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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington
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Estimating maternal mortality I November 1, 2010 Rafael Lozano Professor of Global Health
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenges in modeling causes of death ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What we have
What we want
How can we get there? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dependent variable selection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Choice of dependent variable ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Model Age-Specific Rates? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Processing input data
Why use the PMDF to get to rates? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PMDF to population maternal rates From input data source
PMDF to population maternal deaths, by age Input data source Age group # of maternal deaths # of all-cause deaths PMDF National mortality envelopes Population maternal deaths 15-19 80 1,000 8.0% 1,355 108 20-24 132 1,100 12.0% 1,990 239 25-29 132 1,100 12.0% 3,775 453 30-34 143 1,300 11.0% 4,935 543 35-39 126 1,400 9.0% 5,700 513 40-44 90 1,500 6.0% 6,575 395 45-49 61 1,900 3.2% 7,725 247
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Form of the regression model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So what is related to maternal mortality? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transforming the covariates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TFR vs. ln(maternal mortality rate)
First stage regression model   Robust Regression   Coefficient Std. Error Intercept 4.715 0.100 ln(TFR) 1.903 0.022 ln(GDP per capita) -0.511 0.010 Neonatal mortality 13.662 0.721 Education -0.086 0.003 HIV 0.108 0.005 HIV² -0.001 0.000 Age 15-19 -1.176 0.021 Age 20-24 -0.374 0.020 Age 25-29 -0.077 0.020 Age 35-39 -0.165 0.020 Age 40-44 -0.633 0.021 Age 45-49 -1.390 0.025
HIV counterfactual ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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maternal mortality sri lanka estimating maternal mortality i_lozano_110110_ihme

  • 1. Estimating maternal mortality I November 1, 2010 Rafael Lozano Professor of Global Health
  • 2.
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  • 13. PMDF to population maternal rates From input data source
  • 14. PMDF to population maternal deaths, by age Input data source Age group # of maternal deaths # of all-cause deaths PMDF National mortality envelopes Population maternal deaths 15-19 80 1,000 8.0% 1,355 108 20-24 132 1,100 12.0% 1,990 239 25-29 132 1,100 12.0% 3,775 453 30-34 143 1,300 11.0% 4,935 543 35-39 126 1,400 9.0% 5,700 513 40-44 90 1,500 6.0% 6,575 395 45-49 61 1,900 3.2% 7,725 247
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  • 19. TFR vs. ln(maternal mortality rate)
  • 20. First stage regression model   Robust Regression   Coefficient Std. Error Intercept 4.715 0.100 ln(TFR) 1.903 0.022 ln(GDP per capita) -0.511 0.010 Neonatal mortality 13.662 0.721 Education -0.086 0.003 HIV 0.108 0.005 HIV² -0.001 0.000 Age 15-19 -1.176 0.021 Age 20-24 -0.374 0.020 Age 25-29 -0.077 0.020 Age 35-39 -0.165 0.020 Age 40-44 -0.633 0.021 Age 45-49 -1.390 0.025
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