1. avrdc.org
R . S c h a f l e i t n e r 1
J. R a m i re z 2
A . J a r v i s 2
D. Ev e rs 3
R . G u t i e r re z 4
M . S c u r ra h 4
1 A V R D C – T h e W o r l d V e g e t a b l e C e n t e r,
Ta i w a n
2 C I AT, C o l o m b i a
3 C R P - G a b r i e l L i p p m a n n , L u x e m b o u r g
4 C I P P e r u
Adaption of the potato crop to climate
change
Walter Amoros

2. www.avrdc.org
AVRDC – The World Vegetable Center
 Founded in 1971 as the
Asian Vegetable Research and
Development Center with a regional
research focus on Asia
 Our research and development is
nonprofit
 Our research outputs are global public
goods
 The World Vegetable Center has an
expanding global role with a growing
network of regional offices
Alleviate poverty and
malnutrition in the
developing world through
the increased production
and consumption of
health-promoting
vegetables.

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• Vegetable production generates
higher farm income and more
jobs than other crops
• Especially suited for small farms
and women farmer
• Vegetable value chains
strengthen the rural economy
Vegetables are healthy –
and a path out of poverty

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AVRDC – The WORLD Vegetable Center
Headquarters
Africa
Central America
East &
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Central & West Asia
and North Africa
Oceania

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Our Crop Portfolio
Solanaceae:
− Tomato
− Pepper
− Eggplant
Bulb Alliums:
− Onion
− Garlic
− Shallot
 Legumes:
− Mungbean
− Vegetable
soybean
Crucifers:
− Pak Choi
− Broccoli
Cucurbits:
− Cucumber
− Pumpkin
Indigenous
vegetables

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AVRDC Themes
Germplasm
Breeding
Production
Consumption
60,000 accessions
150 vegetable species
Adapted lines suitable
for smallholder farmers
for variety and hybrid
development
Production technologies,
disease resistance genes,
integrated pest
management
Postharvest, nutritional
value, access to markets,
promoting healthy diets

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AVRDC Biotech - Molecular breeding
 Molecular marker technologies
for genebank scientists,
breeders and pathologists
 Population development, wide
crosses, embryo rescue
 Genetic engineering
Enhance efficiency, effectiveness and economy of
cultivar improvement

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Potato and Climate Change
 Global temperatures are likely to rise
 Precipitation patterns are likely to change
 Potato is sensitive to heat and drought
Potato production is likely to
be affected by climate change

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Potato and Climate Change
 Which climatic effect will affect potato production where and
to which extent?
cipotato.org

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Climate changes projections for potato growing
regions
Baseline
 Averages 1960 – 2000 of monthly max, min. and mean
temperatures and precipitation
 Resolution of 30-arcsecond (~1 km), reduced to 5-arcminute (10
km)
Future climate
 Statistically downscaled output of Global Circulation Models
2010-2039
 SRES-A2 emission scenario “business as usual”

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Potato production areas
Summer potato in temperate zones: 45° N – 57°N
Winter potato in subtropical lowlands: 23° N – 34° N
25% of the potato area > 1000 m altitude

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Present and future climate suitability for potato
production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
Parameters:
 Tkill: Temperature at which the crop will die
 Tmin: Minimum temperature at which the crop will grow
 Topmin: Minimum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
 Topmax: Maximum optimum temperature at which the crop grows
 Tmax: Maximum temperature at which the crop will grow
 Rmin: Minimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
 Ropmin: Minimum optimum amount of rain water required for the crop to grow
 Ropmax: Maximum optimum amount of water for the crop to grow
 Rmax: Maximum amount of rain water below which the crop grows
 Gmin: Minimum length of the growing season
 Gmax: Maximum length of the growing season.

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Present and future climate suitability for potato
production
EcoCrop model (based on FAO database of crop ecological requirements)
 Separate suitability indices for
temperature and rainfall
 Computing final suitability rating by
multiplying temperature and precipitation
suitabilities
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/ClimateChange/EcoCropFB/#

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Present climate suitability for potato

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Present climate suitability for potato

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Current climatic limitations for potato

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Predicted suitability 2020

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Predicted suitability 2020
• Highest reduction in suitability in tropical highlands & southern Africa
• Large gains in suitability in high latitudes or high tropical altitudes
• Net change: +1.3 % suitability

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Potential benefits from improved stress tolerance
1) Heat tolerance (+2.5°C)
 Climate change impact reduction on 65% of
current potato area
 Expansion to 15.5 million hectares of new area
2) Cold tolerance (-2.5°C)
 Plus 8.7 million hectares of new suitable area
3) Drought tolerance (25% less water
requirement)
 Benefit for 2.8 million hectares – overlapping
with heat stress tolerance impact areas

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Conclusion
 CC predictions suggest potato yield
reductions in the tropics and large
gains in high latitudes
 Reducing temperature sensitivity
would have largest impact on CC
adaptation of the potato crop

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Suitability Modeling for Vegetable Production
 Scattered production area
 Microclimates
 Irrigated
 Protected agriculture

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