A presentation by Alison Misselhorn at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

1. Food insecurity in southern Africa: integrating some of the evidence Presented by Alison Misselhornat the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008

2. INTRODUCTION Summary of findings from ‘What Drives Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: a meta-analysis of household economy studies” Shifts in the food insecurity context since 2004 Some issues from experience Key issues looking ahead Questions to consider

7. Wild food

9. People’s access to cultivated, wild and imported foods

10. Extent and availability of human, economic, biophysical and social resources

11. Economic

12. Demographic

13. Socio-political

14. Biophysical

16. Soil

17. Climate

18. Terrain/slope

19. Pests & diseases

22. In & out-migration

23. Sale of assets

24. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of mealsFood insecurity Failure to access own food:65% Failure to produce own food: 35% Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12 Poverty 7 Increase in food prices 5 Failure in land rights/ land access 5 Lack of employment 5 Lack of education 5 Poor market access 4 Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4 Poor human health 4 Low regional cereal availability 4 Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4 In- and out- migration 4 Inflation 4 Social and political unrest or war 3 Sale of assets 3 Insufficient agricultural inputs 3 Government policies 3 TOTAL 80 33 % shock: 67% ongoing Underlying drivers % Poverty 21 Climate & env. Stressors 17 Social & political unrest 12 Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5 Government policies 5 In- and out- migration 4 Poor human health 4 Sale of assets 4 Low regional cereal avail. 4 Lack of education 3 Population pressure 3 TOTAL 81

25. Underlying drivers of food insecurity % Poverty 21 Climate & env. Stressors 17 Social & political unrest 12 Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5 Government policies 5 In- and out- migration 4 Poor human health 4 Sale of assets 4 Low regional cereal avail. 4 Lack of education 3 Population pressure 3 TOTAL 81 50%

27. In & out-migration

28. Sale of assets

29. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of mealsFood insecurity Failure to access own food:65% Failure to produce own food: 35% Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12 Poverty 7 Increase in food prices 5 Failure in land rights/ land access 5 Lack of employment 5 Lack of education 5 Poor market access 4 Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4 Poor human health 4 Low regional cereal availability 4 Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4 In- and out- migration 4 Inflation 4 Social and political unrest or war 3 Sale of assets 3 Insufficient agricultural inputs 3 Government policies 3 TOTAL 80 33 % shock: 67% ongoing Underlying drivers % Poverty 21 Climate & env. Stressors 17 Social & political unrest 12 Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5 Government policies 5 In- and out- migration 4 Poor human health 4 Sale of assets 4 Low regional cereal avail. 4 Lack of education 3 Population pressure 3 TOTAL 81

30. Direct drivers of food insecurity % Climate & env. Stressors 12 Poverty 7 Increase in food prices 5 Failure in land rights/ land access 5 Lack of employment 5 Lack of education 5 Poor market access 4 Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4 Poor human health 4 Low regional cereal availability 4 Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4 In- and out- migration 4 Inflation 4 Social and political unrest or war 3 Sale of assets 3 Insufficient agricultural inputs 3 Government policies 3 TOTAL 80 33 % shock: 67% ongoing

32. In & out-migration

33. Sale of assets

34. Decrease in the number & dietary variation of mealsFood insecurity Failure to access own food:65% Failure to produce own food: 35% Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12 Poverty 7 Increase in food prices 5 Failure in land rights/ land access 5 Lack of employment 5 Lack of education 5 Poor market access 4 Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4 Poor human health 4 Low regional cereal availability 4 Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4 In- and out- migration 4 Inflation 4 Social and political unrest or war 3 Sale of assets 3 Insufficient agricultural inputs 3 Government policies 3 TOTAL 80 33 % shock: 67% ongoing Underlying drivers % Poverty 21 Climate & env. Stressors 17 Social & political unrest 12 Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5 Government policies 5 In- and out- migration 4 Poor human health 4 Sale of assets 4 Low regional cereal avail. 4 Lack of education 3 Population pressure 3 TOTAL 81

36. Factors determining food ACCESS have more of an impact than those determining AVAILABILITY

37. Variations across communities & contexts: but similar processes:Cycle of intensifying vulnerability – even so-called coping strategies not necessarily sustainable

38. FINDINGS: Conflict, HIV and diversification strategies can have severely negative impact on household and community social capital resources

40. Magnification of existing problems

41. HIV food insecurity

43. In recent years global cereal consumption been consistently less than production

44. Urbanisation

45. Increased demand high value products

46. Shift to biofuels

47. Increasing transport costs

49. Human health & ability to work

53. Vulnerability = exposure and sensitivity to livelihood shocks and stressors

54. Vulnerability mapping – Umkhanyakude case study

57. Indicators Components of the UVI Clinics (15%) Interconnectivity (20%) Schools (15%) Education (50%) Road access (20%) Poverty (50%) Economic wellbeing (25%) Employment (50%) Malnutrition (10%) Health and security (25%) Sanitation (10%) Access to potable water (20%) Water-borne disease risk (20%) Orphans (20%) Informal housing (20%) Age distribution (60%) Demographic structure (20%) Gender ratio (40%) Employment agric sector (50%) Natural resource dependence (10%) Rural population (50%)

58. Give us some insight into possible interactions between underlying development-related issues and ‘superimposed’ factors such as climate change

61. Increasing food insecurity

62. Unemployment, food price increases, HIV/AIDS, poor quality diets, adverse environmental conditions and poverty

63. Decreasing desire and/or ability to engage in small holder agriculture

65. opportunities to diversify their local livelihood strategies;

66. access to land, water and other natural resources;

67. access credit and extension services.

68. interventions to improve the nutritional situation

70. However, plenty of evidence suggests that social safety nets, such as cash transfers, have a valuable role to play

73. How do we think of small holder agriculture in the context of changing livelihoods and sometimes changing expectations?

75. How can we better collaborate with existing efforts for faster and greater impact?

76. Adaptation work – e.g. CCAA, OXFAM

77. Social transfers – e.g. RHVP, UN and Partners Alliance

78. Agricultural policy – e.g. CAADP