"Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa," July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré

1. Trends and driving forces in livestock
production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa
C. Sere and M. Herrero
The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead
Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium

2. Livestock and livelihoods (1)
– Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid et
al 2008)
– Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4
trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock
industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)
– Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ
at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)
– Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable
communities (Freeman et al 2007)
– Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops
in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area
receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)

3. Livestock and livelihoods (3)
– Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie
consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT
2008)
– Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure
people (Gerber
– Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but…
highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in
the developing World
– . Europe - 2000 SSA - 2000
3%
3%
10% Meat Meat
24% 4%
11% Dairy Dairy
37% Fruit & Vegetables Fruit & Vegetables
5% Cereals
Cereals 3%
Roots & Tubers Roots & Tubers
47%
1% Dryland crops 16% Dryland crops
31% Others Others
5%
Herrero et al 2008a

4. At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on
livestock
ILRI 2009

5. Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030)
Population in 2000 Population in 2030
(1000 of people) (1000 of people)
Farming system
(Agro-)Pastoral 80,160 140,820
Mixed Extensive 258,680 484,750
Mixed Potentially Intensify 168,150 327,070
Other 109,180 190,310
Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will
nearly double to 2030!!
Herrero et al 2009

6. Consumption of livestock products in the
developing world is projected to increase even faster
70
60
cereals, food
50
cereals, all uses
change 2001 - 2030 (%)
40 veg. oils, oilseeds and
by-products
meat
30
milk
20
10
0
developing countries industrial countries
-10
IAASTD 2007

7. Cereal yields
Increasing….except in
Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank 2007

8. Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000)
Cereals Production 2000
3% 5%
24%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
68%
Herrero et al 2009

9. Rates of cereal production diminishing in
places due to water and other constraints
Annual changes in Cereal Production
Rates lower than those of population
2000 - 2030 Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar
growth to developed countries
Catching up
6
5
4
3
%
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009

10. …but rates of production of animal products
are increasing at significantly faster rates….
Herrero et al 2009
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
8
7
6
5 Increased consumption
4
Increased incomes
%
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
9
8
7
6
…but increased pressure on 5
%
resources (land, feeds, etc) 4
3
2
1
Some industrialisation…. 0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

11. Herrero et al 2009

12. 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed
areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007
Dependence on green and blue water 2000

13. ILRI
Small Scale Dairy
Existing value chain Proposed value chain
Plant breeders
Water conservation/ Soil scientists
supply
Seeds
Crop residues Fertilizers Micro-finance Monitoring /
Fodder production Feed/Minerals Evaluation
Pasture
development
Fodder producers /
Traders
Milk Milk processing/
Small holder/ Hub/ Consumer
collection marketing
Dairy cattle Local org.
Breed selection
Breeding services
Superior germplasm Training /
Performance evaluation Vaccinations
Capacity building
Deworming Paravet
Disease Investigation Veterinarian
Lab services Veterinary services
Input supply
National/ Regional Players
Private Entrepreneurs
Wider Replication
Hedge 2009

14. Mean CC impacts on yields
Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%]
2050s compared to 1990s
With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization
% %
n=15; n=15;
3SRES, 3SRES,
5GCM 5GCM
PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results

15. Conclusions
• Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be
the backbone of agriculture and livestock
production in Sub Saharan Africa
• Domestic and regional markets – essential
• Improved market access, competitiveness,
reduction of transactions costs necessary
• Significant room for intensification, particularly in
areas of medium agricultural potential
• More livestock due to climate change?