Environment Institute
                                                                 and Royal Institute of Technology




Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)
World Resources Institute (WRI)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE)
Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development (FBDS)



                                Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011                              3
Energy as a basis for development
Exponential
growth in energy
             use




          Source: IIASA



                          5
6
7
Women disproportionally affected
by lack of modern energy




                                   8
Energy and development
Energy for shared development globally
  faster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for
     productive/ industrial economic activities world wide.


                                               Energy for ”modern society”

                                       Energy for productive and industrial
                                       purposes

                                 Access to basic energy services for the poor




Energy for basic needs and MDGs
  providing lighting, cooking and other basic energy services to all based
    on an extension of the MDG goals

                                                                         10
Key question
• What are the energy systems implications of a
  development pathway with converging per capita
  incomes over the long term?
   – A detailed sector-by-sector energy scenario for 22 world regions
       -a good chance to achieve 2 degrees climate change
       -meeting global needs for energy for development
       - observing land and water constraints


   – 1st roll out of basic energy services to the poor
   – 2nd energy demand on par with middle income
       • radical improvements in energy efficiency
       • accelerated retirement of fossil fuels
       • shift toward renewable energy sources
Energy and the Sustainable Development Agenda
GDP:
Shared Development
Cumulative Emissions:
Scenarios Compared to Requirements
for Climate Protection

Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050                Gt CO2
Baseline                                               2,516
Shared Development Agenda                              1,165
Required to Give 50% Chance of Keeping within 2C       1,440
Required to Give 67% Chance of Keeping within 2C       1,169
”Nexus” interaction: Where and when does
bioenergy hit constraints?
  400

  350

  300

  250
                                                             Low
  200                                                        M edium
                                                             Strict
  150

  100

   50

    0
        default   no grass   no nature    10%      TEEB-BL
                                         forests
Energy implications
Energy demand trajectories in different regions




E
J
Making sustainable energy for all real
• Access
     • 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services
     • 2050 +Ensuring enough supply for productive economic
       activities world wide
• Efficiency
     • 2030 Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency
     • 2050 +Electrification of processes and transport
• Low carbon energy
     • 2030 Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global
       energy mix
     • 2050 +Ensuring land and water requirements are balanced
Municipal
                                   Transition            efficiency
          Enhancing efficiency     towns UK               Sweden
 Zero-    and lifestyles                   Efficient
Carbon
                                           buildings
Seattle
                                          Netherlands            EU                    Wind in          Solar
                       Solar EU
                                                             Covenant                  China            PV in
                        and US
                                                             of Mayors                                  China

                                                                                           Integrated
                          Expanding                                            Cook
                                                                                              power
                                                                                            planning
                                                                              stoves
                          renewable          Bio-
                                                                Local          India
                                                                                            Thailand
                                            energy
                          energy             Mali
                                                               ethanol
                                                               Ethiopia
                                                                             Lighting
                                                                              rural           Energy
                                                                               India         for all in
                                                     Hydro                                   Asia prog
                                                    power                                                  Microhydro
                        Biofuels                                                                           Indonesia
                                                   and grids
                         Brazil
                                                    in SSA
                                                                          Expanding basic
                                                                          energy access
                                                Integrated
                                                   power
                                                 planning
                                                    SA
Contributing policies: transition pathways

                               Stable market signals
Facilitate entry of
new actors




Long term and          Support
industry-close         experiments /demos
R&D                    and niche markets


                                                 20
Selected policy implications
International
1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs
2. Establish global mechanism for energy for development – with
     goals, financing and technology sharing
National
1. Investment and RD&D needs not met - put the state back in the
     game, reinvent industrial policy
2. Put predictable but dynamic hard regulations in place to direct
     and drive innovation efforts
Subnational
1. Nurture private-public partnerships to enable infrastructure
     investments and innovation platforms
2. Foster new business models and entrepreneurship for access and
     for efficient practices
Sustainable Development Goals
can be formulated as:

• Contributing goals
    – Processes and decisions towards the goals
• Ultimate goals
    – Outcomes - changes in behaviours / investments etc
    – Impacts – changes in society or the environment


 Policy and        Policy outputs     Outcomes        Impacts on SD
 institutional     and                                (economic,
 frameworks        implementation                     environmental,
                   decisions                          social)
Low carbon supply goals / contributing

R&D expenditure




                   Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   23
Low carbon supply goals / contributing


Public subsidies




                   Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   24
Low carbon supply goals / ultimate


Renewable energy shares




                    Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   25
Low carbon supply goals / ultimate


Cost reductions




                                     Source; Junginger et al 2008




                                                                    26
Access goals: contributing

Annual investments required
  Total Investment needs: ca 48 billion
  USD per year
    (1/3 donors / home governments /
  private sector)




                              Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   27
Efficiency goals

  – Activity levels of energy services in households
     • Electrification and electricity use per capita
     • Modern cooking stoves in use
  – Activity levels of energy services in economic sectors
  – Intensity in economy wide and in sectors
  – Intensities / efficiency measurements in buildings
     • Conversion rates of existing stock
     • Performance of new buildings




                                                         28

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Energy and the Sustainable Development Agenda

  • 1. Måns Nilsson Stockholm Environment Institute and Royal Institute of Technology IRF Independent Research Forum For a Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda 12-09-03
  • 2. IRF research agenda • Post 2015 universal development vision and narrative • SDG objectives structure and hierarchy • Indepth analysis of multilevel implementation of specific goal areas such as water, energy and food • Indicators, monitoring and learning systems 12-09-03
  • 3. Prof. Måns Nilsson Stockholm Environment Institute and Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) World Resources Institute (WRI) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE) Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development (FBDS) Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 3
  • 4. Energy as a basis for development
  • 5. Exponential growth in energy use Source: IIASA 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7
  • 8. Women disproportionally affected by lack of modern energy 8
  • 10. Energy for shared development globally faster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for productive/ industrial economic activities world wide. Energy for ”modern society” Energy for productive and industrial purposes Access to basic energy services for the poor Energy for basic needs and MDGs providing lighting, cooking and other basic energy services to all based on an extension of the MDG goals 10
  • 11. Key question • What are the energy systems implications of a development pathway with converging per capita incomes over the long term? – A detailed sector-by-sector energy scenario for 22 world regions -a good chance to achieve 2 degrees climate change -meeting global needs for energy for development - observing land and water constraints – 1st roll out of basic energy services to the poor – 2nd energy demand on par with middle income • radical improvements in energy efficiency • accelerated retirement of fossil fuels • shift toward renewable energy sources
  • 14. Cumulative Emissions: Scenarios Compared to Requirements for Climate Protection Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2 Baseline 2,516 Shared Development Agenda 1,165 Required to Give 50% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,440 Required to Give 67% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,169
  • 15. ”Nexus” interaction: Where and when does bioenergy hit constraints? 400 350 300 250 Low 200 M edium Strict 150 100 50 0 default no grass no nature 10% TEEB-BL forests
  • 17. Energy demand trajectories in different regions E J
  • 18. Making sustainable energy for all real • Access • 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services • 2050 +Ensuring enough supply for productive economic activities world wide • Efficiency • 2030 Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency • 2050 +Electrification of processes and transport • Low carbon energy • 2030 Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix • 2050 +Ensuring land and water requirements are balanced
  • 19. Municipal Transition efficiency Enhancing efficiency towns UK Sweden Zero- and lifestyles Efficient Carbon buildings Seattle Netherlands EU Wind in Solar Solar EU Covenant China PV in and US of Mayors China Integrated Expanding Cook power planning stoves renewable Bio- Local India Thailand energy energy Mali ethanol Ethiopia Lighting rural Energy India for all in Hydro Asia prog power Microhydro Biofuels Indonesia and grids Brazil in SSA Expanding basic energy access Integrated power planning SA
  • 20. Contributing policies: transition pathways Stable market signals Facilitate entry of new actors Long term and Support industry-close experiments /demos R&D and niche markets 20
  • 21. Selected policy implications International 1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs 2. Establish global mechanism for energy for development – with goals, financing and technology sharing National 1. Investment and RD&D needs not met - put the state back in the game, reinvent industrial policy 2. Put predictable but dynamic hard regulations in place to direct and drive innovation efforts Subnational 1. Nurture private-public partnerships to enable infrastructure investments and innovation platforms 2. Foster new business models and entrepreneurship for access and for efficient practices
  • 22. Sustainable Development Goals can be formulated as: • Contributing goals – Processes and decisions towards the goals • Ultimate goals – Outcomes - changes in behaviours / investments etc – Impacts – changes in society or the environment Policy and Policy outputs Outcomes Impacts on SD institutional and (economic, frameworks implementation environmental, decisions social)
  • 23. Low carbon supply goals / contributing R&D expenditure Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 23
  • 24. Low carbon supply goals / contributing Public subsidies Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 24
  • 25. Low carbon supply goals / ultimate Renewable energy shares Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 25
  • 26. Low carbon supply goals / ultimate Cost reductions Source; Junginger et al 2008 26
  • 27. Access goals: contributing Annual investments required Total Investment needs: ca 48 billion USD per year (1/3 donors / home governments / private sector) Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 27
  • 28. Efficiency goals – Activity levels of energy services in households • Electrification and electricity use per capita • Modern cooking stoves in use – Activity levels of energy services in economic sectors – Intensity in economy wide and in sectors – Intensities / efficiency measurements in buildings • Conversion rates of existing stock • Performance of new buildings 28

Notas del editor

  1. This leads to enormous equity issues of course. The State of New York with its 20 M people consume about as much electricity as Subsaharan africa’s 800 million people.
  2. But returning to the development challenge, a major cause of concern is the unequal use of energy.
  3. There are also safety, education
  4. A study we are presenting
  5. Three strategies to make this happen Electrification of energy systems Move to low carbon energy sources and drastic increase in RES Efficiency
  6. Need for innovation to bring costs down and acceptance up - requires public investment