Presented by Iain Wright at the Workshop on Innovation Laboratory on Livestock and Climate Change, World Bank, Washington, 29 May 2014

1. Feeding the World: Smallholders and Livestock
Iain Wright
Innovation Laboratory on Livestock and Climate Change
World Bank, Washington, 29 May 2014

2. OUTLINE
The global challenge for agriculture
Livestock dimensions
Role of smallholders
Livestock challenges and opportunities
A bit about ILRI

3. THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE
How the world would feed itself sustainably by
the time population stabilizes?
 60% more food than is produced now
 75% of this must come from productivity
increase
 While also reducing poverty
 Taking care of natural resources
 Coping with climate change

4. The global livestock sector
 Total animals:
17 billion
 Asset value:
$1.4 trillion
 Employs:
1.3 billion people
 Uses:
1/3 of the earth’s
ice-free surface
4

5. Four of the five highest value global
agricultural commodities are livestock products
5
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data

6. Four out of the ten highest value
African commodities are livestock
6
Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data

7. Livestock contribution to GDP
•Livestock accounts
for 35-40% of Ag
GDP in developing
countries
•Attracts 5-10% of
investment
•Growing at 2.5-
6.0%

8. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Milliontons
Developing
Developed
Where is the growth?
Gains in meat consumption in developing countries
is outpacing that of developed countries and this is expected to continue

9. Growing Incomes are a key catalyst to demand growth
for livestock products
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Percapitameatconsumpion(kg/year)
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
US
Japan
Chi
Ind
Bra

10. Percentage increase in demand
for livestock products
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Developing Countries Developed Countries
Meat
Milk
Eggs
2000 to 2040
IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries

11. 0
5
10
15
20
90 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009
Milliontonnes
Beef Pork PoultryMeat Ovine
Trade matters - but local markets matter more
The value of meat
trade is estimated over
$100 billion in 2011,
approximately 10
percent of agricultural
trade.
However, trade of meat
accounts for only 10
percent of consumption

12. Food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009

13. Livestock for livelihoods -developing world
 70% of the world’s rural poor rely on livestock for
important parts of their livelihoods.
 Of the 1 billion poor livestock keepers in the
world, around two-thirds are rural women.
 More than half of livestock products are
produced by small holders –and growing
 Farm sizes will continue to decline in Africa
 Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping
come from non-market, intangible benefits,
mostly insurance and financing.
 Animal source foods are important for nutritional
security

14. Livestock keepers in developing countries
Density of poor
livestock keepers
One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock
600 million in south Asia
300 million in sub Saharan Africa
ILRI, 2012
0 or no data

15. Livestock opportunities and challenges
 Feeding the World
• Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the
global kilocalories.
 Removing poverty
• Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods
 Managing the environment
• Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions;
use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free
land
 Improving human health
• Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods
• Malnutrition and obesity
Livestock non-tradables make large contributions to the rural
poor
• Manure, Energy (traction, fuel), cultural
15

16. To eat meat or not to eat . . .
One billion hungry Two billion overweight

17. Source: (Steinfeld et al. 2006)
Large productivity gaps between rich
and poor countries are not closing
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
411
1021
517
4226
397
1380
904
6350
Africa Latin America South Asia Industrialized
Countries
Milk
(kg/cow/yr)
1980 2005

18. Addressing GHG inefficiencies in the
developing world is an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS
GHG per kg of animal protein produced

19. 19
Increasing productivity reduces GHC emissions

20. Growth scenarios for livestock systems
 ‘Strong growth’
– Where good market access and
increasing productivity provide
opportunities for continued
smallholder participation.
 ‘Fragile growth’
– Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro-climatic
vulnerability restrict intensification.
 ‘High growth with externalities’
– Fast changing livestock systems
potentially damaging the
environment and human health
 Different research and development
challenges for poverty, food security,
health and nutrition, environment

21. ILRI and CGIAR research programs
Dryland Cereals
Grain Legumes
Livestock and Fish
Maize
Rice
Roots, Tubers and Bananas
Wheat
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Forests, Trees and Agroforestry
Water, Land and Ecosystems
Integrated Systems for the Humid Tropics
Aquatic Agricultural Systems
Dryland Systems
Policies, Institutions, and Markets
Agriculture for Nutrition and Health

22. ILRI Resources
• Staff: 700.
• Budget: $83 million.
• 30+ scientific disciplines.
• 140 senior scientists from 39 countries.
• 56% of internationally recruited
staff are from 22 developing countries.
• 34% of internationally recruited staff
are women.
• Large campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia.
• 70% of research in sub-Saharan Africa.

23. ILRI’s research teams
23
Integrated sciences Biosciences
Animal science for sustainable
productivity
BecA-ILRI hub
Food safety and zoonoses Vaccine platform
Livestock systems and the
environment
Animal bioscience
Livelihoods, gender and impact Feed and forage bioscience
Policy, trade, value chains Bioscience facilities

24. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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