Report on Cancun COP16

Kyoto and Beyond

Report on Cancun COP16
The 4th installment in an ongoing series on
multilateral agreements related to climate change

www.isciences.com February 1, 2011

Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving
international climate treaty process that began with the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Report on Cancun COP16 is a summary of the process
of negotiations that transpired during COP16,
Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010.

Other presentations in the series include*:
• Kyoto and beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral
Agreements on Climate Change (2008)
• Report on Copenhagen COP15 (2009)
• Road to Cancun COP16 (2010)

* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Contents
COP16 Overview

The Cancun Agreements

Thoughts and Opinions

Issues Still Looming

Looking Towards the Future

COP16 in Cancun Mexico
Nov. 29 – Dec. 10, 2010
Due to the frustrations that resulted from COP15 in
Copenhagen, COP16 was intentionally under-publicized in
order to avoid giving the public false expectations.
The tone leading up to COP16 was subdued, a mood that
remained through the entirety of the talks.
The talks were so
downplayed that
some Heads of State
and top government
officials did not
attend.

Image credit: Wikicommons

For a day-by-day account of COP16 see slides 38-50.

COP16 Overview
The UNFCCC Process Moves Forward
By its conclusion, the climate meeting was deemed an overall
success and the UNFCCC climate treaty process was rejuvenated.
“The Cancun Agreements” were considered
substantive steps and were favorably reviewed by
global climate analysts.

The “Agreements” demonstrated that the UNFCCC
process could achieve progress.

Three of the world’s major carbon emitters, the US,
China, and India, all approved the agreements.

Most importantly, COP16 resulted in a text titled “The
Cancun Agreements” consisting of five main elements:

1) Financing through the Green Climate Fund
2) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation (REDD+)
3) Increasing transparency through monitoring,
reporting, and verification (MRV)
4) Formalizing the emissions reduction pledges
made at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark
5) Creating a new Adaptation Framework
Draft of the agreement is available at:
http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/Report_on_Cancun_COP16/The%20Cancun%20Agreements.pdf

Unresolved Issue
However, no second commitment period for the Kyoto
Protocol was established, leaving the future of the Protocol
uncertain as it expires on December 31, 2012.
On opening day of COP16, Japan, Canada, and Australia
announced their refusal to consign to a 2nd commitment
period, citing that the Protocol does not bind two of the top
emitters: China, “a developing country”; and the US, which
rejected the treaty in 2001.

Towards the end of COP16, Russia also announced its
opposition to a 2nd commitment period.

The future of the Protocol was postponed once again, tabled
until COP17 in Durban, South Africa.
For background on the Kyoto Protocol see slide 37

Process Breakthrough
COP16 President Patricia Espinosa’s role in the negotiation
process was crucial to the outcome. Her leadership paved the
way for official acceptance of the Cancun Agreements.
During negotiations Bolivian
Ambassador and
representative, Pablo Solon,
protested decisions, claiming
them to be “hollow,” and
charging that developing
nations were “bullied” by
developed nations into
Image credit: http://theforeigner.no
accepting outcomes.
Espinosa overruled Solon’s objections, asserting that
involved delegates felt the fate of the consensus should not
be determined by one objecting party in an otherwise
unanimous vote.

Mexico’s Pivotal Role
Upon the start of COP16, Mexico was under pressure to create
an atmosphere that would increase the likelihood of a legally
binding agreement being created.
Prior to the talks, Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico, had
made climate change a top priority through the development
of domestic legislation as well as investment in international
climate change policy.

The success at COP16 proved Mexico’s willingness and ability
to produce positive results. It also provided evidence to the
international community that developing countries have
significant influence and play an important role in the
process.

Upon the end of the talks, the U.S. praised the decisions
made by Patricia Espinosa and congratulated Calderon for his
leadership and for Mexico’s contributions and work.
Coutesy: http://www.mexicool.com/15/mexico-map-of-mexico/

COP 16: Role of the Big Emitters
India played a significant role during the talks. Jairam Ramesh,
India’s Environment Minister, claims that many of India’s
contributions were incorporated into the final text agreement.

Contributions initiated by India included the idea for
International Consultation and Analysis, a transparency
mechanism created to ensure that developing countries
carry out the necessary domestic mitigation actions.
“India should be seen as part of the solution.” – Jairam Ramesh

NOTE: India’s total carbon
emissions are expected to
reach between 4 billion and
7.3 billion tonnes by 2031.

Image credit: http://www.daylife.com/topic/Jairam_Ramesh/photos

China offered, for the first time, to consider making its emissions
reductions target binding. The offer is anticipated to inspire
increased action in developed nations. China was also adamant
that countries should commit to a 2nd period of the Protocol.
China’s target is
viewed as one of the
most ambitious of
the participating
countries, with a
goal of cutting
carbon intensity by
40-45% from 2005
levels by 2020.
Image Credit:
http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/12/chinas_carbon_intensity_pledge.shtml

However, China’s reductions remain voluntary for the time being, and
the issue of reducing its total emissions budget is not addressed.

U.S. representative Todd Stern, Special Envoy for Climate
Change, emphasized upon arrival that the U.S. would not
be accepting a text that resembled a “watered down”
version of the Copenhagen Accord.
This meant insistence on a
more balanced package
including elements such as
the establishment of a Green
Fund and improvements on
adaptation and REDD+
Image Credit: http://tinyurl.com/4tyqu68

Stern also stressed the commitment from the United States
and President Obama to work alongside the global
community to find a solution to climate change.
NOTE: The United States is the world’s 2nd largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Recently,
the U.S. invested 90 billion dollars into renewable energy to reduce negative impact.

COP 16 Verdict

Available at: http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/Report_on_Cancun_COP16/The%20Cancun%20Agreements.pdf

The Green Climate Fund
 To be initiated in 2020, the Green Climate Fund will
allocate $100 billion towards helping developing nations
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
 The fund will assist developing nations adapt to negative
effects of climate change that have already occurred. This
includes using shifting agriculture towards drought-
resistant crops and building sea walls that protect against
rising ocean levels and storm surges.
 A portion of the funds will be contributed by developed
countries. (To view a table of the current pledged funds
see slide 36.)
 The board that governs the fund will consist of 25 people
representing developed and developing countries equally.
 The World Bank will be the trustee of the fund.

Reducing Carbon Emissions from Deforestation (REDD+)

 The deal reached at COP16 emphasizes need for
countries to reduce harmful emissions made from
deforestation (see slide 35).
 An agreement was made to increase funds
towards REDD+.
 Calls for the creation of incentives for local
people, governments, and industries to alter their
practices towards to agricultural methods that do
not rely on the clearing of land by cutting down
trees.
 The decision made on deforestation reduction
was considered to be one of the most crucial
agreements made during COP16.

Transparency Provision: Monitoring, Reporting, and Verifying

 Both developed and developing countries are required
to give more frequent reporting of emissions through
submissions of biennial reports.
 Developing countries will undergo international
consultations regarding these reports. The agreements
stress that this must be done in respectful, non-invasive
manner.
 Reports are to be analyzed by technical experts.
 The provisions are meant to improve the reliability and
quality of country pledges.
 The Cancun Agreements also call for the creation of
workshops to clarify country targets and help estimate
emissions reductions that could occur post-2012.

Incorporating the Copenhagen Accord into the UN Process
The deal brings the non-binding emissions reduction pledges made in
the Copenhagen Accord from COP15 into the formal UN process.

NOTE: These
voluntary
pledges are
anticipated to
become legally
binding in the
future.

BAU = “Business
As Usual”

Image Credit: http://www.iie.com/realtime/?p=1173

Cancun Adaptation Framework
 The framework calls for assistance to the Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) to create national
adaptation plans and climate change strategies.
 The framework has established an Adaptation
Committee in order to assure that issues related
to adaptation are handled with more attention
and focus under the UNFCCC.
 Certain small island states have already
experienced damage due to climate change which
has disabled adaptation in these areas. To address
this issue, the Alliance of Small Island States
proposed a plan to compensate countries for loss
and damages. The plan includes possible
insurance policies and rehabilitation.

Thoughts and Opinions

Ban Ki Moon, UN
Secretary Christina Figueres,
Todd Stern, U.S. UNFCCC Executive
Special Envoy for Secretary
Climate Change

Pablo Solon, Bolivia’s
Felipe Calderon, Patricia Espinosa, UN Ambassador
President of Mexico President of COP16

To view thoughts and opinions see slides 29-34.

Issues Still Looming: Temperature Rise
Scientists have stated that the current emissions reduction
pledges could result in a temperature rise of 3.2°C instead
of 2°C as sought in the UNFCCC process. Some even
estimate a 4-5°C rise.
Projected Global Temperature Increase
Temperature Rise from Pre-industrial Time
Credit: Rogelj et al, Nature

Estimates
Scientific range of uncertainty
Observations

Image adapted from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8635765.stm

Issues Still Looming: Temperature Rise
The likelihood of limiting increase of global average
temperature to no more than 2°C is increasingly remote.
The Gigatonne Breakdown: Prior COPs stressed the need
to prevent a global temperature increase of more than 2 C
in order to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system.” Reducing the annual global GHG
emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (Gt) by 2020 is required
to limit warming to +2 C.

However: Expected emissions for 2020 range between
48.8 to 51.2 Gt of CO2-equivalent, based on whether high
or low emission reduction pledges will be fulfilled.

A best-case scenario: If countries implement promised cuts,
we would still produce between 0.5 and 8.8 Gt per annum
over what scientists see as tolerable.

Still Looming: Future of the Kyoto Protocol?
The most anticipated issue at COP16 was the future of the Kyoto
Protocol, and many hoped for an answer on whether there
would be a 2nd commitment period.
No answer was determined, due to opposition from countries
to sign on to an agreement that does not include binding
emissions reductions for emerging economies such as China
and India.
The Cancun Agreements include a segment stating the goal
to make a decision about the Protocol’s future as soon as
possible. This would avoid a significant gap between the 1st
and 2nd commitment periods.
Developed nations are willing to extend the Protocol as long
as all countries are committed to making emissions cuts,
developing countries included.
A final answer is anticipated at COP17 in Durban, South Africa

Looking Towards the Future
Between 30 to 40 thousand heads of state, government officials,
and climate change activists are expected to attend COP 17,
scheduled on December of 2011 in Durban, South Africa.
There will be heightened pressure on COP17 compared to
COP16 due it being the last chance to reach a new climate
change deal before the end of the first commitment
period of the Protocol.
There is an increase in
global confidence that
a deal can be found in
Durban, whereas
people were skeptical
of a deal being
reached during COP16
due to the perceived
failure of COP15.
Image credit: http://www.cop17durban.com/Pages/default.aspx

Conclusion

Although COP16 signified a step in the right direction, many
feel there is still much to be done. Nations risk dangerous
impacts due to climate change, and feel there is need for
further legislative action and increased international efforts.

COP16 succeeded in restoring international
faith in the UNFCCC’s climate change
process. It restored confidence that UNFCCC
Conference of the Parties convocations are
able to facilitate agreements and set higher
hopes for COP17 in Durban, South Africa.

Kyoto and Beyond will keep you informed as these important events continue to unfold

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Citation
When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation:

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Cancun COP16. A slideshow; 4th installment in the
series: Beyond Copenhagen. February 1, 2011. Ann Arbor, Michigan.
www.isciences.com.


Appendix
The following slides provide support for information presented in the
preceding slides.


COP 15: A Brief Review
 COP15 was unable to accomplish the objective of
establishing a new agreement that would follow
the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol, a commitment
to reduce GHG emissions, expires Dec. 31, 2012.

 Though discussions occurred on the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and on
adaptation, the general consensus was that
COP15 was unsuccessful.

 Independent of the official process, The
Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding voluntary
agreement on GHG emissions reductions was
drafted on the last day by the U.S. and Brazil,
South Africa, India, and China. (BASIC countries)

Image credit: Wikicommons
Return

Thoughts and Opinions of Ban Ki Moon
On Climate Change:

“Business as usual cannot be tolerated, for it would condemn millions – no, billions – billions of
children, women, and men around the world to shrinking horizons, and smaller futures.”

“This is a marathon race, not a sprint. Climate change was not created overnight. It will not be solved
overnight either.”

On COP16:

“I am deeply concerned that our efforts so far have been insufficient…that despite the evidence, and
many years of negotiation, we are still not rising to the challenge.”

“Parties need to agree on how – and when – to move forward after Cancun on issues still under
discussion.”

“My High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Financing concluded that it is challenging but it is possible
for developed countries to realize their goal of raising $100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to support
climate action in developing countries. I encourage Parties to use the Group’s findings as inputs to your
climate finance negotiations.”
Return

Thoughts and Opinions of Felipe Calderon
On Climate Change:

“Climate change is beginning to make us pay for the fatal errors we as humanity have committed
against the environment. “

“ As developing states grow, we are going to emit greenhouse gases ourselves. We’ll all be worsening
the problem. And the sad and paradoxical thing is that the smaller the states, the more vulnerable they
are. They haven’t in the past, nor today, aren’t emitting gases. They are not just vulnerable, they are on
the point of disappearance. I think we need new terms. “

On COP16:

“ It is less than what is needed, but it represents a significant step in the right direction.

“ It would be a tragedy if our inability to see beyond our personal interests, our group or national
interests makes us fail. “

Return

Thoughts and Opinions of Christiana Figueres
On Climate Change:

“ In the arena of climate change, the list of vulnerable nations is long, and growing. “

“ Climate change will affect all aspects of the water supply. To make matters worse, water is already
being badly managed in many locations. “

“ No sector will be immune to climate change … Sooner or later, all businesses will need to climate-
proof themselves. “

On COP16:

“ The deal here in Cancun will not guarantee all your short-term national interests, but reaching no
outcome here in Cancun will endanger everyone's long-term well-being. “

“ Cancun was a big step, bigger than many imagined would be possible. Governments renewed their
trust in each other, but to succeed fully they need to press boldly ahead with what they have agreed. “

Return

Thoughts and Opinions of Patricia Espinosa
On Climate Change:

“ There is a growing consensus on the need to act as quickly as possible. “

“ Dealing with climate change is in reality an intensely political matter that goes to the very heart of
development strategies and to the way our economies are run. It is an issue that demands close
guidance from the highest levels of government. “

On COP16:

“ Throughout 2010, and in our meetings here in Cancun, we have sought to build understandings while
also enhancing confidence. Every party must know what is happening and see that its views have been
considered. In negotiations between sovereign States, no group small or large can take decisions in the
name of everybody else. We will need every single delegation to engage others in the building of
compromise proposals in this final stretch. “

“ I believe that an ambitious, broad and balanced package of decisions is within reach. That does not
mean that we already have it in our grasp “

Return

Thoughts and Opinions of Todd Stern
On Climate Change:

“ The time for denial, delay and dispute is over. “

“ Evaporation and rainfall are increasing; glaciers are retreating; sea ice is shrinking; sea level is rising;
permafrost is melting; wildfires are increasing; storm and flood damage is soaring. The canary in the
coal mine is singing for all she's worth. “

On COP16:

“ What we have now is a text that, while not perfect, is certainly a good basis for moving forward..the
negotiations in the future will continue to be difficult “

“ I think that it’s a positive thing to see a worldwide agreement, one that includes all of the major
economies. “

Return
Click here to view video of Todd Stern’s remarks on COP16

Thoughts and Opinions of Pablo Solon
On Climate Change:

“ Bolivia is a small country. This means we are among the nations most vulnerable to climate change,
but with the least responsibility for causing the problem. Studies indicate that our capital city of La Paz
could become a desert within 30 years. What we do have is the privilege of being able to stand by our
ideals, of not letting partisan agendas obscure our principal aim: defending life and Earth. “

“ We face an unprecedented crisis, and false victories won't save the planet. “

On COP16:

“ For us, this is not a step forward. It is a step back, because what is being done here is postponing
without limit the discussion on the Kyoto Protocol. “

“ The text replaces binding mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions with voluntary pledges
that are wholly insufficient. These pledges contradict the stated goal of capping the rise in temperature
at 2C, instead guiding us to 4C or more. The text is full of loopholes for polluters, opportunities for
expanding carbon markets and similar mechanisms – like the forestry scheme Redd – that reduce the
obligation of developed countries to act.“

Return

Facts about Forests and Climate Change
 Global forests cover around 30% of the
Earth’s land surface. Total carbon content is
estimated at 638 Gt for 2005; this is more
than the amount of carbon in the entire
atmosphere.

 Deforestation, resulting in the immediate
release of carbon stored in trees as CO2, is
estimated at 13 million hectares per year.

 It is estimated that deforestation results in the emission of 5.8 Gt of CO2 per
year to global greenhouse gas emissions. According to John Podesta, the
President and CEO of the Center for American Progress, global emissions
from deforestation are equal to total emissions from the transportation
sector.
 The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report mentions that reducing deforestation
would have the largest carbon stock impact in the short term.
Return

COP 16: Climate Finance Pledges
Country Amount pledged ($USM)
Japan 15,000
European Union 9,595
France 1,697 The process of raising and delivering
Germany 1,680 the funds will be conducted with
Sweden 1,068 increased transparency.
Norway 1,000
Spain 500
This will hold countries accountable
Netherlands 467
and facilitate trust and cooperation
Canada 396
while helping to bridge the gap
Denmark 216
between developed and developing
Belgium 201
European 133
countries.
Commission
Ireland 133
Finland 110
Portugal 48
Luxembourg 12
Slovenia 11
Malta 1
Return
Information collected from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2010/nov/26/cancun-crucial-climate-data

The Kyoto Protocol

 The Protocol is a multilateral agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. Developed countries were assigned limits on emissions relative to
1990, and targets vary by nation.

 The protocol was signed by 84 countries and ratified by nearly all who signed.
The US did not ratify. Countries who ratified are now bound by Protocol
requirements.

 The Protocol, part of the UNFCCC, has been in force since 2005. The first
commitment period ends in 2012 and no binding framework has been
established post-2012.

 Four Conference of the Parties have taken place since the Protocol entered into
force. Each COP has been accompanied by a CMP, a meeting specific to the
Protocol.

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COP 16: The Process
Click one of the following dates for an account of the events.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
November 29th November 30th December 1st December 2nd
2010 2010 2010 2010

Monday, Sunday, Saturday, Friday,
December 6th December 5th December 4th December 3rd
2010 2010 2010 2010

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
December 7th December 8th December 9th December 10th
2010 2010 2010 2010

Return to Presentation

Key Events Monday, November 29th 2010
 A welcoming ceremony took place to mark the beginning of COP16 Climate
Change Talks in Cancun, Mexico with President Felipe Calderon in attendance.

 Barack Obama and David Cameron, UK Prime Minister, not in attendance.

 Meetings related to the Kyoto Protocol, side meetings with groups such as the
Alliance of Small Island States, and meetings of non-governmental organizations
began.

 Anticipation in the air of whether or not the talks would produce a concrete
agreement.

Click here to view an official write up of 11/29/2010 Return

Key Events Tuesday, November 30th 2010
 The Presentation of EU report on fast start financing took place, where the
European Union and member states presented a report on the progress in
implementing a fast-start financing commitment.

 An update was given on the progress of the finance portal being developed for
climate change by the UNFCCC.

 Bolivian Ambassador Pablo Solon presented Bolivia’s perspective of the Cancun
Agenda including the multilateral process at COP16, the need for a 2nd
commitment period of the Protocol, the dangers of carbon markets, and the
relationship of climate change policy to human rights


Key Events Wednesday, December 1st 2010
 Day was titled UN Water Day as it was centered around dialogues for water and
climate change.

 Meetings included: Panel on Droughts, Panel on Water Food and Energy, and
the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.


Key Events Thursday, December 2nd 2010

 Some meetings focused on climate change in the media and the difficulties
within the media to correctly portray climate change.

 Journalists from both developed and developing countries discussed issues that
both separate and unite media experts from different nations with diverse
cultures from one another.

 Other significant meetings included: The Impact of Fires and U.S. Climate
Change Assistance to Developing Countries.


Key Events Friday, December 3rd 2010
 Discussions occurred on China’s progress in becoming a world leader in clean
energy technology which, in turn, increased the pressure on the U.S.

 The Environment Minister for India claimed to have a possible solution to solve
deadlock between developed and developing nations over how to equally share
the burdens of climate change. Included in this proposal, countries would report
actions they take to decrease the negative effects of climate change.

 Other significant meetings included: Climate Change and Health, and
Partnerships for City Adaptation Strategies in Megacities.


Key Events Saturday, December 4th 2010

 A week-end press conference is held in which Christiana Figueres assured
listeners that governments were working cohesively and diligently.

 Discussions were centered on the question of the future of the Kyoto Protocol
and the importance of both participation and support.

 By this day, expectations were still low that an agreement would be reached.


Key Events Sunday, December 5th 2010
 No meetings were scheduled.

 COP16 President, Patricia Espinosa, held an informal plenary for country
delegates and the Environment Ministers who had just begun to arrive. Espinosa
announced a new method of working in which ministers from developed
countries would be paired with those from developing countries to work on
specific issues. Examples of the pairings include the following: Sweden and
Grenada to discuss shared vision, Spain and Algeria to discuss adaptation,
Australia and Bangladesh to discuss financing technology and capacity building,
and the United Kingdom and Brazil to discuss the Kyoto Protocol.


Key Events Monday, December 6th 2010
 Informal groups and meetings were held to discuss climate change impacts,
vulnerability, and adaptation.

 Countries spoke about expectations for COP17 in Durban, South Africa as well as
opinions of how “legally binding” can be defined.

 Important meetings included: The Air We Breathe Isn’t What It Used To Be and
U.S. State and Regional Climate Leadership


Key Events Tuesday, December 7th 2010
 This marked the day of the “high-level” segment of the talks, which is the
portion that many of the important decisions and agreements are to be made.

 Christiana Figueres gave a speech about the necessity of creativity and reason
when developing an agreement as well as stressed the importance of increased
cooperation amongst the participating countries. She brought to the table the
question of vulnerability and requested that the Ministers consider those who
are most vulnerable to climate change when discussing possible agreements.

 UN Secretary Ban Ki Moon gave a speech noting that, while a final agreement is
not required at COP16, there is expected to be progress on all issues in some
capacity.

 Felipe Calderon spoke and addressed the fact that billions internationally
expected to see results from COP16 and that there could not be failure to
deliver.


Key Events Wednesday, December 8th 2010
 Negotiations began to further intensify.

 Delegates met throughout the day to discuss issues related to Clean
Development Mechanism, Mitigation, the Adaptation Fund, and Joint
Implementation.

 There were also discussions focused on settling political differences.

 Patricia Espinosa gave a statement mentioning the Mexican Presidency’s
commitment to transparency.

 At this point the cooperation was increasing and it became clear that all parties
involved were determined to come to an agreement.


Key Events Thursday, December 9th 2010

 Informal meetings involving the Ministers were held all day, as was announced
by Patricia Espinosa in order to promote transparency.

 Espinosa was confident that a package could be found and agreed upon by the
end of the talks. She requested that the Ministers share the findings of their
discussions. These findings included: Sweden highlighting a temperature goal, a
long-term goal for emissions reduction, and a peaking cap of global emissions;
Norway and Ecuador spoke on REDD+ and issues related to financing and a
connection between a national and sub-national level.

 Consultations were encouraged to be held throughout the night to ensure that a
decision would be made by the following, final day.


Key Events Friday, December 10th 2010
 The talks concluded with a final agreement made titled “The Cancun
Agreements”

 A text was created and announced the following day, December 11th.


Carbon Intensity

Definition: The amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output
GDP.

NOTE: For China in particular, this will mean the carbon emissions from energy
consumption and industrial activity, which are the source of most of the country’s
emissions.

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