11. Cost push could see higher prices in H2. Pick-up in demand in Jul-Aug ahead of Ramadan (SE Asia) and in late Aug-Oct in China. Sustained price recovery expected earliest by 2010/2011. Modest growth of less than 5% in inks and coatings sector over next few years. Diversification into higher-end coatings (saturation of decorative coatings).
12. MEK longer-term outlook: MEK imports likely to shrink with ADD expected to stay in place and new plants coming on stream (Lanzhou). China as opportunistic exporter of MEK. Korea to remain key import market in Asia, limited growth in SE Asia.
13. MEK new capacities On hold 30,000 30,000 Yanbian Petrochemical On hold 30,000 30,000 Maoming Petrochemical Sep 2009 60,000 30,000 Lanzhou Petrochemical Q4 2008 110,000 80,000 Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Date Total capacity (t/yr) New capacity (t/yr) Company
14. IPA longer-term outlook: Imports into China expected to be more or less stable in the next few years. Korea turned net exporter in 2008, imports to shrink. SE Asian growth hinges on demand from coatings, oleo-chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
15. Ethyl Acetate & Butyl Acetate Market & Trends July 2009 Helen Lee Markets Editor ICIS Pricing Asia
23. Source : International Development Association of Furniture Industry of Japan Source: International Development Association of Furniture Industry of Japan Butyl Acetate – Wood/furniture Coatings
25. New Ethyl Acetate Capacities Onstream 1 July ‘09 Otake, Hiroshima, Japan 50,000 (bioethanol-based) Daicel Industries Onstream Oct ‘09 Jiangsu, China 100,000 (ethanol integrated) Taixing Jinjiang Chemical (Jiangmen Handsome) Onstream early ’08 - idled Aug ‘08 Weifang, Shandong province, China 100,000 Shandong Haihua Full Nanchang, Jiangxi province, China 80,000 Nanchang Ganjiang Solvents Factory 90% Tengzhou, Shandong province, China 100,000 Yankuang Cathay Coal Chemicals Status Location Capacity (tonnes/year) Producer
26. New Butyl Acetate Capacities Onstream Oct ‘09 Jiangsu, China 50,000 Taixing Jinjiang Chemical (Jiangmen Handsome) Study Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province, China 50,000 Jiangsu Sopo Study Fujian, China 50,000 Quanzhou Chuangyuan Chemical Status Location Capacity (tonnes/year) Producer
31. Rise of SE Asian imports China acetone imports 2009 China acetone imports 2008 Source: China customs statistics Zero tariff boosts ASEAN acetone exports to China