The document analyzes data from 16,174 data points for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 to estimate trends in child mortality. It finds that under-5 deaths have dropped from 16 million globally in 1970 to 7.7 million in 2010. While progress has been made, the annual rate of decline in developing countries is still below the Millennium Development Goal target of 4.4% per year. The analysis uses Gaussian process regression, a new modeling method, to more accurately estimate neonatal, postneonatal and childhood mortality rates over time. Faster reductions are possible as shown by some countries decreasing under-5 mortality by 30% within 5 years.