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Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
              College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                                      Chapter 07

                                                                   選擇創新專案

                                                                                  Presented by Group 06
                                                                                        B97701211 廖文凱
                                                                                        B97701215 黃冠隆
                                                                                        B97701231 何        欣
                                                                                        B97701248 葉仁智

 Course Lecturer: Prof. J. T. Chiang
 Teaching Assistant: Hsuan-Yi Wu (Jen)

2011/11/1                                Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   1
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                         AGENDA
   •    概要
   •    研發預算
   •    選擇專案的量化方法
   •    選擇專案的質化方法
   •    結合量化與質化資訊




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   2
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                                    概要
   • 開發專案昂貴費時,且大多具有風險,公司必須
     審慎的選擇出值得投資的專案。




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   3
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                          研發預算
   • 在資本限額下,公司必須在多個有價值的專案中
     作出選擇。在不同產業中,公司投入研發的資源
     也有所差異。




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   4
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
             College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                      選擇專案的量化方法
   • 折現現金流量法
            – 評估已知風險下,未來預期的收益是否可支持支出
            – 最常用的兩個方法
             • 淨現值法 (Net Present Value)
             • 內部報酬率 (Internal Return Rate)
   • 實質選擇權 (Real Options)
            – 以股票選擇權的財務模型來評估專案價值




2011/11/1                               Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   5
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                              淨現值法(NPV)
   • 淨現值 = 目前的現金流入價值 – 目前的現金流出價值




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   6
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                            內部報酬率(IRR)
   • 內部報酬率是使投資淨現值為零的折線率
   • 將IRR與所需的報酬率做比較便可做為決定是否投
     資的衡量準則




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   7
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                      實質選擇權
   • 股票買權(Call Option):投資者擁有在未來以特
     定價格購買股票的權利。




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   8
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University



                                      實質選擇權
   • 開發專案的成本可視為買權價格
   • 未來投資於開發專案的成本可視為履約價格
   • 研發投資的報酬類似買權的股票價格




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                   9
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                     選擇專案的質化方法
   • 過濾問題
   • 整合性專案規劃架構
   • Q分類




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  10
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
             College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                           過濾問題
   • 討論專案的潛在成本與利益

   • 消費者的角色
            – 市場、使用、相容性和易於使用性、銷售與定價
   • 能力角色
            – 既有能力、競爭者的能力、未來能力
   • 專案的時機與成本
            – 時機、成本因素

2011/11/1                               Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  11
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
             College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                      整合性專案規劃架構
   • 許多公司發現,根據風險程度、資源投入與現金
     流量時機等因素來分析歸納研發投資組合是有價
     值的
   • 使用專案地圖可將開發專案分成四種類型
            – 先進研發型專案、突破型專案、平台型專案、衍生型
              專案




2011/11/1                               Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  12
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University



                                          專案地圖




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  13
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
             College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                           專案地圖
   • 先進研發型專案
            – 是商業化開發專案的前導,為開發領先的策略性科技之必要
              因素
   • 突破型專案
            – 是涉及革命性新產品和製程技術的產品開發專案
   • 平台型專案
            – 提供比前一世代科技在成本、品質和效能上較基本的改善
   • 衍生型專案
            – 為產品或流程的漸進改良


2011/11/1                               Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  14
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                               Q分類
   • Q分類是一種針對不同構面的對象或概念進行排
     序的簡單方法
   • 群體根據個人對專案的看法進行多次的討論,可
     以對最佳專案達成共識




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  15
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                     結合量化與質化資訊
   • 聯合分析
   • 資料包絡分析法




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  16
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University




                                          聯合分析
   • 最常用來評估不同產品屬性對消費者的相對重要
     性,將這些價質運用於開發和定價決策上
   • 聯合分析將權重以統計方式推演出來,使複雜且
     具決定性之主觀評估分解成不同指標下相對重要
     的量化分數




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  17
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University



                                          聯合分析




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  18
Department of Business Administration               Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
            College of Management                                         Melissa A. Schilling, New York University



                             資料包絡分析法
   • 評估潛在專案的方法,是一種根據多元決策指標,
     並將這些指標與假設的效率前緣線進行比較之專
     案排序方法




2011/11/1                              Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology                                  19

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Management of Technological Innovation 3rd Edition Ch7 選擇創新專案

  • 1. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University Chapter 07 選擇創新專案 Presented by Group 06 B97701211 廖文凱 B97701215 黃冠隆 B97701231 何 欣 B97701248 葉仁智 Course Lecturer: Prof. J. T. Chiang Teaching Assistant: Hsuan-Yi Wu (Jen) 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 1
  • 2. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University AGENDA • 概要 • 研發預算 • 選擇專案的量化方法 • 選擇專案的質化方法 • 結合量化與質化資訊 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 2
  • 3. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 概要 • 開發專案昂貴費時,且大多具有風險,公司必須 審慎的選擇出值得投資的專案。 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 3
  • 4. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 研發預算 • 在資本限額下,公司必須在多個有價值的專案中 作出選擇。在不同產業中,公司投入研發的資源 也有所差異。 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 4
  • 5. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 選擇專案的量化方法 • 折現現金流量法 – 評估已知風險下,未來預期的收益是否可支持支出 – 最常用的兩個方法 • 淨現值法 (Net Present Value) • 內部報酬率 (Internal Return Rate) • 實質選擇權 (Real Options) – 以股票選擇權的財務模型來評估專案價值 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 5
  • 6. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 淨現值法(NPV) • 淨現值 = 目前的現金流入價值 – 目前的現金流出價值 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 6
  • 7. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 內部報酬率(IRR) • 內部報酬率是使投資淨現值為零的折線率 • 將IRR與所需的報酬率做比較便可做為決定是否投 資的衡量準則 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 7
  • 8. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 實質選擇權 • 股票買權(Call Option):投資者擁有在未來以特 定價格購買股票的權利。 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 8
  • 9. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 實質選擇權 • 開發專案的成本可視為買權價格 • 未來投資於開發專案的成本可視為履約價格 • 研發投資的報酬類似買權的股票價格 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 9
  • 10. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 選擇專案的質化方法 • 過濾問題 • 整合性專案規劃架構 • Q分類 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 10
  • 11. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 過濾問題 • 討論專案的潛在成本與利益 • 消費者的角色 – 市場、使用、相容性和易於使用性、銷售與定價 • 能力角色 – 既有能力、競爭者的能力、未來能力 • 專案的時機與成本 – 時機、成本因素 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 11
  • 12. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 整合性專案規劃架構 • 許多公司發現,根據風險程度、資源投入與現金 流量時機等因素來分析歸納研發投資組合是有價 值的 • 使用專案地圖可將開發專案分成四種類型 – 先進研發型專案、突破型專案、平台型專案、衍生型 專案 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 12
  • 13. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 專案地圖 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 13
  • 14. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 專案地圖 • 先進研發型專案 – 是商業化開發專案的前導,為開發領先的策略性科技之必要 因素 • 突破型專案 – 是涉及革命性新產品和製程技術的產品開發專案 • 平台型專案 – 提供比前一世代科技在成本、品質和效能上較基本的改善 • 衍生型專案 – 為產品或流程的漸進改良 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 14
  • 15. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University Q分類 • Q分類是一種針對不同構面的對象或概念進行排 序的簡單方法 • 群體根據個人對專案的看法進行多次的討論,可 以對最佳專案達成共識 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 15
  • 16. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 結合量化與質化資訊 • 聯合分析 • 資料包絡分析法 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 16
  • 17. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 聯合分析 • 最常用來評估不同產品屬性對消費者的相對重要 性,將這些價質運用於開發和定價決策上 • 聯合分析將權重以統計方式推演出來,使複雜且 具決定性之主觀評估分解成不同指標下相對重要 的量化分數 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 17
  • 18. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 聯合分析 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 18
  • 19. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University 資料包絡分析法 • 評估潛在專案的方法,是一種根據多元決策指標, 並將這些指標與假設的效率前緣線進行比較之專 案排序方法 2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 19