A presentation by Dave Hardy, Principal of Hardy Stevenson and Associates Limited at an event by Scarborough Business Association on February 8, 2017. It was about Scarborough's economy and how to build Scarborough into an economic powerhouse.

1. Scarborough 2.0: Strategy to
Build an Economic
Powerhouse
DAVE HARDY’S PRESENTATION TO SCARBOROUGH BUSINESS
ASSOCIATION, FEBRUARY 8, 2017
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2. Why is a Strong Scarborough Economy Important?
• Reduced areas or no areas of poverty.
• Scarborough businesses and institutions are vibrant.
• Residents have secure, well-paying jobs.
• Children who get a skill, trade or university education can work locally.
• People have disposable income and a great quality of life.
• Property values keeping pace or rising and families are building equity.
• Makes a stronger City economy.
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3. Scarborough Characteristics
Total of 13,619
businesses in
Scarborough
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4. Scarborough Characteristics
190,320
employees
(2014)
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5. In 2016, Scarborough stats were positive.
• Industrial land property taxes low.
• In the City of Toronto, property taxes
per square foot for a typical new
industrial building decreased from
$2.98/sq. ft. in 2005 to $2.86/sq.ft. in
2015.
• Industrial property taxes/sq.ft. in
Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton,
are trending upward and may surpass
Toronto, as Pickering did in 2013.
• No development changes.
Source: City of Toronto Economic Dashboard, 2016, Toronto Employment Survey, Labour Force Survey
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6. In 2016, Scarborough stats were positive.
• Industrial land lease costs low
at average of $150 square
foot.
• Scarborough manufacturing
employment is strong and has
replaced what was lost in
recession.
• Some employers are coming
back to Scarborough from 905.
• Reasonably priced and
accessible labour force.
Source: City of Toronto Economic Dashboard, 2016, Toronto Employment Survey, Labour Force Survey
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7. But we can do better….
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8. Scarborough Characteristics
• Many small businesses. The top 8
have over 2000 employees. The next
23 have between 1000 and 2000
employees.
• Most have 0-5 employees.
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9. Scarborough Characteristics
• Most businesses are Service
businesses (9,891)
• Retail Trade is the second
most common classification
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10. Scarborough Characteristics
• Eating places and
Consulting
Services are the
most common
classification
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11. What are the larger challenges?
• Larger forces are always in play.
• Energy costs.
• Labour costs.
• Immigration policy.
• Infrastructure investment.
• Canadian dollar.
• Trade agreements.
• Image of Canada and Canadian businesses on the international stage.
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12. What is holding us back?
Other areas are benefitting from infrastructure investment and land availability
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13. Eastern GTHA Underperforming
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14. What’s the regional competition?
• Oakville/Trafalgar employment area
is viewed as the next Meadowvale
• Brampton West Employment Area
• Highway 7/404 employment area
continues to thrive
• Except for Seaton, less office growth
in GTA East
Sample Office Inventory
Nodes Total Inventory % of Total
Highway 407 / 404 9,443,385 sf 31.4%
Don Mills / Eglinton 4,204,372 sf 14.0%
Airport Corporate Centre 7,932,911 sf 26.4%
Meadowvale 5,749,065 sf 19.1%
Vaughan 1,966,345 sf 6.5%
Total 30,081,850 sf 100%
Other areas are successfully in developing employment lands.
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15. Regional competition?
Land available for employment.
• Some traditional land available
in Scarborough
• Seaton – 70,000 residents,
35,000 new jobs
• Scarborough needs to be
strategic.
Future Commercial Employment
Nodes Total Inventory
Seaton 12,000,000 sf
Downsview Park 230 ha
Vaughan Metropolitan Centre 1,500,000 sf
Highway 427 Enterprise Zone 1,000 ha
Highway 400 North 800 ha
Hamilton Airport Lands 700 ha
Scarborough 50 ha
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16. Tapscott has only greenfield land left in City
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17. Employment Concentration in Downtown
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18. Employment Concentration in Downtown
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19. Proposed Projects in Toronto
Proposed Projects in the City of Toronto by Status
Built Active Under
Review
Total in
Pipeline
% of
Total
City of Toronto 1,027 786 549 2,362
Growth Areas
Downtown and Central Waterfront 168 134 106 408 17.3
Centres 28 29 18 75 3.2
Etobicoke Centre 6 10 3 19 25.3
North York Centre 15 7 4 26 34.7
Scarborough Centre 4 1 0 5 6.7
Yonge-Eglington Centre 3 11 11 25 33.3
Avenues 156 143 141 440 18.6
Other Mixed Use Areas 61 83 57 201 8.5
All Other Areas 614 397 227 1,238 52.4
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20. Proposed Residential Units in Toronto
Proposed Residential Units in the City of Toronto by Status
Built Active Under
Review
Total in
Pipeline
% of
Total
City of Toronto 86,605 118,610 106,135 311,350
Growth Areas
Downtown and Central Waterfront 31,378 50,075 37,700 119,153 38.3
Centres 7,071 12,500 7,621 27,192 8.7
Etobicoke Centre 960 6,196 378 7,534 27.7
North York Centre 4,772 709 2,641 8,122 29.9
Scarborough Centre 947 0 0 947 3.5
Yonge-Eglington Centre 392 5,595 4,602 10,589 38.9
Avenues 24,469 22,090 26,268 72,827 23.4
Other Mixed Use Areas 7,502 16,357 13,907 37,766 12.1
All Other Areas 16,185 17,588 20,639 54,412 17.5
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21. Proposed Non-Residential GFA in Toronto
Proposed Non-Residential GFA in the City of Toronto by Status
Built Active Under
Review
Total in
Pipeline
% of
Total
City of Toronto 2,687,948 2,857,791 2,398,706 7,944,626
Growth Areas
Downtown and Central Waterfront 1,243,632 1,407,781 1,016,507 3,667,921 46.2
Centres 88,860 70,220 61,336 220,416 2.8
Etobicoke Centre 601 16,889 7,183 24,673 11.2
North York Centre 62,373 31,596 21,586 115,555 52.4
Scarborough Centre 2,221 4,141 0 6,362 2.9
Yonge-Eglington Centre 23,666 17,593 32,567 73,826 33.5
Avenues 455,842 302,284 305,253 1,063,379 13.4
Other Mixed Use Areas 33,553 226,000 170,081 429,634 5.4
All Other Areas 866,061 851,686 845,529 2,563,276 32.3
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22. What’s the strategy?
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23. Leverage Ontario’s Strengths
• Ontario will be in the pole position among provinces in 2017 with a growth
rate of 2.3%
• Hot housing market expecting to slow down, making property more
affordable
• Provincial and Federal infrastructure programs will surge to $17.4 billions
in fiscal 2016-2017
• Ontario added 71,000 new jobs during the first 11 months of 2016
• Ontario is expected to add another 70,000 additional jobs in 2017
• Unemployment rate was at a six-year low of 6.3% as of November 2016
• Trump effect?
Source: RBC Provincial Outlook December 2016: Ontario
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24. Leverage the GTHA’s and GGH’s Strengths
GTHA and GGH 30 Year Growth Estimates
Population
• Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) increasing by almost 3.0 million, or 45.8 per cent,
to reach over 9.4 million population by 2041 (larger than Chicago is today at 8,814,000)
• Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) population estimated to grow to 13,480,000
Employment
• Employment growth in (GTHA) 3,460,000 employees in 2011 to 4,830,000 in 2041
• Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) 4,460,000 employees in 2011 to 6,270,000 in 2041
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25. Leverage Toronto’s Strengths
Toronto Strengths:
• Financials
• Information Technology
• Processed food
• Education and knowledge creation
• Life sciences
Toronto is a leading North American centre in information technology, film and television, education,
biotechnology, health care, design, food and beverage, green/renewable energy, professional services
and tourism as well as financial services and manufacturing.
Toronto’s strengths offer excellent opportunities for Scarborough economic renewal.
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26. Expected Toronto Job Growth
• The largest increases were in the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) (31,000 new jobs) and
Service (27,000 new jobs) sectors.
• 70% of all new jobs (79,200) are in the Office sector.
• Vehicles & Parts (15.0%) and Building Components (13.9%) posted significant increase.
• Renovation industry investment now matches new build construction industry.
Source: City of Toronto, Toronto Employment Survey, 2015
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27. Toronto Employment Survey, 2016
• 1,461,020 total jobs
• 38,740 more Jobs since 2015
• 35% of jobs located in the Downtown Core
• 393,350 jobs concentrated in employment areas
• 75,290 total establishments
• 79.5% of manufacturing establishments are in employment areas
• 550 more community and entertainment establishments
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28. Leverage Scarborough’s Strengths
• Large population
• In 2011, largest age cohort: 45-49
in Scarborough and 25-29 in
Toronto
• In 2010, average household
income: $72,394 in Scarborough
and $87,038 in Toronto
Source: City of Toronto Community Council Area Profile, Census 2011 and NHS 2011,
2016 Census
2016 Census 2011 2016
Agincourt 104,499 105,542
Central 108,826 112,603
Guildwood 101,914 102,386
North 101,080 98,800
Rouge 102,645 102,275
South West 106,733 110,278
627,708 633,900
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29. Our Diversity is a Strength
Ethnic Identity Pickering Ajax
Scarborough Rouge
River
Durham Region Ontario
European origins 54,385 (61.9%) 58,700 (53.7%) 33,250 (32.6%) 424,495 (70.6%) 8,231,410 (65.1%)
Asian origins 19,605 (22.3%) 29,846 (27.3%) 51,515 (50.4%) 77,145 (12.8%) 2,604,595 (20.6%)
Other North American
origins (Canadian,
American,
Newfoundlanders, etc.)
19,265 (21.9%) 23,340 (21.4%) 12,375 (2.3%) 176,865 (29.4%) 3,059,480 (24.2%)
Caribbean origins 9,695 (11.0%) 16,435 (15.0%) 13,745 (13.5%) 39,730 (6.6%) 396,485 (3.1%)
African origins 3,655 (4.2%) 4,705 (4.3%) 6,075 (6.0%) 14,160 (2.4%) 331,460 (2.6%)
Latin, Central and South
American origins
3,545 (4.0%) 4,970 (4.6%) 4,675 (4.6%) 14,155 (2.4%) 271,545 (2.1%)
First Nations 1510 (1.7%) 1,875 (1.7%) 1,210 (1.2%) 17,295 (2.9%) 441,395 (3.5%)
Métis 280 (0.3%) 375 (0.3%) 340 (0.3%) 3,475 (0.6%) 97,045 (0.8%)
Oceania origins 50 (0.1%) 375 (0.3%) 190 (0.2%) 1,125 (0.2%) 19,410 (0.2%)
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30. Recommendations
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31. How do we build Scarborough into an
economic power house?
SBA to…
1. Encourage City to do an economic development plan and sponsor business charrettes.
2. Advocate against conversion of existing employment lands to residential or institutional uses.
3. Promote new office development at new transit nodes and Scarborough Town Centre.
4. Accelerate and capture technology jobs generated by existing Scarborough industries and
higher level education institutions.
5. Rebrand Scarborough
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32. 1. Prepare Economic Development Plan
Growth Pressure Provides Opportunity
• Increasing downtown costs, improved regional transit, and
higher household formation among Millennials could boost
demand for office space "in densifying areas of the
suburbs.“
Economic Development Plan and Business Charrettes
• What’s the vision, goals and five-year set of actions for
Scarborough’s economy.
• Needs to be linked to other City initiatives.
• Sources: City of Toronto, Toronto Employment Survey, 2015, CBRE, "Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook"
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33. Integration with New and Existing Plans
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Official Plan and
Secondary Plans
City’s Strategic
Actions, 2013 -
2018
District
Economic
Development
Plans
Smart Track
Recreation, Arts
and Culture
Plans
Other Plans and
Groups

34. Plan should build on Ongoing Initiatives
Continue building bonds between Scarborough businesses and continue the focus on business
development.
• Have local Scarborough businesses take part in a charrette to map out business plans and
solutions.
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35. Economic Development Plan
• Scarborough’s needs are different and a vision
is important.
• City of Toronto doesn’t have separate area
visions.
• Adapt and Apply City of Toronto Strategic Plan
for Economic Growth Specifically to
Scarborough.
• Establish incubators, accelerators and
mentors.
• Councillor Thompson’s efforts great.
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36. Potential Plan Recommendations
Relocate 3000 City Staff to Scarborough
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37. Potential Plan Recommendations
Leverage Hospital Reinvestment to Create Bio-
Tech Clusters
• $2 billion potential Rouge Valley and Scarborough
Hospital reinvestment
• Enhance and incent medical research and bio-tech
entrepreneurship as part of the hospital re-investment
• Stimulate health and life sciences clusters in
Scarborough
• Work with Doctors and researchers who are also
entrepreneurs
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38. 2. Prohibit Employment Lands Conversion
City faces constant pressure to rezone employment lands to non-employment uses (e.g.
housing, recreation uses, religious establishments).
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39. 3. Promote New Office Development at Transit Nodes
• Kennedy Station
• Brimley and Eglinton and Kennedy North
• Lawrence East McCowan
• Link of the new LRT and BRT to older industrial
areas and hospitals
• Initiate Secondary Plans around stops to
include jobs
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40. Office and Employment at Transit Nodes
• Leverage Higher Order Transit
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41. Office and Employment Nodes
Complete Transit Villages with Employment Nodes
• Golden Mile Shopping Centre redevelopment provides a
strong planning opportunity – but not occuring.
• Strong office development and job creation
opportunities may be missed.
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42. Office and Employment Nodes
Scarborough Town Centre
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43. 43
4. Capture
Technology & Talent

44. Capture Technology & Talent
Centennial College
• Source of Entrepreneurial Incubators
• Creating skilled and talented
workforce
• Global connectivity
• New hospitality infrastructure
• Councillor Holland great
appointment
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45. 5. Rebranding Initiatives
Living Arts Centre
“Scarborough is
where I want to
locate my business.”
Planned to occur in
1984 before
amalgamation.
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46. Rebranding Initiatives
“Scarborough Advantage”
“Scarborough Proud”
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47. Closure
Are these the recommendations that will turn
Scarborough into an Economic Powerhouse?
• City and SBA to work on an economic
development plan starting with a vision
• Strengthen partnerships
• Greater advocacy for economic development.
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