Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar)

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ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Will
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
survive…… US?
1
By Chia Han-Leon
Lecturer, Enterprise Social Business, Institute of Systems Science
National University of Singapore

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There are people who “love” Facebook…
 More than 1.27 billion users
 2.7 billion connected people
 1.2 billion monthly active users
 13 new users per second
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 2
To illustrate…..

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The Faces of Facebook by Natalia Rojas (app.thefacesoffacebook.com)
3

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And there are people
who “hate” Facebook
 Milennials
 Teenagers
 Privacy advocates
 Disillusioned Marketers
>>
Image: Flickr user owenwbrown]

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5© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
http://time.com/34025/the-free-marketing-gravy-train-is-over-on-facebook/
http://adage.com/article/digital/brands-organic-facebook-reach-crashed-october/292004/
http://adage.com/article/digital/facebook-admits-organic-reach-brand-posts-dipping/245530/

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https://threatpost.com/privacy-advocates-want-to-halt-facebook-acquisition-of-whatsapp/104673
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/229815
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/27/facebook-dead-and-buried-to-teens-research-finds

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Source: iStrategy Labs
http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/
Caveat:
different
range per
group
The statistics often say:
7

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7% of 2,449 teens
say they don’t use
Facebook.
36% of 1,067
teens say they
don’t use Twitter.
Though, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll,
Source: Marketingcharts.com/Piper Jaffray (Oct 2013)
8
“Like” and “Use” are two different things

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Three popular services
Many young
adults use
Instagram
Teens say
they prefer
Whatsapp.
So that apparently leaves
most adults, parents,
grandparents on…
> 90% of the 150 million people
on Instagram are under age 35.
Of all social media users,
Age 18-29: 37% use instagram
Age 30-49: 18%
Age 50-64: 6%
Even primary school
students use Whatsapp.
However there are no
demographics.
(Maybe when the kids grow up…)
9
http://www.businessinsider.sg/instagram-demographics-2013-12/

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But in case you’ve forgotten…
$1 billion
$19 billion

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So actually,
Everyone is (still sort of) using
Facebook.

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and then Facebook bought
Photo by MHK Marketing, used under Creative Commons license.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mkhmarketing
and made lots of Oculus’ original backers angry

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Has the novelty of
Facebook worn off?
E.g.
Why write a post
when you can just
#love #TagsForLikes #TFLers #tweegram
#photooftheday #20likes #amazing #smile
#follow4follow #like4like #look #instalike #igers
#picoftheday #food #instadaily #instafollow #followme
#girl #iphoneonly #instagood #bestoftheday
#instacool #instago #all_shots #follow #webstagram
#colorful #style #swag

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Facebook has evolved.
It has to.

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Regular
Improvements
March 2014

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2008: The Publisher
Some of Facebook’s key rollouts
16

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2008:
Facebook Chat
Real-time Notifications

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The Like
2009

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2009: Facebook Pages

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So, will Facebook survive?
Yes, based on its mass and evolving usage.

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But is Facebook’s mass also its weakness?
Too many eggs in one basket?
What if Facebook is smaller? Government-owned/controlled?

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http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/13/5488558/danah-boyd-interview-the-era-of-facebook-is-an-anomaly

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“The idea of everybody going to one site is just
weird.” Give me one other part of history where
everybody shows up to the same social space.
Fragmentation is a more
natural state of being.”
Microsoft Researcher
danah boyd

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Facebook vs the Competition
A Fragmented Social Web
24

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Two ways to look at it

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1. Where else would we go?
Platforms that have value Facebook doesn’t
provide, in terms of a feature or service.

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… or in less tangible terms such as privacy or
cost of participation.

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“LinkedIn is for people you know, Facebook is
for people you used to know, Twitter is for
people you want to know.”
i.e. they are all different.
28
The old joke….

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“Twitter makes me like people I’ve never met and
Facebook makes me hate people I know in real life.”
- @shaylamaddox
Illustration by Kiersten
29
Slightly newer joke ….

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Familiarity
Breeds
Contempt.
Knowing someone too well also means knowing his/her faults.
Like our relationship with Facebook, family… and even friends.

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2. Does a “Facebook Killer” exist?

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Something with:
 Identical features/value,
 Attractive to/used by many people; and
 presumably “better” in some way.
None. Or we don’t know (yet).

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How about the other
giant tech companies?

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It’s a network of functions.
Not a social network.
Just as indispensable as Facebook – probably more(!).
Google’s value is “embedded”
Important value that we call upon when needed.
34

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Facebook is “wears its heart
on its sleeve”. It thrives on
the serendipitous and the
emotional.
Which we enjoy, we crave.
The very definition of social network.
We don’t think of it as “functionalist”.

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Good to know Have to know

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So how will Facebook
survive if it’s not very
“functional”?
What is its “business
model”?

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Analogies
Facebook is your sofa/bed.
Option, Comfort
Unique,
Necessary
Google is like your fridge.
38
FBED CONCEPT BY DEVIANTOM (deviantom.com)

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Facebook is the food/dish.
The “end product”,
the one you enjoy.
Google is the cooking pan.
39
Source: http://www.alohasweets.com/
The tool, the means;
the one you work with.

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Function …. “Function”.
Friends, fulfilment, etc. (SOCIAL)
And this will
change things
again.

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When Google/FB REALLY IS IN
your pot, fridge and more.
SOCIAL REDEFINED: capacity to share “have-to-knows” before
you need it rather than through serendipitous “good to know”.
One of the masters of this is…
IKEA’s kitchen of the
future, the SKARP

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The (somewhat) hidden rival:
 Could easily become a social network.
 Already had the foundations since 1990s.
 Reverse situation: already has a business model.

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“The Internet is disrupting
every media industry…
people can complain about
that, but complaining is not a
strategy. And Amazon is not
happening to book selling,
the future is happening to
book selling.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/
Photo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/
Jeff Bezos
Facebook expects to be disrupted too.

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Facebook Acquisitions
Who tried to buy Facebook in 2006?

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was a rival to Facebook for photo-sharing.

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Had the youth demographics that Facebook was
“missing”.

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 “More of my friends have Whatsapp than Facebook.”
 “Too much work to use Facebook. Have to boot up
computer. Don’t like the mobile version.”
 “I still like Facebook because people in it are more mature.”
I asked my tween what she thought:

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But why buy Oculus Rift?

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The future in Virtual Reality.
It’s about building the
next-
generation
internet.

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But not like THIS...
50

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iOptik Augmented Reality contact lenses.
(Note: still requires glasses)
http://innovega-inc.com/

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Facial Recognition, Augmented Reality, etc.
(Bought by Google in 2012)

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Virtual Reality Interfaces
Ironman (Marvel/Paramount)

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Gesture Recognition, etc.
http://leapmotion.com

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All 4 articles from last week of March 2014.

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P5 Glove - Virtual Reality Data Glove http://www.cwonline.com/
By the way, who would make
up the biggest market for
virtual reality gaming?
Youth
The segment that is “leaving” Facebook…

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Also, Facebook is building drones and
satellites to connect more of the world to
the internet.

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So will Facebook survive….Us?
YES,
but not in the form you imagine today.
It’s going to be more than a social network.

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Social and Functional
technologies will merge
Virtual Reality + Internet of Things + Smart Devices +
Social/Collabortive Networking + Predictive Intelligence + …….

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conclusion
Jeff Bezos:
“Companies have short life spans…. And Amazon
will be disrupted one day. … I don’t worry about it
'cause I know it’s inevitable. Companies come and
go. And the companies that are, you know, the
shiniest and most important of any era, you wait a
few decades and they’re gone.”
Charlie Rose:
“And your job is to make sure that you delay that
date?”
Jeff Bezos:
“I would love for it to be after I’m dead.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/
Will it?

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Thanks for listening!
@leonchia
sg.linkedin.com/in/leonchia/
leonchia@nus.edu.sg

Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar)

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