The document discusses the impact that increasing water scarcity will have on global food security. It provides historical examples of overexploitation of water resources in the Middle East, India, Australia, and other regions to meet growing demands. Reasons for rising water scarcity include population growth, changing diets, urbanization, biofuel production, and climate change. To ensure future food security, the document calls for adaptive responses like improving water storage and irrigation systems, increasing water productivity, and developing new policies around water allocation and management.

1. What will be the impact of water
scarcity on food security?
COLIN CHARTRES
International Water Management Institute

2. CONTENTS
• A history lesson
• Reasons for increasing water scarcity
• Adaptive responses
• Policy responses
• A call to action

3. Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie
Liters of Water
Daily Drinking Water 2 – 5 Liters of Water
Daily Household Use 20 – 500 Liters of Water
1kg of Grain 500 to 2,000 Liters of
Evapotranspiration (ET)
Livestock products (meat, 5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET
milk)
2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water!

4. A Middle Eastern History Lesson
(with acknowledgements to Coucier et al., 2005)
Mid
1950
1970s

5. LJRB (cont.)
2000s Mid
2020s

6. LJRV - history
In 60 years:
• 10,000 – 46,000 ha of irrigation
• All surface water committed
• Groundwater being severely mined
• Flows into Dead Sea reduced by c.80%
The question is have the development benefits
outweighed the environmental costs?
There has been some very dubious use of water
for poorly returning agriculture.

7. An Indian History Lesson

8. The Indian Groundwater Story
Transformation of Indian irrigation net area (million ha) by irrigation source
(after Shah, 2009)
1999-
1800 1850 1885-86 1938-39 1970-71 2000
Government
canals <1 ~1 2.8 9.8 24.2 31.2
Wells 2.0 2.6 3.5 5.3 13.9 53.6
Other sources 4.0 4.4 3.0 6.4 6.8 6.7
All sources 6 7 9.3 21.5 44.9 91.5
Irrigation area
as % of area
sown 10 10.3 12.4 25 31.4 53.5

9. India’s total available water resources are 1086 km3
BaU NCIWRD
Scenario high demand Seckler Rosegrant
Drivers Unit 2000 i projections ii Scenario ii et al.ii et al ii
2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2025
Population Million 1,007 1,389 1,583 1,383 1,581 1,273 1,352
- % urban population % 28 37 51 45 61 43 43
Total calorie supply/person/day Kcal 2,495 2,775 3,000 - - 2,812 -
Total grain demand/person/year Kg 200 210 238 231 312 215 215
Gross irrigated area Mha 76 105 117 98 146 90 76
Total grain
availability/person/year Kg 208 213 240 242 312 216 206
Net irrigation requirement Km3 245 313 346 359iv 536iv 323 332
Domestic water demand/person m3/day 33 45 64 45 70 31 31
Industrial water demand/person m3/day 42 66 102 48 51 55
Total water demand Km3 680 833 900 773 1,069 811 822

10. A Pending Crisis for India
• India is rapidly running low on water resources
• Seckler et al. (1999) warned that a quarter of India’s food
harvest is at risk if the country fails to manage it
groundwater resources properly.
• The transformation of its irrigation system from surface
to groundwater has confounded good planning
• Shah describes the current groundwater irrigation set up
as “atomistic” and anarchic
• Government control and regulation is extremely limited
• Many aquifers are already over exploited
• A National River Linking Program has been proposed,
but will be expensive and environmentally contentious

11. An Australian History Lesson
15% of
Australia
Over 2 million
people
Ratio of high to low
flow in Murray is >15:1
cf 1.9:1 for the Rhine

12. The Murray-Darling Basin
• The Murray-Darling Basin has a track record of
integrated water resources management, but
overallocation was not prevented.
• Regional climate variability is a major issue. Connell
(2007) suggests that
“……a similar struggle between biophysical realities and
human ambition is underway in the Murray Darling Basin
where the process of landscape and stream modification
has proceeded apace in recent decades largely oblivious
of the need for caution or the possibility of threshold
changes to its ecological systems.”

13. Climate variability in the MDB
900
800
Extreme floods
700
600
500
400
300
200
Extreme drought
100
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

14. Irrigation growth in the Murray-Darling Basin

15. MDB
• By 1980s there was serious concern about land
degradation and river salinity
• Toxic algal blooms in the Darling River in the summer of
1991-92
• 1995: a “cap” on diversions agreed
• By turn of the century river rarely flowing into the ocean
and the basin “closed”
• The governance mechanism (MDBC) which served well
for about 80 years could not cope with issues because of
state based partisan responses and thus the Federal
Government took over the basin management (MDBA)
• 2004 onwards; very significant investment in improving
irrigation efficiency and buying back water for the
environment

16. What do these lessons tell us?
Open Basins Closed Basins
Exploiting water resources Managing Demand
New allocations Reallocating water
Who is included and excluded Safeguarding right to water
Developing groundwater Regulating groundwater
Informal, formal institutions Informal & Formal institutions
Within system conflicts Cross sectoral conflicts
Demand for water is having profound impacts on our river systems and requires
new systems of governance that deal with issues arising in closed basins
compared with those that operated previously

17. A WATER CRISIS?
• Food production is dependent on water
• There is compelling evidence that water
will be the number one constraint on
increasing food production in much of the
developing world
• Much of the world is becoming water
scarce

18. WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

19. Most hungry and poor people live where water
challenges pose a constraint to food production
20-35%
>35%
Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in
developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)

20. However the 2008 food crisis demonstrated that
food security depends on a range of factors?
• Income growth and dietary change, climate
change, high energy prices, globalization and
urbanization are transforming food consumption,
production and markets (von Braun (2008)
• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply
shocks at a time of surging demand for feed,
food and fuel have lead to drastic price
increases
• Biofuel production has further impacted the
situation and disproportionately affects the poor
through price level and volatility effects

21. SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT
ON WATER AVAILABILITY
e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and
Agricultural GDP growth
80 25
20
60
15
40 10
20 5
0
%
0
-5
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
-20 -10
-40 -15
rainfall variability -20
-60
GDP growth -25
-80 Ag GDP growth -30
year

22. Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal
production
250 800
200
National rainfall index 600
Cereal production
Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons)
150
National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm)
400
100
200
50
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-50
-200
-100
-400
-150
-600
-200
-250 -800
Years

23. KEY QUESTION
A key question is whether we have enough
water resources to grow enough food to
meet future demand for food, feed and
biofuels?
The Comprehensive Assessment answered
No,
unless ….
We change the way we think and act on
water issues.

24. Demand continues to rise

25. We have seen that several basins are already using
close to their utilizable water resources yet pressure
for more food and thus water continues to mount
What are the driving forces behind water scarcity?
• Growing population (6.7 billion now to 9.0 billion by 2050)
• Dietary change
• Urbanization
• Biofuel production
• Need for environmental water
• Climate change

26. Consumption and income 1961-2000
120
100
meat consumption
Meat
(kg/cap/yr)
80
60
China USA
40
20
0
India
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
120
100
USA
milk consumption
India
(kg/cap/yr)
80
60
40
Milk
20
0
China
10 100 1000 10000 100000
G D P p e r c a p it a ( 2 0 0 0 c o n s t a n t d o lla r s p e r y e a r )

27. BIOFUELS
Harvested area
2003 irrigated rain fed biofuels
2030 irrigated rain fed
400 Million ha 800 1200 1600
Crop water consumption
2003 irrigation directly from rain biofuels
2030 irrigation directly from rain
km3
2000 4000 6000 8000

28. Water requirements for biofuel production, but a
word of caution …..
liters of ET Liters of Irrigation
water
China 3800 2500
India 4100 3500
US 1750 300
Brazil 2250 200

29. CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty
INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES
1000
Total annual inflow (GL)
900 Annual inflow
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
1947
0 1953
1965
1941
1959
1971
1977
1995
2001
2004
1935
1989
1923
1929
1983
1911
1917
1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)
Source: WA Water Corporation.

30. Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley, Victoria
Australia
Temperature
For recent climate and
current development
• Last 10 years have
seen a 11% and 26%
reduction in rainfall
and runoff.
• Translation of this
into a developing
country scenario
could portend
catastrophy

31. Sectoral water consumption is
increasing due to increased demand
Demand will double in the next 40 years

32. A CALL TO ACTION - WHAT CAN WE DO?

33. Water storage improves water and food security
Reservoir Storage per Capita (m3/cap), 2003
“Irrigation” has
7,000
dominated public 5,961
6,000
investment in 4,717
5,000
agriculture in Asia.
4,000
3,386
3,000
Very little water 2,486
2,000
storage has been 687 1,104 1,277
built in Africa. 1,000
38
-
Irrigated area is
na
nd
il
ia
ca
lia
o
a
az
ic
ic
op
i
la
ra
ri
Ch
ex
er
Br
Af
ai
hi
st
Am
M
only 7% of arable Th
Et
Au
h
ut
rth
So
No
land (3.7% in SSA).
Source: World Bank

34. RETHINK STORAGE
• Renewed interest in storage infrastructure
for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan
Africa
• Explore wide range of options: large scale
reservoirs, small village ponds,
groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil
moisture storage), virtual storage (food)
• Diversity of storage options within a basin
• Storage creation processes determine
who benefits
• New hydropower schemes and their
impacts will be inevitable

35. REVITALIZE IRRIGATION
2.5 320
World Bank lending for
irrigation 280
2.0
Irrigated Area
240
?
200
1.5
160
1.0
Food price index
120
Living Planet Index
Freshwater Species
80
0.5
40
0 0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
How to avoid?

36. Increasing Water Productivity
Figure 4: Standardise d Gross Value of Production pe r unit wate r consume d by ETcrop
0.7
0.6
0.5
3
US dollar per m
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
* surf ace wat er and pub lic wells ** privat e wells

37. Water losses
60% on farm
loss made up
of:
• 24% water
management
loss (dams,
evaporation)
25% 15% channel • 36% by plants
conveyance distribution (14% loss to soil
loss in River loss and 22% direct
plant use)

38. Gains in productivity have to be made in the
rainfed sector as well
Can we use small scale supplementary
irrigation to “insure” yields and increase
productivity?

39. Turn waste water into a valuable
resource
Livestock
Wastewater Milk
irrigation (Meat)
Fodder Public Health
Ground water Farmer
Laborer
Rice Consumer
Soil Vegetables
Short term and Long term health impacts

40. REFORM WATER GOVERNANCE
• By demonstrating that evidence based policy and
management works best
• By providing options for policies and institutional reform
• By proactive policy development that encourages trade
in virtual water
• By improved determination of water rights
• By better valuation and pricing of water that protects the
rights of the poor
• By improved management systems that are equitable
and gender friendly

41. Do we have the right incentives in place?
• There are major losses between storages and plant
growth in irrigation systems
• There are many ways in which these losses can be
reduced
• At the system level, government can recoup water by
reducing leakages (but lost water often goes into
groundwater and is subsequently used)
• At the farm level unless water is well regulated efficiency
gains are often used to extend the area irrigated
• This may help food production, but it often does not lead
to water going to the highest value users

42. The role of water footprinting
• Useful tool for understanding the impact of agriculture,
urban areas or industry on the water resource base
• Needs to be coupled with active responses including
productivity improvement, demand management, change
in personal water consuming habits
• It may help industry make choices on how to organize
supply chains that have the least environmental impact
• Ideally, footprinting information meeds to lead to policy
responses that recognize the differential value of water
from different sources (e.g maize grown in rainfed areas
is more environmentally appropriate than maize irrigated
from non-sutainable groundwater)

43. Changing the way we look at water
• We need to move to governance systems where water rights are
defined, water can thus be valued/priced and trading allowed
• Similarly water allocations to users need to be established,
regulated and policed to maintain use of surface and groundwater at
sustainable levels
• Government could then buy back water for environmental uses, and
urban and industrial users can buy water from agriculture
• This will provide financial incentives for all to use water wisely and to
strive for productivity gains.
• Of course, the poor need their water rights defined and basic needs
for drinking, washing etc would be separately identified

44. Trading Water
From this .... To this ….

45. IF WE CAN CHANGE THE WAY WE DO
BUSINESS WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER
Today
Practices like today
CA Scenario
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading
rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

46. CONCLUSIONS
• No doubt that we have a water crisis
• Given current projections of food and water
demand we can possibly avert future food crises
• Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is
vital, but requires major productivity increases
and underpinning water reform
• The impacts of climate change are still
uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC
will also be relevant to the impacts of the other
drivers of water scarcity