1. MENA
SOLAR MARKET
PERSPECTIVE
VAHID FOTUHI
PRESIDENT, ESIA
March 5, 2013

2. MENA’s electricity crisis
Cause: Effect:
• Rising population •Production has outpaced GDP growth
• Urbanization •Demand has outpaced capacity growth
• Economic growth
Source: APICORP Research, MENA Power Reassessed: Growth Potential, Investment and Challenges, April-May 2012

3. Where is the fuel?
• In 2011, ~60% of power generated
using natural gas and ~37% using oil
• Why is this a big deal?
• Importers will suffer because of huge
budgetary strain, less cash for social
projects
• Exporters will suffer via massive
opportunity cost, energy wastage
Source: APICORP Research, MENA Power Reassessed: Growth Potential, Investment and Challenges, April-May 2012

4. Importers concern
30
25
Gas price ($/MMBtu)
20
Cost of fuel imports
rising rapidly
15
10
5
0

5. Exporters concern
10000
9000
Saudi Arabia oil consumption / exports (thousand
8000
Oil exports
7000
barrels per day)
6000
5000
Domestic oil consumption The trend does not
4000
look good…
3000
2000
1000
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

6. Everyone’s concern

7. Meanwhile…

8. Additional benefits of solar PV
• GDP contribution:
•100 MW of solar = $ 600mn in GDP (10x more than fossil fuel)
• Fuel savings:
•Preserving oil & reducing imports
• Environmental benefits:
• Cutting 2.5mbb/yr of diesel = 1 million tons of CO2
• Jobs:
• KSA: 1,000 jobs needed/day
• Solar: 15 jobs/MW

9. Poster-child of MENA’s solar PV market
Source: GTM Research & Emirates Solar Industry Association, 2013

10. Other key markets for solar PV

11. “The wagon rests in winter,
the sleigh in summer, the
horse never.”