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PLANETARY BOUNDARIES,[object Object],the urgent need for societal transformations,[object Object],MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin,[object Object],dotEarth, New York Times,[object Object],Sybil Seitzinger,[object Object],International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,[object Object],Deborah Rogers,[object Object],International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change,[object Object],Gisbert Glaser,[object Object],Senior Policy Advisor,[object Object],International Council for Science,[object Object]
Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship,[object Object],Professor Sybil Seitzinger,[object Object],Executive Director,[object Object],International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,[object Object]
Antarctic ice core,[object Object],Modern humans appear in Africa,[object Object],Carbon dioxide,[object Object],Methane,[object Object],Carbon,[object Object],dioxide,[object Object],Temperature,[object Object],Methane,[object Object],Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.,[object Object],Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008. ,[object Object]
Antarctic ice core,[object Object],Beyond natural boundaries,[object Object],Methane,[object Object],Carbon,[object Object],dioxide,[object Object],Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.,[object Object],Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008. ,[object Object]
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland),[object Object],And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004,[object Object],Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling,[object Object],Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004,[object Object]
IGBP Climate-change index,[object Object],Global carbon dioxide,[object Object],Arctic sea-ice minimum,[object Object],Global surface temperature,[object Object],Global sea level,[object Object]
IGBP Climate-change index,[object Object]
The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure,[object Object]
Population,[object Object],US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Total real GDP,[object Object],Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Foreign direct investment,[object Object],World Bank (2002) data and statistics,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Damming of rivers,[object Object],World Commission on Dams (2000),[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Water use,[object Object],Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Fertiliser consumption,[object Object],International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002),[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Urban population,[object Object],The State of the World’s Cities (2001),[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Paper consumption,[object Object],Pulp and paper international (1993),[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Motor vehicles,[object Object],Global environmental outlook (2000),[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Telephones,[object Object],Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
International tourism,[object Object],World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Shrimp farm production,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Domesticated land,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Planetary response,[object Object]
Atmospheric CO2 concentration,[object Object],Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Atmospheric N2O concentration,[object Object],Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Atmospheric CH4 concentration,[object Object],Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Northern hemisphere average surface temperature,[object Object],Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Ozone depletion,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Tropical rainforest and woodland loss ,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Natural climatic disasters ,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Fisheries exploitation,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Coastal zone nitrogen flux,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Biodiversity loss,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
Great acceleration,[object Object],IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004,[object Object]
“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”,[object Object],    Ban Ki-Moon       	,[object Object]
A resilient Earth System,[object Object]
Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament,[object Object]
Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?,[object Object],Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt,[object Object],National Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.,[object Object]
Ozone,[object Object],Depletion,[object Object],Climate Change,[object Object],Atmospheric Aerosol Loading,[object Object],Nitrogen,[object Object],Ocean ,[object Object],Acidification,[object Object],Phosphorus ,[object Object],Rate of Biodiversity Loss,[object Object],Global ,[object Object],FreshwaterUse,[object Object],Land System Change,[object Object],Chemical ,[object Object],Pollution ,[object Object],Rockström et al. 2009,[object Object]
2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum,[object Object],“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”,[object Object]
Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity,[object Object]
Planetary Stewardship,[object Object],2020,[object Object],2040,[object Object],2050,[object Object],2030,[object Object]
New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012,[object Object]
Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship,[object Object],Professor Sybil Seitzinger,[object Object],Executive Director,[object Object],International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,[object Object],www.igbp.net,[object Object],Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se,[object Object]

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Notas del editor

  1. To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  2. This great acceleration really started in the 50s
  3. To note:London 7-10 MayPlanetary meeting focusing on solutions2500 leading global-change thinkersInfluence 2012 Earth Summit: Rio +20INTEGRATION of many research and policy communities is key. We want the best global change thinkers to attendPlanet Under Pressure: new knowledge, new solutions
  4. The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.The hockeystick pattern applies all key indicators that form the basis for human well being and environmental health.
  5. Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean.Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years.Burning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas.Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.
  6. Beyond climate