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THE HALIFAX
        INDEX
AN ECONOMIC GUT CHECK AND
       IMPETUS FOR ACTION




        FRED MORLEY
CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE VP,
     GREATER HALIFAX PARTNERSHIP



                   MAY 24TH, 2012
Halifax Index 2012 Presentation
S UC C E S S : WE ’L L K NOW IT WHE N WE G E T IT
T HE HA L IFA X S C OR E C A R D
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X

• A gut check on our performance
• Share timely and relevant information in narrative
  form
• Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to
  our Economic Strategy
• Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right
  questions

                                        ?      ?       ?   ?
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X A P P R OA C H

• Broadening the definition of economic progress
• Working with research capable organizations to find
  the most accurate measures of success
• Benchmarking our progress against others
• Don’t point fingers, build partnerships
INDE X OUT C OME S

•   A strategy progress report
•   An economic gut check for Halifax
•   Business Climate Review
•   Quality of Place Report
•   Action inventory of Challenges and Opportunities
•   Insight for action & alignment
•   Special reports
     – Immigration
     – Business Confidence
     – Regional Centre Demographics
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X WOR DL E
Quality of Life




People
         Economic           Economic
         Progress            Growth




          Sustainability
Labour
         Education
                      Force


                              Workforce
Population
                               Quality
                People
P OP UL AT ION G R OWT H




Census Metropolitan   2006 Population     2011       Actual   % Growth
        Area                            Population   Growth
     St. John’s          181,113         196,966     15,853     8.8%

      Regina             194,971         210,566     15,595     8.0%

      Quebec             719,153         765,706     46,553     6.5%

      Halifax            372,858         390,328     17,470     4.7%

     Victoria            330,088         344,615     14,527     4.4%

      London             457,720         474,786     17,066     3.7%
A WE A K E NING MIG R AT ION OUT L OOK

                         Annual migration estimates, Halifax
                             Source: Statistics Canada
2,000            1,896



1,500
                                                                        1,231

1,000



  500



    0
         International                 Interprovincial         Intraprovincial

 -500



-1,000                                           -852

                                   2006-07    2010-11
S MA L L E R C IT IE S OF F E R ING C OMP E T IT ION
                         International Immigrants to Atlantic Canadian Cities
                             Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
3,000



2,500



2,000



1,500



1,000



 500



   0




                                  2007    2008    2009   2010    2011
INT ’L S T UDE NT S A S A N OP P OR T UNIT Y

         International Students Present and Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent
                                            Resident, 2005-09
                              Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada


                                                                    13,546




                                                                                                   6,504




      2,770

                                      1,291
                                                                              823                           856
                296                            373

Newfoundland and Labrador          Prince Edward Island               Nova Scotia                  New Brunswick
              International Students Present         Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident
Halifax Index 2012 Presentation
Halifax Index 2012 Presentation
Construction
              Consumer                   Commercial
              Behaviour                    Space



                                                       Gateway
    Sectors
                                                      Movement




  Gross
                                                          Business
Domestic                  Economy                        Confidence
 Product
E C ONOMIC S IZE
G DP P E R P E R S ON
A S TA R T-UP B OOM
 % Change in the # of Business Establishments (2003–2010)*

              Edmundston               -8.5%
                Fredericton                       -1.3%
                  Miramichi     -12.3%
                   Moncton                         -1.0%
                  Saint John                                     1.8%
           New Brunswick                   -5.9%
               Cape Breton                 -6.0%
                        Truro                                             8.7%
                      Halifax                                                    13.3%
                 Lunenburg                                                          15.6%
                        Digby           -7.6%
               Nova Scotia                                         3.7%
               Summerside                         -1.2%
            Charlottetown                                                  10.0%
      Prince Edward Island                       -1.9%
              Corner Brook -15.7%
                   St. John's                                    1.6%
Newfoundland and Labrador                             0.0%
*CSDs only (i.e. the City of Moncton – not the Moncton region.
Source: Canadian Business Patterns (2011). Statistics Canada
C ONS UME R S
OF F IC E C ONS T R UC T ION
G AT E WAY R E C OV E R ING R A P IDLY

    Activity at Halifax International Airport
 Source: Halifax International Airport Authority
    29,753
                                      29,263


                                     3,594,164




                                                                Growth of Port of Halifax indicators, indexed to 2007
   3,469,062
                                                                               Source: Port of Halifax

                                                                 1.38
                                                                                  1.33

     2007                              2011

  Air Passengers (En/Deplaned)     Air Cargo (Tonnes)
                                                                                                                  0.84
                                                                                                       0.77




                                                        Cruise Passengers   Cruise Ships         Port Cargo     TEUs

                                                                                         2007   2011
B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E HOL DING S T E A DY
                                Halifax Business Confidence Index
                              Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey
100

 80

 60

                                                                            38.5
 40
                                          29.9
             25.6      26.1
                                                             20.2                              20.2
 20

  0
          Overall   Halifax           Dartmouth         Other HRM      New Business   Established Business
 -20                                                                    (<10 years)       (10+ years)


 -40

 -60

 -80

-100
                                           Aug-11   Apr-12
FA C TOR S IN B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E
Health

   Affordability              Community




                   Quality            Arts,
Safety                            Culture, and
                   of Place        Recreation
A S A F E R C IT Y, P E OP L E F E E L ING S A F E R

         Total crime index, Canada and benchmark
                            cities
                  Source: Statistics Canada



                                                        131.4

             96.8      101.9
  82.7                                          82.4              83.7
                                  56.1
                                                                                           Share of Halifax residents who feel safe...
                                                                                             Source: Halifax Regional Police Survey

 Canada    Halifax   St. John's Quebec     London      Regina   Victoria                87%                        90%                   89%     87%
                                                                                86%                        86%
                                 City

                               2006      2010




                                                                           ...In your neighborhood   ...Where you work and shop   Satisfaction with peace and
                                                                                                                                             order

                                                                                                            2007     2011
HA L IFA X INT E R NAT IONA L LY C OMP E T IT IV E

                                         Cost-of-living and quality-of-living indices
                                                   Source: fDi intelligence

                     110.14                109.42              110.84                                  110.05
                                                                                            107.87
          102.31                                     104.44              101.78    104.44
  99.33                                                                                                           96.58      96.68

                                83.02




 Boston   Seattle   Victoria   Raleigh    Toronto   Montreal Vancouver Saskatoon   Quebec   Regina   Halifax (NS) London   St. John's
  (MA)     (WA)                 (NC)                                                                               (ON)

                                                           Cost    Quality
HOUS ING C OS T S
HA L IFA X A S A N A C T IV E C IT Y

               Activity levels during leisure time, active or moderately active
                                   Source: Statistics Canada

                                                                                       64.0%

              57.7%                                          56.6%
                                                                             53.9%
    52.1%
                                             50.2%
                              44.5%




   Canada   Halifax        St. John's    Quebec City       London          Regina    Victoria
                                          2005   2010
A G R OWING A R T S A ND C ULT UR E S E C TOR

                    Employment in arts, culture and recreation, 000s
                             Source: Statistics Canada

                                   13.8


                                                                                11.7




                                                        8.0
      7.6




                  3.4                                                  3.7




   Halifax   St. John's       Quebec City          London          Regina    Victoria
                                          2006   2011
B US INE S S E NG A G E ME NT
B UT A R E WE HA P P Y ?
Transportation         Environment




                                                    Municipal
   Density                                             Fiscal
                                                   Sustainability
                         Sustainability



S P E C IA L TOP IC : DE MOG R A P HIC S OF T HE
R E G IONA L C E NT R E
DE NS IT Y IS C R IT IC A L TO S US TA INA B IL IT Y
Source: Canadian Urban Institute
A NE E D F OR R E NE WE D F OC US ON T HE
R E G IONA L C E NT R E
MOV ING P E OP L E
G OOD E NV IR ONME NTA L P E R F OR MA NC E
                      Water Quality by Province
       Source: Waterproof - Canada's Drinking Water Report Card

                                              A
                                        A-
      B+                   B+
  B                B            B
                                                     B- B-
                                                                  C+
                                                                       C

               D
                                                                                                          Air quality measures, 2011
                                                                                                        (# of test sites in parentheses)
                                                                                                         Source: Environment Canada

                                                                                                                                               34.37

                                                                                             30.27




Nova Scotia Newfoundland   Quebec      Ontario    Saskatchewan    British                                                       20.44
                                                                 Columbia
                                                                                                               15.52
                                2006   2011                                                                                                                     13.12

                                                                                                 8.77
                                                                             7.18

                                                                                                                                   3.13                            2.27
                                                                                1.36                              1.05
                                                                                                                                                  0.00

                                                                            Halifax (4)    St. John's (1)   Quebec City (6)    London (3)     Regina (1)    Victoria (7)




                                                                                          Ozone (parts per billion)           Fine Particulate Matter (µg/m3)
F IS C A L S TA B IL IT Y
So what have we learned?
WE DON’T K NOW A L L T HE A NS WE R S

• But we know the questions to ask
Population              Healthy
Growth?                 Heart?
             Business
             Climate?
Major                    Sustain
Projects?   Quality of   Halifax?
            Life?
HOW DO WE DO A L L T HIS ?
HA L IFA X NE E DS A C ULT UR E OF
PA R T NE R S HIP & INNOVAT ION.
Questions

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Halifax Index 2012 Presentation

  • 1. THE HALIFAX INDEX AN ECONOMIC GUT CHECK AND IMPETUS FOR ACTION FRED MORLEY CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE VP, GREATER HALIFAX PARTNERSHIP MAY 24TH, 2012
  • 3. S UC C E S S : WE ’L L K NOW IT WHE N WE G E T IT
  • 4. T HE HA L IFA X S C OR E C A R D
  • 5. T HE HA L IFA X INDE X • A gut check on our performance • Share timely and relevant information in narrative form • Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to our Economic Strategy • Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right questions ? ? ? ?
  • 6. T HE HA L IFA X INDE X A P P R OA C H • Broadening the definition of economic progress • Working with research capable organizations to find the most accurate measures of success • Benchmarking our progress against others • Don’t point fingers, build partnerships
  • 7. INDE X OUT C OME S • A strategy progress report • An economic gut check for Halifax • Business Climate Review • Quality of Place Report • Action inventory of Challenges and Opportunities • Insight for action & alignment • Special reports – Immigration – Business Confidence – Regional Centre Demographics
  • 8. T HE HA L IFA X INDE X WOR DL E
  • 9. Quality of Life People Economic Economic Progress Growth Sustainability
  • 10. Labour Education Force Workforce Population Quality People
  • 11. P OP UL AT ION G R OWT H Census Metropolitan 2006 Population 2011 Actual % Growth Area Population Growth St. John’s 181,113 196,966 15,853 8.8% Regina 194,971 210,566 15,595 8.0% Quebec 719,153 765,706 46,553 6.5% Halifax 372,858 390,328 17,470 4.7% Victoria 330,088 344,615 14,527 4.4% London 457,720 474,786 17,066 3.7%
  • 12. A WE A K E NING MIG R AT ION OUT L OOK Annual migration estimates, Halifax Source: Statistics Canada 2,000 1,896 1,500 1,231 1,000 500 0 International Interprovincial Intraprovincial -500 -1,000 -852 2006-07 2010-11
  • 13. S MA L L E R C IT IE S OF F E R ING C OMP E T IT ION International Immigrants to Atlantic Canadian Cities Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 14. INT ’L S T UDE NT S A S A N OP P OR T UNIT Y International Students Present and Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident, 2005-09 Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada 13,546 6,504 2,770 1,291 823 856 296 373 Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick International Students Present Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident
  • 17. Construction Consumer Commercial Behaviour Space Gateway Sectors Movement Gross Business Domestic Economy Confidence Product
  • 18. E C ONOMIC S IZE
  • 19. G DP P E R P E R S ON
  • 20. A S TA R T-UP B OOM % Change in the # of Business Establishments (2003–2010)* Edmundston -8.5% Fredericton -1.3% Miramichi -12.3% Moncton -1.0% Saint John 1.8% New Brunswick -5.9% Cape Breton -6.0% Truro 8.7% Halifax 13.3% Lunenburg 15.6% Digby -7.6% Nova Scotia 3.7% Summerside -1.2% Charlottetown 10.0% Prince Edward Island -1.9% Corner Brook -15.7% St. John's 1.6% Newfoundland and Labrador 0.0% *CSDs only (i.e. the City of Moncton – not the Moncton region. Source: Canadian Business Patterns (2011). Statistics Canada
  • 21. C ONS UME R S
  • 22. OF F IC E C ONS T R UC T ION
  • 23. G AT E WAY R E C OV E R ING R A P IDLY Activity at Halifax International Airport Source: Halifax International Airport Authority 29,753 29,263 3,594,164 Growth of Port of Halifax indicators, indexed to 2007 3,469,062 Source: Port of Halifax 1.38 1.33 2007 2011 Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Air Cargo (Tonnes) 0.84 0.77 Cruise Passengers Cruise Ships Port Cargo TEUs 2007 2011
  • 24. B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E HOL DING S T E A DY Halifax Business Confidence Index Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey 100 80 60 38.5 40 29.9 25.6 26.1 20.2 20.2 20 0 Overall Halifax Dartmouth Other HRM New Business Established Business -20 (<10 years) (10+ years) -40 -60 -80 -100 Aug-11 Apr-12
  • 25. FA C TOR S IN B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E
  • 26. Health Affordability Community Quality Arts, Safety Culture, and of Place Recreation
  • 27. A S A F E R C IT Y, P E OP L E F E E L ING S A F E R Total crime index, Canada and benchmark cities Source: Statistics Canada 131.4 96.8 101.9 82.7 82.4 83.7 56.1 Share of Halifax residents who feel safe... Source: Halifax Regional Police Survey Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec London Regina Victoria 87% 90% 89% 87% 86% 86% City 2006 2010 ...In your neighborhood ...Where you work and shop Satisfaction with peace and order 2007 2011
  • 28. HA L IFA X INT E R NAT IONA L LY C OMP E T IT IV E Cost-of-living and quality-of-living indices Source: fDi intelligence 110.14 109.42 110.84 110.05 107.87 102.31 104.44 101.78 104.44 99.33 96.58 96.68 83.02 Boston Seattle Victoria Raleigh Toronto Montreal Vancouver Saskatoon Quebec Regina Halifax (NS) London St. John's (MA) (WA) (NC) (ON) Cost Quality
  • 29. HOUS ING C OS T S
  • 30. HA L IFA X A S A N A C T IV E C IT Y Activity levels during leisure time, active or moderately active Source: Statistics Canada 64.0% 57.7% 56.6% 53.9% 52.1% 50.2% 44.5% Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria 2005 2010
  • 31. A G R OWING A R T S A ND C ULT UR E S E C TOR Employment in arts, culture and recreation, 000s Source: Statistics Canada 13.8 11.7 8.0 7.6 3.4 3.7 Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria 2006 2011
  • 32. B US INE S S E NG A G E ME NT
  • 33. B UT A R E WE HA P P Y ?
  • 34. Transportation Environment Municipal Density Fiscal Sustainability Sustainability S P E C IA L TOP IC : DE MOG R A P HIC S OF T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E
  • 35. DE NS IT Y IS C R IT IC A L TO S US TA INA B IL IT Y
  • 37. A NE E D F OR R E NE WE D F OC US ON T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E
  • 38. MOV ING P E OP L E
  • 39. G OOD E NV IR ONME NTA L P E R F OR MA NC E Water Quality by Province Source: Waterproof - Canada's Drinking Water Report Card A A- B+ B+ B B B B- B- C+ C D Air quality measures, 2011 (# of test sites in parentheses) Source: Environment Canada 34.37 30.27 Nova Scotia Newfoundland Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan British 20.44 Columbia 15.52 2006 2011 13.12 8.77 7.18 3.13 2.27 1.36 1.05 0.00 Halifax (4) St. John's (1) Quebec City (6) London (3) Regina (1) Victoria (7) Ozone (parts per billion) Fine Particulate Matter (µg/m3)
  • 40. F IS C A L S TA B IL IT Y
  • 41. So what have we learned?
  • 42. WE DON’T K NOW A L L T HE A NS WE R S • But we know the questions to ask
  • 43. Population Healthy Growth? Heart? Business Climate?
  • 44. Major Sustain Projects? Quality of Halifax? Life?
  • 45. HOW DO WE DO A L L T HIS ?
  • 46. HA L IFA X NE E DS A C ULT UR E OF PA R T NE R S HIP & INNOVAT ION.