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Tuesday 13 September 2011 Extra Care – A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis? www.ilcuk.org.uk
Baroness Sally Greengross ILC-UK Extra Care
Dylan Kneale ILC-UK Extra Care
Establishing the extra in Extra Care: Perspectives from three Extra Care Housing Providers Dylan Kneale International Longevity Centre, September 13 th  2011
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Health, social care and housing among the ageing population
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Extra care housing
Extra care housing What do we know about extra care housing?
Research Questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data and Methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1. Characteristics of residents  Descriptive analysis 2. Extra care housing as a home for life Event history analysis (Lognormal and Competing Risks); Propensity Score Matching 3. Extra care housing as a healthy home for life Event history analysis (Competing Risks); Propensity Score Matching 4. Extra care housing and hospital beds? Zero inflated negative binomial regression; Propensity Score Matching 5.N Inferences on the costs and benefits of extra care housing? Descriptive analysis
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Characteristics of residents
Characteristics of residents
Extra care as a home for life I   Length of time until exit (all exits)   First quartile (25%) Median (50%) All residents 3.1 6.5 Gender Male 2.6 6.0 Female 3.4 6.7
Extra care as a home for life II: Competing Risks Framework   Risk 1: moving to an institution Risk 2: death All residents 8.2% (6.7-9.9) 25.0% (22.4-27.5) Gender Male 6.4% (4.3-9.1) 30.6% (26.0-35.3) Female 9.1% (7.2-11.3) 22.0% (19.2-25.1) Health Status/Care Needs on Arrival No additional support package 5.5% (4.0-7.3) 16.8% (14.2-19.6) Level 1 (very low package needs) 12.8% (6.8-20.8) 29.6% (20.0-39.7) Level 2 (low support package) 17.5% (11.7-24.4) 39.8% (31.6-47.6) Level 3 (moderate support package) 11.9% (5.2-21.5) 41.0% (28.3-53,1) Level 4 & 5 (high or very high support package) 9.9% (4.9-17.1) 56.9% (46.1-66.3) Age Group 50-64 6.8% (2.8-10.9) 10.2% (5.8-16.3) 65-69 6.2% (3.1-11.0) 13.0% (8.2-19.1) 70-74 6.0% (3.4-9.8) 18.2% (13.3-23.7) 75-79 9.0% (5.8-13.0) 24.6% (19.4-30.2) 80-84 8.0% (4.8-12.3) 27.2% (21.3-33.5) 85+ 12.7% (8.5-17.7) 49.0% (41.8-55.8) N 1,189 1,189
Extra care as a home for life III   All community match sample Domiciliary care match sample   Age 65+ Model 1 Age 75+ Model 2 Age 80+ Model 3 Age 65+ Model 4 Age 75+ Model 5 Age 80+ Model 6 Models adjusted for Age, Sex, Living Arrangements, Year Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Extra care housing  1.776 1.216 0.905 0.694 0.532* 0.316** (0.659) (0.471) (0.463) (0.207) (0.167) (0.121) N 1714 1034 624 1630 1028 634
[object Object],Extra care as a healthy home for life
[object Object],Extra care as a healthy home for life   Risk: improvement in health (decrease in care needs) All residents 24.0% (20.6-27.5) Gender Male 25.7% (19.5-32.3) Female 23.8% (19.3-27.5) Health Status/Care Needs on Arrival No additional support package 30.8% (24.7-37.1) Level 1 (very low package needs) 16.3% (9.4-24.8) Level 2 (low support package) 26.0% (19.1-33.5) Level 3 (moderate support package) 15.3% (7.5-25.6) Level 4 & 5 (high or very high support package) 14.9% (7.9-24.0) Village or Court development Court 9.2% (5.8-13.7) Village 32.1% (27.4-36.8) N 603
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Falls in extra care
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Extra care and overnight hospitalisation I
Extra care and overnight hospitalisation II
[object Object],Extra care and inferences on costs
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Extra care and inferences on costs II
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conclusions
Policy Recommendations I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Policy Recommendations II ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Thanks for your attention
Robin Darton PSSRU Extra Care
The PSSRU Evaluation of Extra Care  Housing Robin Darton Extra Care ‒ A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis?, International Longevity Centre ‒ UK, 13 September 2011
Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Project Team ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Extra Care Housing Fund: Aims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Aims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Linked Studies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Extra Care Schemes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Data Collection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Response (November 2010) No. No. resids No. with data No. with Res Q No. with Ass Q No. Ass Q + 6m No. Ass Q + 18m No. Ass Q  + 30m Smaller schemes 16 996 680 620 645 390 187 114 Villages 3 896 568 562 172 63 61 9 Total 19 1894 1248 1182 817 453 248 123
Entrants  to Extra Care (2006-10): Require Help with IADLs
Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Require Help with ADLs
Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10) & Care Homes (2005): Barthel Index of ADL
Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10) & Care Homes (2005): MDS CPS
Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Change in Dependency by Follow-Up Follow-up % deteriorated % improved Barthel Index of ADL 0‒6 months 9 12 0‒30 months 22 8 MDS CPS 0‒6 months 8 6 0‒30 months 6 14
Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Location at End of Study Number % Still in scheme 458 56.1 Moved 69 8.4 Nursing home 29 3.5 Care home 16 2.0 Elsewhere/not known 24 2.9 Died 161 19.7 Died in scheme 62 7.6 Died elsewhere 99 12.1 Lost to follow-up 129 15.8
Entrants to 11 Extra Care Schemes (2006-07): Mortality & Survival Number of individuals 374 Number of deaths 115 Mean time to death 20 months % died by 30 months (≥65) 34% Predicted median (50%) survival from model: Extra care (≥65) 32 months Care home (2005) 21 months Nursing home (2005) 10 months
Cost Variations: Factors Associated with Higher Costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cost-Effectiveness ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Social Well-Being Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Other Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PSSRU Evaluation: Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contacts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Jeremy Porteus Housing LIN Extra Care
Extra Care – a sustainable solution  to the care crisis? Jeremy Porteus 13 September 2011
The economic case for independence at home? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The challenges facing health and social care ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key policy developments and reports ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some questions when thinking about solutions for independent living for an ageing society ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Jeremy Porteus Housing LIN  c/o EAC 3rd Floor, 89 Albert Embankment London, SE1 7TP UK email:  [email_address] email:  [email_address] tel: 07899 652626 tel: 020 7820 8077 website:  www.housinglin.org.uk
Tuesday 13 September 2011 Extra Care – A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis? www.ilcuk.org.uk

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Extra Care: A sustainable solution to the care crisis?

  • 1. Tuesday 13 September 2011 Extra Care – A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis? www.ilcuk.org.uk
  • 2. Baroness Sally Greengross ILC-UK Extra Care
  • 3. Dylan Kneale ILC-UK Extra Care
  • 4. Establishing the extra in Extra Care: Perspectives from three Extra Care Housing Providers Dylan Kneale International Longevity Centre, September 13 th 2011
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Extra care housing What do we know about extra care housing?
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 12. Extra care as a home for life I   Length of time until exit (all exits)   First quartile (25%) Median (50%) All residents 3.1 6.5 Gender Male 2.6 6.0 Female 3.4 6.7
  • 13. Extra care as a home for life II: Competing Risks Framework   Risk 1: moving to an institution Risk 2: death All residents 8.2% (6.7-9.9) 25.0% (22.4-27.5) Gender Male 6.4% (4.3-9.1) 30.6% (26.0-35.3) Female 9.1% (7.2-11.3) 22.0% (19.2-25.1) Health Status/Care Needs on Arrival No additional support package 5.5% (4.0-7.3) 16.8% (14.2-19.6) Level 1 (very low package needs) 12.8% (6.8-20.8) 29.6% (20.0-39.7) Level 2 (low support package) 17.5% (11.7-24.4) 39.8% (31.6-47.6) Level 3 (moderate support package) 11.9% (5.2-21.5) 41.0% (28.3-53,1) Level 4 & 5 (high or very high support package) 9.9% (4.9-17.1) 56.9% (46.1-66.3) Age Group 50-64 6.8% (2.8-10.9) 10.2% (5.8-16.3) 65-69 6.2% (3.1-11.0) 13.0% (8.2-19.1) 70-74 6.0% (3.4-9.8) 18.2% (13.3-23.7) 75-79 9.0% (5.8-13.0) 24.6% (19.4-30.2) 80-84 8.0% (4.8-12.3) 27.2% (21.3-33.5) 85+ 12.7% (8.5-17.7) 49.0% (41.8-55.8) N 1,189 1,189
  • 14. Extra care as a home for life III   All community match sample Domiciliary care match sample   Age 65+ Model 1 Age 75+ Model 2 Age 80+ Model 3 Age 65+ Model 4 Age 75+ Model 5 Age 80+ Model 6 Models adjusted for Age, Sex, Living Arrangements, Year Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Sub-hazard ratio of moving to an institution Extra care housing 1.776 1.216 0.905 0.694 0.532* 0.316** (0.659) (0.471) (0.463) (0.207) (0.167) (0.121) N 1714 1034 624 1630 1028 634
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Extra care and overnight hospitalisation II
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Robin Darton PSSRU Extra Care
  • 27. The PSSRU Evaluation of Extra Care Housing Robin Darton Extra Care ‒ A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis?, International Longevity Centre ‒ UK, 13 September 2011
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. PSSRU Evaluation: Response (November 2010) No. No. resids No. with data No. with Res Q No. with Ass Q No. Ass Q + 6m No. Ass Q + 18m No. Ass Q + 30m Smaller schemes 16 996 680 620 645 390 187 114 Villages 3 896 568 562 172 63 61 9 Total 19 1894 1248 1182 817 453 248 123
  • 36. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Require Help with IADLs
  • 37. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Require Help with ADLs
  • 38. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10) & Care Homes (2005): Barthel Index of ADL
  • 39. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10) & Care Homes (2005): MDS CPS
  • 40. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Change in Dependency by Follow-Up Follow-up % deteriorated % improved Barthel Index of ADL 0‒6 months 9 12 0‒30 months 22 8 MDS CPS 0‒6 months 8 6 0‒30 months 6 14
  • 41. Entrants to Extra Care (2006-10): Location at End of Study Number % Still in scheme 458 56.1 Moved 69 8.4 Nursing home 29 3.5 Care home 16 2.0 Elsewhere/not known 24 2.9 Died 161 19.7 Died in scheme 62 7.6 Died elsewhere 99 12.1 Lost to follow-up 129 15.8
  • 42. Entrants to 11 Extra Care Schemes (2006-07): Mortality & Survival Number of individuals 374 Number of deaths 115 Mean time to death 20 months % died by 30 months (≥65) 34% Predicted median (50%) survival from model: Extra care (≥65) 32 months Care home (2005) 21 months Nursing home (2005) 10 months
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. Jeremy Porteus Housing LIN Extra Care
  • 51. Extra Care – a sustainable solution to the care crisis? Jeremy Porteus 13 September 2011
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57. Tuesday 13 September 2011 Extra Care – A Sustainable Solution to the Care Crisis? www.ilcuk.org.uk

Editor's Notes

  1. So far, 2010 has confirmed the growth in the number of unique visitors: there has been a general increase of 20% compared with the same months of 2009. October 2010 looks like it will have broken our personal record for the highest number of unique visitors to the website.
  2. So far, 2010 has confirmed the growth in the number of unique visitors: there has been a general increase of 20% compared with the same months of 2009. October 2010 looks like it will have broken our personal record for the highest number of unique visitors to the website.
  3. So far, 2010 has confirmed the growth in the number of unique visitors: there has been a general increase of 20% compared with the same months of 2009. October 2010 looks like it will have broken our personal record for the highest number of unique visitors to the website.
  4. So far, 2010 has confirmed the growth in the number of unique visitors: there has been a general increase of 20% compared with the same months of 2009. October 2010 looks like it will have broken our personal record for the highest number of unique visitors to the website.
  5. Up to 1000 followers on Twitter (as of 20 th October)
  6. Up to 1000 followers on Twitter (as of 20 th October)
  7. 16/09/11
  8. 16/09/11
  9. Department of Health (2003) Letter to Chief Executives of Local Councils with Social Services Responsibilities, 21 August 2003. 21/10/2008
  10. 16/09/11
  11. 16/09/11
  12. Changes from bids: Milton Keynes: 250 -> 258 Brighton: 37 -> 38 Havering: 62 -> 64 Staffordshire: 27 -> 42 (replacement) Stoke-on-Trent: 53 -> 75 (replacement) Hartlepool: 225 -> 242 Cheshire: 232 -> 124 (replacement) North Yorkshire: 36 -> 39 Wakefield: 45 -> 45 (replacement) West Sussex (Crawley): 50 -> 39 (replacement) 21/10/2008
  13. 16/09/11
  14. 1170 includes: 178 refusals (15%) 47 not able (4%) 77 deaths (7%) Response = residents assessed/(permanent/care units) 16/09/11
  15. Barthel Index for 221 of 281 at 6 months Change 4+ likely to represent genuine change (Collin et al, 1988) 1995 longitudinal survey of care homes: 1366 in residential care (1091 with 6 month data/died) Including deaths for care home residents (25%): 41% deteriorated/died 42% no change 17% improved 16/09/11
  16. 16/09/11
  17. 16/09/11
  18. Importance of mobility in use of facilities Association between refusals & dependency for some schemes, e.g. Havering (33%, highest mean Barthel = 16.4), but Wakefield (49%, lowest mean Barthel = 10.9) & Northamptonshire (40%, mean Barthel = 12.5) 16/09/11
  19. Importance of mobility in use of facilities Association between refusals & dependency for some schemes, e.g. Havering (33%, highest mean Barthel = 16.4), but Wakefield (49%, lowest mean Barthel = 10.9) & Northamptonshire (40%, mean Barthel = 12.5) 16/09/11
  20. Importance of mobility in use of facilities Association between refusals & dependency for some schemes, e.g. Havering (33%, highest mean Barthel = 16.4), but Wakefield (49%, lowest mean Barthel = 10.9) & Northamptonshire (40%, mean Barthel = 12.5) 16/09/11
  21. 21/10/2008
  22. Importance of mobility in use of facilities Association between refusals & dependency for some schemes, e.g. Havering (33%, highest mean Barthel = 16.4), but Wakefield (49%, lowest mean Barthel = 10.9) & Northamptonshire (40%, mean Barthel = 12.5) 16/09/11
  23. Importance of mobility in use of facilities Association between refusals & dependency for some schemes, e.g. Havering (33%, highest mean Barthel = 16.4), but Wakefield (49%, lowest mean Barthel = 10.9) & Northamptonshire (40%, mean Barthel = 12.5) 16/09/11
  24. 16/09/11