Presented by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero and A. Ayantunde at the Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project Research Planning Meeting, Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Research Support Program (LCC CRSP), ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011.

1. Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011

2. Pastoralists and climate risk OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens

3. Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.

4. Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ

5. Rainfall and NDVI Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.

6. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya

7. Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS

8. Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS

11. Climate Change Image of the Future

12. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event Ericksen et al, 2011

13. Unpublished IRLI analysis

14. East Africa: Simulated plant funtional types: (top) 20th century (bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model) Doherty et al 2009

17. Will CC mean more or less livestock production in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?

18. What do the exposure thresholds mean for dryland areas?

19. Constraints on social/ econ/ institutional issues of adaptive capacity

20. Safety nets

21. Markets

22. Land tenure