Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

We have come a long way from this….

Guy Smithore Dreamstime.com
We have also come to this…

GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

Gross Depletion of the Planet
+ Yield
- Costs
= Profit

The last time the world was 3C warmer
the sea-level was up to
25 metres
higher

2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
the power
of our fears

“The future belongs to those who
believe in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt

"Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas

So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?

What are the Values
on which we shall build our future city?
THE OLD THE NEW
Moving Cars Moving People
Individualism Community
The Functional City The Happy City
A Private
Capitalist Economy
A Sharing
Co-operative Economy
Domination over
Nature
Harmony with Nature

Eight Themes
1: A New Green Economy
2: Poverty & Inequality
3: Affordable Housing
4: The Downtown Eastside
5: Transportation without Oil
6: Our Homes
7: Our Neighbourhoods
8: How Do We Get There?

Guy
Moving from a
CAPITALIST
to a
COOPERATIVE
Economy
1: The New Green Economy

Guy
A COOPERATIVE
Economy
Businesses flourish in harmony with
other businesses, workers,
community and nature.

Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set
up Urban Village Business Networks
Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for
financial mutual support and cooperation.

Emilia Romagna, Italy
• Population 4.4 million
• $$$, top ten European regions
• 32% self-employed
• 76% work in small
• Business with 4-5 workers
• Italy’s 4th largest exporter
• 400,000 enterprises
• 15,000 cooperatives
• Strong tradition of reciprocity,
regional economy mutual
support system, financed by
a 0.4% levy on sales
• High density of banks
• Regional credit system with
close ties to local enterprises
• Lowest unemployment
• Highest rate of citizen
satisfaction in Italy

Emilia Romagna, Italy
There are half a million businesses and coops in
the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to
local inter-business organizations.
In return, they receive support with financing,
training, research, development strategies and
export efforts.

Vancouver Cooperatives have
their own Mutual Support Network

Local Businesses
are making
Wage Differentials
Reduction Pledges
from 30:1 to 10:1

Guy
Many Vancouver businesses are
becoming Benefit Corporations

Guy
Most Vancouver businesses have
Women Directors on the Board
“Companies with more Women Board Directors
experience higher financial performance,
according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

Guy
All Vancouver businesses are
incentivized to acquire
Green Business Certification

Guy
Youth Enterprise Initiatives
are flourishing

Guy
The Local Food Economy
is flourishing
www.solefoodfarms.com

Guy
There is a big New City Market
and Food Hub

Guy
There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere

Guy
All of Vancouver‟s banks
and credit unions have embraced
Values-Based Banking

Guy
A publicly-owned
State Bank of BC
has been established
Creates new credit
Holds public taxes and fees
Targets strategic investments
Clearing bank for other banks
Profits recycled, public benefit
Modeled on
The Bank of North Dakota

Guy
WIR Inter-Business Banking gives
businesses credit when they need it

Guy
Micro-Lending is flourishing

Guy
Many people have joined an
interest-free JAK Bank

Guy
Community Currencies are flourishing

Guy
Time-banking is flourishing
VANCOUVER

All banks and credit unions provide
Debt Circles

Guy
Basic Income for all
has been established
A Basic Income is an income unconditionally
guaranteed to all on an individual basis,
without means test or work requirement.

Guy
It is being financed through:
• Reallocation of pensions
and unemployment benefit,
social security and welfare
payments
• Direct taxation
• Indirect taxation on
consumption (GST)
• The Financial Transactions
Tax

Guy
Student Debt problems have been solved

Guy
The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

The Sharing Economy is thriving

Guy
A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

Guy
Debt Circles
Fair Taxation
Basic Income
Co-operatives
Profit-sharing
Affordable Housing
Student Debt Solution
The Sharing Economy
Increased Minimum Wage
Ability to grow your own food

Guy
Two-storey house: $1,151,250
Vancouver
Average House Prices, July 2013

Guy
Detached bungalow: $1,052,500
Vancouver

Guy
Condo: $490,475
Vancouver

Guy
Existing City Initiatives
Vancouver Rent Bank
Inclusionary Zoning
Density Bonusing
Secondary Suites
Infill Development
Demolition Control
Further Initiatives…

Guy
$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$
•There‟s a progressively increasing tax on real
estate sales over $2 million
•15% sales tax on properties bought through
offshore companies
•Annual levy on properties registered offshore
for tax reasons
•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop
developers from sitting on them

Guy
$$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$
•Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund
•There‟s a Community Housing Circle in each
neighbourhood which plans and builds
affordable projects.

There‟s a Community Land Trust
which buys land for affordable housing
Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

Guy
In rental apartments
there are Tenants‟ Stewardship Councils
which also have the first right of purchase

Guy
The new funds are being used to buy out
the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels,
and to restore or demolish and rebuild

Communal Renting has been legalized
for more than five people

Communal ownership has become common
8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million
= $250k each for 8 owners

Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing
has become common

www.loftcube.net
There‟s a special Rooftop Homes Zone

Rooftop Housing
is the new cool
thing.

Micro-homes
502 Alexander St
Vancouver
280 sq ft
12 units, base cost
$85,000 each
CMHC

There are Micro-Homes Villages
on temporarily vacant land

Guy Claire Martin
4: The Downtown
Eastside

Guy
1. There is Basic Income for all
Already in place in our imagined 2032:

Guy
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans

Guy
2. The Bank of BC creates low-
interest credit and supports local
community economies, including
microloans
3. There are many new affordable
housing initiatives

Guy
4: There is funding
to restore or
rebuild the old
rooming hotels
In addition….

Guy
5. There is funding to convert the old motels
along Kingsway into single-room
housing coops

6. BC has adopted the Nordic model,
decriminalizing prostituted women,
while criminalizing pimps and johns

7: There has been a change in Canada‟s
prisons policy, with more restorative justice
and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to
keep someone in jail.

8: Recreational soft drugs have been
legalized. There are safe legal injection sites,
detox and treatment on demand,
and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts
remain in their homes.

9: A team of “Judy‟s Angels” provide
one-to-one support to help people
get off the street and into a home.

10: Vancouver‟s Food
Banks (which fed 15,000
people a day in 2014)
have been transformed
into Community Food
Centres where people
learn how to cook
together, eat together,
grow their own food,
and join a Community
Food Coop.

Hastings Street from Cordova to Main
has been made car-free.
There is a green Trail of Power
with a big sculpture at each intersection
that tells the story of Canada‟s First Nations

Guy
5:
Transportation
without Oil

Guy
How most traffic engineer see the city
How cities should be designed
Who needs to own a car,
when walking is so pleasant,
Cycling such fun,
public transit so efficient
and carsharing so easy?
 20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot
 40% are by bike
 25% are by transit
 only 15% are by car or light truck

Many more people enjoy walking

Neighbourhoods have organized
local Walkability Audits
www.walklive.org

MANY more people are cycling:
40% of our trips in 2032

All bike lanes are safe separated bike lanes

Guy
Electric Bicycles
are everywhere

Tony‟s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Many people are using Transit
= 25% of our trips

There are luxury commuter buses

There are many creative Bus Shelters,
designed by community volunteers

On-Line Recharge Electric Buses

Guy
Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips

Vehicle owners are earning
up to $300 a month
through peer-to-peer carsharing

Affordable small electric vehicles:
Renault Twizy
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

100 km = 15 kWh
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month
Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
Grid Power for EV
EV Bargain!!
10 times cheaper
to run!

Cargohopper
 3 tonnes max
 60 km range
 20 kph top speed
 Urban deliveries
 Holland
www.cargohopper.com

There is no more air pollution

And at night, because smart street lights are user-controlled
and office lights are turned out, we can see the stars

Guy
Every house with
a south-facing
roof is a
Solar House

Solar Economics in Vancouver
4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation
2013 2020 2032
Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,000
4 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400
Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700
kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400
25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500
Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800
Guy

Guy
Every house
with a south-
facing roof
has solar
hot water

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The last 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The last 10,000 years
..................................................
What happens here,
when we stop burning fossil fuels?
The Age of
Fossil Fuels

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun does not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and get cheaper.

90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES

Guy
Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

16" foam insulation.
8” studs, 24” OC with
plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows
fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed
U= 0.73
Heat recovery ventilation:
90% exhaust heat transferred
to incoming fresh air
Building cost only 4.3% more,

Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pumps

The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
Air Moisture Solar Heat Pumps

Since 1991
In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland,
Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.

• Saves 50-75% on heating costs
• Uses air moisture, quiet air collector
• Operates down to -25o C

The cross is
an Ice-Stick
heat pump

Ground Source Solar Heat Pumps

Ground-Source Heat
Intelligent geothermal heat extraction

Insulated Pipes
Hot water at 200o C
delivered to customers
25 km away
only a few degrees of
heat loss.

Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Solar Thermal District Heat

800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Saves 5 tonnes
GHG emissions per home
per year.

The Energy Centre
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
Community solar
heat panels
Solar hot water
panels

Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com

Many people are growing their own food

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

Guy
Boulevards are being vegetablized

Bioswale captures rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle

Guy
Crown Street Sustainable Streetscape
Natural Stormwater management

Guy
Lost Creeks are being restored

Guy
Still Creek, Vancouver.
Chum Salmon restored after 80 years

Streets are being re-imagined
and redesigned

Guy
Most Streets Hold an Annual Block Party

Guy www.restreets.org
Downtown streets are being calmed and claimed

Guy www.restreets.org
…and cultured

Guy
Suburban streets are being calmed and claimed

Guywww.restreets.org
Fast, dangerous streets are being slowed

Guywww.restreets.org
Fast, boring streets are being slowed and humanized

There are many local Farmers Markets

Guy
All Schools are Growing Their Own Food

Guy
Concrete school yards are being transformed

Guy
Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey
www.greenovergrey.com
Boring buildings are being greened…

Guy
Musee du quai Branly in Paris
designed by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal

Guy
Many neighbours are participating
in the sharing economy
www.streetbank.com

Guy www.collaborativeconsumption.com

Guy Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing

Guy
There‟s lots of
community art

Guy Many people are celebrating

The Sustainable
City
The Happy,
Affordable City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens = Lower food costs
Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs
Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs
The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs
Stronger community economies = More financial security
Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security
More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty
No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement = Healthier political realm
Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community
More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,

Design the Future
Community Meetings

Engage Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com

Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16

Electronic ballots
Transferable Voting at municipal elections

Electronic ballots
Transferable Voting at municipal elections
$100 voting tax credit (revenue neutral)

This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
Where Do We Come From?
What Are We?
Where Are We Going??

Voyager 1 photo of
Earth from 6 billion
kilometers.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion trillion

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion
trillion
All self-organized
into one amazing
whole

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All self-organized into one amazing whole

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We are amazing…
and we are all conscious

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We have free will
We can make a difference

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,
our future.

It‟s Our World – So LETS CHANGE IT

Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com

Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

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Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032