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Food & Beverage
Industry Snapshot
Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Summer 2012




Deals continue to perk
Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC            Overview                                                  Contact information
(GTCF) is pleased to present its semiannual     The food and beverage industry has been a very active
Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot for           sector for M&A activity since the beginning of the        Brian Basil
summer 2012. This snapshot contains timely      year, and there are indications that this trend will      Director
                                                                                                          Grant Thornton Corporate Finance
commentary on key factors affecting the food    continue. Reported deal value exceeded $6 billion         T 248.233.6930
and beverage industry, an overview of trends    during the first six months of 2012, a 30% increase       E brian.basil@us.gt.com
in M&A and a summary of industry stock          over the same period last year. Driving this activity
                                                                                                          Erik Egerer
market performance. This issue also features    are factors that have been addressed in earlier issues
                                                                                                          Manager
a section focused on the coffee sector, which   of this publication, such as the move toward healthier    Grant Thornton Corporate Finance
includes trends, M&A activity and public        lifestyles, budget-conscious consumers and food safety    T 248.213.4227
                                                                                                          E erik.egerer@us.gt.com
market information.                             concerns (and their associated compliance costs). These
	 Through offices in more than 100              factors continue to present industry participants with
countries worldwide, the partners and           challenges and competitive pressures that often lead
employees of Grant Thornton International       to M&A activity. Recently, another trend has had a
Ltd member firms serve several hundred          generally positive effect on many
food and beverage clients ranging from          food and beverage participants,
global conglomerates to middle-market           particularly downstream.
companies in all sectors of the industry.                      continued >
GTCF teams have advised on more than
50 food and beverage industry M&A
transactions over the past three years.
Commodity price index
                                                                                 Trends in the metrics
                                                                                 Total U.S.-target food and beverage M&A activity for the first
    Crude oil           Corn             Wheat                                   half of 2012 was essentially flat compared with the same period
400%
                                                                                 last year, which was one of the strongest six-month periods since
                                                                                 2007. However, deal value increased by 30% (from $5 billion
                                                                                 to $6.5 billion) because several large transactions, including the
300%                                                                             following, were announced in the first half of the year:

                                                                                 •	 Kellogg acquired The Wimble Company (which sells snack
200%                                                                                products under the Pringles brand) from Procter & Gamble
                                                                                    for $2.7 billion. This acquisition helps Kellogg expand its
                                                                                    global snack business by adding to its existing brands such
100%
                                                                                    as Keebler and Cheez-It.
                                                                                 •	 Italian dairy company Parmalat announced in May 12 its
   0%
                                                                                    intent to acquire Lactalis American Group, a U.S.-based
        Jan     Oct    Jul     Apr      Jan      Oct    Jul    Apr   Jan   Oct      cheese manufacturer, for $904 million. This acquisition will
         2005         2007            2008       2009         2010     2011
                                                                                    facilitate Parmalat’s entry into the U.S. market and expand
Source: International Monetary Fund                                                 the company’s product line.
                                                                                 •	 In May 2012, refined sugar processor Imperial Sugar sold its
Falling commodity prices                                                            stake in Wholesome Sweeteners to Arlon Capital Partners
As illustrated in the food and beverage commodity price index                       for $177 million. This transaction was completed in an effort
(CPI) chart shown above, commodity prices have subsided                             to increase Imperial Sugar’s liquidity because the company
from the highs seen in early 2011. Wheat and corn prices                            had been facing financial problems due to rising input costs
declined 25% and 13%, respectively, over last year’s. Crude oil                     (mainly raw sugar prices). Imperial Sugar was sold to Louis
prices dropped 4% over the past 12 months, largely as a result                      Dreyfus Commodities for $150 million in June 2012.
of increased OPEC production, looming European economic                          •	 The world’s no. 1 brewer (by sales), Anheuser-Busch InBev,
concerns and slower growth in emerging markets (such as                             recently offered to purchase the 65% share in Mexico’s
China and India), whose tremendous demand had previously                            Grupo Modelo that it does not already own. Grupo
pushed up commodity prices. While prices remain high on                             Modelo produces the Corona brand, which is the best-
a historical basis, the recent softening in the commodity                           selling imported beer in the United States. The deal, which
market is a positive sign for the food and beverage industry.                       contemplates a value of $29 billion for Grupo Modelo, has
Higher commodity prices have exerted considerable pressure                          been approved by Modelo’s board of directors.
on margins in recent years, but that pressure is now easing.                                                                                                   continued >
Meanwhile, consumers worried about their budgets have been
resistant to accepting price increases; indeed, many of them                     Food and beverage industry M&A activity
have been choosing lower-cost items instead. While most
                                                                                    # of announced transactions             Total disclosed deal value ($ billions)
observers feel, at least for the moment, that the slowdown in
                                                                                 # Transactions                                                        Deal value ($ billions)
the Chinese economy is temporary, the current commodity
                                                                                  400                                                                                   $120
market is making it somewhat easier for food and beverage
companies to operate profitably. The longevity of this trend                      350
                                                                                                                                                                        $100
will depend largely on whether China resumes its aggressive
                                                                                  300
growth and whether and when the European economic crisis
                                                                                                                                                                        $80
can be averted/addressed.                                                         250
	 For the time being, the benefits associated with lower
                                                                                  200                                                                                   $60
commodity prices are accruing primarily to producers, distributors
and retailers. Consumer prices have not yet responded — the                       150
                                                                                                                                                                        $40
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% rise in the food and
                                                                                  100
beverage CPI over the past 12 months — but if commodity prices
                                                                                                                                                                        $20
continue to fall, consumers might still benefit.                                    50


                                                                                     0                                                                                  $0
                                                                                          2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011                     1H 2011 1H 2012

                                                                                 Sources: GTCF research; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ




2 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
The GTCF Food and Beverage Index depicted at left
Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Food and Beverage Index
                                                                                                reflects data from industry participants that are broadly
     GTCF Food and Beverage Index                    S&P 500                                    categorized as either food processors, food distributors, food
                                                                                                retailers or beverage companies. This data shows that food
160%
                                                                                                and beverage companies have outperformed the S&P 500 for
140%                                                                                            the past several years, and the gap appears to be widening. We
                                                                                                expect this gap to widen further, especially if commodity prices
120%                                                                                            continue to ease. And while overall public market performance
                                                                                                remains slightly below its 2007 peak, the food and beverage
100%                                                                                            industry is performing well above 2007 levels. Although not all
                                                                                                participants are performing uniformly well, the industry taken
 80%
                                                                                                as a whole is a bright spot in today’s economy.
                                                                                                	 Another way to look at public market performance is by
 60%
                                                                                                examining EV/EBITDA multiples, which provide insight into
                                                                                                how valuable a company is when both debt and equity are taken
 40%
        Jun    Dec     Jun    Dec     Jun     Dec     Jun    Dec     Jun     Dec Mar            into account. These multiples also allow observers to compare
          2007           2008            2009           2010            2011      2012
                                                                                                the values of companies that have different business models.
Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ       	 As shown in the chart below, EBITDA multiples for
                                                                                                all categories have risen since last year. These increases are
                                                                                                attributable to growth expectations in the near term as well
	 The prevalence of larger M&A transactions is a strong                                         as the likelihood of profitability enhancements resulting from
indication of a robust deal market. Accordingly, deal activity                                  commodity price declines.
in the food and beverage sector is expected to remain healthy                                   	 Notably, food and beverage companies in the United States
through 2012, continuing the trend we have observed over the                                    appear to be performing very well compared with those in the
past few years. Both financial and strategic buyers are flush                                   European Union (EU) and those whose revenue is heavily
with cash and are under pressure to deploy it. Further, barring                                 EU-dependent. Considering the present state of the European
any action by the federal government, the capital gains tax rate                                economy, it should come as no surprise that EU companies
will increase from 15% to 20% at the end of the year. In 2010,                                  are trading more than 2.5x lower than their U.S. counterparts.
the market expected capital gains rates to rise during 2011, so                                 Additionally, their average valuation levels have fallen during the
we saw heavier-than-normal deal activity, particularly in the                                   past 12 months, in stark contrast to improving valuations in the
fourth quarter of 2010. We expect that 2012 could exhibit a                                     United States. Unless and until the economic issues in the EU are
similar pattern. Companies considering a sale will likely try to                                resolved, we expect these differences in valuation to persist.
complete the sale by the end of the year.                                                                                                                continued >




Food and beverage EBITDA multiples

                                                                      Average metrics                                                Historical
                                                                                                                                      metrics

                                    % of 52-week            Enterprise               LTM                            LTM EV/         06/30/11
 Category                                                                                           EV/EBIT
                                    high                    value ($M)               EBITDA %                       EBITDA          EV/EBITDA

 Food distributors                  83.0%                      $ 7,812               4.0%           12.0x           9.5x           9.4x
 Food retailers                     82.7%                        28,541              13.5%          15.4x           10.4x          10.0x
 Food processors                    92.6%                        26,525              16.1%          13.9x           11.2x          10.4x
 Beverage companies                 94.9%                        42,566              22.7%          16.0x           12.5x          11.1x
 U.S. average                       88.3%                       26,361               14.1%          14.3x           10.9x          10.2x
 EU average                         87.2%                       54,522               11.3%          10.4x           8.3x           8.8x


As of 06/30/2012
Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ




3 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
Sector focus — coffee
As one of the most widely enjoyed beverages in the United
States and globally, coffee comprises a critical sector of the
food and beverage industry. Made from beans harvested in
Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, and subsequently
roasted to create a unique flavor, coffee has become as much an
expression of individual taste as the automobile has.
	 The industry is segmented into growers, roasters and
retailers, with retail sales occurring along several paths. One
is the at-home market, which includes instant coffee along
with ground and whole gourmet beans sold in grocery stores
or coffee shops. Another is the away-from-home market,
which includes coffee shops, combination stores such as Tim
Hortons, and operations such as McDonald’s. The third
segment is one that we highlight because of its recent growth:
the single-serve coffee market, as epitomized by Keurig’s
K-Cup®. In reviewing the coffee industry as a whole, we
focus most closely on the retail channels because they drive
sales throughout the sector. Further, many retailers such as
Starbucks look to integrated roasting to assure quality and
provide consistency across all stores. Vertical integration is
also a social mechanism that allows retailers to encourage
the sourcing of beans from fair trade growers, which stress
reasonable working conditions and fair wages.
	 Over the past several years, demand for coffee has increased
across all retail sectors, including at-home coffee, specialty
coffee served at cafés, and one-cup coffee brewers. While these
subsegments have historically been somewhat distinct, the
notion that companies sell products that fit into only one of
these categories is no longer true — premium coffee is being
sold at supermarkets for at-home purposes, higher-end coffee
shops are now offering ground and whole beans, and several
companies appear to be interested in entering the single-serve     •	 As consumer preferences shift to higher-end roasts,
coffee sector.                                                        companies such as McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts and Tim
                                                                      Hortons, all of which are commonly known for selling
•	 Primary brands for the at-home coffee segment include              lower-quality blends, are now beginning to offer freshly
   Folgers (owned by J.M. Smucker), Maxwell House (owned              brewed premium roast coffee. McDonald’s has even started
   by Kraft), and Nescafé (owned by Nestlé). Premium blends           a coffeehouse-style chain called McCafé that features a line
   continue to penetrate the supermarket channel; Starbucks           of specialty drinks.
   has introduced Via Instant Coffee, and J.M. Smucker has
   acquired the licensing rights to sell packaged Dunkin’          •	 A newer product that has become widely successful over
   Donuts coffee.                                                     the past 10 years is single-cup coffee. Keurig — owned by
                                                                      Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) — currently
•	 Even though companies such as Starbucks, Caribou Coffee,           leads the single-serve coffee market but faces increased
   and Peet’s Coffee & Tea offer at-home coffee, their primary        competition because its main patents related to the K-Cup
   focus is on serving gourmet coffee in the form of cappuccino,      are set to expire in September 2012. Kroger and Safeway
   latte and espresso at their cafés. These coffeehouses have         are already planning to launch private-label coffee pods
   become more and more popular because they offer a place            that work with the Keurig machine. In an attempt to hedge
   where patrons can study, socialize or simply relax with a          projected losses, GMCR has partnered with Caribou
   hot (or cold) cup of joe in hand. Increasing demand for this       Coffee, Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts for production of
   atmosphere has driven industry growth.                             these brands of coffee in its K-Cups.
                                                                                                                         continued >




4 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
Coffee beans trade as a commodity whose price is                               Notable transactions
dependent on supply from the once-per-year harvest along                         Almost 40 transactions have been announced within the coffee
with demand trends. The companies discussed earlier in this                      market since the start of 2011. Some of these transactions are
article have performed well on average, despite the recent                       described below:
volatility in the coffee bean market. The price of coffee
beans has fluctuated much like the prices of wheat, corn and                     •	 In February 2011, J.M. Smucker acquired Rowland Coffee
crude oil, increasing through April 2011 and then trending                          Roasters, maker of the leading Hispanic coffee brands Café
downward. As shown in the chart below, coffee bean prices                           Bustelo and Café Pilon, for more than $350 million. This
rose 33% from November 2010 to April 2011 as adverse                                acquisition improves J.M. Smucker’s place among Hispanic
weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia limited the                               coffee drinkers in the United States.
supply of coffee beans. Additionally, stronger demand from
emerging markets put upward pressure on prices. This, plus                       •	 In October 2011, J.M. Smucker acquired a majority of
increased fuel and packaging costs, translated to higher retail                     Sara Lee’s North American foodservice coffee and tea
coffee prices for consumers as roasters and retailers cautiously                    business for $430 million. This acquisition will bolster
passed on rising expenditures. For example, J.M. Smucker (the                       J.M. Smucker’s position in the coffee market. Sara Lee sold
manufacturer of Folgers, Millstone and packaged Dunkin’                             the majority stake because the unbranded business faced
Donuts coffee) raised prices for its coffee brands sold in the                      challenges to growth.
United States by 10% in February 2011 and 11% in May 2011.
This followed two price increases in 2010. And Starbucks                         •	 Sara Lee recently split up into two pure-play public
marked up the price of packaged coffee by 17% in July 2011.                         companies: a meat-focused Hillshire Brands Company
	 As coffee bean prices have dropped 32% over the past 12                           and an international coffee and tea company called D.E.
months in response to expectations of a robust harvest from                         Masters Blend. (The Sara Lee brand has not completely
Brazil, companies have reduced retail prices, although not to                       ceased to exist; it is being used for certain bakery and deli
the same degree as input costs have fallen. For example, both                       products distributed by Hillshire Brands.) Before debuting
Kraft and J.M. Smucker have lowered their coffee prices by 6%                       D.E. Masters Blend as a stand-alone business, Sara Lee
twice — once in August 2011 and again in May 2012.                                  chose to strengthen its offerings through acquisitions,
	 Consumer prices tend to be somewhat insulated by short-                           which included The Coffee Company (Netherlands), Tea
term swings in coffee bean prices due to extensive use of hedging.                  Forté (United States) and Expresso.Coffee (Brazil).
However, if changes in input pricing persist, retail costs will
eventually rise or fall because hedging is short-term by nature.                 •	 Diversification through M&A has become a key strategy
                                                                                    for Starbucks. Most recently, the coffee giant announced its
                                                                                    intent to buy Bay Bread and its La Boulange bakery brand
Price of coffee beans — U.S. cents per pound (lb)                                   for $100 million in order to improve its food offerings.
  250
                                                                                    Moreover, Starbucks acquired juicer Evolution Fresh for
                                                                                    $30 million during November 2011 in an effort to expand
                                                                                    into the health and wellness sector. In addition to pursuing
  200
                                                                                    acquisitions, Starbucks plans to open a new Tazo tea shop
                                                                                    this year and has decided to offer its own single-cup brew
  150
                                                                                    called Verismo. The company also expects to begin selling
                                                                                    beer and wine in various locations in Atlanta and southern
  100                                                                               California by the end of 2012. Starbucks is in the early
                                                                                    stages of its diversified growth strategy, and while some
   50                                                                               experts claim the company might face growth challenges,
                                                                                    others are intrigued and believe that Starbucks will
    0
                                                                                    continue to succeed.
        Jan    Jun    Dec    Jan     Jun    Dec   Jan   Jun    Dec   Jan   Jun
              2009                  2010                2011           2012
                                                                                 	 Although M&A transactions involving retail operations
Source: International Coffee Organization                                        command the headlines, a considerable amount of deal activity
                                                                                 occurs within the roasting market; some retail operators
                                                                                 purchase roasters in an effort to secure vertical integration. Since
                                                                                 2011, there have been 13 reported transactions involving roasters
                                                                                 (a sizable number of deals are not announced publicly).
                                                                                                                                           continued >


5 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
Analysis of a cross-section of publicly traded companies in the coffee space

  			                                                                                                           Revenue ($M)	  Enterprise	     EV/
  Coffee companies        	                       Description/key brands	                        HQ 	           LTM 6/20/12	        value 	 EBITDA
  	
  At-home						
  Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NasdaqGS:GMCR)	 Single-cup cofee	                              United States	       $3,472 	    $3,699 	     5.6x	
  Kraft Foods (NasdaqGS:KFT)	                     Maxwell House	                                 United States	       54,885 	    95,322 	    10.9x	
  Nestlé S.A. (SWX:NESN)	                         Nescafé 	                                      Switzerland	         89,622 	   200,816 	    11.5x	
  The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM)	           Folgers, Millstone 	                           United States	        5,526 	    10,181 	     9.1x	
  		                                                                                             Average	            $38,376 	   $77,504 	     9.3x	
  						
  Away-from-home						
  Caribou Coffee Company (NasdaqGS:CBOU)	         Roaster and retailer	                          United States	          335 	       230 	     8.4x	
  Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NasdaqGS:PEET)	            Roaster and retailer	                          United States	          378 	       745 	    16.3x	
  Starbucks Corporation (NasdaqGS:SBUX)	          Roaster and retailer	                          United States	       12,596 	    38,761 	    16.3x	
  Tim Hortons (TSX:THI)	                          Quick service restaurant/roaster and retailer	 Canada	               2,937 	     8,619 	    12.5x	
  		                                                                                             Average	             $4,061 	   $12,089 	    13.4x	
  Other						
  Coffee Holding Co (NasdaqCM:JVA)	               Distributes coffee to independent roasters.	 United States	            177 	         35 	   70.6x	1
  Farmer Brothers Co. (NasdaqGM:FARM)	            Roaster and distributor	                       United States	          494 	       139 	      n/a	
  		                                                                                             Average	              $336 	        $87 	      n/a	
  						
  		                                                                                             Group average	      $17,042 	   $35,855 	    11.3x	


As of 6/30/2012
Sources: GTCF research; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ
1
  Data point excluded as an outlier




Public company comparables                                                         	 The away-from-home segment includes four well-known
The at-home coffee industry is largely composed of diversified                     coffee shop chains whose EBITDA trading multiples average
food companies; coffee accounts for a minority of sales for three                  13.4x — far higher than multiples for the at-home sector. The
of the four participants listed in this category. For example,                     market is clearly dominated by Starbucks, whose revenue is
only 10% of Kraft’s total revenue for the year ended December                      more than four times greater than that of Tim Hortons, its
2011 came from coffee sales, and less than half (42%) of J.M.                      closest competitor. However, the segment has been under
Smucker’s total revenue for the year ended April 2012 was                          increasing pressure because chains such as McDonald’s and
derived from the retail sale of U.S. coffee. However, we have                      Dunkin’ Donuts have introduced premium blend coffee.
included these companies in our analysis because they own                          Valuation multiples, however, remain very strong in the away-
iconic coffee brands such as Maxwell House, Nescafé, Folgers                       from-home sector at more than 13x EBITDA. These multiples
and Millstone. These well-known brands dominate shelf space                        largely reflect the premium prices Starbucks and other high-
at major retailers and are very popular among consumers.                           end coffeehouses are able to command (as opposed to the
	 Despite its relative youth, GMCR — also listed in the                            economy pricing of McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts).
at-home segment — has single-handedly commercialized the                                                                               continued >
one-cup brew. The K-Cup has quickly established itself among
iconic brands and, while GMCR serves a different target
consumer, we have classified it in the at-home category because
of its self-brewing characteristics. GMCR’s trading multiples
have experienced considerable volatility over the past several
years. As the K-Cup gained a sizable following, the company’s
stock price soared; more recently, however, the impending
expiration of its key patents has placed GMCR’s market
dominance at risk, and its valuation multiples have come down
dramatically (the company traded at more than 15x EBITDA
at the end of 2011).




6 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Food and Beverage Index

    S&P 500                  GTCF Food and Beverage Index                    GTCF Coffee Index

200%




150%




100%




 50%




   0%
         June     Sep     Dec     Mar     June Sep        Dec      Mar    June Sep         Dec     Mar     June Sep        Dec     Mar     June Sep         Dec     Mar   June
                 2007                        2008                            2009                             2010                            2011                    2012

Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ




	 In terms of stock performance, the GTCF Coffee Index                                                   Conclusion
(consisting of the 10 publicly traded companies listed on the                                            Coffee is a staple beverage for millions around the world.
previous page) has outperformed both the GTCF Food and                                                   Competition in the United States is fierce, with a handful of brands
Beverage Index, and the S&P 500 for the past several years. The                                          controlling more than 85% of total retail market share. The U.S.
fluctuations in the GTCF Coffee Index during 2011 and 2012                                               coffee market has been reshaped in the past two decades — first
are largely due to the volatility of GMCR’s stock. As we have                                            by Starbucks, which introduced many Americans to a traditional
seen, GMCR’s stock enjoyed a tremendous upswing in the                                                   European taste, and more recently with the advent of one-shot
first half of 2011 as one-cup brews became immensely popular,                                            brewing, which allows a consumer to prepare a high-quality
but the company has watched its stock price fall since then                                              cup without making a whole pot. Further up the supply chain,
because of expected losses from its pending patent expiration.                                           recent trends have included vertical integration (through retailers’
In contrast, stock prices for Starbucks, Caribou Coffee, Peet’s                                          purchase of roasters), consolidation within the roasting space, and a
Coffee & Tea, and Tim Hortons — all of which have stand-                                                 focus on fair trade coffee.
alone retail locations — have seen slight fluctuations but have                                          	 M&A activity has played a key role in reshaping the coffee
typically increased since 2009.                                                                          industry. Consolidation among roasters and vertical integration
                                                                                                         by retailers buying roasters are being complemented by notable
                                                                                                         purchases of local and regional independent coffee shops. This
                                                                                                         activity augments existing organic growth strategies both in the
                                                                                                         United States and internationally. We expect M&A to continue
                                                                                                         playing a pivotal role in the coffee industry as participants face new
                                                                                                         challenges in the coming years. •



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The factual statements and data from third-party sources contained herein are taken from sources believed to be reliable, but such statements are made without representation as to accuracy or
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7 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012

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Grant Thornton - Food Snapshot Summer 2012

  • 1. Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Summer 2012 Deals continue to perk Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC Overview Contact information (GTCF) is pleased to present its semiannual The food and beverage industry has been a very active Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot for sector for M&A activity since the beginning of the Brian Basil summer 2012. This snapshot contains timely year, and there are indications that this trend will Director Grant Thornton Corporate Finance commentary on key factors affecting the food continue. Reported deal value exceeded $6 billion T 248.233.6930 and beverage industry, an overview of trends during the first six months of 2012, a 30% increase E brian.basil@us.gt.com in M&A and a summary of industry stock over the same period last year. Driving this activity Erik Egerer market performance. This issue also features are factors that have been addressed in earlier issues Manager a section focused on the coffee sector, which of this publication, such as the move toward healthier Grant Thornton Corporate Finance includes trends, M&A activity and public lifestyles, budget-conscious consumers and food safety T 248.213.4227 E erik.egerer@us.gt.com market information. concerns (and their associated compliance costs). These Through offices in more than 100 factors continue to present industry participants with countries worldwide, the partners and challenges and competitive pressures that often lead employees of Grant Thornton International to M&A activity. Recently, another trend has had a Ltd member firms serve several hundred generally positive effect on many food and beverage clients ranging from food and beverage participants, global conglomerates to middle-market particularly downstream. companies in all sectors of the industry. continued > GTCF teams have advised on more than 50 food and beverage industry M&A transactions over the past three years.
  • 2. Commodity price index Trends in the metrics Total U.S.-target food and beverage M&A activity for the first Crude oil Corn Wheat half of 2012 was essentially flat compared with the same period 400% last year, which was one of the strongest six-month periods since 2007. However, deal value increased by 30% (from $5 billion to $6.5 billion) because several large transactions, including the 300% following, were announced in the first half of the year: • Kellogg acquired The Wimble Company (which sells snack 200% products under the Pringles brand) from Procter & Gamble for $2.7 billion. This acquisition helps Kellogg expand its global snack business by adding to its existing brands such 100% as Keebler and Cheez-It. • Italian dairy company Parmalat announced in May 12 its 0% intent to acquire Lactalis American Group, a U.S.-based Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct cheese manufacturer, for $904 million. This acquisition will 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 facilitate Parmalat’s entry into the U.S. market and expand Source: International Monetary Fund the company’s product line. • In May 2012, refined sugar processor Imperial Sugar sold its Falling commodity prices stake in Wholesome Sweeteners to Arlon Capital Partners As illustrated in the food and beverage commodity price index for $177 million. This transaction was completed in an effort (CPI) chart shown above, commodity prices have subsided to increase Imperial Sugar’s liquidity because the company from the highs seen in early 2011. Wheat and corn prices had been facing financial problems due to rising input costs declined 25% and 13%, respectively, over last year’s. Crude oil (mainly raw sugar prices). Imperial Sugar was sold to Louis prices dropped 4% over the past 12 months, largely as a result Dreyfus Commodities for $150 million in June 2012. of increased OPEC production, looming European economic • The world’s no. 1 brewer (by sales), Anheuser-Busch InBev, concerns and slower growth in emerging markets (such as recently offered to purchase the 65% share in Mexico’s China and India), whose tremendous demand had previously Grupo Modelo that it does not already own. Grupo pushed up commodity prices. While prices remain high on Modelo produces the Corona brand, which is the best- a historical basis, the recent softening in the commodity selling imported beer in the United States. The deal, which market is a positive sign for the food and beverage industry. contemplates a value of $29 billion for Grupo Modelo, has Higher commodity prices have exerted considerable pressure been approved by Modelo’s board of directors. on margins in recent years, but that pressure is now easing. continued > Meanwhile, consumers worried about their budgets have been resistant to accepting price increases; indeed, many of them Food and beverage industry M&A activity have been choosing lower-cost items instead. While most # of announced transactions Total disclosed deal value ($ billions) observers feel, at least for the moment, that the slowdown in # Transactions Deal value ($ billions) the Chinese economy is temporary, the current commodity 400 $120 market is making it somewhat easier for food and beverage companies to operate profitably. The longevity of this trend 350 $100 will depend largely on whether China resumes its aggressive 300 growth and whether and when the European economic crisis $80 can be averted/addressed. 250 For the time being, the benefits associated with lower 200 $60 commodity prices are accruing primarily to producers, distributors and retailers. Consumer prices have not yet responded — the 150 $40 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% rise in the food and 100 beverage CPI over the past 12 months — but if commodity prices $20 continue to fall, consumers might still benefit. 50 0 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H 2011 1H 2012 Sources: GTCF research; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ 2 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
  • 3. The GTCF Food and Beverage Index depicted at left Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Food and Beverage Index reflects data from industry participants that are broadly GTCF Food and Beverage Index S&P 500 categorized as either food processors, food distributors, food retailers or beverage companies. This data shows that food 160% and beverage companies have outperformed the S&P 500 for 140% the past several years, and the gap appears to be widening. We expect this gap to widen further, especially if commodity prices 120% continue to ease. And while overall public market performance remains slightly below its 2007 peak, the food and beverage 100% industry is performing well above 2007 levels. Although not all participants are performing uniformly well, the industry taken 80% as a whole is a bright spot in today’s economy. Another way to look at public market performance is by 60% examining EV/EBITDA multiples, which provide insight into how valuable a company is when both debt and equity are taken 40% Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Mar into account. These multiples also allow observers to compare 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 the values of companies that have different business models. Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ As shown in the chart below, EBITDA multiples for all categories have risen since last year. These increases are attributable to growth expectations in the near term as well The prevalence of larger M&A transactions is a strong as the likelihood of profitability enhancements resulting from indication of a robust deal market. Accordingly, deal activity commodity price declines. in the food and beverage sector is expected to remain healthy Notably, food and beverage companies in the United States through 2012, continuing the trend we have observed over the appear to be performing very well compared with those in the past few years. Both financial and strategic buyers are flush European Union (EU) and those whose revenue is heavily with cash and are under pressure to deploy it. Further, barring EU-dependent. Considering the present state of the European any action by the federal government, the capital gains tax rate economy, it should come as no surprise that EU companies will increase from 15% to 20% at the end of the year. In 2010, are trading more than 2.5x lower than their U.S. counterparts. the market expected capital gains rates to rise during 2011, so Additionally, their average valuation levels have fallen during the we saw heavier-than-normal deal activity, particularly in the past 12 months, in stark contrast to improving valuations in the fourth quarter of 2010. We expect that 2012 could exhibit a United States. Unless and until the economic issues in the EU are similar pattern. Companies considering a sale will likely try to resolved, we expect these differences in valuation to persist. complete the sale by the end of the year. continued > Food and beverage EBITDA multiples Average metrics Historical metrics % of 52-week Enterprise LTM LTM EV/ 06/30/11 Category EV/EBIT high value ($M) EBITDA % EBITDA EV/EBITDA Food distributors 83.0% $ 7,812 4.0% 12.0x 9.5x 9.4x Food retailers 82.7% 28,541 13.5% 15.4x 10.4x 10.0x Food processors 92.6% 26,525 16.1% 13.9x 11.2x 10.4x Beverage companies 94.9% 42,566 22.7% 16.0x 12.5x 11.1x U.S. average 88.3% 26,361 14.1% 14.3x 10.9x 10.2x EU average 87.2% 54,522 11.3% 10.4x 8.3x 8.8x As of 06/30/2012 Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ 3 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
  • 4. Sector focus — coffee As one of the most widely enjoyed beverages in the United States and globally, coffee comprises a critical sector of the food and beverage industry. Made from beans harvested in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, and subsequently roasted to create a unique flavor, coffee has become as much an expression of individual taste as the automobile has. The industry is segmented into growers, roasters and retailers, with retail sales occurring along several paths. One is the at-home market, which includes instant coffee along with ground and whole gourmet beans sold in grocery stores or coffee shops. Another is the away-from-home market, which includes coffee shops, combination stores such as Tim Hortons, and operations such as McDonald’s. The third segment is one that we highlight because of its recent growth: the single-serve coffee market, as epitomized by Keurig’s K-Cup®. In reviewing the coffee industry as a whole, we focus most closely on the retail channels because they drive sales throughout the sector. Further, many retailers such as Starbucks look to integrated roasting to assure quality and provide consistency across all stores. Vertical integration is also a social mechanism that allows retailers to encourage the sourcing of beans from fair trade growers, which stress reasonable working conditions and fair wages. Over the past several years, demand for coffee has increased across all retail sectors, including at-home coffee, specialty coffee served at cafés, and one-cup coffee brewers. While these subsegments have historically been somewhat distinct, the notion that companies sell products that fit into only one of these categories is no longer true — premium coffee is being sold at supermarkets for at-home purposes, higher-end coffee shops are now offering ground and whole beans, and several companies appear to be interested in entering the single-serve • As consumer preferences shift to higher-end roasts, coffee sector. companies such as McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts and Tim Hortons, all of which are commonly known for selling • Primary brands for the at-home coffee segment include lower-quality blends, are now beginning to offer freshly Folgers (owned by J.M. Smucker), Maxwell House (owned brewed premium roast coffee. McDonald’s has even started by Kraft), and Nescafé (owned by Nestlé). Premium blends a coffeehouse-style chain called McCafé that features a line continue to penetrate the supermarket channel; Starbucks of specialty drinks. has introduced Via Instant Coffee, and J.M. Smucker has acquired the licensing rights to sell packaged Dunkin’ • A newer product that has become widely successful over Donuts coffee. the past 10 years is single-cup coffee. Keurig — owned by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) — currently • Even though companies such as Starbucks, Caribou Coffee, leads the single-serve coffee market but faces increased and Peet’s Coffee & Tea offer at-home coffee, their primary competition because its main patents related to the K-Cup focus is on serving gourmet coffee in the form of cappuccino, are set to expire in September 2012. Kroger and Safeway latte and espresso at their cafés. These coffeehouses have are already planning to launch private-label coffee pods become more and more popular because they offer a place that work with the Keurig machine. In an attempt to hedge where patrons can study, socialize or simply relax with a projected losses, GMCR has partnered with Caribou hot (or cold) cup of joe in hand. Increasing demand for this Coffee, Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts for production of atmosphere has driven industry growth. these brands of coffee in its K-Cups. continued > 4 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
  • 5. Coffee beans trade as a commodity whose price is Notable transactions dependent on supply from the once-per-year harvest along Almost 40 transactions have been announced within the coffee with demand trends. The companies discussed earlier in this market since the start of 2011. Some of these transactions are article have performed well on average, despite the recent described below: volatility in the coffee bean market. The price of coffee beans has fluctuated much like the prices of wheat, corn and • In February 2011, J.M. Smucker acquired Rowland Coffee crude oil, increasing through April 2011 and then trending Roasters, maker of the leading Hispanic coffee brands Café downward. As shown in the chart below, coffee bean prices Bustelo and Café Pilon, for more than $350 million. This rose 33% from November 2010 to April 2011 as adverse acquisition improves J.M. Smucker’s place among Hispanic weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia limited the coffee drinkers in the United States. supply of coffee beans. Additionally, stronger demand from emerging markets put upward pressure on prices. This, plus • In October 2011, J.M. Smucker acquired a majority of increased fuel and packaging costs, translated to higher retail Sara Lee’s North American foodservice coffee and tea coffee prices for consumers as roasters and retailers cautiously business for $430 million. This acquisition will bolster passed on rising expenditures. For example, J.M. Smucker (the J.M. Smucker’s position in the coffee market. Sara Lee sold manufacturer of Folgers, Millstone and packaged Dunkin’ the majority stake because the unbranded business faced Donuts coffee) raised prices for its coffee brands sold in the challenges to growth. United States by 10% in February 2011 and 11% in May 2011. This followed two price increases in 2010. And Starbucks • Sara Lee recently split up into two pure-play public marked up the price of packaged coffee by 17% in July 2011. companies: a meat-focused Hillshire Brands Company As coffee bean prices have dropped 32% over the past 12 and an international coffee and tea company called D.E. months in response to expectations of a robust harvest from Masters Blend. (The Sara Lee brand has not completely Brazil, companies have reduced retail prices, although not to ceased to exist; it is being used for certain bakery and deli the same degree as input costs have fallen. For example, both products distributed by Hillshire Brands.) Before debuting Kraft and J.M. Smucker have lowered their coffee prices by 6% D.E. Masters Blend as a stand-alone business, Sara Lee twice — once in August 2011 and again in May 2012. chose to strengthen its offerings through acquisitions, Consumer prices tend to be somewhat insulated by short- which included The Coffee Company (Netherlands), Tea term swings in coffee bean prices due to extensive use of hedging. Forté (United States) and Expresso.Coffee (Brazil). However, if changes in input pricing persist, retail costs will eventually rise or fall because hedging is short-term by nature. • Diversification through M&A has become a key strategy for Starbucks. Most recently, the coffee giant announced its intent to buy Bay Bread and its La Boulange bakery brand Price of coffee beans — U.S. cents per pound (lb) for $100 million in order to improve its food offerings. 250 Moreover, Starbucks acquired juicer Evolution Fresh for $30 million during November 2011 in an effort to expand into the health and wellness sector. In addition to pursuing 200 acquisitions, Starbucks plans to open a new Tazo tea shop this year and has decided to offer its own single-cup brew 150 called Verismo. The company also expects to begin selling beer and wine in various locations in Atlanta and southern 100 California by the end of 2012. Starbucks is in the early stages of its diversified growth strategy, and while some 50 experts claim the company might face growth challenges, others are intrigued and believe that Starbucks will 0 continue to succeed. Jan Jun Dec Jan Jun Dec Jan Jun Dec Jan Jun 2009 2010 2011 2012 Although M&A transactions involving retail operations Source: International Coffee Organization command the headlines, a considerable amount of deal activity occurs within the roasting market; some retail operators purchase roasters in an effort to secure vertical integration. Since 2011, there have been 13 reported transactions involving roasters (a sizable number of deals are not announced publicly). continued > 5 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
  • 6. Analysis of a cross-section of publicly traded companies in the coffee space Revenue ($M) Enterprise EV/ Coffee companies Description/key brands HQ LTM 6/20/12 value EBITDA At-home Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NasdaqGS:GMCR) Single-cup cofee United States $3,472 $3,699 5.6x Kraft Foods (NasdaqGS:KFT) Maxwell House United States 54,885 95,322 10.9x Nestlé S.A. (SWX:NESN) Nescafé Switzerland 89,622 200,816 11.5x The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) Folgers, Millstone United States 5,526 10,181 9.1x Average $38,376 $77,504 9.3x Away-from-home Caribou Coffee Company (NasdaqGS:CBOU) Roaster and retailer United States 335 230 8.4x Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NasdaqGS:PEET) Roaster and retailer United States 378 745 16.3x Starbucks Corporation (NasdaqGS:SBUX) Roaster and retailer United States 12,596 38,761 16.3x Tim Hortons (TSX:THI) Quick service restaurant/roaster and retailer Canada 2,937 8,619 12.5x Average $4,061 $12,089 13.4x Other Coffee Holding Co (NasdaqCM:JVA) Distributes coffee to independent roasters. United States 177 35 70.6x 1 Farmer Brothers Co. (NasdaqGM:FARM) Roaster and distributor United States 494 139 n/a Average $336 $87 n/a Group average $17,042 $35,855 11.3x As of 6/30/2012 Sources: GTCF research; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ 1 Data point excluded as an outlier Public company comparables The away-from-home segment includes four well-known The at-home coffee industry is largely composed of diversified coffee shop chains whose EBITDA trading multiples average food companies; coffee accounts for a minority of sales for three 13.4x — far higher than multiples for the at-home sector. The of the four participants listed in this category. For example, market is clearly dominated by Starbucks, whose revenue is only 10% of Kraft’s total revenue for the year ended December more than four times greater than that of Tim Hortons, its 2011 came from coffee sales, and less than half (42%) of J.M. closest competitor. However, the segment has been under Smucker’s total revenue for the year ended April 2012 was increasing pressure because chains such as McDonald’s and derived from the retail sale of U.S. coffee. However, we have Dunkin’ Donuts have introduced premium blend coffee. included these companies in our analysis because they own Valuation multiples, however, remain very strong in the away- iconic coffee brands such as Maxwell House, Nescafé, Folgers from-home sector at more than 13x EBITDA. These multiples and Millstone. These well-known brands dominate shelf space largely reflect the premium prices Starbucks and other high- at major retailers and are very popular among consumers. end coffeehouses are able to command (as opposed to the Despite its relative youth, GMCR — also listed in the economy pricing of McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts). at-home segment — has single-handedly commercialized the continued > one-cup brew. The K-Cup has quickly established itself among iconic brands and, while GMCR serves a different target consumer, we have classified it in the at-home category because of its self-brewing characteristics. GMCR’s trading multiples have experienced considerable volatility over the past several years. As the K-Cup gained a sizable following, the company’s stock price soared; more recently, however, the impending expiration of its key patents has placed GMCR’s market dominance at risk, and its valuation multiples have come down dramatically (the company traded at more than 15x EBITDA at the end of 2011). 6 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012
  • 7. Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Food and Beverage Index S&P 500 GTCF Food and Beverage Index GTCF Coffee Index 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Public company filings; certain financial information provided by S&P Capital IQ In terms of stock performance, the GTCF Coffee Index Conclusion (consisting of the 10 publicly traded companies listed on the Coffee is a staple beverage for millions around the world. previous page) has outperformed both the GTCF Food and Competition in the United States is fierce, with a handful of brands Beverage Index, and the S&P 500 for the past several years. The controlling more than 85% of total retail market share. The U.S. fluctuations in the GTCF Coffee Index during 2011 and 2012 coffee market has been reshaped in the past two decades — first are largely due to the volatility of GMCR’s stock. As we have by Starbucks, which introduced many Americans to a traditional seen, GMCR’s stock enjoyed a tremendous upswing in the European taste, and more recently with the advent of one-shot first half of 2011 as one-cup brews became immensely popular, brewing, which allows a consumer to prepare a high-quality but the company has watched its stock price fall since then cup without making a whole pot. Further up the supply chain, because of expected losses from its pending patent expiration. recent trends have included vertical integration (through retailers’ In contrast, stock prices for Starbucks, Caribou Coffee, Peet’s purchase of roasters), consolidation within the roasting space, and a Coffee & Tea, and Tim Hortons — all of which have stand- focus on fair trade coffee. alone retail locations — have seen slight fluctuations but have M&A activity has played a key role in reshaping the coffee typically increased since 2009. industry. Consolidation among roasters and vertical integration by retailers buying roasters are being complemented by notable purchases of local and regional independent coffee shops. This activity augments existing organic growth strategies both in the United States and internationally. We expect M&A to continue playing a pivotal role in the coffee industry as participants face new challenges in the coming years. • About Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC provides boutique investment banking services to privately held middle-market businesses in the United States and around the world. As a recognized advisor on middle-market mergers and acquisitions, we offer a range of investment banking services including sell-side advisory, buy-side advisory, management buyouts, restructurings and capital raising. Grant Thornton LLP provides investment banking services through its wholly owned broker-dealer subsidiary Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC, member FINRA, SIPC. About Grant Thornton LLP The people in the independent firms of Grant Thornton International Ltd provide personalized attention and the highest-quality service to public and private clients in more than 100 countries. Grant Thornton LLP is the U.S. member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd, one of the six global audit, tax and advisory organizations. Grant Thornton International Ltd and its member firms are not a worldwide partnership, as each member firm is a separate and distinct legal entity. The factual statements and data from third-party sources contained herein are taken from sources believed to be reliable, but such statements are made without representation as to accuracy or completeness or otherwise. Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC does not engage in the business of recommending or effecting transactions in securities. The above information is presented solely in connection with describing Grant Thornton Corporate Finance LLC’s mergers and acquisitions services, and should not be considered as constituting a research report or as providing information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. © 2012 Grant Thornton LLP All rights reserved U.S. member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd 7 Food & Beverage Industry Snapshot – Summer 2012