Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil
Imagining the Future

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Question:
Climate Change:
A: It’s a very serious looming crisis
B: Confused; not sure what to make of it
C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has
always been variable

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Question:
Transportation without Oil:
A: Yes, I believe it’s possible
B: I don’t know if it’s possible
C: No, it’s not possible.

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Before Oil…
Remembering the Past
Four million years of walking

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Walking = 4,000,000 years
Vancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km
10,000 years = 1 kilometre
The last 100 years = 10 metres

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Petrolia, Ontario
1858

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As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007
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CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
= 1,000 tonnes a second

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Guy Dauncey 2011
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+ 2˚C rise

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The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher

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2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

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1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

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3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

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20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

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German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005

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Guy Dauncey 2011
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Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a day
The world is consuming 89 million barrels a day

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Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves

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Guy Dauncey 2011
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The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief
Age of Oil

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2011
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10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief
Age of Oil
Neolithic Era: 8,000 years
Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years
Roman Empire: 1,000 years
Islamic Golden Age: 600 years
Era of Oil: 100 years

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2011
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10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief
Age of Oil
Age of Oil: 100 years
What happens here?

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2011
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A billion years
future
Age of Oil: 100 years
The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant
for a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Beyond Oil
Awakening the Future

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BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
BCSEA vision
is a sustainable
future in which
all of BC’s
energy
is green and
renewable.

Guy Dauncey 2013
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How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5%
Asphalt 3%
Rail freight 1%
Recreational 1%
Military 1.5%
TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%
Non-transport uses 29%

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1 5% shift to walking

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Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org

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Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus

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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
A 5% shift to walking

Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand

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2 15% shift to cycling

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In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle

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 Safe bike lanes and routes
 Good bike parking
 Cycling education in schools

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Vancouver, Howe Street

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City Bike Sharing

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Electric Bicycles

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www.emcyclellc.com

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A fun cycling culture

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School at Assen, Holland

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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to cycling

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
15% shift to cycling = 80% …

Guy Dauncey 2013
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3 v15% shift to
transit and LRT

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Hasselt, Belgium
Free transit, included in city taxes
1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership

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Real-time electronic displays

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Bus shelter in Taiwan

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Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment

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Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km
www.opbrid.com

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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

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Japan’s Future Electric Bus

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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to Transit & LRT

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LRT in Portland, Oregon

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Electric train
+ green electricity
= no climate impact

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …

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4 5% shift to Telework

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Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
5% shift to telework = 60% …

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5 v5% shift to
Ride-Sharing

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Kijiji
Craigslist
Shareyourride.net

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Real-time Ride-sharing
www.car.ma

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Guaranteed emergency ride home
Cash-out parking – paid for not using employee
parking space
Rideshare Plus Rewards Book

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Ridesharing

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …

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See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
6
5% shift to Car Sharing

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Car-sharing forecast
North America 2016:
4.4 million users
David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Car-sharing

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
7
Better Inter-Modal
Connections
Single Smart Card for
transit, LRT, car-share,
ride-share, ferries, rail
Good transit-ferry
connections
Good bike-parking at
every transit station

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Transport London’s Oyster Card

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransit
Rail

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Better Inter-Modal
Connections

Guy Dauncey 2013
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8 Smart Growth

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Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri

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Metro do Porto, Portugal

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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Smart Growth

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9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
80% of average mileage on electric drive

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Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
795 kg 75km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Hybrid EVs

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30%
80% of mileage electric

Guy Dauncey 2013
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10 v50% shift to
Electric Vehicles

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Low Price: Renault Twizy EV
 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain
 80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge
 $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

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In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge
Top

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Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV
 5 seats
 Top speed 130 kph
 150 km range
 $25,000 after rebates

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Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

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Smart Electric – 135 km range

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Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Top price: Tesla EV Model-X
 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear
 0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds
 300-400 kilomertes range
 $67,000 plus incentives
 Delivery in 2014

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Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released

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STELLA

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Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in Holland
Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)
Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine
Solar PV cost $4,000
10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses
Excess power back into the grid

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Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no climate impact

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Honda solar electric car charging

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Electric car fast charging

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50% fuel reduction
Mercedes Biome concept car
Ultra-lights

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Average car 2,000 kg
Toyota Prius V 1,485 kg
Evonik Elise EV 950 kg

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1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
PV for EV

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1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Electric Vehicles

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cars & light trucks
50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …
50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …
Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …
If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …
= Beyond Oil

Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
100% shift to Beyond Oil
for cars & light trucks

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Integrated Governance
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail

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Integrated Cost Analysis
$
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
$

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Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour

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Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane
$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping
2,000 trips per hour
= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

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$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design
Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Guy Dauncey 2013
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$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required
Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design
Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
Cost of a new separated bike lane
$100,000 per km

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 Carbon Taxes
 Feebates
 Road tolls
 Utility Public
Service Charges
How can we pay for it all?

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Electronic Road Pricing

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Road-pricing
on the Malahat

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30,000 vehicles a day
$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
= 250 luxury coaches
= up to 10,000 passengers a day

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Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
 Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg
 Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

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Cargohopper
 3 tonnes max
 60 km range
 20 kph top speed
 Urban deliveries
 Holland
www.cargohopper.com

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Freight Solutions - Trucking
 Super-efficient designs save 35%
 Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8%
 Slower driving saves 8%
 ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15%
 Combined innovations could save 60%
But 60% increased demand would
wipe out all the gains.

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Solar Electric
Freight Tube
Vancouver – San Diego
5 hours
1994 US Federal Highway
Administration study

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Shipping Solutions
2.5% of global oil use

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Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

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The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design

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B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and
technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships.
www.b9energy.com

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9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells
Sleek, low wind resistance design

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 Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50%
 Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25%
 Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20%
 Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20%
 Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2%
 Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel
But 50% increased demand would

Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Flying Solutions
8% of global oil use
Latest designs save 20%
But a 20% increased demand would

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Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft
Superconducting electric motors
Paris Airshow, 2011
Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours

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Renewable Electricity

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Renewable Fuel
Biofuel made from…
 Farm and forest wastes
 Sewage and urban organic wastes
 Cultivated algae using waste CO2
 Cultivated seaweed
Renewable fuel made from…
 Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes
 Green hydrogen
 Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Renewable Fuel
Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute:
with 84% fuel-saving potential
US demand = 3.1 million barrels a day
USDA-DOE analysis:
US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable
biomass wastes
= 3 million barrels a day.

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Stronger Local Economies

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So what’s
The Secret
to make it all happen?

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Community engagement

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Special Discount
$20
Signed copies

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BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
Together, we can change the world.
To become a BCSEA Member
www.bcsea.org/join

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This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

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How can we make it happen?
Questions
Discussion

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D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From?
What Are We?
Where Are We Going??

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Voyager 1 photo of
Earth from 6 billion
kilometers.

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The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us

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Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion

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Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion
trillion
All self-organized
into one amazing
whole

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Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bang
or in a later Supernova explosion

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Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion

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Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole

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100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

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We are all conscious

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Do you have free will to choose your future?
Or is everything predetermined?

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You have free will
We can make a difference

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Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
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This is about us, our planet,
and our future.

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Taken together,
our efforts to make a better world
are like drops of dew
that slowly accumulate
in the soul of the world.
They hasten the day when the whole Earth,
With all its peoples and all its many creatures,
will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.

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